Monday's Late Tips
By Judd Hall
Monday will start the work week for many of you fine folks out there. It will also kick off several new series in Major League Baseball. We could harp about a quick two-game series between the Yanks and Red Sox in the Bronx. But with due respect to fans of both clubs, we’ll see enough of those two on ESPN to make us stab our eyes out. So let’s focus on some games between teams out West.
Giants (20-15, +262) at Padres (22-14, +990) – 10:05 p.m. EDT
The Giants were expected to be one of the top teams in the National League West this season based on their starting pitching. That unit has gone 16-9 with a 2.76 earned run average heading into Sunday’s battles. And during its first two games at AT&T Park with the Astros, San Francisco’s Todd Wellemeyer and Tim Lincecum combined for 15.1 innings of work. Needless to say that both of those contests were wins for the Orange and Black.
Matt Cain (2-2, 3.38) will be making his eighth start of the year to open up this short two-game set. He’s pitched quite well for San Fran this season. The Giants’ bullpen, on the other hand, feels like they have to cough up runs after he gives them a good outing. They have allowed seven runs after Cain has been sent to the showers in 2010.
San Diego was supposed to screwing around in the basement of the NL West right now. Instead, the Padres are holding a 1 ½-game lead over San Francisco. The Pads are only hitting .237 as a team, crossing the plate 150 times this season. What they do have is strong efforts coming from their hurlers. San Diego’s starters have a composite 2.76 ERA, while its reliever’s ERA is 2.70 with opponents hitting .190 against them.
That kind of backup from the ‘pen will no doubt make Clayton Richard (2-2, 4.52) feel a bit more comfortable taking to the mound at Petco Park. Richard has won two of his last three starts. The most recent outing for the Pads’ southpaw saw him give up two earned runs on seven hits in seven innings of work in a 5-2 road win against San Fran on May 12.
Most betting shops have posted the Giants as $1.35 road favorites (risk $135 to win $100) with a total of 6 ½.
The Padres have been involved in a lot of low scoring affairs recently, watching the ‘under’ go 9-1 in their last 10 contests. San Francisco has seen the ‘over’ go on a 5-1 run in its past six games on the road.
San Fran has won two of its last three road fixtures against lefties. Over the last two seasons, however, the Giants are 18-33 when facing southpaws away from home.
In games as road faves against left-handers, the Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 9-3 since 2009.
Angels (17-21, -519) at Rangers (20-17, +70) – 10:05 p.m. EDT
Nolan Ryan said that the Rangers were fully capable of winning 92 games in highly competitive American League West. Texas is sitting in first place in the division right now, but are on pace to win 88 games – one more win than they had in 2009. Not exactly where Ryan wants them, but I’m sure he’d take another winning campaign.
Texas will be happy to get back home after having a tough series at the Rogers Centre against the Blue Jays. The Rangers’ pitching staff has a nice case of whiplash after surrendering 22 runs in the first two games of their series with Toronto.
The Rangers will look to Derek Holland (1-0, 0.00) for another strong performance at home. Holland gave up no runs while striking out seven batters in six innings of work in Texas’ 10-1 win over the Athletics at the Ballpark in Arlington.
Los Angeles has taken some time to find its groove this season, only registering one five-game win streak so far. One thing the Halos will have to figure out again is how to win on the road. The Angels have gone 2-8 in their last 10 tests away from Anaheim.
Scott Kazmir (2-3, 6.82) is in desperate need of a good outing on Monday night. He’s been tattooed by the opposition for a .287 batting average…easily the worst number of his career. Kazmir is barely lasting five innings in his last three starts of the year for the Halos with an ERA of 6.56. The odds are against Kazmir in this contest as he’s been awful recently on the road. In his last four starts as a visitor, he is 0-2 with an 8.51 ERA.
The oddsmakers have installed the Rangers as $1.45 home favorites with a total of nine.
Los Angeles has done well over the last two seasons as a road pup versus left-handed pitching, evidenced by a 20-14 mark. However, they have dropped five of its last six games in this spot. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in those recent contests.
The Rangers are 24-14 as home faves against southpaws since 2009. This season, Texas has won three of its last four under this situation. The ‘under’ is 21-14-3 over the last two campaigns.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (21-15) at San Diego (22-15)
The Giants will try to take over first place in the N.L. West when they send veteran right-hander Matt Cain (2-2, 3.28 ERA) to the mound at Petco Park in San Diego against Padres’ lefty Clayton Richard (2-2, 3.21).
After getting swept by the Padres at home to start last week, the Giants turned around and swept a three-game set from the Astros, capped by Sunday’s 4-3 victory. San Francisco is on streaks of 20-9 as a favorite, 19-7 in series openers, 6-2 as a road chalk and 6-1 on Monday.
San Diego returned home off a 5-1 road trip and got swept by the Dodgers, including a 1-0 loss on Sunday, managing just four runs in the three-game series. The Padres have no dropped five straight home games, but they remain on surges of 19-10 overall, 7-3 in series openers and 20-8 against winning teams.
The Padres are 6-0 against San Francisco this year, allowing just eight runs in the six games. San Diego has also won 10 of the last 12 clashes at Petco Park, including a three-game sweep last month.
Cain squared off against the Padres and Richard on Wednesday, giving up five runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 5-2 loss. He is 2-1 with a 2.91 ERA in his last three starts, and while the Giants have won four of Cain’s last five starts when he’s coming off four days off, they’ve lost seven of his last 10 as a favorite, 19 of his last 26 when he faces winning teams and six of his last seven against the N.L. West.
Additionally, San Francisco is 3-12 in Cain’s last 15 starts versus the Padres, against whom the right-hander is 4-7 with a 3.12 ERA in 20 starts, including 1-4 with a 2.89 ERA in nine contests at Petco Park. This will be his third start against San Diego this season and he has yet to get a victory, allowing a combined seven runs on 13 hits in 13 2/3 innings (4.61 ERA).
Richard allowed two runs on seven hits in seven innings in Wednesday’s 5-2 victory over Cain in San Francisco. He is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three outings and 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA at home this year. In two starts against the Giants this season, he has allowed a combined three runs on 14 hits in 13 1/3 innings (2.03 ERA), and the Padres won both contests. For his career, Richard is 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA in three games against San Francisco (17 1/3 innings).
When Richard throws, the Padres are on streaks of 8-3 at home, 4-1 when he’s a home ‘dog and 5-0 when he faces winning teams.
The Giants are on “under” runs of 3-1-2 overall, 9-1-1 against N.L. West teams and 6-2 on the road against left-handers, and behind Cain the under is on surges of 9-4 on the road, 10-3 as a road favorite, 7-3 when he’s coming off four days of rest. The Padres are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 38-18-4 overall (8-0-1 last nine), 3-0 at home, 35-16-2 against N.L. West teams, 5-0-1 against right-handers, 20-7-1 against winning teams, 6-2-3 in Richard’s last 11 starts overall and 5-0-3 in his last eight as an underdog.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under has cashed in 15 of the last 21 meetings – going 7-0-1 in the last eight – and five straight battles in San Diego have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (19-19) at N.Y. Yankees (24-13)
Baseball’s biggest rivalry resumes at Yankee Stadium when the Red Sox and Yankees kick off a three-game series with Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 6.35 ERA) scheduled to pitch for the visitors opposite Philip Hughes (5-0, 1.38 ERA).
Both teams lost Sunday, with the Red Sox falling in Detroit 5-1, while the Yankees were tripped up at home by the Twins 6-3. Boston has dropped three of its last four and is in further slumps of 1-5 on the road, 9-19 against A.L. East teams and 6-18 against winning teams.
New York has dropped five of eight overall, but it remains on positive runs of 50-12 at home, 44-11 against right-handers at home, 44-15 against A.L. East teams and 44-19 against winning teams.
This is the third series between these rivals this season, but the first in New York. The Yankees have won four of the six meetings, including two of three 10 days ago at Fenway Park. New York is 13-3 in the last 16 series clashes, and it has beaten the Red Sox seven straight times inside Yankee Stadium.
Matsuzaka is making just his fourth start of the season, and he’s coming off his best outing to date as he limited the Blue Jays to one run on three hits in seven innings while striking out nine in a 6-1 victory Tuesday. In his seven career starts against the Yankees, he is 3-3 with a 5.49 ERA.
With Matsuzaka on the hill, the Red Sox are on runs of 38-15 overall, 17-6 on the road, 8-1 against winning teams, 22-8 when he gets five days off and 13-6 when he faces A.L. East opponents.
Hughes has won each of his last three starts, compiling a 0.86 ERA, allowing two runs in 21 innings. The Yankees have won eight of his last 10 starts dating back to last year and he has not allowed an opponent to score more than two runs in any outing this season. On Wednesday, he blanked the Tigers on five hits over seven innings of an 8-0 win. Also, Hughes shut down the Red Sox on May 7, allowing two runs on seven hits in seven innings of a 10-3 win.
With Hughes pitching, the Yankees have won five straight against winning teams, five straight when he gets four days off and four of five at home against winning teams.
The Red Sox are on “over” runs of 6-3-1 overall, 20-8-2 in series openers, 7-3-1 against winning teams and 4-0 on Monday, but behind Matsuzaka they’re on “under” streaks of 15-7 on the road and 6-1 when he faces a winning team. The Yankees carry “under” trends of 6-1 overall, 22-7 when they face winning teams at home and 8-2-2 on Monday, but they’ve topped the total in five of seven when Hughes gets four days off and four straight when Hughes faces A.L. East teams
Finally, in this rivalry, the over has been the play in five of the six clashes this season, but the “under” has cashed in five of the last six battles in the Bronx.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
MLB RoundUp For 5/17
By Dan Bebe
National League
Pirates @ Phillies (-215) with a total of 11
Ryan Church is 5-for-9 with a HR off Kendrick;
Shane Victorino is 2-for-5 with a HR and 2 RBI off Morton.
This line is awfully expensive for a starter, Kendrick, that sports an ERA near 6. He has pitched well against the Pirates in the few times he's seen them, so that's something. Fact of the matter, though, is that with a wild child on the mound for Pittsburgh, Morton (he's 1-6 with a 9.19 ERA) isn't going to give you any value on the other side. Pass.
D'backs @ Marlins (-155) with a total of 9
Chris Snyder has homered in 2 AB off Volstad.
I'm still waiting on some stats on Jackson, who has been a bit of a disappointment so far for the D'backs. On the Marlins side, Volstad at -150 is not a good deal, at all. They're hitting the ball well lately, but Volstad is 1-1 against the D'backs in his career with a 6.35 ERA, so not his favorite team to face, and really has been quite middle of the road this season. Very tiny lean to Arizona, just because Jackson hasn't faced Florida much, but I'm not a fan of fading Florida when those bats are heating up.
Brewers @ Reds with a total of N/A
Prince Fielder is 6-for-14 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Cueto;
Corey Hart is 4-for-13 with 2 HR off Cueto;
Jay Bruce is 2-for-4 with a HR and 3 RBI off Gallardo;
Scott Rolen is a perfect 3-for-3 with a HR and 2 RBI off Gallardo;
Brandon Phillips is 4-for-13 with a HR off Gallardo.
I'm not seeing a line on this one tonight, for whatever reason. But I'm willing to go on the record without a line and say that I can't trust the Brewers right now. They're slumping severely, and the Reds are rolling. If you don't like the Reds at first glance, you're a mad man. Both pitchers have been decent against this opponent, but I think you have to lean to the hot team without even thinking twice.
Mets @ Braves (-130) with a total of 8.5
Luis Castillo is 8-for-15 with 4 RBI off Lowe since '05;
David Wright is 7-for-16 with 3 RBI off Lowe since '05;
Chipper Jones is 6-for-18 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Pelfrey;
Brian McCann is 12-for-27 with a HR and 7 RBI off Pelfrey;
Martin Prado is 4-for-9 with a HR off Pelfrey.
This is a matchup of two guys that have struggled mightily against this particular opponent. I guess my concern is why this number is only 8.5, and that won't be allayed until the morning, at the very earliest. Pelfrey is a lifetime 3-5, 5.58 ERA guy against Atlanta, and Lowe has a career ERA near 7.50 against the Mets, and hasn't pitched all that well this season. We'll check out some more of their recent starts for confirmation, but this Over looks good AT FIRST GLANCE.
Rockies @ Cubs (-155) with a total of N/A
Todd Helton is 2-for-3 with a pair of RBI off Wells;
Mike Fontenot is 3-for-10 with 2 RBI off Cook;
Derrek Lee is 4-for-11 off Cook.
Randy Wells struggled the one time he faced the Rockies, but you can't overstate the impact of venue. Aaron Cook has a nice history against the Cubs, going 3-1 with a 3.62 ERA, though his work in 2010 leaves a little something to be desired. The Cubs are clearly struggling like crazy right now, but can we trust Cook to get the job done? He's been allowing 3-5 runs pretty consistently in almost every one of his starts. Tough call, here.
Nationals @ Cardinals (-155) with a total of 9
Adam Kennedy is 7-for-13 with 4 RBI off Lohse since '05;
Pudge is 8-for-24 with 3 RBI off Lohse since '05;
Matt Holliday is 1-for-2 with a HR off Stammen.
Lohse continues to struggle, and the Cardinals continue to have issues with the bats. I'm a little concerned here, since Stammen isn't exactly mister consistency, but there's no arguing that the Cardinals are a nice fade right now.
Giants (-135) @ Padres with a total of 6.5
Forget the player stats, this one is all about the fact that these two guys are going to be squaring off for the third time already, and we're only in May! So far, Richard has won both meetings, or his team has, at least. Cain hasn't pitched well against the Padres, either, especially in his most recent effort, walking 6 men, allowing 5 runs, and really not putting his weak-hitting team in a position to win. Richard has pitched very well against the Giants this year after not doing much against them in 2009, but these 3rd-time-around situations are really scary for the side that won the first two. I have to lean to Cain, despite the inflated number.
Astros @ Dodgers (-175) with a total of 8
Wandy has been lights out against the Dodgers, posting a 2.70 ERA against them in his career, and there's really no one on the current Dodgers roster with any marked success against Rodriguez. The 'Stros are awful, there's no question, and Wandy is not quite himself so far this year; the Dodgers are hot, winning 7 straight, and posting 2 straight sweeps, and we're getting a decent price with Ely compared to some of the other guys, but I just can't pay this kind of price when Wandy could very well hold them to a low, low score. The Dodgers hit righties much better than lefties, too, so another point of concern, here.
American League
Red Sox @ Yankees (-215) with a total of 9.5
Mike Lowell was 2-for-5 with a HR off Hughes before 2010;
Derek Jeter is 6-for-14 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Matsuzaka;
Jorge Posada is 6-for-12 with 2 RBI off Matsuzaka;
Nick Swisher is 3-for-10 off Matsuzaka.
Who figured the Yankees would be laying 215 to the Red Sox in mid-May? Not I. Phil Hughes has been a man possessed so far this year, and Daisuke was horrible to start the year before storming back in his last start. Does that mean he's going to lock it down against New York? Potentially. As far as value plays go, if indeed Daisuke is turning a corner, this is the best value we'll get - it's just a shame it has to come in a game the Sox don't have a great shot of winning. Slight, tiny, itty bitty lean to Boston.
White Sox @ Tigers (-145) with a total of 9
Gordon Beckham, struggling this year, homered the only time he's seen Porcello;
Paul Konerko is 2-for-3 with a HR and 2 RBI off Porcello;
Mark Teahen is just 2-for-8 off Porcello, but both hits have left the yard;
Miguel Cabrera is 5-for-11 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Garcia since '05;
Magglio Ordonez is 10-for-27 off Garcia since '05.
For those unaware, every time the White Sox head to Detroit, they seem to crank things up just a tad. That being said, the Tigers are playing great baseball right now. They took 3 of 4 from the Yanks, 2 of 3 from the Red Sox, and now take aim at a significantly weaker club. I'm a little concerned about this one, as Garcia has been pretty reliable this year, and Porcello is JUST starting to show signs of breaking out of his early season sophomore slump. The price just feels a little high on a guy with a 6.08 ERA.
Royals @ Orioles (-140) with a total of 9
David DeJesus is 2-for-4 off Bergesen.
Kyle Davies has poor numbers against Baltimore, lifetime, at 1-1, 7.94, but those don't appear to be logged against the current Orioles. Anyone with more than 6 AB against Davies has an average of .250 or lower. The 9th inning collapse of Baltimore seemed to sting a bit, and they looked bad in the finale against the Indians. I just can't be convinced to lay -140 with Bergesen, a 5.76 ERA starter, against anyone, especially with the Royals playing a little harder off the managerial change. No thanks.
Twins (-125) @ Blue Jays with a total of 9.5
Aaron Hill is 4-for-8 off Slowey;
Adam Lind is 5-for-8 off Slowey;
Lyle Overbay is 4-for-8 with a HR and 4 RBI off Slowey;
Travis Snider is 4-for-5 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Slowey;
Vernon Wells is 3-for-8 with a HR and 4 RBI off Slowey.
Dana Eveland continues to pitch well against everyone besides the Boston Red Sox, and Kevin Slowey continues to be the weak link in the Twins rotation. This price almost seems too tasty for the Jays, but then I have to remember that we're talking about the Jays. Slowey has an ERA of 6.23 and an 0-2 record against Toronto, so this seems like as good a time as any to fade the Twinkies.
Indians @ Rays (-200) with a total of 8.5
Asdrubal Cabrera is 2-for-2 off Niemann.
It's a little bit of a wonder how Carmona has a 7.64 ERA against the Rays, as the current Tampa Bay lineup hasn't done much of anything against him. Leadoff man Jason Bartlett is 0-for-15! Still, Carmona has been slowing a little after an outstanding start, and Niemann is quietly one of the best in the AL. The Indians are playing a little better lately, but not quite well enough to warrant this big of a longshot.
Angels @ Rangers (-145) with a total of 9
Erick Aybar is 5-for-11 with a HR off Holland;
Hideki Matsui is 4-for-7 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Holland;
Vlad Guerrero is 4-for-11 off Kazmir since '05.
Holland was lights out in the Minors, so Texas yanked him back up to the Bigs, and he pitched shutout ball in his first start of 2010. He did have some issues in 2009 with the Angels, going 2-2 with a 5.26 ERA, but it seems like he's ironed out a few things between seasons, and has a ton of confidence. Kazmir has a lifetime 6-1 record against Texas, but his 6.82 ERA this year makes me think those career numbers don't mean a whole lot. I'd love to back the Angels here, but unless Kazmir brings his "A" game, that's a stressful side to like.
Mariners @ Athletics (-145) with a total of 8
Jose Lopez is 5-for-10 with a HR and 4 RBI off Gonzalez;
Ichiro is 3-for-9 off Gonzalez with 1 RBI;
Kurt Suzuki is 6-for-15 off Rowland-Smith;
Gabe Gross is 2-for-3 with a HR off R-Smith.
Neither of these guys has done much against the other this year, as Rowland-Smith faced Oakland twice in April, and the Mariners lost both of those games. He pitched, let's say, "okay", but not good at all. Gonzalez only went 4.2 innings when he faced the Mariners - he allowed just 2 runs, but that's not a long enough start. The problem here is that Rowland-Smith has a high ERA, so the line is going to be inflated on the A's, even if they're a good side. Microscopic lean to the A's just because I think they win this game, but not sure about laying that -145.
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Mariners at Athletics – The Mariners are 0-9 since May 06, 2009 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $935 when playing against. The Athletics are 6-0 since April 13, 2009 at home after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $650
Twins at Blue Jays – The Twins are 8-0 since September 13, 2009 as a favorite when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $800. The Blue Jays are 0-7 since April 17, 2009 after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $760 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 0-7 since July 21, 2009 as a home dog and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $700 when playing against.
Mets at Braves – The Mets are 0-6 since June 29, 2009 on the road when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The Braves are 9-0 since April 07, 2009 after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $900. The Braves are 7-0 since September 15, 2009 after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $700.
Nationals at Cardinals – The Cardinals are 8-0 since July 01, 2009 as a home favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $800. The Cardinals are 7-0 since May 06, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700.
Rockies at Cubs – The Rockies are 0-8 since July 18, 2009 on the road when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $915 when playing against. The Cubs are 8-0 since June 07, 2009 when Randy Wells starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $800. The Cubs are 0-4 since July 04, 2009 as a home favorite after a one run win for a net profit of $630 when playing against.
Astros at Dodgers – The Astros are 0-7 since September 20, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Astros are 0-7 since April 12, 2009 when Wandy Rodriguez starts on the road after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $705 when playing against. The Dodgers are 0-4 since August 23, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after scoring 3 runs or less and winning for a net profit of $630 when playing against.
Diamondbacks at Marlins – The Diamondbacks are 0-10 since June 20, 2009 on the road after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Marlins are 8-0 since September 12, 2009 when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $920. The Marlins are 0-6 since May 20, 2009 when Christopher Volstad starts at home vs a team that lost their starters last two starts for a net profit of $815 when playing against.
Royals at Orioles – The Orioles are 9-0 since April 21, 2009 when Bradley Bergesen starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $955.
Giants at Padres – The Giants are 0-5 since August 03, 2009 when Matt Cain starts as a road favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $570 when playing against. The Padres are 9-0 since May 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $945
Pirates at Phillies – The Pirates are 0-5 since July 23, 2009 when Charlie Morton starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $500 when playing against. The Phillies are 0-5 since July 24, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $855 when playing against.
Angels at Rangers – The Rangers are 0-5 since June 20, 2009 when Derek Holland starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters at home for a net profit of $500 when playing against.
Indians at Rays – The Indians are 0-9 since August 14, 2009 as a road 140+ dog and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Indians are 7-0 since May 14, 2009 after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $860.
Brewers at Reds – The Brewers are 0-6 since July 07, 2009 when Yovani Gallardo starts after losing as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $730 when playing against. The Reds are 0-8 since April 24, 2009 after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $825 when playing against.
White Sox at Tigers – The White Sox are 5-0 since May 25, 2009 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $630. The Tigers are 0-4 since May 23, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $690 when playing against.
Red Sox at Yankees – The Red Sox are 12-1 since June 09, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1090. The Yankees are 0-7 since August 15, 2007 when Philip Hughes starts as a favorite after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $970 when playing against.