Monday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Joe Saunders (3-5, 4.42 ERA) Los Angeles Angels
Despite getting off to a miserable 1-5 start to the season, Saunders has been on fire in his last three starts, going 2-0 with a miniscule 0.81 ERA during the stretch.
After going 0-3 with an 8.31 ERA in his previous four starts, Saunders threw just the second complete-game shutout of his career, outdueling Dallas Braden after his perfect game with a four-hit gem of his own against the Oakland A's on May 14.
"I don't know who was wearing Joe's uniform earlier in the year, but that's what we're used to," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said after the game. "He pitched a terrific game."
The southpaw showed it wasn't a fluke by following it up with a 3-2 win over the Chicago White Sox last week.Saunders has allowed just two earned runs over his last 22 1/3 innings.
Saunders got his only win in the month of April against these same Blue Jays, throwing eight innings without allowing an earned run.
Slumping
John Danks (3-3, 2.26 ERA) Chicago White Sox
With the possible exception of Roy Oswalt, no pitcher has been a bigger hard-luck loser lately than Danks, who is 0-3 over his last three starts despite a solid 2.91 ERA during that span.
Danks came out on the short end of 3-2 losses to the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins in his two most recent outings and started the slide with a 2-0 defeat to the Toronto Blue Jays. His latest loss to L.A. was a real heartbreaker, allowing a two-run homer to Torii Hunter that proved the difference.
"Basically, he made one mistake all game and Torii didn't miss it," White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski said of Danks. "Other than that, [Danks] was lights-out. We outhit them, 6-3, and found a way to lose. It's a shame. The way he's throwing the ball, he should have five, six or seven wins. He has been pretty money for us all year."
Danks' combined seven earned runs over 21 2/3 innings resulted in three straight defeats despite the fact that he allowed the same number of hits as he had strikeouts (18) and carried a 1.15 WHIP in that stretch.
Boston (24-21) at Tampa Bay (32-12)
The Red Sox, winners of five of their last six, head to Tropicana Field for a key three-game set with right-hander Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.26 ERA) on the hill opposite the Rays’ Wade Davis (4-3, 3.35).
Boston took two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend, capped by Sunday’s 8-3 victory. Still, the Red Sox remain just 4-7 in their last 11 road games and 8-20 in their last 28 on the road against teams with a winning percentage of .600.
Tampa, which has the best record in baseball and leads Boston by 8½ games in the A.L. East, has won eight of its last nine, including four of five on a road trip that ended Sunday with a 10-6 win in Houston. The Rays are on several hot streaks, including 38-14 overall, 123-56 at home, 23-6 against A.L. East teams and 12-5 in series openers.
The Rays swept a four-game set in mid-April in Boston, dominating the Red Sox in outscoring them 24-9. Also, the Rays have taken 17 of the last 23 series clashes in Tampa (playoffs included).
Buchholz is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in three road starts this season, allowing just four earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. He’s coming off Wednesday’s 3-2 home win over Minnesota, allowing two runs on five hits in eight innings, striking out seven and walking just one. With Buchholz on the hill, the Red Sox are just 2-8 on the road against winning teams, but 7-0 in his last seven road starts, 7-0 in his last seven series openers, 9-3 in his last 12 after four days off and 7-3 in his last 10 against A.L. East teams.
Buccholz faced the Rays on April 17 and gave up four runs (none earned) on three hits over five innings, but suffered the 6-5 home loss. He’s 2-2 with a 2.01 ERA in five career starts versus Tampa
Davis beat the Yankees on Wednesday in the Bronx, giving up two runs on seven hits over 5 2/3 innings of a 10-6 victory. Tampa has won five of his last seven starts, including an April 16 win in Boston when he gave up one run on two hits over five innings of a 3-1 victory. In his only previous career start against the Red Sox – last September at Fenway Park – Davis got rocked, allowing eight runs in 2 2/3 innings of a 9-1 loss.
Davis is 2-2 with a 4.12 ERA in four starts at The Trop this season.
For the Red Sox, the under is on surges of 23-7-1 as road ‘dogs, 33-17-3 as ‘dogs anywhere and 4-1-1 when Buchholz starts as a pup, but they are on “over” runs of 5-0 on Monday, 5-2-2 in series openers, 8-3-1 in Buchholz’s last 12 starts overall and 4-1 when Buchholz pitches on Monday.
Tampa has stayed below the total in 15 of 22 overall, eight straight at home, five of seven in series openers and 35 of 55 at home against losing teams, but the Rays are also on “over” streaks of 10-3 on Monday and 5-1 against A.L. East teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over has cashed in three of the last four matchups in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
Chicago White Sox (18-25, -1,118) at Cleveland (16-26, -760)
Monday’s meeting between the White Sox and Indians will be the seventh encounter between the two this season. Cleveland has taken five of the first six meetings, which includes a three-game sweep at Jacobs Field in mid-April. The ‘under’ went 4-1-1 during this span, as the White Sox’s offense only managed to average 3.3 runs in the first six. The total for this total is listed at 8, which is considered low for an AL contest with average to below average pitchers.
Unfortunately for the Tribe, they haven’t been able to duplicate their success against Chicago when they meet other clubs. Cleveland avoided a three-game sweep to intrastate rival Cincinnati over the weekend with a 4-3 win on Sunday. Despite that victory, the Indians have gone 3-8 in their last 11 games, which includes a 1-4 record at home.
Chicago has been a great interleague wager over the past couple seasons and they proved it again this year by taking two of three from Florida over the weekend. The White Sox gave up 1 run in the two wins, but 13 in Sunday’s blowout loss.
The White Sox have dropped three straight games with John Danks (3-3, 2.26 ERA) on the hill but it hasn’t been his fault. He’s pitched seven-plus innings in the three starts and has only given up seven earned runs while the offense has produced just four runs over this span. Danks owns a 2-5 career mark versus the White Sox in 10 starts. Justin Masterson (0-4, 5.65 ERA) is still looking for his first win as an Indian this year and it won’t happen tonight if his current form stays the same. In his last three outings, he’s given up 18 hits and 12 walks, which has translated into 11 earned runs.
Boston (24-21, -375) at Tampa Bay (32-12, +1,387)
The Red Sox will be looking to earn their first win against the Rays this season when they open up a three-game set at Tropicana Field. Tampa captured a four-game sweep at Fenway Park from Apr. 16-19, outscoring the Red Sox 24-9 over that span. The total went 2-2.
Boston seems to be finding its groove finally, winning five of its last six, including two of three at Philadelphia over the weekend. The offense should have some confidence too, after chasing Roy Halladay on Sunday with an impressive 8-3 win. Clay Bucholz (5-3, 3.26 ERA) has arguably been Boston’s best pitcher this season, and he’s coming off two straight wins (1.88 ERA). He’s gone 3-0 on the road this season, but lost his only decision to Tampa (5-4) back in April. Bucholz is 2-2 over his career against T-Bay.
After taking two from the Yankees last week, the Rays were stifled 2-1 on Friday as heavy road favorites (-170) by the Astros. Tampa did bounce back with a pair of wins (4-2, 10-6) over the weekend to win the series. The Rays still own the best record in the majors (32-12) but seven of their losses came at home. Tampa’s offense hasn’t been as powerful at home lately, and that’s translated into eight straight ‘under’ tickets at the Trop.
Pittsburgh (19-25, +388) at Cincinnati (25-19, +700)
The lone NL matchup on Monday features the Pirates and Reds opening up a three-game series from Great American Ball Park. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have already squared off six times this season, all of them played inWestern Pennsylvania. The Pirates took the first three in April, completing the sweep by a combined four runs. The Reds countered back in early May with three straight victories, outscoring the Bucs 16-1. This will be first game played in Ohio this season, where Cincinnati won eight of the last 10 meetings against Pittsburgh.
The Reds have been quite a surprise this season and they haven’t fallen off the radar yet. The club took two of three from Cleveland over the weekend and is 6-4 in the last 10. Tonight, Cincinnati has been installed as a healthy favorite, as Aaron Harang (2-5, 6.02 ERA) takes the hill. Harang owns a 12-5 mark against Pitt in his career but he’s easily been the worst starter for the Reds this season and he’s just 1-3 (5.34 ERA) in five starts at home. The Pirates counter with Brian Burres (2-1, 4.91 EAR) who is a lefty and more of a spot starter out of the bullpen. Make a note that Cincinnati has posted a nice mark against lefties at home this season, going 6-2.
The total on this game opened at 9 ½ runs, which could be a tad high considering the Pirates’ offense has been limited to eight runs in their last four games, all ‘under’ winners. However, the Reds are on a 6-2 ‘over’ run, which has been helped by an offense averaging 5.9 RPG during this stretch.
Toronto (26-20, +913) at Los Angeles (21-25, -423)
A battle of southpaws highlights Monday’s final game, as Toronto sends Brett Cecil (3-2, 4.98 ERA) up against Joe Saunders (3-5, 4.42 ERA) of Los Angeles. The Blue Jays (3-6) and Angels (6-9) both have losing records against lefties this season, which could attribute to the tight number (-115/+105) on the late-night battle. Cecil has performed better on the road (3-1, 3.42 ERA) this season and Saunders (1-4, 5.53 ERA) has struggled in Anaheim.
Toronto avoided a three-game sweep to Arizona on Sunday with a 12-4 road victory. Including yesterday’s win, Toronto is 2-3 in its last five on the road, but the club owns a solid 15-9 mark in games played outside of Canada this season. Los Angeles wrapped up a seven-game road trip on Sunday at St. Louis with an extra-inning loss (6-5). The Angels went 3-4 on the trip despite watching the offense put up 39 runs in the seven-game stretch. Unfortunately, the pitchers allowed 41 runs.
The Blue Jays haven’t had much success against the Angels recently. They were swept at home in mid-April, but they did manage to go 4-4 last season.
Interleague Recap
# Even though the American League has owned interleague play over the National League since its inception, the NL finally earned some bragging rights over the weekend with a 23-19 record.
# The ‘under’ posted a 22-20-2 record in the 42 interleague games this past weekend.
# Oakland was the only team to earn a three-game sweep, doing so against Bay Area rival San Francisco. What’s more impressive about the wins is that the A’s did so against Barry Zito, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez. Gamblers may want to be weary of the Giants, who have now dropped five in a row and the offense has been stifled to eight runs during this span.
# Notable series wins (2-1) were the Mets over the Yankees, Red Sox over the Phillies and the Cubbies taking two of three on the road against the Rangers, both victories coming by one run too.
# Speaking of the Yankees, their winning record on the run-line finally came to a close on Friday when they defeated the Mets 2-1. On the season, New York has won 25 of its 26 wins by more than two runs, which is pretty damn impressive, and golden to players limiting risk with run-line wagers.
# If you’re a total player in baseball, then you should be aware of the Diamondbacks. They’ve been a clear-cut ‘over’ team (32-13) this season and that was evident this weekend as all three games against the Blue Jays easily eclipsed closing numbers of 9.5, 11 and 10. The pair combined for 43 runs (14, 13, 16) in the three-game set. Will the trend continue? This writer likes to believe that things balance out in the long run and you could get inflated numbers when the team begins a nine-game road trip against three teams with live arms, the Rockies, Giants and Dodgers.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 5/24
By Dan Bebe
National League
Pirates @ Reds (-185) with a total of 9.5
Orlando Cabrera is 5-for-11 off Burres.
This price is a tad exorbitant for the Reds, even though Cincinnati is the clear better team in this battle. But Harang, for all his improvements since an awful start, still seems to be the guy that either gets a bad break, gives up a key homer, or doesn't get run support, and the Reds find a way to lose in his starts. Burres isn't good, there's no mistaking that, but the Pirates have cashed a few tickets as a big dog already this season, and considering Burres is 2-1 this year, he's gotten a little lucky, and that doesn't usually regress to the mean every 3 weeks. He could get lucky again, so this one is a big fat pass!
American League
White Sox (-168) @ Indians with a total of 8
Alex Rios is 3-for-9 with a HR off Masterson;
Russell Branyan is 4-for-5 off Danks;
Shin-Soo Choo is 6-for-13 with a HR and 3 RBI off Danks.
Justin Masterson is 0-1 against the Sox, but his ERA is just 1.59, so he's been decent enough against the weak-hitting team from the South Side. John Danks is 3-3 with a 2.26 ERA this season, but just 2-5 in his career against the Indians with an ERA of almost 5. Pretty odd discrepancy, and as you can see, Shin-Soo Choo hits him well. The White Sox have a lot of their power from the right side of the plate (Konerko, Quentin, Rios), so Masterson's hard sinker could be an interesting weapon, and even though it's a bit of a longshot, I would offer a lean to the Indians.
Red Sox @ Rays (-130) with a total of 9
Not a great deal of historical data on the Boston side, here, as Wade Davis did struggle in his brief look at the Red Sox last year, but bounced back with 5 innings of 1-run ball this season, and the sample size is so small I don't know if we can draw many conclusions from it. Maybe more important is that Davis is coming off a series of "decent" outings, giving up 2 runs to the Yanks in 6 innings his last time out, after surrendering 3 runs in each of 2 starts prior to that one. So Davis can get hit - he's got great stuff, which means it's going to be tough to light him up, but he's rarely perfect. Buchholz is just 2-2 against Tampa Bay, but his 2.01 ERA against them definitely reflects the lack of success most of the Rays bats have had against Clay. I might actually take a peek at the Under, despite the two offenses being fairly prolific, and with Buchholz pitching well his last 2 starts, the Under and the Sox are both on the table.
Blue Jays @ Angels (-130) with a total of 9
Lyle Overbay is 3-for-10 off Saunders.
Brett Cecil is coming off a nice start, and Saunders is coming off a crazy-impressive resurgence that has seen him allow just 2 earned runs over his last 3 starts. And that, after getting off to an awful start, so the Angels have to be happy as clams to see Saunders rolling like this. The Angels haven't seen Cecil, so that makes handicapping his likely performance tough, though I'd say it's fair to say that Saunders having another good start isn't that much of a stretch. And both teams come into this series having scored a ton of runs in their weekend Interleague matchup. For that reason, I wonder if the Under isn't the way to look. With both pitchers potentially dealing, this one could sneak under the total, but we're taking a huge risk betting against the big bats. Tough game, tough card.
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Blue Jays at Angels – The Blue Jays are 0-6 since April 27, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $610 when playing against. The Angels are 10-1 since July 18, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $865.
White Sox at Indians – The White Sox are 0-6 since April 18, 2010 on the road when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $620 when playing against. The Indians are 0-7 since April 17, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Indians are 2-18 since September 01, 2009 as a dog and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1540 when playing against. The Indians are 0-7 since August 25, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $720 when playing against.
Red Sox at Rays – The Red Sox are 0-7 since September 04, 2009 on the road after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $840 when playing against. The Red Sox are 0-7 since August 04, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $705 when playing against. The Red Sox are 7-0 since August 19, 2009 when Clay Buchholz starts on the road for a net profit of $750. The Rays are 7-0 since September 17, 2009 vs. a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $700.
Pirates at Reds – The Pirates are 1-12 since April 28, 2009 on the road when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $990 when playing against. The Pirates are 4-0 since April 29, 2010 when Brian Burres starts as a dog for a net profit of $690 The Reds are 1-6 since July 30, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $642 when playing against. The Reds are 0-5 since June 21, 2009 when Aaron Harang starts as a favorite vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $605 when playing against.
Tips and Trends
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Red Sox: Boston stands at 23-21 this season, yet they are in 4th place in the American League East. Such is life in the AL East, as the 3 teams ahead of the Red Sox are a combined 33 games over .500 so far this year. Boston has won 4 of their 5 games, quite a feat since their schedule has been so difficult of late. The Red Sox are 9-10 this season in road games. Boston is -4.44 units overall this season, and an even worse -11.21 units on the RL this year. Boston will send Clay Buchholz to the mound today, as he looks to continue his fine season. Buchholz is 5-3 this year, with an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.43. The Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed starter. Boston is 7-0 in Buchholzs' last 7 road starts. The Red Sox are 10-1 in Buchholzs' last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his previous appearance.
Red Sox are 7-20 last 27 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games against the American League East.
Key Injuries - CF Mike Cameron (abdominal) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5
Rays (-130, O/U 9): Tampa Bay has been the best team in baseball for most of this year, but they are starting to appear dominant. The Rays have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games, and are the only team in baseball with a winning percentage of .620% or higher. Tampa Bay is 31-12 overall this season, leading the American League East by 5 games. The Rays are 13-7 overall in home games this season. Tampa Bay is up 13.07 units overall this year, as well as 6.53 units on the run line. The Rays will send prized youngster Wade Davis to the mound today against Boston. Davis is 4-3 this year, with an ERA of 3.35 and a WHIP of 1.38. The Rays are 12-5 in their last 17 during game 1 of a series. Tampa Bay is 22-9 in their last 31 games against a right-handed starter. The Rays are 4-1 in Davis' last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Rays are 7-1 last 8 games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-1 last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - RF Matthew Joyce (elbow) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total of the Day)