Monday's Tip Sheet
By Brad Young
Memorial Day is here, meaning a full slate of games around Major League Baseball. Interleague action is over for now, with National and American League teams going back to their usual routines. Now let’s take a closer look at four key contests on Monday’s schedule.
**Cardinals (Carpenter) at Brewers (Gallardo)**
-Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Milwaukee as a $1.15 home ‘chalk’ over St. Louis, with the total listed at eight ‘under’ (minus $1.30). This National League Central contest is slated to start at 2:05 p.m. ET.
-St. Louis pitcher Chris Carpenter (2-0, 0.00 ERA) continued his impressive early-season run by beating the Chicago Cubs Wednesday as a $1.20 home favorite, 2-1. The veteran right-hander tossed five innings of scoreless ball on three hits with two walks and four strikeouts.
-The combined three runs failed to eclipse the eight-run closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 2-1 his three starts.
-Carpenter, pitching in the majors since 1997, has not started against the Brewers the past few years.
-Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo (4-2, 3.83 ERA) was riding a personal three-game winning streak before falling to Houston Wednesday as a $1.10 road ‘chalk,’ 6-4. The three-year veteran was reached for six runs on seven hits (one home run) with two walks and three strikeouts over five innings.
-The combined 10 runs toppled the eight-run closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash his third straight contest.
-Gallardo has not started against the Cardinals the previous few years.
**Braves (Vazquez) at Giants (Sanchez)**
-LVSC lists Atlanta as a $1.30 road favorite over San Francisco, with the total set at eight. This game is scheduled to begin at 4:05 p.m. ET.
-Atlanta right-hander Javier Vazquez (4-3, 3.39 ERA) is coming off of Wednesday’s victory over Colorado as a $1.60 home ‘chalk,’ 12-4. The Puerto Rico native went five innings, allowing one unearned run on three hits with a walk and six strikeouts.
-The combined 16 runs soared past the eight-run closing total, ending back-to-back ‘under’ outings for the 32-year-old.
-Vazquez, pitching for the Chicago White Sox the previous three seasons, has not started against the Giants the past few years.
-San Francisco southpaw Jonathan Sanchez (1-4, 4.86 ERA) dropped to 0-3 his last five starts after Wednesday’s setback to San Diego as a $1.26 road underdog, 2-1. The four-year veteran pitched six innings, surrendering two runs on two hits (one home run) with three walks and five strikeouts.
-The combined three runs never seriously threatened the eight-run closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 3-1 his last four starts.
-Sanchez fell to the Braves last year as a $1.38 home ‘chalk,’ 11-4, yielding three runs on seven hits with no walks and five strikeouts over five innings. The combined 15 runs goes ‘over’ the 8 ½-run closing total.
**Yankees (Hughes) at Rangers (Harrison)**
-LVSC installed New York as a $1.15 road ‘chalk’ over Texas, with the total listed at 11 ½ ‘over’ (minus $1.20). This American League matchup is slated to start at 2:05 p.m. ET.
-New York pitcher Philip Hughes (2-2, 7.06 ERA) beat Baltimore Wednesday as a $1.50 home favorite, 11-4. The 6-foot-5 hurler went five innings, allowing three runs on six hits (two home runs) with a walk and nine strikeouts.
-The combined 15 runs eclipsed the 11-run closing total, helping the ‘over’ go 3-1-1 his last five starts.
-Hughes, a three-year veteran, has not started against the Rangers the previous few years.
-Texas left-hander Matt Harrison (4-3, 4.71 ERA) was riding a personal four-game winning streak before Wednesday’s setback to Detroit as a $1.50 road underdog, 5-3. The 23-year-old was reached for five runs on nine hits (three home runs) with two walks and three strikeouts over five innings.
-The combined eight runs went ‘under’ the nine-run closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to cash his fifth consecutive start.
-Harrison beat the Yankees last year as a $1.50 home underdog, 8-6, tossing 6 1/3 innings while surrendering two runs on five hits with three walks and three strikeouts. The combined 14 runs toppled the 11 ½-run closing total.
**Red Sox (Penny) at Twins (Liriano)**
-LVSC opened Minnesota as a $1.23 home favorite over Boston, with the total set at 9 ½ ‘under’ (minus $1.25). This contest is scheduled to start at 2:10 p.m. ET.
-Boston hurler Brad Penny (4-1, 6.07 ERA) beat Toronto Wednesday as a $1.30 home ‘chalk,’ 8-3, going 6 2/3 innings while yielding two runs on nine hits with a walk and two strikeouts.
-The combined 11 runs eclipsed the 10-run closing total, ending a 2-0-1 ‘under’ streak.
-Penny beat the Twins last year as a $1.30 home favorite, 7-3, pitching six innings while surrendering three runs (two earned) on six hits (one home run) with a walk and two strikeouts. The combined 10 runs slithered ‘over’ the 9 ½-run closing total.
-Minnesota left-hander Francisco Liriano (2-5, 6.04 ERA) was roughed up against the Chicago White Sox Wednesday as a $1.00 road selection, 7-4. The Dominican Republic native was reached for seven runs on seven hits (two home runs) with three walks and a strikeout over just four innings.
-The combined 11 runs went ‘over’ the 8 ½-run closing total.
-Liriano fell to the Red Sox April 22 as a $1.20 road underdog, 7-3, going four innings while allowing seven runs on four hits (one home run) with four walks and six strikeouts. The combined 10 runs went ‘over’ the 9 ½-run closing total.
vegasinsider.com
Monday’s streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros
There haven’t been too many positives for the Astros this season, but at least they know they’ve got a great chance of winning every fifth day when Rodriguez takes the ball.
The lefty carries a nifty 1.83 earned run average along with a 5-2 record for a club under .500. Houston has actually won five straight when the 30-year-old heads to the mound.
Rodriguez is successful because he rarely gives out free bases (just 16 walks in 59 innings pitched this season) and almost never surrenders big flies (one home run allowed).
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
This right-hander quieted naysayers after a shaky start to the 2009 campaign. Verlander was charged with 21 earned runs through his first 21 innings pitched, but has yielded just four over his last five starts.
The flamethrower has also struck out 52 batters over his last 35 1-3 innings. The Tigers have taken advantage of Verlander’s improved form winning five of his last six starts.
Slumping
Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians
We’re two months deep into the season and through nine starts this former 19-game winner has just two quality starts under his belt.
Carmona consistently gets into trouble because he walks far too many batters. He’s given out 30 free passes to first base – matching his strike out mark for the year.
Cleveland has won three of the righty’s last four starts despite his below average performances. The over has also cashed in four of his last five appearances.
Jamie Moyer, Philadelphia Phillies
It seems like Moyer has been included in the slumping club each time he takes the bump. His latest outing was actually one of his better showings this season. He pitched six innings allowing three runs but still took the loss as the Phillies fell 5-1 to the Reds.
The 46-year-old’s stuff has never been overwhelming but it had always been effective enough to keep balls in play. But batters are teeing off Moyer this season parking 12 homers in 2009 and seven over his last four starts.
Oddsmakers have kept the totals up in Moyer’s outings (10 or higher in the last six) but the over is still 6-1 the last seven times Moyer’s taken the hill.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (26-18) at Milwaukee (26-18)
The Cardinals kick off a six-game road trip at Miller Park where they will send Chris Carpenter (2-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound to face the Brewers’ Yovani Gallardo (4-2, 3.83 ERA).
St. Louis had its five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday when the Royals got the 3-2 victory to salvage one game of the interleague series. The Cardinals are just 9-9 on the road this year and will head west to visit the Giants for a three-game series after their stop in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, the Brewers were swept by the Twins over the weekend, ending a nine-game road trip that started with four straight wins, including three in St. Louis.
Milwaukee has dominated the Cardinals lately, winning 13 of the last 16 meetings, including four of the last five at Miller Park.
Carpenter made his first start in more than a month on Wednesday and didn’t allow a run and only three hits in five innings of a 2-1 win over the Cubs. It was just his sixth start in more than two years of battling injuries. His last two starts against the Brewers haven’t gone so well, but they were way back in the 2005 and 2006 seasons, allowing 13 runs on 19 hits in 11 1/3 innings, losing both games.
Milwaukee has won four of Gallardo’s last five outings, but his last one wasn’t pretty, as the right-hander gave up six runs on seven hits in five innings of Wednesday’s 6-4 loss in Houston. Prior to that he’d held the opposition to three runs or less in six of his first seven starts of 2009. He faced the Cardinals twice in the 2007 season and lost both times, allowing a combined 11 runs on 13 hits in 10 2/3 innings.
St. Louis is 10-4 in its last 14 series openers, but it is just 2-5 in its last seven on the road and 2-5 in its last seven Monday contests. With Carpenter on the mound, the Cardinals are on runs of76-29 overall, 35-16 on the road and 37-15 against N.L. Central teams. Despite getting swept by the Twins over the weekend, Milwaukee is on runs of 22-9 overall, 6-1 at home, 5-0 at home against right-handed starters, 40-19 as a favorite and 36-17 against N.L. Central teams.
The Cardinals are on “under” runs of 6-0 overall, 4-0 in series openers and 7-2 against N.L. Central teams, but the over is 9-2 in Carpenter’s last 11 roadies and 28-12-3 in their last 43 on the highway against right-handed starters. Milwaukee is on “under” streaks of 8-3 at home, 7-2 as a home favorite and 12-5 in Gallardo’s last 17 starts, but the over is 5-0 in the Brewers’ last five games on Monday and 9-3-1 in its last 13 when they face a right-handed starter.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (25-19) at Texas (26-17)
The two hottest teams in the American League begin a three-game set today at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington when the Yankees send Phil Hughes (2-2, 7.06 ERA) to the mound opposite Texas southpaw Matt Harrison (4-3, 4.71).
New York lost two of three to the Phillies over the weekend, including a 4-3, 11-inning loss on Sunday, but has still won 10 of its last 12 overall and six of its last eight on the highway. Meanwhile, the Rangers swept their in-state rivals in Houston over the weekend when they blanked the Astros 5-0 on Sunday. Texas has won 16 of its last 21 games overall and eight straight in front of the home fans.
The Yankees hold decisive advantages when these two clubs square off, winning 21 of the last 28 clashes overall and 21 of the last 29 in Texas.
Hughes has been inconsistent this season, including going 1-1 with a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts, and he’s 1-1 with a 9.38 ERA in his two road outings. The Yankees scored home wins over Baltimore and Minnesota in Hughes’ last two starts, but in his last roadie, Hughes allowed eight runs on eight hits in just 1 2/3 innings of a 12-5 loss to the Orioles. In his lone career start against Texas, he blanked the Rangers without a hit for 6 1/3 innings of a 10-1 victory in Texas back in May 2007.
Harrison is 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 15 strikeouts against just three walks in his last three starts. He threw a complete game in his last home outing, allowing two runs on five hits in a 3-2 win over the Mariners. Harrison faced the Yankees in August last season and allowed two runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings of an 8-6 Texas victory.
New York is 5-2 in Hughes’ last seven starts, but just 2-5 in his last seven on the road. The Yankees are on further streaks of 4-1 against A.L. West teams and 4-1 on the road against teams with winning records. Texas is just 1-5 when Harrison starts as a home favorite but the Rangers are 5-1 in his last six starts against A.L. East squads. Furthermore, the Rangers are on runs of 6-1 in series openers, 7-3 against winning teams and 11-3 when they face a right-hander.
For the Yankees, the under is on runs of 5-1 in series openers and 5-0 against teams with winning records, but the over is 13-6-1 in their last 20 as a ‘dog and 8-3-1 in their last 12 on Mondays. The Rangers have topped the total in 20 of their last 32 Monday games, but otherwise for Texas the “under” is on stretches of 21-8 overall, 8-3 at home, 7-3 in series openers and 5-0 in Harrison’s last five outings. However the over is 9-3 in Harrison’s last 12 starts at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
GAMETIMEPICKS.COM
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Monday, May 25
Tampa Bay at Cleveland (6:05 p.m. EDT). ALCS star David Price is set to be called up from Triple-A to make his first start of the season against Grady Sizemore and the Indians.
STARS
Sunday
-Brandon McCarthy, Rangers, scattered nine hits in his first career complete game and shut out Houston 5-0.
-Adam Dunn, Nationals, hit a grand slam and a two-run homer for a career-high six RBIs in an 8-5 win over Baltimore.
-Torii Hunter, Angels, drove in three runs after a frightening crash into the center-field wall in a 10-7 win at Dodger Stadium.
-Landon Powell, Athletics, hit his first career home run in a 6-2 win over Arizona. The backup catcher connected for a tiebreaking shot in the sixth inning.
-Carlos Fisher, Reds, pitched a hitless 11th inning in his major league debut and got the win as Cincinnati defeated Cleveland 4-3.
-Brian McCann, Braves, homered twice in a 10-2 win over Toronto.
-Scott Baker, Twins, allowed three runs, seven hits and struck out six in 8 1-3 innings in Minnesota's 6-3 win over Milwaukee, his first victory in three starts since May 8.
SOONER OR LATER
Kevin Youkilis hit a three-run homer for Boston in a 12-5 win over the Mets, connecting two innings after his long foul ball was upheld by a video replay at Fenway Park. He thought he'd homered in the fifth and rounded first base in a full trot, but umpires stopped him.
STREAKS
San Diego completed the first 9-0 homestand in team history by defeating the Cubs 7-2 Sunday. ... Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury extended his hitting streak to 19 games.
SLUMPS
Boston slugger David Ortiz, who changed in the middle of the game from his usual black bat to a lighter-colored model, went 0 for 5 and stranded eight runners, dropping his average to .195. He was 0 for 12 in the three-game series against the Mets, and the Red Sox will consider putting him lower in the batting order. ... The Cubs lost their sixth in a row Sunday, and have scored only five runs during the skid. ... Phillies closer Brad Lidge failed to hold a one-run lead in the ninth against the Yankees, blowing a save chance for the second straight day. He was 48 for 48 last year, but has converted only eight of 12 this season.
STUNG
Tampa Bay 2B Akinori Iwamura hurt his left knee when Florida's Chris Coghlan slid into him while trying to turn a double play. Iwamura was carted off the field and will have an MRI exam in St. Petersburg. After the game, Coghlan went into the Rays clubhouse and told Iwamura he was sorry about the injury. ... Reds 2B Brandon Phillips plans on trying to play with a hairline fracture of his right thumb. He had an NL-leading 27 RBIs in May when he was hurt trying to field a grounder Saturday.
STICKING AROUND
The Pittsburgh Pirates finished a weekend series against the Chicago White Sox and start another road series Monday - but don't have to change hotels, as they face the Cubs. Several players brought their entire families to enjoy nearly a full week in Chicago.
SHATTERED
Mark Teixeira homered into the left-field seats at Yankee Stadium on Sunday despite having his bat shatter. He was left holding little more than the handle when the wood split, but the ball still sailed. "Most of the time when you hear a broken bat you think it's a popup,'' Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels said.
BIG BLAST
Milwaukee's Mike Cameron homered in the Brewers' 6-3 loss at Minnesota on Sunday, becoming the 20th player in major league history to have 250 home runs and 250 steals. He has 291 career steals.
SPEAKING
"The 5-2 defense - I'm going to recommend that for the New York Jets.'' - Ross Gload, who singled through a five-man infield in the 11th inning to lift Florida over Tampa Bay 5-4.
Enjoying Memorial Day by the Hour
By: Doug Upstone
Memorial Day was originally called Decoration Day, being a day of remembrance for those who have died in our nation's service. There are many stories as to its actual beginnings, with over two dozen cities laying claim to being the birthplace of Memorial Day. General John Logan, national commander of the Grand Army of the Republic, officially proclaimed Memorial Day and it was first observed May 30, 1868, when flowers were placed on the graves of Union and Confederate soldiers at Arlington National Cemetery.
Though the true meaning has been lost over the years, Memorial Day is a time to reflect about those who came before us and enjoy family and friends. Baseball has always been a part of the fabric of the day, as people go to the ballpark on this holiday to enjoy and get a small lesson on the history of the day.
Handicappers Lounge honors those who died for our country with an hourly look at a number of baseball games being played on Memorial Day.
1:10 E – Houston at Cincinnati
Local Boy Scout groups will be in action in Cincinnati, as the Reds host Houston in the first game of the day. Aaron Harang is pitching better this season for Cincy with 4-4 record and has 2.45 ERA at Great American Ballpark. For some reason he and Reds are just 6-15 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Monday. The Astros Wandy Rodriguez is pitching superbly with 5-2 record and sharp 1.83 ERA. Houston could use big effort after 1-5 homestand.
2:05 E – St. Louis at Milwaukee
Various suburbs in the Milwaukee area hold Memorial Day parades, to honor brave men and women who have served our country. The Brewers and St. Louis will continue to fight for the lead in NL Central. The Cardinals are off crazy homestand in which they were 5-4, being swept by Milwaukee and having pitchers surrendering just five total runs in winning five of next six. The Brew Crew was barreling until they struggled with interleague killer Minnesota. Good pitching matchup with Cris Carpenter (2-0, 0.00) and Yovani Gallardo (4-2, 3.83) scheduled and the Redbirds are 8-0 after batting .225 or worse over a 10-game span over the last two seasons.
3:10 E - L.A. Dodgers at Colorado
American Legion posts throughout the state of Colorado will have celebrations and in Denver, the Rockies are back home after winning series in Detroit. Colorado pitchers have only allowed eight runs in last four contests. Jorge De La Rosa will try and add to productivity seeking his first win (0-4) in 2009 in eight starts. He's facing potent Dodgers lineup that is 10-3 against left-handers, scoring six runs per game. Betmania.com has Rocks are -125 money line favorites versus L.A. who is 20-8 against NL West opponents this season.
4:05 E – Seattle at Oakland
Division rivals Seattle and Oakland meet coming off a win. The A's had chance to take series over Arizona, but failed to hold 5-1 lead Saturday and is only 21-28 in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last three seasons. The Mariners have enjoyed the Bay Area and is 14-7 at Oakland, including 3-0 this season.
6:05 E – Tampa Bay at Cleveland
With Scott Kazmir on DL, phenom David Price is expected to make 2009 debut with Tampa Bay. Price has electric stuff and still had options, which is why primarily he didn't make big club out of spring training. He was just 1-4 with a 3.93 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A, likely due to in part to disappointment of not making original 25-man roster and can prove he belongs starting Monday. The Rays have been making steady progress after slow start and have not lost a series in last four. Cleveland continues to languish, with poor pitching and lack of consistent run production. Maybe Tampa Bay will spark the Tribe to run off winning streak, since they have defeated them eight straight times in Cleveland.
7:05 E- Florida at Philadelphia
Disabled American Veterans and Veterans of Foreign Wars will have ceremonies in Philadelphia, as the Phillies return home all smiles, after taking two of three at Yankee Stadium and completing 8-2 road trip. Now the Phils want to build momentum at home, where they are below average 8-12, losing -8.5 units. Jamie Moyer has been horrendous all season, with 7.62 ERA and WHIP of 1.815. He's hoping facing Florida will cure him, since he is 12-1 with 2.84 ERA against the Marlins.
8:05 E – Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs road trip was a complete disaster, totaling five runs and 30 hits in six consecutive losses. Manager Lou Pinella has to hope the Friendly Confines are just that and the Chicago bats awake from slumber. Pittsburgh makes the unusual trip of going from the south side of Chicago to north side to open up new series. The Pirates bats were quiet also, being shutout twice before scoring three times in last two innings to come from behind and beat Pale Hose 4-3. The Bucs are miserable 4-11 at Wrigley Field and are +160 underdogs and will face Ryan Dempster, who is 13-0 at home in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. (Cubs Record)
9:05 E – Chicago White Sox at L.A. Dodgers
The Angels return to the Big A in Anaheim after playing at Dodger Stadium over the weekend. The Halos starting pitchers are coming back to health, including Ervin Santana, who is scheduled starter Monday night. Santana has thrown fairly well in first two starts coming back from elbow sprain, however hasn't reached typical velocity yet. The Angels will face Chicago's John Danks and are 41-24 against left-handed starters since last year. Danks is 3-3 and hasn't found same groove as last season, which is why in partially the White Sox are +145 road underdogs. The Sox are despicable 22-47 as a road underdog of +100 or higher.