Monday on the Diamond
By Judd Hall
Monday’s card in Major League Baseball has a pair of series starting up between clubs we know as modern powers. The Cards make the trip to Philadelphia to begin a four-game series. Meanwhile, the Angels and Red Sox start a four-game set of their own at Fenway Park. Let’s look at the first tilts of those series.
Cardinals at Phillies – 7:05 p.m. EDT
Most sportsbooks have listed the Cardinals as $1.35 road favorites (risk $135 to win $100) with a total of nine.
St. Louis (16-8, +524) comes into this contest having won six of its last seven games. That strong play has helped them push out to a four-game lead over the Reds in the National League Central.
The Cardinals were able to avenge its series opening loss to Cincinnati with a 6-3 decision on Saturday as $1.60 home favorites. St. Louis used a three-run eighth inning to pull ahead for good because of Cincy’s tired bullpen. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday were both walked with the bases loaded to pick up some easy runs batted in.
Jaime Garcia (2-1, 1.04) gets the nod from Tony LaRussa to get the series off on the right foot. The young left-hander has performed quite well as the No. 5 starting pitcher. Garcia has lasted no fewer than six innings in all four of his starts, while allowing only three earned runs.
What gamblers should be worried about with the southpaw on the mound for St. Louis is that run support has always been there for him. Sure they posted six runs for Garcia in a 6-0 win over Atlanta on April 28. Yet the Cards’ offense crossed the plate twice in his starts prior to facing the Braves. Incidentally, both of those starts were losses for St. Louis.
Philadelphia (13-10, -113) might not be playing fair with the gamblers that have backed them all season long. But they are in a good spot to repeat as NL East champs. The Phillies’ newest toy, Roy Halladay, tossed a three-hit complete game for a 10-0 win as $2.20 home faves on Saturday.
The Phils’ old ace, Cole Hamels, was supposed to be on the mound for this game. Philadelphia has opted to hold him off for a day, replacing Hamels with Joe Blanton for Game 1. Blanton has been on the disabled list since March 26 with a strained left oblique.
It makes good sense for Philadelphia to bring Blanton back into the fold on Monday night. That’s because he’s 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three career starts against the Cards.
The Phillies have not fared all that well as home pups against lefties recently, losing four of their last five contests under these conditions.
The ‘over’ is 5-3 in the Phillies’ eight home tests this season.
The Cardinals have been road faves against right-handers 40 times over the last two seasons. In those tilts, they are 23-17. That number includes the fact that they’ve won four straight in this role.
St. Louis has watched the ‘under’ go 7-5 away from home in 2010.
Angels at Red Sox – 7:10 p.m. EDT
The Red Sox have been installed as a $1.55 home faves with a total of nine.
The Angels lost a fair amount of talent over the winter that many experts felt would hinder their shot at winning the American League West crown once more. After just one month of regular season play, Los Angeles (12-13, -269) could be considered to be in some trouble. As bad as things seem right now, the Halos are still just one game behind the division leading Athletics.
LA might not make it past the A’s or anyone for that matter if they can get Joe Saunders (1-4, 5.74) back on track. Saunders has not been effective at all in his last two starts, lasting 7.2 innings and allowing eight earned runs. You can argue that he’s just not finding the strike zone right now either as he has six walks to just two strikeouts in his last two appearances.
There is reason to believe that Saunders will get out of his funk on Monday night. He has a 4-1 record with a 3.24 ERA in eight starts against the Red Sox. At Fenway Park, the Angels’ No. 3 starter is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA.
Boston (11-12, -598) was supposed to be in the thick of a three-way race to win the AL East, but they’re sitting six games behind the Rays. We could harp on the Red Sox hitting as an issue, but their pitching has been atrocious.
The Red Sox are 25th in team ERA (4.89) with teams hitting .266 against their hurlers. When the opposition has runners in scoring position, they are hitting .270 this season. Not the type of numbers you expected out of Boston after a month.
Luckily for Boston, Clay Buchholz (2-2, 2.19) will get the starting nod on Monday. Buchholz has arguably been the BoSox’s best pitcher this year. He tossed eight innings, giving up just one run on seven hits en route to a 2-1 win for Boston as a $1.05 road “chalk” on April 27 against the Blue Jays.
One of the few clubs that has had Buchholz’s number in his short career is the Halos. He is just 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles.
The Angels have not been scared by the vexatious crowds in Beantown, evidenced by a 6-3 record in their last nine regular season games at Fenway.
Boston has watched the ‘over’ go 12-9-2 this season. At home for the Sox, the ‘over’ is 8-4.
The ‘under’ is 13-12 for the Angels after just a month of regular season play and 5-3 in their road tests.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (17-8) at Philadelphia (14-10)
The Cardinals kick off a seven-game trip to Pennsylvania when they send red-hot rookie Jaime Garcia (2-1, 1.04 ERA) to the hill opposite the Phillies’ Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.05 in 2009), who is slated to come off the disabled list and make his 2010 debut in the opener of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
Chris Carpenter and two relievers combined on a three-hit shutout Sunday, leading St. Louis past Cincinnati, 6-0. With the win, the Cardinals finished off a solid 6-1 homestand and won for the seventh time in their last eight games. Tony LaRussa’s squad, which has the National League’s best record, is on additional outstanding runs of 6-1 as a favorite, 5-0 versus N.L. East foes, 10-1 on Monday and 28-8 in series openers.
The Phillies hit two home runs – including a grand slam by Shane Victorino – in a nine-run fourth inning to rally past the Mets 11-5 on Sunday night, winning the first series of a 10-game homestand. Although it scored blowout victories on Saturday (10-0) and Sunday, Philadelphia has still dropped eight of its last 14 contests since starting the season 8-2, going 2-3 at home during this stretch. The Phillies have also lost four of five to left-handed starters, four of five at home versus southpaws and four straight series openers, but on the positive end they’ve won 35 of 52 against the N.L. Central and 24 of 32 on Monday.
These teams faced off just five times last year, with the Phillies winning four of the five contests, and going back to 2008, they’ve won eight of the last 10 series clashes, going 4-1 at home. In last year’s four wins over St. Louis, Philadelphia tallied 39 runs.
Garcia delivered yet another stellar effort in his most recent outing on Wednesday, holding the Braves to just four hits and one walk in seven scoreless innings en route to a 6-0 home victory. The left-hander has allowed a total of three earned runs in 26 innings, going exactly six innings in his two road starts (at San Francisco, at Milwaukee) and seven innings in his two home contests. Furthermore, Garcia has permitted just 25 baserunners (16 hits, nine walks) with 17 strikeouts in 26 innings.
Blanton has been on the shelf all season recovering from a strained left abdominal muscle. His last appearance was in the World Series against the Yankees on Nov. 1, when he started and gave up four runs on six hits in six innings, getting a no-decision in Philadelphia’s 7-4 home loss. Over his final six outings of 2009 (four starts, two relief appearances), the veteran right-hander gave up 19 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings (6.26 ERA).
In 16 regular-season home starts last year, Blanton went 7-4 with a 3.77 ERA. Also, he’s 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three all-time appearances against the Cardinals. Two of those three wins came last year, with Blanton holding St. Louis to a total of three runs in 14 innings in leading Philadelphia to a 6-1 road win and a 9-2 home victory.
St. Louis brings a slew of “under” trends into this four-game series, including 7-2-1 overall, 7-3 on the road, 7-0 in series openers, 12-3-1 versus winning teams and 8-3 on Monday, and all four of Garcia’s starts this year have stayed low. On the flip side, it’s been all “overs” for Philadelphia, including 36-16-2 overall, 16-5-2 at home, 8-2 against N.L. Central teams, 6-1 on Monday and 7-2 as an underdog.
Finally, the over is 13-6-2 in the last 21 Phillies-Cardinals clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (16-10) at Minnesota (16-9)
The top two teams in the A.L. Central begin a three-game series at the new Target Field in Minneapolis, with Scott Baker (2-2, 5.72 ERA) scheduled to toe the slab for the Twins opposite Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer (1-1, 4.23) in a pitching rematch from last week.
Justin Verlander went 8 1/3 strong innings Sunday, giving up just a single run on three hits and no walks in helping Detroit to a weekend sweep of the Angels with a 5-1 victory. The Tigers have won a season-high five straight games (all at home), and they’re 9-3 in their last dozen contests (4-2 on the road). Additionally, they’re on stretches of 7-3 against division rivals and 4-1 as an underdog, but Detroit has also lost 29 of 43 as a road ‘dog and five of six when opening a series.
The Twins return home after capping a nine-game road trip with Sunday’s 9-3 victory in Cleveland. Minnesota was a mediocre 5-4 on the trip – including losing two of three in Detroit – but the Twins’ first ever homestand at Target Field was a success, as they went 6-3. Minnesota enters this series on impressive runs of 16-5 at home (including the Metrodome), 27-11 against A.L. Central foes, 25-17 versus right-handed starters, 20-6 in series openers, 22-6 as a favorite and 6-1 on Monday.
These division rivals met last week in Motown, with the Twins winning the opener 2-0 and Detroit coming back to score victories of 11-6 and 3-0. Last year, Minnesota took 11 of the final 17 meetings with the Tigers, including a 6-5, 12-inning home victory in a one-game playoff to determine the division champ. Also, no team was happier to see the Twins depart their old home than the Tigers, who lost 62 of their last 90 games inside the Metrodome.
Scherzer, who’s in his first year with Detroit, is coming off his worst outing of the season, as he squandered six runs on 10 hits in 3 2/3 innings against the Twins on Wednesday. However, the Tigers’ offense bailed him out and ended up rolling to an 11-6 home win. Despite that result, Scherzer’s teams (Detroit and Arizona) are just 2-7 in his last nine starts dating to September.
Scherzer’s been at his best on the road so far, going 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three starts, pitching at least six innings in all three contests. Last week’s start against Minnesota was the first time in the right-hander’s young career that he’s faced the Twins.
Baker started opposite Scherzer on Wednesday and got torched for five runs on nine hits in four innings, and he’s now had back-to-back poor outings – both against division rivals (Detroit and Cleveland) – yielding 11 runs on 19 hits in 9 2/3 innings. At home this year, the right-hander is 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA in three games.
Despite his last two poor efforts, with Baker starting the Twins are still on positive runs of 11-5 overall, 8-2 at home, 36-16 as a favorite, 12-3 as a home chalk, 5-1 in series openers and 13-4 versus division rivals. Baker is also now 5-4 with a 4.60 ERA in 18 career starts against the Tigers, including getting a no-decision in last year’s one-game playoff for the division title.
The Tigers are on “over” streaks of 4-0-1 on the road, 4-1-1 as an underdog, 3-0-1 as a road pup, 5-2 versus A.L. Central competition and 8-1 on Monday. Additionally, when Baker pitches, the over is on tears of 5-1-2 overall, 15-7-2 at home, 6-1-1 in series openers and 20-7-2 versus division rivals. However, the under is 5-0-2 in Minnesota’s last seven Monday contests and 5-0-1 in Baker’s last six on Monday.
Finally, the under was 4-1-1 in the last six Metrodome meetings between these two in 2009, but the over has cashed in eight of Baker’s last nine starts against Detroit, with four of his last five at home versus the Twins flying high.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Diamondbacks at Astros – The Diamondbacks are 1-8 since June 25, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $695 when playing against. The League is 11-0 since October 07, 2009 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1175. The Astros are 0-7 since August 04, 2009 when Felipe Paulino starts at home for a net profit of $785 when playing against.
Rangers at Athletics – The Rangers are 0-9 since May 09, 2009 on the road when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $920 when playing against. The Athletics are 7-0 since July 31, 2009 as a home favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $700
Blue Jays at Indians – The Blue Jays are 0-7 since April 27, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $710 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 0-6 since July 08, 2009 as a road dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Indians are 0-6 since September 11, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Rockies at Padres – The Padres are 4-0 since September 06, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $645.
Cardinals at Phillies – The Phillies are 0-4 since June 12, 2009 when Joe Blanton starts at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $510 when playing against.
Angels at Red Sox – The Angels are 8-1 since June 05, 2009 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $830. The Angels are 0-6 since October 17, 2009 when Joe Saunders starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Angels are 5-0 since April 10, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $615. The Red Sox are 10-0 since June 09, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.
Mets at Reds – The Mets are 1-8 since June 12, 2009 as a road dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $675 when playing against. The Reds are 0-7 since April 24, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pickem when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $725 when playing against. The Reds are 6-0 since April 26, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $630.
Tigers at Twins – The Tigers are 0-10 since April 17, 2009 as a road dog after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.
Royals at White Sox – The Royals are 0-7 since May 10, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Royals are 0-6 since May 23, 2009 as a 140+ dog after being shutout for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The White Sox are 0-7 since April 24, 2009 after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $780 when playing against.
Orioles at Yankees – The Orioles are 0-13 since April 09, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $1300 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-7 since September 19, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Yankees are 11-0 since April 17, 2009 as a 200+ favorite vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1100.