MLB News and Notes Monday 5/31

Monday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking

Ervin Santana (4-3, 3.65) L.A. Angels

Ervin Santana was cranking out more hits than rock legend Carlos Santana until his last three starts, going 3-0 and allowing only five earned runs during that span.

Santana has a 2.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last three starts, striking out 22 in those 22 innings of work, including a 10-K, complete-game performance in his four-hitter against the Blue Jays in his last outing.

"I'm not going to throw a complete game all the time," Santana said after the 8-3 win, "but I just try to go as far as I can for as long as I can."

It's a stark contrast to his 1-3 start to the season, when he gave up 23 earned runs over his first seven starts. Like the more musically inclined Santana, Ervin also has found his groove.

Ubaldo Jimenez (9-1, 0.88) Colorado Rockies

After Jimenez's hot start to the season, it's hard to imagine him getting any hotter. Yet that's exactly what he'd done over his last three outings.

After starting the season 6-1 with an 0.99 ERA, including his first career no-hitter, Jimenez has actually lowered his ERA and WHIP over his past three starts with identical 0.78 marks during that span.

"It's not easy to have an ERA like that young man has this late into the season," Rockies manager Jim Tracy said of Jimienez. "I've heard the term 'microscopic' used and I think it applies."

Jimenez carries a 16 1/3-inning scoreless streak into Monday's highly anticipated matchup with San Francisco's Tim Lincecum, but it's tough for anyone to beat a guy giving up less than one run per game.

Slumping

Matt Garza (5-3, 2.97) Tampa Bay Rays

After getting off to 5-1 start in his first six outings, Garza hasn't won since May 5, going 0-2 over his last four starts and allowing 13 earned runs during that stretch.

Garza's last start was his shortest and worst of the season, allowing six earned runs (all on home runs) and walking five batters in an 11-3 loss to the Red Sox.

While it's possible Garza was protected behind the Rays' strong hitting earlier in the season, he's been exposed a bit now that the offense has come down to earth.

"It's such a cyclical thing, I think," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "You're either hot in those moments or (you're not), and we had been hot and now we're not."

Garza may need all the support he can get today against the power-hitting Jays.

Francisco Liriano (4-3, 3.17) Minnesota Twins

It's only May and it's already been a tale of two seasons for Liriano. After going 4-0 through his first five starts, Liriano is 0-3 in his last four outings.

Maybe he should blame it on the rain. After sailing through his first five trips to the mound, Liriano's sixth start was pushed back one day against the Baltimore Orioles and he hasn't been the same ever since.

Liriano has allowed 15 earned runs over that stretch after giving up just six in his first five outings. His ERA has almost tripled since the weather threw off his rhythm. But the veteran still has it in him to bounce back.

"With Frankie on the mound you know you're going to get a chance to win," said Twins manager Rod Gardenhire.

True, just not as true as it was one month ago.

Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins

Nationals at Astros – The Nationals are 0-8 since April 24, 2009 after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $860 when playing against. The Nationals are 6-0 since June 06, 2009 after an extra inning loss for a net profit of $720.

Rays at Blue Jays – The Rays are 5-0 since July 19, 2009 when Matt Garza starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $500. The Blue Jays are 0-8 since July 21, 2009 as a home dog and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Phillies at Braves – The Phillies are 6-0 since June 23, 2009 on the road after a one run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $670. The Braves are 5-0 since June 18, 2009 when Tommy Hanson starts as a favorite after walking at least 4 for a net profit of $500.

Reds at Cardinals – The Reds are 0-7 since September 08, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $732 when playing against. The Reds are 6-0 since August 20, 2009 after a loss in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings for a net profit of $630. The Reds are 7-0 since May 01, 2009 when Bronson Arroyo starts on the road in the first game of a series for a net profit of $825.

Diamondbacks at Dodgers – The Diamondbacks are 5-0 since April 14, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings for a net profit of $620. The Dodgers are 0-4 since July 16, 2009 as a home favorite after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $615 when playing against.

Rockies at Giants – The Rockies are 0-7 since August 28, 2009 on the road after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $740 when playing against. The Rockies are 0-5 since April 13, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts on the road within 20 cents of pickem after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $525 when playing against. The Giants are 0-5 since April 12, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $745 when playing against.

Twins at Mariners – The Twins are 6-0 since July 17, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $630. The Twins are 0-5 since May 15, 2009 when Francisco Liriano starts within 20 cents of pickem in May for a net profit of $520 when playing against.

Brewers at Marlins – The Brewers are 1-7 since June 23, 2009 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $635 when playing against.

Mets at Padres – The Mets are 0-8 since June 06, 2009 on the road after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $810 when playing against. The Padres are 6-0 since July 31, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pickem and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $640.

Cubs at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-8 since August 05, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-6 since May 23, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts in May for a net profit of $620 when playing against.

Angels at Royals – The Angels are 7-0 since June 16, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after allowing 6+ runs win for a net profit of $735. The Royals are 0-8 since May 14, 2009 at home after a 5+ run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $830 when playing against.

Athletics at Tigers – The Athletics are 6-0 since August 22, 2009 when Trevor Cahill starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $675. The Tigers are 7-0 since April 11, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts at home vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $700.

Indians at Yankees – The Indians are 7-0 since April 15, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1025. The Indians are 5-0 since April 16, 2010 when Mitch Talbot starts as a dog for a net profit of $705. The Yankees are 0-7 since May 09, 2010 and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $880 when playing against. The Yankees are 7-0 since September 05, 2009 when Andy Pettitte starts as a favorite when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $700.

MLB RoundUp For 5/31
By Dan Bebe

National League

Phillies @ Braves (-155) with a total of 8.5
Yunel Escobar is 4-for-13 with a HR and 2 RBI off Blanton;
Brian McCann is 6-for-16 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Blanton;
Martin Prado is 5-for-9 off Blanton with 2 HR and 3 RBI.
Blanton faced the Braves earlier this season and gave up 3 runs in 6 innings, really not all that bad, though it's clear his arm still isn't quite at full strength, as Blanton has had all kinds of issues his 3rd time through the batting order. Tommy Hanson went just 4.2 innings against Philly when he faced them a month back, and his 0-2, 5.40 mark against the Phils doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Dan no likey either side, here, though the Braves are inarguably the hotter team. Pass.

Brewers @ Marlins (-130) with a total of 9.5
Carlos Gomez is 4-for-12 off Robertson from their time in the AL.
Dare we put money on a guy that has simply been marginal in every single start? I can't say I'm not tempted. Nate Robertson's 4.05 ERA is perfectly indicative of his work with Florida. Never great, never completely wretched, just enough to keep his team in the game. Chris Narveson has been mostly bad, as have his teammates. He's coming off a 4-inning, 4-run effort against the punchless Astros, so Narveson isn't exactly dealing, and his season 5.53 ERA is probably pretty accurate. The Brewers had won 3 in a row before getting throttled Sunday, but they are playing a tad better. The Marlins had lost 4 in a row before getting a 1-0 win over Philadelphia yesterday. Slight, slight lean to Florida, but paying -130 to back Robertson is not my top choice right now.

Cubs @ Pirates with a total of N/A

Nationals @ Astros (-180) with a total of 7.5
Adam Dunn is batting .314 with 3 HR and 7 RBI off Oswalt since '05;
Adam Kennedy is 4-for-11 off Oswalt since '05;
Ryan Zimmerman is 3-for-10 off Oswalt with 2 HR and 3 RBI.
Interestingly, Luis Atilano was on the winning side of a Nationals victory over Tim Lincecum in his last start, and improved to 4-1 on the season. Can he topple another ace? Tough to say. Oswalt was brilliant his last time out, tossing 8 shutout innings against the Brewers, and it seems like his desire to get traded has forced him into even a higher gear as he draws more interest from the League. His 9 K's tied a season high, as well. Oswalt is 3-1 against the Nats, lifetime, with a 3.11 ERA, but the numbers on the Nationals side make paying -180 way too steep. Pass.

Rockies @ Giants (-110) with a total of 6
Todd Helton is 9-for-19 with a HR and 2 RBI off Lincecum;
Chris Iannetta is 6-for-12 with a HR and 4 RBI off Lincecum;
Pablo Sandoval is 6-for-18 with a HR off Jimenez;
Juan Uribe is 3-for-5 with 3 RBI off Jimenez.
This is the true Memorial Day showdown by the Bay, and it's almost a shame it has to start at 4pm. This one has primetime written all over it. Though, admittedly, Lincecum has had to fight his way through a couple unusual starts. Timmy gave up 5 runs in Arizona, and 6 at home to the Nats. You have to think something must be hurting him or the mechanics might be off. And you're going to need every ounce of strength to do battle with Ubaldo, he of the 9-1 record and 0.88 ERA. Both teams are pitching well, the Giants are hitting a little better than the Rox, though a lot of that comes from playing the Nats and D'backs on their current homestand, while the Rockies had to tackle the Dodgers lights out bullpen in their most recent series. Fun game to handicap; fun game to watch - I lean to the Rockies.

Reds @ Cardinals (-145) with a total of 7.5
Bronson Arroyo has already faced the Cardinals twice this year, and Garcia has seen the Reds once, so let's do away with the player numbers, since it's clear that this year is not like all others. Why? Well, Felipe Lopez, Albert Pujols, Colby Rasmus, and Brendan Ryan had all destroyed Arroyo coming into 2010, but if we look at some recent Bronson starts against the Cards, he's been doing all the owning. In fact, after a very bad start against St. Louis back in mid-July of last year, Arroyo has since faced the Cards 3 times, twice this year and once at the tail end of the 2009 season. This year, Arroyo has gone 17 innings and given up 3 runs, beating them twice, and in his final start of 2009, Arroyo went 8.1 innings of 1-run ball against the Cards, as well. I know Garcia is posting a 1.14 ERA this season, but he simply isn't a 1.14 ERA pitcher. You can be good, but it takes some great luck to have these numbers at the end of May, unless you're Ubaldo Jimenez, who throws 100mph. Garcia's spectacular ERA is giving us all kinds of value on the underdog Reds, and I can't help but think Arroyo just has a way with the Cards.

D'backs @ Dodgers (-170) with a total of 8.5
2nd REMATCH ALERT! Maybe I shouldn't have used an exclamation point, since these two guys are actually 1-1 head-to-head so far this year. Lopez has allowed 4 runs in both starts, over 12 combined innings, and the Chad struggled his first time facing the D'backs, allowing 6 runs over 5.2 innings, but bounced back with a slightly better effort in round two, allowing 2 runs in 5.1 frames. Still, he never quite looks comfortable against the D'backs, anymore, and it was clear that Joe Torre was going to have a lightning quick hook with Chad and Arizona. I would jump on Arizona in this one if it weren't for one huge issue. The Dodgers are simply playing far better baseball. Andre Ethier is due to come off the DL for this series, so that's a kick in the pants, and LA's pitching has been incredible, even in Coors Field. The D'backs are hitting the ball with zero authority, as well, so this one might best be left alone.

Mets @ Padres (-110) with a total of 6.5
Jeff Francoeur is 3-for-10 off Correia;
David Wright is 8-for-10 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Correia.
Here's the tale of two stats -- Correia is 0-3 lifetime against the Mets, but has a 1.63 ERA against them. If you want to talk about a tough-luck career against one particular team, that's definitely in the running. The Padres just keep finding ways to win tough ones at home, and you just have to keep giving credit to the bullpen over and over. Takahashi has been lights out in his first few starts for the Metropolitans, and he's yet to give up a run since his move to the starting rotation (12 innings over 2 starts, 0 runs). Petco isn't a bad place to try to keep that streak alive, but I have to admit - with the Mets' struggles on the road, and the Padres almost uncanny clutch play, if we can get San Diego for this cheap of a price, we should look at them, shouldn't we?

American League

Indians @ Yankees (-260) with a total of 9.5
Austin Kearns is 4-for-8 off Pettitte;
Jhonny Peralta is 3-for-10 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Pettitte;
Curtis Granderson is 1-for-1 with a HR and 4 RBI off Talbot.
This line is way out there. I'm not going to bother breaking this one down, since you guys should know by now there's no value in playing New York at this type of price, and Cleveland is about 60 cents away from being an automatic 1/4-unit flier.

Athletics @ Tigers (-165) with a total of 8
This number seems kind of low considering Verlander pitched a 1-run complete game against the A's in Oakland just a couple weeks ago, and, on top of that, Cahill is 0-1 against Detroit with a 8.68 ERA. Verlander's studly outing wasn't an aberration, either - he's 4-3 against Oakland over his career, with a 2.72 ERA, and the A's offense has gotten way less homer-happy since those days. Verlander's fastball is almost enough to neutralize this team all by itself, and that makes this short-ish line all that much more confusing. Cahill's pitching well this year so maybe that has something to do with it, having tossed 3 straight quality starts, and the A's have won 4 of his 6 starts on the season. This is a bit of a head-scratcher, the line at least.

Angels @ Royals (-110) with a total of 9
Bobby Abreu is 3-for-5 with 3 RBI off Hochevar;
Howie Kendrick is 2-for-2 with an RBI off Hochevar;
Willie Bloomquist is 3-for-8 off Santana;
David DeJesus is 9-for-21 off Santana;
Chris Getz is 4-for-7 off Santana.
This is an interesting match-up in that neither starter has really pitched well against the other team, but both are coming in hot. After a tough start to the year, Santana has turned things around - the Angels have won his last 3 starts, and 6 of his last 8. Hochevar has an ERA against Anaheim of 17.18, though it's in just a single start. Still, KC has won his last 2 outings, and he's gone 17 innings in those 2 starts, so he's been efficient with pitches, too. The Royals are definitely playing better baseball, and we know they can hit. I wonder if the Over isn't a possibility, though I really wish we could have gotten this at 8.5 instead of 9. Something to keep an eye on.

Rays (-140) @ Blue Jays with a total of 8.5
Hank Blalock was 4-for-6 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Morrow before 2010;
Aaron Hill was 6-for-18 off Garza before 2010.
Brandon Morrow, for all his faults, has actually been decent against the Rays, allowing just 2 runs over 6 innings the one time he faced them this year. Garza, surprisingly, allowed 5 runs in 5 innings to the Jays. That being said, Garza is 6-4 with a 2.19 ERA against Toronto lifetime, so I have to think that bad start earlier this year was the deviation, not the norm. Garza is too tough, even off a bad start against the Red Sox, to take the dog odds, but the Jays hit enough homers that I'm not sure I would lay the big chalk with the road club, either.

Twins (-115) @ Mariners with a total of 7
Ichiro is 6-for-17 with an RBI off Liriano.
This is a match-up of upper-tier starters that are both in the process of coming back to their expected numbers. Liriano went 3 starts at the beginning of the season without allowing a run, but then gave up at least 3 runs in 4 straight outings. His last time on the hill, Liriano went 7 strong frames against the Yanks, giving up 2 runs, so perhaps he's finding some confidence, again. Doug Fister, unlike Liriano, hasn't been near-perfect one day, and poor the next. He's been pretty darn good just about every time out, never allowing more than 3 earned runs in any one start. If the Mariners could hit, he'd be in real good shape, but they can't, and that means that backing Seattle is always going to be a crapshoot. Here's the real issue - Minnesota just finished a 3-game set at home with the Rangers, and they're flying 2 time zones West, while Seattle heads North from SoCal after playing an earlier game. Minnesota is going to experience some lag either tonight or tomorrow, and that's another factor that makes this one a tough game to pull the trigger on, for either side.

Tips and Trends

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

Rockies: Colorado is making their patented move up the National League standings right now. The Rockies have won 7 of their past 10 games, and are 26-23 on the year. Colorado is 11-15 away from home this year, as they look to get a step closer to .500. The Rockies are 2-7 in their past 9 meetings overall with the Giants. Colorado is averaging nearly 7 runs per game over their past 6 contests. The Rockies will send arguably the best pitcher in baseball to the mound today in Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez is 9-1 this year, with an ERA of 0.88 and a WHIP of 0.93. The Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Colorado is 2-12 in their last 14 during game 1 of a series. The Rockies are 4-0 in Jimenez's last 4 starts against a team with a winning record. Colorado is 6-1 in Jimenez's last 7 starts against the National League West.

Rockies are 4-1 last 5 road games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-4 last 13 Monday games.

Key Injuries - 2B Eric Young (shin) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Giants (-110, O/U 6): San Francisco is playing well, as they've won 3 straight games to stand at 26-22 on the year. The Giants are right in the middle of the hotly contested National League West standings. San Francisco has scored 22 runs in their past 3 games, so their offense is starting to play to the level of their brilliant pitching staff. Speaking of brilliant, P Tim Lincecum is again pitching like a Cy Young candidate. Lincecum is 5-1 this year, with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.12. Surprisingly, 7 of the 9 games started by Lincecum this year have gone over the posted total. The Giants are 25-9 in their last 34 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Giants are 21-10 in their last 31 during game 1 of a series. San Francisco is 6-1 in Lincecums' last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Giants are 20-8 in Lincecums' last 28 home starts.

Giants are 6-1 last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Under is 8-2-1 last 11 home games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - SS Edgar Renteria (hamstring) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 2

New York Mets at San Diego Padres

Mets: New York has climbed the mountain, as they are back over .500 after a dismal start to their season. The Mets have won 7 of their past 10 games, and are now 26-25 on the year. New York is in 3rd place in the National League East, 3 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies. New York has been dominant at home and dismal on the road. The Mets are a paltry 7-16 on the road this season. In one of the most drastic unit differentials in the majors this year, New York is up 1 unit overall but up over 11 units on the run line. The Mets will have P Hisanori Takahashi on the mound today, as he makes his 3rd start of the season. Takahashi has been valuable for the Mets, as he can be both a spot starter and a relief option. Takahasi is 4-1 this year, with an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 1.24. The Mets are 1-8 in the last 9 meetings in San Diego. New York is 17-36 in their last 53 road games against a right-handed starter. New York is 3-7 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 games during game 1 of a series.

Mets are 6-1 last 7 against the National League West.
Under is 13-3 last 16 during game 1 of a series.

Key Injuries - CF Carlos Beltran (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 2

Padres (-110, O/U 6.5): San Diego continues to be the surprise team in baseball this season. With a small payroll and a relatively unknown team, expectations were low. The Padres have proven that good pitching and good team chemistry can be a successful combination for a small market team. The Padres have the best record in the entire National League at 30-20. San Diego is up over 12 units this season, including 11 units on the run line. P Kevin Correia will take the mound today, as he is 4-4 on the season with an ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 1.32. San Diego is 5 games over .500 at home and on the road this year. The Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 games against a left-handed starter. San Diego is 5-0 in Correia's last 5 starts against the National League East. The Padres are 8-3 in Correia's last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.

Padres are 10-4 last 14 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%.
Under is 7-3 last 10 home games.

Key Injuries - SS Everth Cabrera (hamstring) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)