Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Only four games on Monday, so our pickings were a bit slimmer. We go with just one hurler in each of the categories. Even worse, the two faceoff today in Los Angeles. It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out we like the Halos today.
Streaking
Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels
This lefty is in the process of salvaging what appeared to be a nightmare season. Saunders has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts and the Halos are 6-1 over the same stretch.
Saunders pitched a complete game and surrendered just one run in his last start.
“I was getting quick outs,” Saunders told the Associated Press after the game. “When you feel comfortable on the mound and everything feels right, confidence is key.”
Slumping
Randy Wolf, Milwaukee Brewers
They say the road to recovery doesn’t begin until you hit rock bottom. The Milwaukee Brewers hope struggling hurler Randy Wolf found that dark hole in his last outing.
The lefy veteran allowed five home runs and was charged with eight earned runs in under five innings of work against the light-hitting Cubs. It was the fourth time in six starts the former Dodger allowed five or more runs.
"I have to deal with it and try and get better,” Wolf told reports following the 9-4 setback to Chicago. “I'm making a lot of mistakes out there and I'm not getting away with any of them. I'm better than that. I've just got to find a way to get better than that.”
Monday Four Play
By Judd Hall
It’s a light night in Major League Baseball on Monday with four games of interleague action set to go off. We’ll start off in St. Louis with the Cards hosting the Mariners, then have three late night tests to keep us from sleeping. Let’s break it all down.
Mariners (23-39, -1,841) at Cardinals (34-28, -584) – 7:10 p.m. EDT, ESPN
Before the start of this season, this series looked like it would be a battle of division leaders. What we got instead is a basement dweller and a team that is playing too inconsistent to keep a hold of first place.
Seattle is floundering around in last place in the American League West thanks to a lineup that has no pop (.243 team batting average, 34 home runs) and so-so starting pitchers (two hurlers with an earned run average above 6.00).
Luke French (0-0, 6.35) takes over Ian Snell’s spot in the Mariners’ starting rotation on Monday night. The southpaw gave up four earned runs in 5.1 innings of relief work of Snell last Wednesday in a 12-2 drubbing at the hands of the Rangers in Arlington. French did work as a starter midway through the 2009 campaign for both the M’s and Tigers, going 4-5 with a 5.29 ERA. The ‘over’ is 4-1-1 in his five career road starts.
The Cardinals are coming into this game having won just four of their last 10 games of the season to stay behind Cincinnati in the National League Central. Adam Wainwright (8-4, 2.30) is just the man you want to send out to the hill to get things back on track for St. Louis. Wainwright has been absolutely automatic with a 5-0 record and two complete games to go along with a 1.62 ERA at Busch Stadium.
The Mariners have been awful on the road this year, evidenced by an 8-22 record. Tighten that up to the M’s being road pups and you’ll see they are 3-17, including a five-game slide.
St. Louis has gone 18-10 as a home favorite this season, winning seven of its last 10 in this role. The ‘over’ is 6-3-1 in those 10 battles.
Blue Jays (34-28, +1,019) at Padres (37-25, +1,558) – 10:05 p.m. EDT
Perhaps it was only a matter of time before the Blue Jays’ offense dried up.
Toronto has knocked the ball out of the park 99 times during the season to lead all big league clubs. In the Jays’ last five games, however, they have hit just two home runs. Not a good sign for a team that is averaging 1.5 homers per game. It makes you wonder if they might be sellers when the trade deadline comes around.
Shaun Marcum (5-3, 3.38) can’t hit home runs for the Jays, but he can keep it close enough for a little small ball to matter. Marcum is aiming to avenge his last start last Wednesday in Tampa, allowing seven earned runs in four innings of work in a 10-1 rout by the Rays. Toronto responds well when he pitches on the road this year, evidenced by a 4-2 mark.
San Diego doesn’t have the bats that the Blue Jays possess, but they do have great pitching. And they’ll be sending out Jon Garland (6-4, 2.81) to open this series. Garland may have lost his last two starts on the road, but both were solid efforts. The Padres’ ace has gone 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA at Petco Park this season. And the Pads have gone 5-1 overall in his six home starts.
The Pads have gone 10-6 as home faves this season, winning four straight in this role. The ‘under’ is 8-6-2 as well.
Toronto has gone 6-12 as a road pup against NL West foes since 2002 with the ‘under’ going 13-5.
Brewers (26-35, -967) at Angels (35-30, +548) – 10:05 p.m. EDT
The Brewers are hitting the road for six games after having a relatively successful six-game homestand. Milwaukee has not enjoyed its trips out of town as of late, winning just four of its last 14 road tests.
For the Brew Crew to start this road trip on a positive, Randy Wolf (4-6, 5.31) will need to step it up on the mound. Wolf has lost seven of his last nine starts this season. Unfortunately for Milwaukee backers, Wolf is 2-4 with a 5.66 ERA in six road appearances this season.
The Halos are hot on the Rangers’ heels in the AL West right now, having won eight of their last 10 games. And Los Angeles is expecting to stay on a tear with Joe Saunders (5-6, 4.35) on the mound. The Angels’ southpaw has helped guide them to six wins in his last seven starts. The only major issue to keep in mind is that Saunders is 1-5 with an ERA of 6.34 in seven home starts in 2010.
Milwaukee has dropped four of six road matches against the AL West since 2002 with the ‘under’ going 3-2-1.
Los Angeles is 13-10 as a home “chalk” this year. However, they have won 12 of its past 18 games in Orange County. The Angels have also won four of their last five as home faves against teams from the NL Central.
Orioles (16-45, -2,345) at Giants (34-27, +254) – 10:15 p.m. EDT
The final game of the even is for those bettors that really have nothing else better to do.
There isn’t too much good to talk about when the Orioles are being discussed. This is a unit that has gone 12-28 since the calendar turned over to May. And Baltimore has gone 3-15 in 18 road matches during that time. Chris Tillman (0-2, 5.54) will take the start for the O’s. He’s coming off a good outing against the Yanks on June 9, holding them to two earned runs in six innings of work.
San Francisco will open this series up with Jonathan Sanchez (4-5, 2.82) getting the start. The Giants haven’t have gone 3-5 in his last eight starts. Sanchez has done quite well in the majority of those outings, just being plagued by the inability of the Giants to reach home plate. He is 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA in six starts at AT&T Park.
The ‘under’ is a sound investment for this game as the Orioles have seen it go 21-9-1 when they’re posted as road underdogs.
The Giants are a great home favorite, evidenced by an 18-8 record this season. Against the run line (-1 ½-runs), however, San Fran is just 12-14. They have won five of its last seven matches as a home favorite against the AL East.
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Tips and Trends
Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres
Blue Jays: Toronto is starting to slide back in the brutally difficult American League East standings, as they've lost 7 of their last 10 games overall. The Blue Jays are 34-29 this season, yet are only 4th in their own division. Playing in the most difficult division can be downright unfair, but that's life in the AL East. Toronto has a winning record both at home and on the road this season. Toronto is +9.53 and +21.27 units both SU and on the RL this season. P Shaun Marcum will take the mound today, as he's been one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball this year. Marcum is 5-3 with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.12 this year. The Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games against a right-handed starter. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in Marcum's last 7 starts on grass. Toronto is 7-2 in Marcum's last 9 starts as a road underdog. Toronto is 5-2 in Marcum's last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Blue Jays are 1-4 in Marcum's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Blue Jays are 1-6 last 7 games as a road underdog.
Over is 10-2 last 12 against the National League West.
Key Injuries - SS Josh McDonald (personal) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)
Padres (-120, O/U 6.5): Even with a rather rare home loss, San Diego continues to lead the National League standings. The team that won't go away is now 37-26 for the season. Perhaps experts and opposition need to take this team more seriously, as they have the best pitching staff in baseball. San Diego will send P Jon Garland to the mound today, as he is 6-4 with an ERA of 2.81 and a WHIP of 1.32 this year. The Padres are one of the select few teams in MLB that is up double digit units both SU and on the RL this year. San Diego is +14.87 and +10.75 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. San Diego is 7-2 in their last 9 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague home games against a right-handed starter. San Diego is 5-1 in Garlands last 6 home starts. The Padres are 4-1 in Garlands last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Padres are 8-0 last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 6-1 last 7 interleague home games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - SS Everth Cabrera (hamstring) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels
Brewers: Milwaukee is one of the few teams in baseball that likes life out on the road. Milwaukee lost another home game yesterday, to stand only 11-19 at home this year. On the road, the Brewers are a respectable 15-18. It all adds up to a record of 26-37, placing them 9.5 games behind the National League Central leading Reds. The Brewers simply can't put together a stretch of playing well both on offense and pitching. As a result, Milwaukee is double digits in the hole both SU and on the RL this year. The Brewers are -11.98 and -12.24 units both SU and respectively this year. Veteran P Randy Wolf will look to stop the bleeding, despite his own woes of late. Wolf has pitched poorly of late, and is only 4-6 this year with an ERA of 5.31 and a WHIP of 1.63. The Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter. Milwaukee is 1-5 in their last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Brewers are 1-5 in Wolf's last 6 starts. The Brewers are 0-4 in Wolf's last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Brewers are 3-13 last 16 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Over is 7-2 last 9 interleague road games.
Key Injuries - C Gregg Zaun (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5
Angels (-165, O/U 9.5): There might not be a hotter team in baseball right now than the Los Angeles Angels. Los Angeles has been extra hot of late while playing on the road, making their recent stretch of play all the more impressive. The Angels have turned their season around, as they are now fighting with Texas for the American League West division lead. Lefty Joe Saunders will get the start tonight, as he will look to lead his team to a 4th straight win when he starts. Saunders is turning his season around as we speak, as he is currently 5-6 with an ERA of 4.35 and a WHIP of 1.49. The Angels are 14-2 in their last 16 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Los Angeles is 4-1 in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter. The Angels are 4-0 in Saunders' last 4 starts against a team with a losing record. The Angels are 7-1 in Saunders' last 8 interleague starts. Los Angeles is 1-4 in Saunders' last 5 starts as a home favorite of
-151 to -200.
Angels are 20-9 last 29 interleague home games.
Over is 10-3-1 last 14 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Key Injuries - 3B Brandon Wood (hip) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total of the Day)
MLB RoundUp For 6/14
By Dan Bebe
Interleague Play
Mariners @ Cardinals (-300) with a total of 7.5
This is an awfully pricey game, considering the Mariners really aren't that horrible. I could see, perhaps, the Pirates and maybe the Orioles as a dog this huge in St. Louis, but the Mariners? Oh well, we'll take what we're given. Lucas French gets the nod, acquired last year in a trade with the Tigers, the lefty throws mostly batting practice fastballs and a good changeup, and I wonder if the Cards don't struggle a tad to adjust to his stuff. What we saw last year was that French was effective his first and second time through a lineup, but once teams knew he was somewhat gimmicky, they started hitting him hotter. Mariners in the first-5 innings isn't insane, Mariners for the full game is risky, and Cardinals for the full game is all kinds of nutty at this price. Leans: Mariners
Brewers @ Angels (-165) with a total of 9.5
Carlos Gomez is 4-for-8 off Saunders;
Juan Rivera is 3-for-3 off Wolf since '05 with a HR;
Robb Quinlan is 4-for-6 off Wolf.
Joe Saunders is coming off 2 consecutive very strong starts, and the Angels are absolutely red-hot right now. The big concern on the Angels side is that Fernando Rodney and Brian Fuentes, if I'm not mistaken (and we can look this up) worked in each of the final 2 games of their series sweep over the Dodgers. So, what was good for us yesterday in our play on the Angels, would be scary today if we played the Angels against the Brewers. Who would close the game for LA? Tough to say, when both the setup man and closer need a day off. On the Brewers side, well, they just continue to stink at home, but have started to play a tiny bit better on the road, no thanks to Randy Wolf. Wolf got crushed for 5 homers in his last start against the Cubbies, and with the Angels hitting as well as they have been, this doesn't look like a good spot for him. His 6.35 lifetime ERA against LA doesn't make it look any better. Leans: Angels, Over
Blue Jays @ Padres (-120) with a total of 7
Situationally, this is not a great spot for Toronto. They come to Petco off a very, very tough series in the Rockies, and those of us (such as myself) that have watched the Dodgers play in Colorado for so many years have come to understand that the series immediately following one in Coors is heavily reliant on the starting pitching, since the pen generally gets blown out in the altitude. So, here, Marcum is going to need to go deep in the game, and to his credit, he certainly can. The Padres are more patient than most folks realize, though, and they have no issue making aces work extremely hard, and staying aggressive on the bases. This is seemingly a battle of two starters that probably need to regress to the mean a tad. Marcum is coming off 2 rough starts against the Rays, and Garland didn't pitch all that well on the Padres roadie through Philly and New York. So, which guy bounces back quicker? We know Garland has been a wizard at leaving men on base at home, and we know Toronto likes to score with that uppercut swing. I can't help but think that that series in Coors is really going to hurt the Jays. Leans: Padres
Orioles @ Giants (-205) with a total of 7.5
Here come the radioactive Orioles again. After showing signs of life for 1 day, they got swept at home by the Mets, who, supposedly, stink on the road. That's a true testament to how bad the Orioles are this year. Now, they have to fly cross-country to take on a guy with some of the nastiest stuff in the Bigs, when he can harness it. I have to believe he'll harness it, here. The O's can't hit with runners on base, and now we're putting them in a giant pitchers' park. I'm intrigued by that extremely low total. I know the O's can't really score, but the Giants have actually been playing to the over in 8 of 9 prior to last night, and if you count yesterday's as an over (instead of a push) it's 9 of 10. They're not scoring 10 runs a game, but the Giants have been getting to 5 or 6 pretty consistently, with a couple 3's mixed in there. The Orioles had played to 4 straight unders prior to yesterday's game, and considering how bad the O's pen is, I just wonder if San Francisco doesn't put up 6-7 runs by themselves. I guess it depends on how well you think Tillman pitches, and he'll be okay. Leans: Over