Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners
This Cy Young winner was brought to the northwest in hopes of helping the M’s challenge for the AL West. And while the Mariners season hasn’t gone as well as many Seattle fans hoped, Lee has been as good as advertised.
The lefty is playing for a new contract and if his numbers keep up, he’ll command a big figure in the offseason. Lee has an ERA under 3.00, batters are hitting just .225 and he’s surrendering fewer any a runner per inning.
But this best stat has to be his strikeout to walk ratio. Lee has 50 K’s compared to just four walks in 52 and 2/3 innings this season. The best part is you can usually get Lee at a cheap price because the Mariners have been so bad this season.
Carlos Silva, Chicago Cubs
It’s been too long now. We can no longer call Carlos Silva’s 2010 campaign a fluke. The Cubs hurler enjoyed his finest outing of the season last week against the Cardinals. He pitched seven innings of two-hit ball, didn’t allow a run or a walk and struck out 11.
"It's pretty easy to be back there when he can throw a pitch exactly where you want it. His game seems like you don't have to do anything, you just kind of steer the reins in one direction or another and let the big boy do what he does best. He was really, really, good today," Chicago catcher Koyie Hill told reporters after the game.
The result extended Chicago’s win streak to nine games whenever Silva takes the mound, so yeah.. he’s pretty hot right now.
Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves
For a second straight day we’ve got an Atlanta pitcher in the streaking section. Probably explains why the club has been playing so well lately.
The Braves would have traded for Lowe a pack of gum in the offseason after a brutal end to the 2009 campaign. This year didn’t start much better but Lowe shook off those early struggles and appears to have rediscovered his former form.
The former Dodger and Red Sox ace has four quality starts in his last five outings and he’s surrendered just two earned runs in his last 15 innings pitched. The sinker-ball hurler credits his turnaround with relying more on his changeup. Whatever he’s doing, it’s definitely working.
Slumping
Dana Eveland, Pittsburgh Pirates
This is the third go-around in the last two seasons for Eveland. The Oakland A’s showed him the door last winter and the Jays did the same after an unimpressive month of May.
So Eveland is Pittsburgh now hoping to keep a job in the big leagues. If you don’t remember how bad things got before Toronto cut ties with him, here’s a brief reminder: last three starts – 9 and 1/3 innings pitched, 17 earned runs, 10 walks, five strikeouts and two home runs.
Wade LeBlanc, San Diego Padres
After opening the season with back-to-back wins, LeBlanc has fallen off the momentum wagon over the past month. He is 0-4 over his last four starts, but even more troubling are the short appearances he is making lately.
LeBlanc has lasted just 14 total innings in his last three starts, allowing as many earned runs. It makes for an easy to calculate but hard to figure ERA of 9.00.
Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians
Frustration has set in for Carmona, who hasn't received much run support or defensive help from the Indians recently. In his last three starts, all losses, Carmona has allowed just nine earned runs in 20 innings of work.
Unfortauntely for him, the Indians have scored just six combined runs in his last three starts. They also committed four errors to prolong Carmona's time on the mound and the pressure on his shoulders.
The impact of those silent bats and fielding mistakes seem to have shattered Carmona's confidence he had earlier in the season.
MLB RoundUp For 6/7
By Dan Bebe
National League
Cubs (-155) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
With the way the Cubs keep shifting starters around, this one probably won't even be Silva by the early morning. But, assuming it is, you have to think Chicago has its best chance to finally put together a couple wins against the Pirates. Dana Eveland has been just incredibly bad, and after all we heard about his new mindset, Eveland's stuff is still the same. Carlos Silva is 7-0 on the season, and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA against Pittsburgh, but we've all seen how the Cubs play against Pittsburgh this season. I'd love to fade Eveland, especially with the consistency we've seen from Silva, but until the Cubs look like they have any prayer of figuring out the Pirates, that isn't going to happen. Leans: None
Padres @ Phillies (-180) with a total of 9
David Eckstein is 3-for-6 with an RBI off Hamels;
Scott Hairston is 4-for-10 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Hamels;
Chase Headley is 3-for-9 with 2 RBI off Hamels.
Hamels is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA against the Padres, and while Scott Hairston continues to mash lefties, this series has been decidedly Phils-friendly. The Padres finally got themselves a close one yesterday, and managed to squeak it out in extra-innings, but it's really taking some powerhouse efforts for them to keep up. And that's just the thing for San Diego - they are going to win close games, and they can keep games close with about 85% of the teams in the MLB, but when they go head-to-head with the better offensive teams, even one in a slump, they have some issues. Hamels is having a better 2010, though his last rain-shortened start didn't help his ERA. LeBlanc hasn't looked that great lately, and while he pitched well enough against the Mets, it seems like teams are starting to figure out his new delivery and new pitch selection. Leans: None
Giants @ Reds (-130) with a total of 8
Freddy Sanchez is 4-for-12 off Cueto;
Brandon Phillips is 4-for-10 off Zito with an RBI.
I desperately want to find a way to fade Barry Zito, since I still feel like he's overvalued, and the Giants remain a huge question mark on the road, but recent trends make me a tad nervous. Zito is coming off a very strong start against the Rockies. Yes, he always pitches well against Colorado, and his lifetime 3-2 record and 7.13 ERA against the Reds makes me think that the Colorado start didn't mean a great deal, but he should, at least, have some confidence. Cueto, on the other hand, has never started against the Giants, and is coming off an outing where he gave up 8 runs to the Cardinals. Cueto's having a solid year, and the Reds are getting the job done day in and day out. This one is a tougher call than it should be. Leans: Reds
Astros @ Rockies (-170) with a total of 9
Michael Bourn is 4-for-7 off Hammel with 1 RBI;
Todd Helton is 11-for-22 with 5 RBI off Rodriguez;
Ryan Spilborghs is 5-for-13 with a HR and 2 RBI off Rodriguez.
Hammel is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA against the Astros, and Wandy Rodriguez continues to struggle through 2010, going 3-7 so far, and a terribly 5.07 ERA on top of that. Rodriguez is coming off one of his better starts, going 5 innings and allowing 1 run to the Nationals, but can we really call that a turning point? Wandy's been just fine at Coors in his career, posting an ERA in the 3's, but I just can't quite trust him enough, especially with Hammel trending up. Leans: None
Braves @ Diamondbacks (-123) with a total of 9
Melky Cabrera is 4-for-10 off Haren;
Omar Infante is 4-for-9 off Haren;
Brian McCann is 3-for-8 with a HR and 3 RBI off Haren;
Nate McLouth is 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Haren;
Stephen Drew is 15-for-31 with a HR off Lowe;
Mark Reynolds is 7-for-22 with 4 RBI off Lowe;
Justin Upton is 5-for-8 off Lowe.
This is an odd match-up, as the D'backs tend to play the Braves relatively tough, and Arizona appears to have regained some sort of offensive stroke since returning home off a miserable roadie. The Braves come to town, still pretty hot, though not quite as blindingly hot as when they left home, themselves. Atlanta is coming off a pretty tough series with the Dodgers, so I wonder if they're in any kind of letdown spot. Still, Derek Lowe has a career 3.68 ERA against the D'backs, and Haren has an ugly career 6.44 ERA against the Braves, and that makes Atlanta look a little tempting. Leans: Braves
Cardinals @ Dodgers with a total of N/A
No data, here, but we can assume the Dodgers are going to be reasonable favorites with St. Louis sending a no-name to the hill. Walters is coming off an ugly outing, and the Dodgers can really hit, so the question lies with how these teams handle the head-to-head battle. The Cardinals have had the Dodgers number in the regular season for quite some time, though LA has been able to take care of the Cards in the Playoffs, so who has the edge? I guess every year is a new year, but I'm not sure I feel comfortable backing the Dodgers against a team that just rolls into LA and always plays extra hard. Let's wait on some lines, here, and then reassess, but I have a feeling the value of backing a middle reliever-turned-starter for LA is just not going to be all that great. Leans: Dodgers
American League
Red Sox (-155) @ Indians with a total of 9
David Ortiz is 4-for-8 with a HR and 4 RBI off Carmona;
Marco Scutaro is 7-for-18 off Carmona;
Jason Varitek is 3-for-6 off Carmona;
Travis Hafner is 3-for-8 off Matsuzaka.
This is a rather short line for the Red Sox on the road, but I suppose Daisuke is the reason. Matsuzaka seems to be alternating decent starts and bad ones, and if we go on that trend, today would be a bad one. I offered the thought that perhaps Daisuke's arm is just not strong enough to start every 5 days and go deep in the game. I don't know if it's still arm fatigue, but that would point us to Carmona. There are plenty of notes pointing us away from Carmona, though, including his 1-2 record against Boston, 5.94 ERA against Boston, and his usual inability to go deep in the ballgame. Still, laying -155 on the road with a guy on pace for a bad start is obviously the worse of the two evils. Leans: Indians
Mariners (-130) @ Rangers with a total of 8.5
Franklin Gutierrez is 4-for-10 with 3 RBI off Feldman;
Josh Hamilton is 4-for-10 off Lee;
Ian Kinsley is 7-for-13 with 5 RBI off Lee;
Michael Young is 6-for-20 with 2 RBI off Lee.
Prior to going 7 shutout innings against Texas earlier this season, the Rangers had been a team that had given Cliff Lee all kinds of issues in his career. He has a career 9.19 ERA at Rangers Ballpark at Arlington, and given his lifetime 6.15 ERA against Texas, it's easy to see that he's been significantly worse down in Texas than he was against the Rangers elsewhere. So, this is a fade spot for an ace. But what about the other cat? Scott Feldman has been a disaster this year, but he did pitch well against Seattle back in April, and I wonder if he can't harness some of that again here, with the Rangers really hitting well on this homestand so far. He's 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA against the Mariners. Leans: Rangers
Angels @ Athletics (-125) with a total of 8.5
Jack Cust is 4-for-12 off Kazmir.
Alright, this is a tough one. Any time you're handicapping a pitcher with a ceiling as high as Kazmir, but whose performances have been nothing short of unbearable, there's always the possibility he comes out and throws a gem. Kazmir is, in fact, coming off a pretty decent start against the Royals. His leash is shorter than most Angels starters, considering how much he's stunk, but with an upward trend and a lifetime 8-3, 2.96 mark against Oakland, this is certainly a team that he COULD potentially have success against. Sheets made his first start of 2010 against the Angels, and gave a quality outing, nothing more. He's been relatively consistent, lately, good enough to beat a bad Kazmir, but not good enough to beat a lights out version of Kazmir. Leans: Angels
Tips and Trends
Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians
Red Sox (-150, O/U 9): Boston has quickly climbed back into the American League East standings with numerous victories over the past month. The Red Sox stand at 33-25 on the year, 4.5 games behind Tampa Bay. Offensively, there isn't a hotter team in baseball than Boston. It seems likes daily the Red Sox are plating at least 8 runs per game. Boston is 4 games over .500 both at home and on the road this year. The Red Sox are +2.19 and -5.47 units respectively both SU and on the RL this year. P Daisuke Matsuzaka is pitching tonight, and he is 4-2 with an ERA of 5.49 and a WHIP of 1.41 this year. The Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed starter. Boston is 12-4 in their last 16 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Red Sox are 12-3 in Matsuzaka's last 15 starts as a road favorite. Boston is 15-6 in Matsuzaka's last 21 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Red Sox are 7-0 last 7 road games.
Over is 18-6-2 last 26 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400%.
Key Injuries - RF Jeremy Hermida (forearm) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side of the Day)
Indians: It appears that another long summer is in order, as Cleveland has the 2nd worst record in the American League. Cleveland is 21-34 this year, 11.5 games behind the AL Central lead. The Indians are only 8-14 at home this year, a record they must improve on. The Indians are also without their overall best player, Grady Sizemore for the rest of the season. Cleveland is -5.72 and -12.36 units respectively both SU and on the RL this year. P Fausto Carmona will take the mound today, looking to snap an extended losing streak. Carmona is 4-4 this year, with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.30. The Indians are 18-38 in their last 56 games against a right-handed starter. Cleveland is 0-4 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Indians are 1-4 in Carmona's last 5 starts as a home underdog. Cleveland is 0-6 in Carmona's last 6 starts against a team with a winning record.
Indians are 16-35 last 51 home games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-1 last 10 games a home underdog.
Key Injuries - CF Grady Sizemore (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Padres: San Diego simply competes in every game this year, and that's why this team is able to win so many 1 run games. The Padres are dominant in 1 run games this year, proof of how good this pitching staff is from top to bottom. San Diego outhit the Phillies yesterday, and will try for a series split tonight on the road. San Diego is currently 33-23 on the season, tied for the best mark in the National League. The Padres are 15-11 this year on the road. San Diego is up double digit units both SU and on the RL overall this year. Lefty Wade LeBlanc will take the mound today, looking for a quality start. LeBlanc has really struggled of late, and is 2-4 with an ERA of 3.67 and a WHIP of 1.55 for the entire season. LeBlanc is 0-3 with an ERA over 9 and a WHIP over 2 in his past 3 starts combined. The Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. San Diego is 4-0 in LeBlanc's last 4 road starts against a team with a winning record. San Diego is 6-2 in LeBlanc's last 8 road starts. The Padres are 0-4 in LeBlanc's last 4 starts overall.
Padres are 14-5 last 19 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Under is 11-0-1 last 12 games with the total set between 9 and 10.5 runs.
Key Injuries - RF Will Venable (neck) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Phillies (-180, O/U 9): Philadelphia has tapered off a bit over their past 10 games, going only 4-6 in that span. Philadelphia needs to step on the gas again, because they trail Atlanta by 2.5 games in the National League East division. The Phillies have rekindled their offense over their past few games against San Diego, the best pitching staff in baseball. Philadelphia is 15-11 at home this year, and are -2.79 and +3.57 units respectively both SU and on the RL this year. Lefty Cole Hamels will look to beat his hometown team today. Hamels is 5-4 this year, with an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.46. The Phillies are 5-11 in their last 16 games against a left-handed starter. Philadelphia is 1-8 in their last 9 home games against a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Philadelphia is 5-1 in Hamels' last 6 starts as a home favorite. Philadelphia is 28-12 in Hamels' last 40 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Phillies are 5-0 last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 6-1-1 last 8 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - SS Jimmy Rollins (calf) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 7 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
Monday’s pro baseball slate features eight evening games on tap and six of the battles are non-divisional contests. Let’s take a closer look at all of the matchups.
Sizzling Sox
Even though Boston was nipped 4-3 by Baltimore in 11 innings on Sunday, it’s still one of the hottest teams in the majors. The Red Sox have now won 14 of 19, which includes an 8-2 mark on the road during this span. Boston will stay on the road for another four games, starting Monday in Cleveland. The Indians just wrapped up a 10-game road trip, which saw the team go 4-6.
This will be the first meeting between the two clubs this year and if it’s anything like last season, then expect domination by Boston. The Red Sox won seven of the nine meetings, all coming by two runs or more, helping bettors cash on the run-line as well. The ‘over’ went 6-3 in the nine games, and 3-1 in the four battles from Jacobs Field.
The total for this showdown is hovering around 9 runs, which could be a tad high considering the starters. Daisuke Matsuzaka (4-2, 5.49 ERA) has been up and down this year but he’s only surrendered six earned runs and 13 hits over his last three starts (19 1/3 innings). Countering Dice-K will be Fausto Carmona (4-4, 3.53 ERA). Even though the Indians have only won four of his 11 starts, it hasn’t been fault as much as the Tribe’s offense. The attack has been stifled to four runs or less in eight of his appearances.
Fourth and Final
San Diego hopes to earn a split with Philadelphia as the pair wraps up a four-game set. The Phillies stifled the Padres 3-2 and 6-2 behind Roy Halladay and Jamie Moyer in the first two contests but Joe Blanton and the bullpen couldn’t help the club win on Sunday. San Diego captured a 6-5 decision in 10 innings behind an offense that put up 16 hits.
The Phillies send Cole Hamels (5-4, 4.20 ERA) to the hill and the lefthander has been much better at home (3-1, 2.94 ERA) this season. The team has won four of his five starts and he hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs during that span. Over his career, Hamels has faced San Diego seven times and he’s produced a 3-1 mark and 3.35 ERA.
Wade LeBlanc (2-4, 3.67 ERA) helped the Padres go 5-0 in his first five starts but that run has come to a screeching halt. The lefty is 0-4 in his last four trips to the mound, giving up 24 hits and 15 earned runs over this span. And his offense has been limited to three runs or less in three of the four setbacks. The Phillies have gone 1-6 against southpaws at home this season, including 1-4 in nighttime games.
Home Chalk
San Francisco at Cincinnati (-130): The Giants started their seven-game road trip by taking two of three in Pittsburgh, while the Red finished up a six-game road swing with a pedestrian 3-3 ledger. Barry Zito (6-2, 2.78 ERA) has been solid for the Giants this year and the offense has only produced a combined five runs in the four games that San Francisco has lost with the lefthander this season. The Reds have dominated southpaws (8-3) at home this year and they’ll have Johnyy Cueto (5-1, 4.09 ERA) taking the rubber. The Reds have won seven straight with Cueto on the hill, behind an offense that’s averaging 6.5 runs during this streak.
Houston at Colorado (-160): The Astros have struggled on the road (8-15) this season and the Rockies have been a real tough out at home (15-9). Neither the Rockies’ Jason Hammel (2-3, 6.09 ERA) nor the Astros’ Wandy Rodriguez (3-7, 5.07 ERA) have been stellar this season, so a pass could be in play. Based on their ERA’s, you could make a case for an ‘over’ play, which is considerably high (9.5) for this matchup between inconsistent offenses.
Atlanta at Arizona (-125): Why are the Diamondbacks (22-35) laying cash to the Braves (33-24) tonight? Dan Haren (5-4, 4.83 ERA) is on the hill for Arizona but he’s been inconsistent this year and the D-Backs have lost four of his last five starts. Plus, Atlanta has been playing great baseball (10-2 L12) and its sending out Derek Lowe (8-4, 4.44 ERA), who has been sharp during his recent three-game winning streak. When the numbers look too good, they’re usually not. Be careful for this one.
AL West Action
This division has turned into a three-horse race, with Texas holding a one-game lead over the Angels and Athletics. It’s still early, but the Mariners are 7 ½ behind the Rangers and their offense continues to struggle. All four teams will be going head-to-head tonight.
Mariners at Rangers: Texas has already captured five of the first six battles against Seattle this year, which includes two of three at home. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 over this span. Despite the early domination, the Mariners have been installed as favorites with Cliff Lee (3-2, 2.91 ERA) on the mound. After coming up short in his first two starts, Seattle has won four of five when Lee is on the mound. The Rangers will counter with Scott Feldman (3-5, 5.82 ERA), who already beat Seattle 9-2 in early April.
Angels at Athletics: Los Angeles has finally found its groove, winning five in a row and eight of the last 10. That’s not a good sign for Oakland either, because the Angels have already taken four of the first six head-to-head battles this year as well. The A’s have gone 5-5 over their last 10 and will look to Ben Sheets (2-4, 5.00 ERA) tonight. Oakland has won three of his last four appearances and his career ERA versus L.A. is 3.43 ERA over 21 innings. The Angels will pit their own crafty veteran, Scott Kazmir (4-5, 5.86 ERA), against the A’s tonight. The lefthander has been shaky this season but he does have solid numbers against Oakland (8-3, 2.96 ERA) over his career.
Playoff Rematch
The Dodgers swept the Cardinals 3-0 in last year’s National League Divisional Series, leaving a bitter taste with the Red Birds since all of the outcomes were tight. Los Angeles won all three games by a combined seven runs and it was aided by a pitching staff that only surrendered six runs in the three victories.
There’s a very good chance that these two could square off in the postseason again, considering where they sit right now. St. Louis sits atop the NL Central and L.A. is just a game back of San Diego in the NL West.
Both teams have been in good form lately, with each club winning seven of their last 10 battles. The difference is that the Cards have won six of their seven games by three runs or more, while all seven of the Dodgers’ victories have been by exactly one run.
Tonight’s pitching matchup won’t feature any of the top-shelf hurlers, as rookie Carlos Monasterios (2-0, 1.87 ERA) will go for the Dodgers and reliever Blake Hawksworth (0-2, 5.14 ERA) will help the Cards rotation with a spot start.
vegasinsider.com
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Angels at Athletics – The Angels are 8-0 since June 04, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $820. The Angels are 7-0 since June 16, 2009 within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a win in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $730.
Braves at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 7-0 since April 27, 2009 when Dan Haren starts at home in the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 since April 22, 2009 when Dan Haren starts after the team lost his last two starts for a net profit of $500.
Cardinals at Dodgers – The Cardinals are 0-6 since September 29, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $665 when playing against.
Red Sox at Indians – The Red Sox are 7-0 since May 04, 2009 after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Red Sox are 7-0 since June 29, 2009 after a one run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Indians are 0-8 since April 12, 2010 at home when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $835 when playing against.
Padres at Phillies – The Padres are 4-0 since August 25, 2009 as a road 170+ dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $720. The Phillies are 9-0 since May 15, 2009 after a loss in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings for a net profit of $980. The Phillies are 7-0 since October 04, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $700. The Phillies are 0-4 since June 16, 2009 when Cole Hamels starts in June for a net profit of $535 when playing against.
Mariners at Rangers – The Mariners are 0-7 since April 12, 2010 as a favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-7 since April 12, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $795 when playing against.
Giants at Reds – The Giants are 5-0 since April 22, 2009 when Barry Zito starts as a dog vs a team that won their starters last three starts for a net profit of $705. The Reds are 7-0 since October 04, 2009 at home when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $750. The Reds are 5-0 since May 08, 2009 when Johnny Cueto starts as a home favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $500.
Astros at Rockies – The Astros are 0-7 since July 27, 2009 when Wandy Rodriguez starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $735 when playing against.. The Rockies are 9-0 since August 13, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $900. The Rockies are 0-5 since October 11, 2009 when Jason Hammel starts after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $505 when playing against..