Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Johnny Cueto (8-2, 3.42 ERA), Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are just 2-3 in Cueto’s last five starts but you can’t blame that on the righty. The Cincy ace owns a tidy 0.82 ERA since June 18 and the under is 4-1 in his last five outings.
Brett Cecil (8-5, 3.97 ERA), Toronto Blue Jays
It looks as though Cecil’s slide was just a minor blip on an otherwise impressive season. The young southpaw has allowed just two runs in his last two starts after surrendering 16 in previous three outings.
"It was just a matter of going out there and repeating my delivery, figuring out how to get the ball down after it's been up so long," Cecil told AP reporters after holding the Twins to one run over seven innings. "The ball was just flat. I didn't have downward tilt on it. Now I feel like I'm back where I need to be."
Slumping
Carlos Silva (9-3, 3.45 ERA), Chicago Cubs
You have to wonder if the lack of run support finally got to Chicago’s best hurler. Despite five quality outings from Silva, the Cubs were 1-4 in the big righthander’s last five starts before he took the mound against the Dodgers last week.
Los Angeles tagged him for six runs before he was ejected in the second inning.
"He wasn't driving off his back leg very well," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said after the game. "He should be much better his next time out, about eight or nine days from now."
Silva would certainly appreciate a little help from the bats. The Cubs are averaging just 2.8 runs per game in Silva’s last six trips to the bump.
Mike Pelfrey (10-4, 3.58 ERA), New York Mets
Pelfrey was originally scheduled to start on Saturday but was pushed back to Monday because of a stiff neck. Mets backers can relate: The big righty’s performance lately has been a pain in the neck for them.
The Kansas native has allowed four or more runs in four of his last five starts and he hasn’t pitched a more than 4 2/3 innings in any of his last three outings.
His last appearance might have been his worst of the campaign. He allowed 15 of 25 Braves hitters to reach base.
Monday's MLB Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
The division races and wild-card hunts are into full gear as we perspire our way through the month of July. The MLB card for Monday isn’t completely stacked, but there are certainly games galore. Let’s examine one game from each league that features four legit contenders.
**Rangers at Tigers**
Most books are listing Detroit (48-42, +379) as a minus-115 favorite with a total of 9 ½ ‘under’ (minus-115). Bettors can back the Tigers on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-175 payout (risk $100 to win $175).
Texas (53-39, +93) came out of the All-Star break strong, winning three of four from Boston at Fenway Park. The Rangers won a 4-2 decision Sunday behind C.J. Wilson’s 10 strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings. Wilson improved to 8-5, while closer Neftali Feliz collected his 24th save. Nelson Cruz went 2-for-4 with an RBI double.
Unlike Texas, Detroit couldn’t possibly have scripted a more sluggish start after the All-Star break. The Tigers took broom treatment in four games at Cleveland, including a 7-2 loss Sunday in the series finale at Jacobs Field. They have now lost five in a row going into Monday’s series opener vs. the Rangers.
Jim Leyland’s club owns a 32-13 home record at Comerica Park, while the Rangers are 22-20 on the road.
Despite its poor play recently, Detroit remains in a second-place tie in the American League Central with Minnesota. The Tigers and Twins are both 1 ½ games behind the loop-leading White Sox.
Texas is in first place in the AL West, four games ahead of the second-place Angels, who were still in action late Sunday afternoon with a chance to pull to within 3 ½ or fall to 4 ½ back.
Scott Feldman (5-8, 5.32) will get the starting nod for Texas in this spot. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in three career starts against the Tigers. Feldman is 3-5 with a bloated 5.94 ERA in eight road outings this season.
Jeremy Bonderman (5-6. 4.79) owns a 2-1 record and 4.93 ERA in seven lifetime starts against Texas. Bonderman, a righty, is 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA in nine home appearances (eight starts) this year.
The ‘under’ is 44-43 overall for the Rangers, 20-18 in their road assignments. Meanwhile, Detroit has seen the ‘over’ go 40-39 overall, but the ‘under’ is 23-19 in its home games.
The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. Eastern in Motown.
**Phillies at Cardinals**
Most betting shops have installed St. Louis (51-41, -491) as a minus-130 ‘chalk’ with a total of nine ‘under’ (minus-115). Gamblers can take the Cardinals on the run line for a plus-165 return.
Trailing the Dodgers by a 4-0 count going into the bottom of the eighth in Sunday’s series finale at Busch Stadium, St. Louis rallied to collect a 5-4 victory as a short home underdog. The win completed a four-game sweep of Los Angeles and gave the Cards sole possession of first place in the NL Central with a one-half game lead over the Reds. Matt Holliday drove in the winning run with two outs in the ninth.
Philadelphia (48-42, -689) finished up its series against the Cubs late Sunday night. Before that game went final, Charlie Manuel’s squad was five games back of the first-place Braves in the NL East.
Tony La Russa will turn to Blake Hawksworth (3-5, 4.73) in the series opener. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 home appearances (one start) this season. The reliever who is being used as a spot-starter right now, is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in 4 2/3 career innings against the Phils.
Manuel will give the ball to Kyle Kendrick (5-3, 4.44), who has a 4-0 record and 1.67 ERA in four lifetime starts against St. Louis. Kendrick is 3-1 with a 3.52 ERA in 11 road outings (nine starts) in 2010.
St. Louis has posted a 31-15 home record at Busch Stadium, while the Phillies went into Sunday’s game at Chicago with a 23-25 road ledger.
The ‘under’ is 49-40 overall for Philadelphia, 26-22 in its road games. Meanwhile, St. Louis has watched the ‘under’ go 51-34 overall and 24-15 in its home contests.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Atlanta’s Brian McCann garnered MVP honors at the 81st All-Star Game in Anaheim this past week. Then on Sunday, McCann blasted the sixth career grand slam of his career in the Braves’ 11-6 win over Milwaukee to salvage a split of the four-game series. McCann went 2-for-4 with five RBIs, while Omar Infante was 4-for-5 to lift his batting average to .337. The Braves, who are off on Monday, had a five-game lead on the Phillies and a 5 ½-game advantage on the Mets (pending both team’s results on Sunday).
New York LHP Andy Pettitte is most likely headed to the disabled list after leaving Sunday’s win over the Rays with a grade-one groin strain. Also, A.J. Burnett left Saturday’s game early after apparently cutting his hand during a temper tantrum in which he hit a door.
Dodgers’ slugger Manny Ramirez is ‘doubtful’ for Monday’s series opener vs. San Francisco with a calf injury.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 7/19
By Dan Bebe
National League
Brewers (-115) @ Pirates with a total of 9.5
Karstens has to feel like the Brewers are the only team he's seen all month. He just faced them before the Break, and he faced them back in April, too, for what it's worth. He's 0-2 with a 4.01 ERA lifetime against Milwaukee, 0-1 this year, though his start against them in April was definitely good enough to get a win. Capuano is 2-6 with a 6.34 ERA lifetime against Pittsburgh, and doesn't have the arm strength to be considered a "full" starter, just yet. Pittsburgh hit the ball very well against the Astros, too, so I wonder if this isn't a bit of a bad spot for Capuano, or if Karstens continues his downward trend against the Brewers.
Phillies @ Cardinals (-135) with a total of 9
This might come as a bit of a surprise, but Kyle Kendrick loves facing the Cards. He's a perfect 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA against St. Louis lifetime, including 7 shutout innings of work this season. Blake Hawksworth is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA against the Phils in a brief bit of work. Skip Schumaker is the only Cardinal with any true success against Kendrick, and believe me, I'm as surprised as the next guy. The Phils are playing the late game on ESPN on Sunday night, so momentum is yet to be decided, but there's some value on the dog, here, I imagine.
Rockies (-155) @ Marlins with a total of 7
The Rockies avoided a sweep in Cincinnati with a bit of a tightrope act, but they'll probably need more than 1 run to beat the Marlins. Well, maybe. Ubaldo Jimenez is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA against the Marlins, hasn't faced them this year, and that probably bodes well for him. Sanchez is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA against the Rockies, who continue to struggle to hit on the road. They're markedly worse against lefties, so that's one little point in Colorado's favor, but I'd be pretty careful with this one, since you never know how an All Star starter is going to bounce back in his first start after the Break.
Nationals @ Reds (-175) with a total of 9
It's official - the Reds are in a bit of an offensive slump. I mistakenly thought they were coming out of it, but such was not the case. Cueto is 2-2 with a 5.56 ERA against Washington in his career, but these teams are not too familiar with each other in 2010. Nyjer Morgan has some decent numbers against Cueto, but I'm a little confused as to how his ERA got as high as it is against this team. A healthy Cueto should be able to hold his own against a very poor road team. J.D. Martin, his competition, is probably among the best 1-4 pitchers in the MLB. His 3.35 ERA should be good enough for a couple of wins, but the Nats aren't giving him any run support. I would not be surprised to see this total come down to 8.5, since both teams got shut out, yesterday. If you like the Under, you might want to grab it early.
Astros @ Cubs (-170) with a total of N/A
The Cubs are one of the few teams that Wandy's pitched well against this season, and he's 4-4 with a 3.74 ERA against them, lifetime. Carlos Silva went 7 innings against the Astros way back near the beginning of the year, and he's 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA against them overall. Silva has been a shining beacon of consistency, and though I do believe the Astros will get some love at this price, Houston's pitching has been terrible since the Break, and the Cubs actually showed some signs of life in that series with the Phils, and could have dominated the series if not for some shaky relief work (which seemed to be the theme of the weekend around baseball). I'd be careful with this one.
Mets @ D'backs (-110) with a total of 9.5
This is a square-off of two guys that stumbled into the All Star Break. We thought Pelfrey was going to get the nod in that Giants series, but he got pushed back, and I can't say I'm surprised. His arm appeared to be completely gassed heading into the Break, and extra time to get his whole body healthy should only be a good thing. Pelfrey is, however, 0-4 with a 5.22 ERA lifetime against the D'backs, so this isn't a team that he enjoys facing, particularly, and Adam LaRoche, a new D'back, has always given him problems. Kennedy seemed to be pretty pooped heading into the Break, too, and the D'backs have come out of the layoff looking as sorry as they did beforehand. Kennedy was extremely consistent when his arm was right, so I wonder if he gets things together against a team that has struggled to score on this road trip and even before the Break.
Giants @ Dodgers (-110) with a total of 8.5
This is a fun youngster game, and I almost feel like I'm watching some sort of Futures event. For the Giants, Bumgarner, master of the silly name, is their #2 prospect behind current catcher Buster Posey, so they're not at all surprised that he's gotten off to a strong MLB start. James McDonald is a Dodgers project that has spent some time in the Bigs, but never really got his role settled. He started once or twice, pitched in long relief, pitched in short relief, and I have to think that, finally, McDonald is a starter, and I only hope, as a Dodger fan, that he puts the pieces together with that nasty curve and solid change. The Dodgers come home off an awful series in St. Louis, and the Giants head south off a solid, nearly spectacular series against the Mets. Of course, it's not about what happened yesterday, it's about what's about to happen. Dodgers have owned the NL West, and Giants are far worse on the road. Definitely a good game to watch, and possibly bet.
American League
Rays (-171) @ Orioles with a total of 9.5
There's a reason Wade Davis is this big of a road favorite, and that's because the Orioles, despite a firework here and there, still stink, and Wade Davis is 2-0 with an 0.56 ERA against Baltimore lifetime. He hasn't faced them this year, somehow, but the historical data makes it look like he's going to be awfully tough. So, I know the first thought you had, and let's dispell it - Tillman is 0-1 against the Rays, but his 2.84 ERA means he wasn't at all a bad pitcher. He also had his best start of 2010 right before the Break, so he's got some confidence, and Tampa had some issues getting runners home yesterday. That type of stuff can carry over.
Rangers @ Tigers (-110) with a total of 9.5
Bonderman had himself a fairly ugly start in Texas this season, but Michael Young is really the one Ranger that has had his way with Bonderman over the years. Texas is playing good baseball right now, but I can't help but wonder if that emotional series in Fenway took a little out of them. The Tigers are a mess, losing all 4 games in Cleveland post-Break, and doing absolutely nothing offensively. Scott Feldman, though, is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA against the Tigers in his ML career, including a poor effort against them in Texas in 2010. A lot of hideous numbers makes me think that 9.5 on the total is a fishy number. I have to think we'll see a fair amount of Over money, and Texas is looking pretty sweet off their beating of Boston, but I'm not sure those aren't both a little flawed.
Indians @ Twins (-205) with a total of 9
Do you even have to ask on this one? Not touching the side, as both of these teams are on hot streaks, and both are hitting the ball well. For the Indians, though, a change of venue can really put a wrinkle in things, and of course, playing a team other than the Tigers (who stink on the road) will also make life tougher. The Twins should win this game, but we know how "shoulds" work. Baker is 7-6 with a 3.50 ERA against Cleveland in his career, but was awful against them this year, and Hafner eats Baker for lunch. Laffey is not a good pitcher, flat out, but he is 4-2 against the Twins lifetime, despite Mauer, Span and Cuddyer all hitting him very hard. I can't help but think the Over is the only play I'd even remotely consider, and even that's a longshot.
Blue Jays (-150) @ Royals with a total of 9
Amazingly, Kyle Davies is actually the biggest money winner on the Royals pitching staff. Just some food for thought on a guy with a 5.57 ERA. Hah. In any case, Davies gave up 4 runs in 6 innings against the Jays back in April, and is 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA against them, lifetime. Cecil has never faced the Royals, but Kansas City has come out of the Break struggling, big time, as the Oakland Athletics just ran them right over. Can they put the brakes on Toronto's big power? Kauffman Stadium is quite spacious, which definitely hurts the Jays, and while I don't believe I can back Davies, the venue might actually keep me off Toronto, at least until we see how they handle their trip to KC.
Red Sox (-120) @ Athletics with a total of 8.5
REMATCH ALERT! I know, pretty weird, but it's true. These two went head-to-head back on June 2, and Matsuzaka gave up 3 runs in 6.2 innings in a 6-4 Boston win. Sheets allowed 4 runs in 6 innings, which was relatively decent, but not good enough. Boston is coming off getting shellacked by the Rangers, and the A's are coming off beating the hell out of the Royals, so I wonder if this isn't one of those spots where we're getting the world's best price on a banged up Red Sox team with the better starter, and better lineup even when they're at 60% strength. I don't believe the rematch plays a role in this game, at all. These teams don't really care about each other.
White Sox (-130) @ Mariners with a total of 8.5
The suddenly cold White Sox get a chance to get fat in this series, if the Mariners will play a part in it. This series, to me, is a tough one, as the White Sox come in off a very depressing loss to the Twins, and the entire AL Central is bunched up once again. The Mariners got a tough extra-inning win in LA to finish off that series, though, motivation-wise, you have to think the White Sox want these games just a hair more. This series, to me, is a very tough one to cap, and we have two unknown starters on top of it.
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Red Sox at Athletics - The Red Sox are 0-10 since August 04, 2009 on the road within 20 cents of pickem when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1005 when playing against.
Phillies at Cardinals - The Phillies are 0-8 since May 01, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $820 when playing against. The Phillies are 5-0 since April 14, 2010 when Kyle Kendrick starts when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $580. The Cardinals are 0-9 since April 28, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a one run win for a net profit of $910 when playing against.
Astros at Cubs - The Astros are 0-10 since April 10, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Astros are 0-8 since April 12, 2009 when Wandy Rodriguez starts on the road after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $805 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-6 since August 30, 2009 at home after a win in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Mets at Diamondbacks - The Mets are 0-7 since May 17, 2009 after a win in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $765 when playing against. The Mets are 0-7 since May 13, 2009 after an extra inning win for a net profit of $765 when playing against.
Giants at Dodgers - The Dodgers are 16-0 since August 02, 2008 as a home favorite after a one run loss for a net profit of $1600
White Sox at Mariners - The Mariners are 0-10 since May 18, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.
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Rockies at Marlins - The Rockies are 15-0 since May 06, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts as a 140+ favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $1500. The Rockies are 8-0 since July 07, 2009 as a favorite when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start after a win for a net profit of $800. The Marlins are 0-8 since June 26, 2009 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1045 when playing against.
Rays at Orioles - The Rays are 0-4 since October 04, 2009 when Wade Davis starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $545 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-9 since April 12, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
Brewers at Pirates - The Pirates are 6-0 since May 30, 2009 when Jeff Karstens starts at home for a net profit of $825.
Nationals at Reds - The Nationals are 0-5 since May 29, 2010 when J.D. Martin starts on the road for a net profit of $515 when playing against. The Reds are 4-0 since September 06, 2009 when Johnny Cueto starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $550.
Blue Jays at Royals - The Blue Jays are 0-7 since June 01, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $735 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 7-0 since July 10, 2009 when Brett Cecil starts on the road in the first game of a series for a net profit of $935.
Rangers at Tigers - The Rangers are 10-0 since May 02, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $1085. The Tigers are 10-0 since April 29, 2010 at home after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $1160
Indians at Twins - The Indians are 0-10 since May 15, 2009 as a road 140+ dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Twins are 11-0 since May 08, 2009 when Scott Baker starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $1105.