Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Max Scherzer (7-7, 4.43 ERA), Detroit Tigers
Scouts never doubted this Missouri native’s big league potential, but there were some concerns if he could keep his walk rate down. Scherzer is a strikeout pitcher who battles his instincts, which are to keep the ball off the plate.
The former Diamondback prospect is still walking his share of batters and he isn’t exactly breezing through innings, but he’s getting the job done.
He’s collected quality starts in six of his last eight appearances and the Tigers are 5-2 in his last seven outings. The under is 5-1 the last six times the righty has toed the rubber.
Ricky Nolasco (10-7, 4.50 ERA), Florida Marlins
Josh Johnson’s assertion as the Marlins’ No. 1 starting pitcher might have been the best thing for Nolasco’s progression. The youngster began 2009 as Florida’s Opening Day starter but struggled through an up and down campaign.
And while there have been some shaky moments, 2010 has been much kinder to the 27-year-old hurler. He remains one of the league’s top strikeout artists (50 K’s compared to just eight walks in his last 40 1/3 innings) and Florida is racking up the wins with him on the bump.
The Marlins are 5-1 in his last six appearances and the under is 4-0 the last four times he’s taken the hill.
Slumping
Carlos Silva (9-4, 3.86 ERA), Chicago Cubs
The Cubs most consistent hurler has hit a recent snag. He’s been knocked out before the end of the second inning in each of his last two starts, surrendering 11 earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings.
"I'm still human," Silva, who started the year 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA, told reporters after getting shelled in a second straight outing. "I think that's the way we have to look at it. These games are going to happen. Everything I was throwing it was hit."
The Cubbies are now 1-6 in Silva’s last seven trips to the bump.
Bradley Bergesen (3-8, 6.51 ERA), Baltimore Orioles
The 2010 Orioles are full of underachievers and Bergesen hasn’t done much to disprove the theory. The 24-year-old righty has just one quality start in his last five trips to the bump and the Orioles are 1-8 in his last nine starts.
He’s allowed five home runs in his last four outings but the under is surprisingly a perfect 4-0 in those games.
Monday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The trading deadline is less than a week away as teams not only are scrambling for missing pieces to help complete their squad, but also to make a move in the pennant race. The American League has a loaded Monday card, starting with two clubs trying to make a push inside their division.
Tigers at Rays - 7:05 PM EST
These two teams meet up for the first time this season as Tampa Bay returns home following consecutive wins at Cleveland. Detroit begins a seven-game road trip through the AL East that wraps up in Boston.
Matt Garza (10-5, 4.36 ERA) looks to rebound off one of his worst losses of the season, allowing four homers in 6.1 innings of an 11-10 defeat at Baltimore. Garza has lost only once in his last eight decisions, while the Rays own an 8-2 mark in his 10 home starts this season. The right-hander has struggled against the Tigers in his career, losing five straight dating back to his days with the Twins.
The Tigers send out Max Scherzer (7-7, 4.43 ERA) to the hill, who has been the epitome of the home-road dichotomy this season. Scherzer has won just one start in nine road outings, compared to Detroit's 7-2 mark in his nine starts at Comerica Park. The former Diamondback is coming off one of his best outings, a scoreless seven-inning effort in a 4-1 victory over the Rangers. Scherzer has never faced the Rays in his career, as he looks for better run support on the road with Detroit plating less than three runs/game in his away outings.
Detroit took five of seven meetings from Tampa Bay last season, including a three-game sweep at Comerica Park in September. The Tigers have dropped six games on the road, with four of those games finishing 'under' the total.
Yankees at Indians - 7:05 PM EST
The Bombers head to Cleveland for the first time since last May, as New York tries to maintain its lead in the AL East. The Indians lost the final two games to the Rays, but Cleveland is a very profitable 7-3 since the All-Star Break.
A pair of veteran pitchers take the mound as Javier Vazquez (8-7, 4.68 ERA) has turned into a strong road play for the Yanks recently. New York is 4-2 in Vazquez's previous six away starts, despite a 4-1 loss at Seattle in his last highway outing on July 10. Vazquez was knocked around in his last start against the Angels, allowing five earned runs and nine hits in five innings, but the Yanks outslugged Los Angeles, 10-6.
Jake Westbrook (6-6, 4.74 ERA) has been reliable at Progressive Field, winning each of his last three home starts. Cleveland is 4-1 in his previous five home outings, including underdog wins against Detroit and Toronto. Westbrook hasn't faced the Yankees since 2007, when the righty lost three times to New York, allowing 18 earned runs in 13 innings.
The Yankees took three of four from the Indians in late May, averaging 9.25 runs/game in that series. New York is 5-1 the previous six meetings in Cleveland, with the 'under' cashing five times.
Twins at Royals - 8:10 PM EST
The Royals return home following a long weekend in the Bronx, suffering through numerous rain delays while losing three of four to the Yankees. Minnesota rebounded from a home series loss to Cleveland by grabbing three of four at Baltimore.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke (6-9, 3.59 ERA) has had one hiccup over the last month, going 4-1 his last five starts. Greinke is coming off a strong eight-inning performance over the Blue Jays, beating Toronto, 5-2. The lone bump in the road in this span was a 5-1 setback to Oakland, as the A's scored three unearned runs on Greinke. The Kansas City ace hasn't had much luck against Minnesota, losing nine of the last 10 starts in this series, including a pair of defeats at Target Field this season.
Francisco Liriano (8-7, 3.54 ERA) is returning to his early-season form after a subpar stretch from late June through early July. The Twins' southpaw has allowed two earned runs in his last two outings, both home victories over the White Sox and Indians. Minnesota is 2-4 in Liriano's six career starts against Kansas City, including a 1-2 mark at Kauffman Stadium.
The Twins are 6-3 in the season series, while taking two of three in Kansas City. The 'over' has been the play between these teams, hitting seven times.
Mariners at White Sox - 8:10 PM EST
The Mariners will exchange one pair of sox for another as Seattle heads to the South Side to take on the struggling White Sox. The M's captured the final two games of their four-game home series against Boston, while limiting the Red Sox to five runs the last three contests. The White Sox finished up a tough 10-game road trip at 4-6, as Chicago lost two of three at Oakland to wrap up the swing.
Each team sends out its ace as John Danks and Felix Hernandez square off. Danks (10-7, 3.37 ERA) limited the anemic Mariners' offense to two hits in 7.2 innings of a 4-0 shutout at Safeco Field last Tuesday. The Chicago southpaw is just 5-4 at home this season, but tossed a complete-game gem in a 1-0 blanking of the Angels on July 8 in his last start at U.S. Cellular Field.
Hernandez (7-6, 2.75 ERA) had his way with the White Sox bats last Thursday, scattering two hits and striking out eight in eight scoreless frames of a 2-1 extra-innings triumph. King Felix is definitely a relief for the Seattle bullpen, going at least eight innings in eight of his previous 10 outings. The 'under' has hit in six of Hernandez's last seven starts, as the M's are averaging just 3.5 runs/game for the ace this season.
The White Sox are 5-1 against the Mariners this season, including a 2-1 mark at Safeco Field on this recent West Coast swing. Following a pair of 'overs' the first two meetings, the 'under' has now cashed in four straight matchups, while four games have been decided by one run.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 7/26
By Dan Bebe
National League
Rockies @ Phillies (-126) with a total of 9.5
I'm not a huge fan of betting these Monday "end of series" games, since we're likely to see some really absurd lineups. Of course, with due diligence, you can get those lineups and recalibrate your phasers, or whatever nerdy weapon you chose. For what it's worth, Blanton has never started against the Rockies, so this is uncharted water for a guy that has had a hard time keeping his opponents to a run total under 3. Hammel, meanwhile, continues to pitch pretty well, though the Marlins, his nemesis, tagged him for 5 runs in his last start. This is a pretty cheap price on the Phils, who are playing much better than the road-weary Rockies, if I had to offer an initial thought.
Cubs (-150) @ Astros with a total of 9
Carlos Silva is coming off his worst start of the season, which would probably make you think that he's set for a downward spiral, if not for one key note: it came against these same Astros. So now, you have to balance his regression with the revenge angle. He had actually been quite good against Houston prior to that ugly start, and you certainly can't claim he isn't rested, since he only went an inning, but I think that's playing a large role in this line being so high. Another reason is that a converted reliever is his opposition. Wright is making just his 2nd start, his first being one of those insane games where no one can get anybody out, so he'll probably be better than that, though I hardly think he's going to be good.
Reds @ Brewers (-111) with a total of 9
Don't look now, but the Brewers have actually won 4 games in a row. Of course, picking on the Nats didn't hurt their cause. In any case, they're hitting, and right now, the Reds aren't, really. This opening number is pretty strong for the lowly Brewers, too, considering Randy Wolf is sporting a 5.20 ERA on the season. Somehow, he hasn't faced this division rival yet this year. Arroyo, meanwhile, has an ERA a full run lower, 3 more wins, 4 fewer losses, and an ERA against the Brewers under 4 (Wolf has a solid one against Cincy, too). This is a tough one to cap, since neither pitcher has seen this team this year, though historically, Arroyo has struggled with Craig Counsell, Jim Edmonds, and Prince Fielder has 3 homers off him, while Jonny Gomes is probably Wolf's biggest concern on the offensively inconsistent Reds.
Marlins @ Giants (-145) with a total of 7.5
The Giants are just rolling right along, though that first game home, just like in basketball, can be a little bit confusing. That's my minor hesitation, since the Marlins are playing excellent baseball, and it's not as though they're just going to get steamrolled. Ricky Nolasco is 1-2 with a 2.05 ERA against the Giants in his career, and only Pat Burrell, of the current Giants, has any real success against him. Zito is also in a good spot, based on historical numbers - he's 5-0 against the Marlins with a 2.15 ERA, and his last 2 starts have each been solid. I find it hard to believe that either team is going to lay waste to the other. Zito allowed a run in 7 innings to the Marlins this year, already, while Nolasco gave up 3 runs in 6 innings of a loss to Matt Cain. Tough call, here.
American League
Yankees (-200) @ Indians with a total of 9.5
This has to be Indians or nothing, at this price. Vazquez is coming off a less-than-stellar outing against the Angels, and hasn't faced the Indians yet, this year. Westbrook will usually give you 6 frames, and will probably surrender a few runs. Honestly, unless you're huge into totals, I'd leave this one alone. And as far as totals go, this number looks a little inflated to me, but at the same time, I could easily see it getting there. Total coin-flip, in my opinion.
Orioles @ Blue Jays (-215) with a total of 9
This is another inflated line, but at the same time, the Jays are a perfect 9-0 against the Orioles this season, so there's a pretty good reason for oddsmakers to bump that line up a few ticks. Does that mean we're playing the Orioles? Hell no. But at the same time, just realize that if you're backing Toronto, either on the RL or ML, you're paying a premium, and that will not work out in your favor in the long term.
Tigers @ Rays (-165) with a total of 8
Detroit is absolutely a live dog in this one, though folks don't seem to like seeing a Top Play on a huge dog, so I'll make the promise right here that if I decide to back the Tigers, it would be a free play. I love the way Scherzer is pitching - he's added a little hitch in his delivery that seems to be helping with his timing and helping hide the ball. He hasn't been as strong on the road, and Detroit has been, for the most part, a complete mess away from home, but Garza has been an even bigger mess over the last 2 months, and he's 0-4 in his career against Detroit. Damn, though, the Tigers are without Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge for a while, Brennan Boesch is hitting the wall, and that leaves about 2 competent offensive players. Tough to beat one of the best teams in the baseball with only 2 bats.
Twins @ Royals (-110) with a total of 7.5
Somehow, Liriano has avoided pitching against the Royals this year, but I happen to think that works slightly in his favor. I will admit, I was kind of hoping that the Twins would lose their finale in Baltimore to keep this line from moving, but more than likely, the public bettors that won with Minnesota are going to look to double up, and this line will probably move 5-10 cents towards the Twinkies, as a result. Liriano, in his career, is 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA against the Royals, but we have to remember that he went through some rough spells while getting his arm strength back. A better barometer is to check current Royals' success against him, and only Mike Aviles has any numbers to speak of. Greinke hasn't been all that impressive against the Twins, going 3-6 (no surprise there), but an ERA in the mid-4's. No Morneau is going to hurt, but Delmon Young has been, maybe, the hottest hitter in the AL.
Mariners @ White Sox (-140) with a total of 6.5
What can I write about King Felix that I haven't over the last 2 months? The guys has been as close to unhittable as you can get. He and Josh Johnson are battling for best in the business, in my eyes, and if Felix pitched for a team that could hit, he'd have 13-14 wins right now. I mean, the fact that Felix only has 1 win this month is an embarrassment of epic proportions. He's allowed 6 runs in 32 innings over 4 starts. In any case, he hasn't allowed a run to Chicago in any of his last 3 starts against them, and that will likely change tonight, as he's going against them for the 2nd straight start, and it's not easy to keep the gameplan in place. I will give Seattle credit, though. Chone Figgins and Jose Lopez nearly decked each other in the dugout, and the team has been playing with a better fire ever since. On the Chicago side, this team is very much looking forward to getting home, as the road trip ended quite poorly in Oakland. Danks is a nice stopper, and he 2-hit the Mariners in his last start. Thus, we have the total of 6.5, and this one could actually go Under. Should be a nice 2 hour game.
Red Sox (-125) @ Angels with a total of 9
I almost can't fathom how the two pitchers have the numbers they do against this opponent. Buchholz is 2-2 with a 6.35 ERA against the Halos, and Pineiro is 3-6 with a 5.94 ERA against the Red Sox. For Pineiro, you can make the argument that a lot of his mess came before he found his way to Dave Duncan, and actually turned in a quality start in a 3-1 loss to Boston back in the early parts of this season. Buchholz is making just his 2nd start since coming off the DL, and looked rusty in his first go. He was not at all sharp against the A's, and didn't pitch well against Anaheim this year even when healthy. The concern, here, is that the Angels are emotionally drained off a tough 1-3 series in Texas. Pineiro is coming off a bad start, and we know how he can implode for 1-2 starts before getting things back on track. I happen to think this is a pretty strong opening number for Buchholz, considering he was a -115 favorite to Gio Gonzalez, in Oakland, and now 10 cents higher against a team with a better record and a more notable starter?
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Red Sox at Angels – The Red Sox are 10-0 since May 04, 2009 after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000. The Angels are 8-0 since May 10, 2010 when Joel Pineiro starts at home for a net profit of $835. The Angels are 7-0 since June 23, 2009 at home after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $740.
Orioles at Blue Jays – The Orioles are 0-9 since April 17, 2010 as a road dog after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-8 since July 01, 2009 when Bradley Bergesen starts as a dog in July for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Orioles are 4-0 since June 19, 2010 as a road dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $890,
Reds at Brewers – The Reds are 7-0 since June 01, 2009 on the road within 20 cents of pickem when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $760. The Reds are 5-0 since August 25, 2009 when Bronson Arroyo starts as a dog after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $690. The Brewers are 0-5 since April 27, 2010 when Randy Wolf starts as a favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $675 when playing against.
Marlins at Giants – The Marlins are 6-0 since April 14, 2009 as a road dog when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $835. The Giants are 8-0 since April 22, 2009 when Barry Zito starts at home after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $920.
Yankees at Indians – The Yankees are 11-0 since April 11, 2009 as a road 140+ favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $1100. The Yankees are 0-5 since April 25, 2010 when Javier Vazquez starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $630 when playing against..
Rockies at Phillies – The Rockies are 6-0 since April 15, 2009 on the road after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $750. The Phillies are 11-0 since April 13, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1150. The Phillies are 7-0 since April 13, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $725.
Tigers at Rays – The Tigers are 0-6 since April 23, 2010 when Max Scherzer starts as a dog for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Rays are 6-0 since May 16, 2009 when Matt Garza starts as a home 140+ favorite after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $600.
Twins at Royals – The Twins are 0-8 since April 28, 2010 on the road after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $840 when playing against. The Royals are 0-10 since May 14, 2009 at home after a 5+ run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1065 when playing against.
Mariners at White Sox – The Mariners are 0-9 since April 28, 2009 as a road dog after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Mariners are 7-0 since May 30, 2009 when Felix Hernandez starts vs a team that won their starters last two starts for a net profit of $705. The White Sox are 7-0 since April 20, 2010 when John Danks starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $745.