MLB News and Notes Monday 7/5

MLB RoundUp For 7/5
By Dan Bebe

National League

Cubs @ D'backs (-130) with a total of 9.5
Stephen Drew is 5-for-12 off Gorzelanny;
Justin Upton is 4-for-8 with a HR off Gorzelanny.
I'm not sure how you even consider the Cubs in this one. I mean, the D'backs stink something fierce, and sport one of the worst bullpens I can remember since I started betting baseball (picking up another "L" yesterday), but the Cubs are, perhaps, the biggest disappointment in the League, getting absolutely creamed in 2 of 3, at home, against the Reds. I suppose the bounceback game is the one thing working in their favor, but Gorzelanny in a hitter's park in Phoenix is a little bit of a scary thought. He pitched alright against the D'backs in Wrigley earlier this year, and Kennedy had that crazy wind-game with Ted Lilly, so it's tough to go on that data. Leans: D'backs

Giants @ Brewers (-135) with a total of 8.5
Pat Burrell is 5-for-13 with 3 HR and 5 RBI off Bush since '05;
Edgar Renteria is 6-for-12 off Bush since' 05;
Freddy Sanchez is 11-for-30 with 6 RBI off Bush since '05;
Ryan Braun is 3-for-8 off Sanchez;
Prince Fielder is 4-for-11 with 2 RBI off Sanchez;
Corey Hart is 3-for-8 off Sanchez.
The Giants are really fighting it, these days. We could get into all the minutia, about Sanchez on the road, and the Brewers bats heating up, and so on and so forth, but really, the Giants struggles mean they're not a smart play. Leans: Brewers

Braves @ Phillies (-167) with a total of 8
There's really only one guy on the Phillies that hits Lowe hard, consistently, and he's on the DL. Without Chase Utley, who is going to get the Phils on the board against the sinkerballer? Lowe had 2 poor starts against the Phils early this season, but bounced back with a strong one in early June, and I wonder if he doesn't continue to build on that. Halladay has been nothing short of spectacular against the Braves, 2-0 with an 0.46 ERA against them in his career. I'd love to take the Under, but I don't believe there's a ton of value left in that one. Still, it's really the only play that makes much sense to me, here. Leans: Under

Reds @ Mets (-140) with a total of 8.5
Brandon Phillips is 5-for-12 with a HR and 4 RBI off Pelfrey;
Jason Bay is batting .410 in 39 AB off Harang since '05 with 5 HR and 9 RBI;
David Wright is 8-for-12 with a HR and 5 RBI off Harang.
That is some serious ownage from Bay and Wright against Harang. Pelfrey, though, has been experiencing what appears to be some slight arm fatigue. He pitched very poorly in Puerto Rico in his last start, though the Mets got lucky in that one and escaped with a gift win. I do like how strong he's been at home, though, where the adrenaline seems to kick in a little harder. Pelfrey is 3-1 against the Reds with a 4.73 ERA - not great, but decent compared to Harang's 2-3, 6.11 mark against the Mets. Leans: Mets

Marlins @ Dodgers (-171) with a total of 8.5
Casey Blake is 6-for-19 with 5 HR and 5 RBI off Robertson since '05.
That's a ton of homers for Blake off Robertson, who has actually done a decent job, this year, of forcing teams to string together hits to score runs off him. Of course, teams have been able to do that, too, which leads to an ERA near 5. Robertson is 1-0 against the Dodgers lifetime, but it's tough to put a real ribbon on any relevance, there. This side is too expensive to back Ely, especially against a team that has some definite offensive talent, but I wouldn't expect Robertson to succeed against a good home team in LA. Leans: None

American League

Orioles @ Tigers (-180) with a total of 9.5
Miguel Cabrera is 5-for-14 with 3 RBI off Millwood since '05;
Magglio Ordonez is 9-for-24 off Millwood since '05.
This price is all kinds of too-high for Andrew Oliver. I know the Tigers are a solid home team, but the Orioles are starting to score just a little bit, and there's no doubt in my mind that at this price, the Orioles are the value play. I'm not a tremendous volume guy, but I wouldn't bet the Tigers, is all I'm trying to convey. Leans: None

Angels @ White Sox (-150) with a total of 9.5
Bobby Abreu is 5-for-16 with 6 RBI off Floyd since '05;
Juan Rivera (if healthy) is 5-for-12 with a HR and 3 RBI off Floyd since '05;
Paul Konerko is 9-for-20 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Kazmir since '05;
Alexei Ramirez is 4-for-11 with an RBI off Kazmir.
Well, this is a little expensive for the Sox, though I'd say there's a decent chance they win the game. Kazmir, after a brief stretch of marginal starts, has regressed back to stinking, and I fail to see how on earth he has 7 wins this year, and Gavin Floyd has just 3. In any case, Kazmir's career numbers have meant very little this season as he fights his way through 2010, so no reason to put a ton of stock in his 3-3, 4.66 mark against the White Sox, for good or bad. Floyd continues his fine run since early June, though is just 1-3 with a 4.14 ERA against the Angels. His strikeouts were down in KC, but he got grounder after grounder, and despite one rough inning, tossed another quality outing into the mix. Leans: White Sox

Red Sox @ Rays (-145) with a total of 9
REMATCH ALERT! We'll forgo player numbers, since Garza is making his 4th start of the season against the Sox, and anything we need to know about his work against Boston, we can get from this year's data. He pitched well against the Red Sox twice, both times at Fenway, and stunk against them at home. Which Garza will we get? His last 2 starts have been a bit better, and the Red Sox are without some key offensive weapons, so I wonder if he doesn't have himself a nice outing at home. Matsuzaka is also pitching well lately, though he did lose to Garza when these teams met last, the Boston pen giving up 6 runs late to let the Rays blow that one open. If you think Boston gets some revenge, you've got a nice value. If you think Garza continues a resurgence, of sorts, then 145 might not look that expensive. Here's what I think. Leans: None

Indians @ Rangers (-175) with a total of 10.5
Ian Kinsler is 4-for-6 off Laffey.
I could list a few other Rangers that hit Laffey hard in very limited action, but maybe it's more notable to post Laffey's numbers against Texas - 1-1 with an 8.64 ERA. Yikes. Omar Beltre makes his 2nd start of his young career, coming off a rather poor debut against the Halos. The strikeouts were there, which means that good things might be coming, if he can cut down on the walks. At this price, there are better plays out there, and that total is pretty inflated. Leans: Under

Yankees (-157) @ Athletics with a total of 8.5
Ben Sheets has been one of the easiest pitchers to handicap over the last 2 months. He's going to go 6 innings and give up 3 or 4 runs. Done. I mean, look at his game log. He's gone between 6 and 7 innings in 11 straight starts, and he's allowed 3-4 earned runs in 8 of those 11 starts. So, will Vazquez and the Yankees pen do better than that? I'm inclined to think they will, but so does the World, and that's why this line is where it is. Vazquez has been serviceable lately, better than Sheets by just a hair. He didn't pitch that well against Oakland earlier this season, but seems to have a better grip on his stuff now than he did then. Oakland's been winning, we should give them credit, but the Yankees can definitely make a stink in Oakland. Leans: Yankees

Royals @ Mariners (-200) with a total of 7
King Felix has officially arrived. He and Cliff Lee are making up one of the most menacing 1-2 tandems in baseball, but on this team with no offense, is it too late? Seems like it, as Cliff Lee is absolutely the talk of the Hot Stove. With Eric Bedard coming back, that could have been a pretty damn good starting rotation, with Vargas and a healthy Fister. Oh well, best laid plans. Hernandez has thrown 4 straight games of 9 innings, and went 8.2 in the start before that. He is just dominating. Brian Bannister isn't. And while the Royals are playing decent ball, aside from yesterday's blowout loss in Anaheim, the Mariners should win this one handily. You guys know how I feel about home run lines, and with the Mariners offense, that's a very dicey proposition, but I happen to think this line should actually be closer to -220. Is that enough? Leans: Mariners

Tips and Trends

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Braves: Atlanta has won their past 3 games, pushing them to the top of the National League standings. The Braves are tied with the Padres for the best record in the National League at 48-33 SU. Atlanta hasn't necessarily been swinging hot bats of late, but their pitching has been earning their keep. The Braves have limited their opponents to 3 runs or fewer in 6 of their past 8 games overall. P Derek Lowe will take the ball today, looking to keep the current streak alive. Lowe is 9-6 this season, with an ERA 4.53 and a WHIP of 1.41. The Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games during game 1 of a series. The Braves are 22-7 in their last 29 games against a right-handed starter. Atlanta is 12-5 in their last 17 road games against a right-handed starter. Atlanta is 3-9 in their last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Braves are 6-2 in Lowe's last 8 starts with 5 days of rest. The Braves are 11-5 in Lowe's last 16 starts against a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 1-5 in Lowe's last 6 starts against the National League East.

Braves are 9-1 last 10 games against the National League East.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - 1B Troy Glaus (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 2

Phillies (-166, O/U 8): Philadelphia has lost 3 of their last 4 games, all as the listed favorite. Philadelphia struggling of late has them slipping ground in the competitive National League East division. The Phillies are 42-37 SU this year. The Phillies are -7.27 and -1.97 units both SU and on the RL this year. Ace pitcher Roy Halladay will take the mound tonight, as he's 9-7 with an ERA of 2.42 and a WHIP of 1.11 this season. The Phillies are 36-16 in their last 52 home games against a right-handed starter. The Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 games against a right-handed starter. Philadelphia is 5-1 in Halladay's last 6 starts against the National League East. The Phillies are 1-4 in Halladay's last 5 home starts. Philadelphia is 1-4 in Halladay's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.

Phillies are 21-8 last 29 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Under is 11-3 last 14 games against the National League East.

Key Injuries - 2B Chase Utley (thumb) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics

Yankees (-155, O/U 8.5): New York is dominating opponents yet again this year, as they have the best record in baseball at 50-31 SU. New York is the only team in the game with 50 wins so far this season. The Yankees even have a winning record on the road this season, 22-18 SU. New York is +1.81 and +8.35 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. P Javier Vazquez is 6-7 overall this year, with an ERA of 5.11 and a WHIP of 1.31. The Yankees are 58-24 in their last 82 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Yankees are 80-35 in their last 115 games against a right-handed starter. New York is 4-1 in Vazquez's last 5 starts against a team with a losing record. The Yankees are 17-7 in Vazquez's last 24 starts with 4 days of rest. New York is 2-6 in Vazquez's last 8 starts against the American League West.

Yankees are 4-1 last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Over is 5-1 last 6 road games.

Key Injuries - 1B Nick Johnson (wrist) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side of the Day)

Athletics: Oakland is staying competitive, as they've won 7 of their last 10 games overall to stand at 41-42 SU on the season. Oakland has played their best baseball at home this year, where they are 24-16 SU. The Athletics are -0.89 and -6.14 units respectively both SU and on the RL this year. Oakland lost 2 of their 3 games against the Yankees earlier this season, so they will look for revenge at home. P Ben Sheets will take the mound tonight, looking to get on track. Sheets is only 3-7 this year, with an ERA of 4.98 and a WHIP of 1.47. The Athletics are 6-2 in their last 8 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Athletics are 5-2 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter. Oakland is 4-1 in Sheets' last 5 home starts overall. The Athletics are 2-6 in Sheets' last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Oakland is 1-5 in Sheets' last 6 starts against the American League East. The Athletics are 0-4 in Sheets' last 4 starts against a team with a winning record. Oakland is 0-4 in Sheets' last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.

Athletics are 5-0 last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 10-4 last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Key Injuries - LF Conor Jackson (leg) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Monday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David

Tonight’s diamond action has an eight-pack of evening battles on tap and even though we haven’t reached the All-Star break just yet, three of the matchups could be potential playoff clashes. Let’s take a closer look at the trio on tap.

Atlanta (48-34, +924) at Philadelphia (42-38, -966)

Most pundits expected Philadelphia to be the class of the National League East, considering its claimed the division three years in a row and the club acquired All-Star pitcher Roy Halladay (9-7, 2.42 ERA) in the offseason. However, the Phillies have been plagued by injuries and the team trails Atlanta by five games in the NL East. The club will have a chance to cut into the gap this week, when the Braves come to town for a three-game set. Halladay already faced the Braves this season (4/21) and he earned a complete game victory (2-0) on the road. However, that’s when the pitcher was dominating and he was garnering a little more support too.

The Phillies started the season by winning six of Halladay’s first seven appearances but the team has only managed to go 3-8 over his last 11 starts and it’s hard to blame the right-hander. In all of the eight losses, the offense has been held to three runs or less. The inconsistent attack has been plagued by injuries and the latest casualty is second baseman Chase Utley (thumb). Even without Utley in the lineup, the Phillies put up 17 runs against the Pirates over the weekend but they still dropped two of three.

Atlanta has definitely overachieved this season, largely due to a league-best 30-10 record at home. Including this series, the Braves will finish the All-Star break with six straight games outside of Georgia and they’ve only produced an 18-24 road mark. Plus, 15 of their last 18 were at home and the three road tilts during this stretch were all losses – to the White Sox. Derek Lowe (9-6, 4.53 ERA) enters this game off a 7-2 loss last week to Washington, lasting 5 2/3 innings while giving up eight hits and four earned runs. Lowe has faced the Phillies three times this season and was roughed up for losses in his first two starts, but rebounded in his most recent appearance (6/2) for a 2-1 victory.

The Braves have won five of the nine encounters against the Phillies this season, but have gone 1-2 in Philadelphia. The ‘under’ is 6-3 during this span and that includes a perfect 3-0 mark at Citizens Bank Park. Tonight’s total is listed at 8 runs, and Halladay has been made a healthy favorite (-180) at home.

Cincinnati (47-36, +933) at N.Y. Mets (46-36, +959)

The Reds and Mets are arguably two of the biggest surprises this season and the pair will find out whose better when they go head-to-head for a three-game set at Citi Field. Cincinnati has been successful at home (27-19) this season, plus it owns a solid road record (20-17) as well.

Dusty Baker’s team has also been able to stroke the long ball this season. They’ve hit 102 home runs, which is tied with Milwaukee for the most in the majors. Over this weekend, the Reds took three of four from the Cubs at Wrigley Field and they drilled nine homers during the series. Cincy will look to close the All-Star break strong with Aaron Harang (6-7, 5.02 ERA) taking the mound tonight. The Reds have gone 7-10 in his 17 appearances and that includes a 1-5 road mark.

Harang will have to bring his best stuff to the hill tonight because the Mets are countering with Mike Pelfrey (10-2, 2.93 ERA) and he’s been nasty. New York has won 14 of his 17 appearances, and that includes eight of nine from Flushing. Despite the high marks at home, Pelfrey has only been installed as a $1.30 favorite (Bet $130 to win $100) at most outfits.

Cincinnati took two of three from the Mets in early May but all three of the decisions were decided by exactly one run. The total went 1-1-1 and tonight’s number is listed at 8 ½ runs.

Boston (49-33,+268) at Tampa Bay (48-38, -38)

The Red Sox and Rays continue their rivalry from Tropicana Field for a quick three-game set and the latest trends in this series have leaned toward the visitor. In the first nine meetings this season, the road team has gone 8-1, which includes a three-game sweep by Boston over Tampa in late May. Despite being swept at home, the Rays have won five of six at Boston this season. Total players have watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 in the first nine encounters.

Tonight’s matchup will be a pitching rematch between Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka (5-3, 4.50 ERA) and Tampa’s Matt Garza (9-5, 4.80 ERA), who squared off last Wednesday from Fenway Park. The Rays led 3-1 after seven strong innings from Garza before both teams erupted in the eighth inning for nine runs, six of them coming from Tampa. The 9-4 victory for the Rays snapped the Red Sox’s seven-game home winning streak. Dice-K went six innings in the loss and only surrendered four hits and three earned runs.

Boston went 2-1 over the weekend at home against Baltimore, while Tampa Bay took three of four from Minnesota on the road. Garza has been installed as a decent favorite (-140) over the Red Sox and most books have the total listed at 9, shaded to the under (-120).

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