Inside the Park - Monday
By Chris David
Gamblers have 11 games to wager on today, so let’s take a closer look at some developing trends on the diamond.
Monday Matinee – Yankees vs. Blue Jays
New York is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, winning 10 of its last 11 games. The Yankees hope to complete a four-game sweep of the Blue Jays, who have dropped three straight and seven of their last eight. The Yankees have scored 20 runs in this series against Toronto, helping the ‘over’ go 2-1.
The Blue Jays send Ricky Romero (6-3, 2.85 ERA) to the mound and the left-handed rookie might be undervalued (+135) in this spot. The Jays have won four straight with him on the mound and he’s given up only five earned runs during this stretch. The Yankees will hand the broom to Andy Pettitte (8-3, 4.25 ERA), who is 2-0 in his last three starts. Pettitte is 3-4 in his last seven starts against Toronto. The ‘under’ has gone 6-1 over this span.
Toronto has gone 13-13 against lefties this year, while the Yanks have produced a 15-8 record versus southpaws. The total opened at 9 ½ runs and will most likely be adjusted after the updated Weather Reports are posted from the Bronx.
ESPN Primer – Atlanta at Chicago Cubs
The Braves and Cubs meet in a nationally-televised showdown tonight at Wrigley Field. Atlanta had some momentum entering last weekend, winning four straight games. Then, the Braves captured the first game from the last-place Nationals on Friday but wound up blowing a lead in Saturday’s loss and then were shut down on Sunday.
Jair Jurrjens (6-6, 2.73 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Braves and the team is hoping he can have a repeat performance from his last outing. The third-year pro held the Phillies to one hit and one run over seven innings in the team’s 11-1 rout on July 1. Prior to that victory, Atlanta lost five straight with Jurrjens on the mound.
Runs won’t come easy for the Braves tonight because the Cubs’ Randy Wells has been in the zone lately. The right-hander has won three in a row and held batters to 16 hits and five runs over his last 20 2/3 innings of work. Wells hasn’t had a lot of run support this year, which has made him a great ‘under’ (6-3) look.
Chicago captured all six meetings against Atlanta last year, but the Braves beat the Cubs two out of three in their first series this season. This will be the last meeting of the regular season between the two teams.
As always, there's no overnight total due to the uncertain wind conditions at Wrigley, but VI's Brian Edwards already has some thoughts on the total. Edwards said, "Unless we're looking at some serious wind blowing out Monday, this game looks like an 'under' to me. Forget Jurrjens' so-so record, this kid has been steadily nasty all year long, as evidenced by his 2.73 ERA. And Wells has been brilliant recently."
Trick or Treat
We know it’s not October folks, but it appears the oddsmakers are begging you to take Cincinnati (+140) tonight when it faces Philadelphia. The pitching matchup features the Reds’ Johnny Cueto (8-4, 2.69 ERA) against the Phillies’ Cole Hamels (4-5, 4.98 ERA). Cueto has four losses on the season, two against the American League and the other two by one run apiece. Hamels is a gamer but the Phillies are 0-4 in his last four starts and the last two (17 hits, 11 runs) have been outright embarrassing.
Philadelphia poses more of a threat offensively, even though the attack has been handcuffed lately. Despite sweeping the Mets over the weekend, the team managed just 13 runs in the three games and has scored seven in their three games prior, all losses too. Despite a lack of talent, the Reds are 40-40 on the season and 20-20 on the road. The Phillies sit in first place of the NL East, but are just 16-22 at home.
Before you run to the counter and unload on the Reds, keep in mind that Hamels has allowed five earned runs in 36 career innings against the Reds. His record is 4-0 in five starts against Cincy.
Perhaps that’s why Hamels and Philadelphia are listed as $1.55 home favorites.
Lookin’ for a “W”
John Smoltz’s (0-1, 6.00 ERA) return to the big leagues hasn’t gone the way the veteran pitcher had hoped. After giving up seven hits and five runs in a 9-3 loss to the Nationals on June 25, Smoltz bounced back by holding the Orioles to three hits and a run over four innings, yet the team still lost 11-10. Even though the Red Sox are 0-2 in Smoltz’s first two appearances, the right-hander has been installed as a healthy favorite (-220) against Oakland. The A’s nearly got swept by the Indians on Sunday, but they rallied for a 5-2 win and helped ‘dog players cash a generous plus-180 ticket against Cliff Lee. The Red Sox were almost swept a swell as well before beating Seattle. Including yesterday’s win, Boston is only 6-12 against the AL West this year. Meanwhile, the A’s have been solid against the AL East this year, going 11-10.
AL West Action
Not a lot of pundits expected Texas to contend for the American League West this year but that’s exactly what the club is doing. The Rangers and Angels meet for the third time this year and Los Angeles is hoping that its confines in Anaheim will be an advantage. Texas has won five of the first six battles this season, although all of the games were in Arlington.
Kevin Millwood (8-5, 2.80 ERA) and Jered Weaver (8-3, 3.02 ERA) will square off for the second time in six days. The Rangers touched up Weaver for eight hits and seven runs in 5 1-3 innings, while Millwood scattered eight hits for four runs over 6 1-3 innings. L.A. rallied to tie the game at 7-7 in the ninth inning with three runs before Hank Blalock drilled a two-run shot in the bottom half of the last inning, which gave Texas a 9-7 win.
Sportsbook.com opened Weaver as a $1.45 favorite, while the total is hovering at 8 ½ runs.
Headin’ West
Sean West (3-2, 4.06 ERA) and the Marlins embark on a seven-game trip to the West Coast on Monday and the team will get tested right off the bat. The Fish open up against the Giants’ Matt Cain (9-2, 2.48 ERA), who will be looking to notch his 10th win of the season. Cain has posted a 5-1 record with a 2.44 ERA at home this year.
West dominated the Giants on June 8 in a 4-0 victory. The lefty flirted with a no-hitter in just his fourth start and looked better than Randy Johnson in the win. The pair split the first four games at Land Shark Stadium. The ‘under’ went 3-0 and could’ve been 4-0 but the Giants tacked on two late runs to get a push in the one encounter.
Tonight’s total opened at 7 ½-runs, deservingly too. Stay abreast with the Injuries on this matchup, since Marlins' shortstop Hanley Ramirez is ‘questionable.’
Day of the Week
Even though some pundits believe this stat to be trivial, some teams do perform better than others on certain days. Here is a look at the top and bottom clubs on Monday this season that are playing today.
Good:
Boston (5-1)
Kansas City (4-1)
L.A. Angels (5-2)
Philadelphia (4-1)
Florida (6-2)
Bad:
Seattle (1-4)
San Diego (3-5)
Atlanta (3-5)
vegasinsider.com
Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves)
Braves leftfielder Matt Diaz knows exactly how good a pitcher his teammate is.
"He’s unbelievable," Diaz told the Associated Press of Jurrjens. "He should be an All-Star as is and if we could score him any runs he'd be a leading Cy Young candidate at the halfway point."
Jurrjens (6-6, 2.73) has been hampered by poor defense behind him and a lack of run support, but none of that stopped him from putting together three straight quality starts. In his most recent outing, an 11-1 win over the Phillies, Jurrjens gave up only one hit and no earned runs over seven innings.
If Jurrjens, 23, can lower his 1.24 WHIP (walks + hits over innings pitched), he could emerge as one of the top young right-handers in the game.
Jarrod Washburn (Seattle Mariners)
Washburn won’t throw a complete game and he likely won’t fan 10 batters in seven innings. But the 34 year old knows how to throw strikes and keep hitters off balance.
Washburn (4-6, 3.36 ERA) has allowed no more than four runs in each of his past seven starts, lasting at least six innings each time out. In his most recent outing, a 4-2 loss to the Yankees, he allowed all the runs, but went seven strong, striking out six along the way.
The key to Washburn’s success is his ability to locate the ball low in the strike zone. The fly-ball pitcher struggles when he lets the ball get away from him. In the loss to the Yankees, he gave up three long balls at the team's new stadium. But that hasn't kept opposing managers from being enamoured with his play this year.
"Washburn reinvented himself. I saw a different pitcher," Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon, who was the bench coach with the Angels when Washburn was there, told the Associated Press. "He is throwing entirely different than in the past... He is a different cat right now.
Slumping
Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies)
The ace of the defending World Series champions appeared to be regaining the form that made him nearly unhittable last October. That was, however, until his past two starts.
Hamels (4-5, 4.98 ERA) admitted to reporters earlier this season that he failed to properly prepare in the months leading up to spring training. On July 1 in Atlanta, he again looked anything but prepared as he was hammered for seven earned runs on nine hits in just four innings.
His start before that, the left-hander lasted a meager 4 2-3 innings as he was tagged for four earned runs on eight hits against the Blue Jays.
"I feel healthy,” Hamels told the Associated Press. “My body feels good. I'm just not hitting my location. I can't seem to stop the bleeding."
Walter Silva (San Diego Padres)
The 32-year-old right-hander was thrilled when the Padres promoted him from Triple-A last month. But no one has been pleased with Silva’s performance since he arrived.
Silva (0-2, 8.86 ERA) received no help from his defense in his most recent start as he yielded six runs (three unearned) in only four innings of work against the Astros. His previous outing, also a disaster, lasted just 2 1-3 innings as he gave up nine runs on seven hits to go with for walks in a 12-2 loss at Texas
And after Silva was shelled against the Rangers, manager Bud Black even gave him a vote of little confidence.
"We'll keep going out there with the five best [starters] in the organization at any given time," Black told the Associated Press. "Since April, there's been a little changeover."
The Padres have six right-handed pitchers on the DL.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (43-40) at San Francisco (44-37)
The Marlins open a seven-game West Coast road trip with left-hander Sean West (3-2, 4.06 ERA) on the mound at AT&T Park against the Giants’ Matt Cain (9-2, 2.48).
Florida wrapped up a 5-1 homestand with Sunday’s 5-0 victory over the Pirates, getting an eight-inning, 12-strikeout performance from Ricky Nolasco. The Marlins have won five straight Monday contests, but they are on slides of 1-5 on the highway and 6-14 on the road against right-handed starters.
San Francisco took two of three from the Astros over the weekend, dropping Sunday’s finale 7-1 after winning the first two games by the combined score of 22-0. The Giants are on streaks of 39-20 at home, 8-3 against teams from the N.L. East, 5-0 against southpaws and 9-4 at home against winning teams. They also own a 24-10 advantage over the Marlins in the last 34 played at AT&T Park.
West is making just his third road start of the season, giving up five runs on eight hits in 12 2/3 innings on the highway to this point. On Tuesday he allowed five runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings but his offense bailed him out with a 7-5 victory at home against the Nationals. Back on June 8, West dominated the Giants in a 4-0 home victory, allowing just two hits over a career-high eight innings.
Cain has been dominant all season and has held the opposition to one run or less in seven of his last nine outings with the Giants going 9-2 in his last 11, though they have dropped his last two starts. On Wednesday, Cain held the Cardinals to one run in seven innings but San Francisco fell 2-1.
Cain made two starts against Florida last season and gave up a combined four runs on 10 hits in 13 2/3 innings as the teams split. Overall, San Francisco is 3-1 when Cain toes the rubber against the Marlins and 12-2 in his last 14 outings against teams from the N.L. East. On the downside, with Cain on the hill they’re on slides of 17-35 against a winning team and 8-18 in series openers.
Florida is on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road, 6-1 on Mondays and 4-0-1 against N.L. West competition. San Francisco has topped the total in 14 of its last 22 at home against left-handers, but otherwise the Giants are on “under” streaks of 5-0-1 against the N.L. East, 4-0 when Cain starts on Monday, 7-2 when Cain starts overall and 13-4 when he faces N.L. East squads. Finally, the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Texas (45-35) at L.A. Angels (45-35)
The top two teams in the American League West open their second three-game series in the last week when the Rangers send veteran Kevin Millwood (8-5, 2.80 ERA) to the mound at Angel Stadium to face Jered Weaver (8-3, 3.02).
These teams, who are now locked in tie atop the standings, met in Texas last week with the Rangers taking two of three. Texas has won five of six over its rivals this season after dropping nine of 14 a year ago. On Sunday, the Rangers completed a three-game sweep of the visiting Rays with a 5-2 victory – they’re fifth win in a row – while Los Angeles topped the Orioles 9-6 in Anaheim.
In addition to its ongoing five-game winning streak, Texas is on surges of 19-7 against A.L. West teams and 4-0 as a ‘dog, but it is just 1-4 in its last five on the road against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, the Angels are on runs of 9-3 overall, 5-1 at home, 8-1 in series openers, 5-2 on Monday and 12-5 against right-handed starters.
Millwood squared off with Weaver and the Angels on Wednesday and the Rangers’ veteran gave up four runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings, but got a no-decision as L.A. rallied in the top of the ninth inning to tie the game at 7 before Texas came back for a walk-off 9-7 victory. Texas has won five of Millwood’s last six starts, and Wednesday was the first time in eight outings that the right-hander has allowed more than three runs in a contest.
The Rangers have won both of Millwood’s starts against Los Angeles this season, with the pitcher surrendering six runs on 17 hits in 12 1/3 innings, after losing six of his previous eight starts against the Angels. Also, with Millwood pitching, Texas is on streaks of 7-0 in series openers, but 8-24 on the road and 5-11 against teams with a winning record.
Weaver got knocked around for seven runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings in Wednesday’s contest at Texas, he’s allowed 16 runs (15 earned) over 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts. He’s lost both outings against Texas this season, giving up a combined 10 runs. The Angels are just 2-5 in Weaver’s last seven starts against the Rangers, with the right-hander yielding three earned runs or more in five of his last nine against Texas.
With Weaver on the hill, the Angels on runs of 6-2 overall, 7-2 as a home favorite, 8-2 at home and 6-1 in series openers, but they’ve lost four of his last five against divisional rivals.
With Millwood on the mound, it’s been all “unders” for Texas lately, including 20-6-2 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 10-3-1 on Mondays, 9-2-2 as a ‘dog and 7-1-1 as a road pup. With Weaver pitching, the Angels are on “under” streaks of 7-3-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 8-1-1 as a home favorite and 4-1 in series openers.
As a team, the Rangers have topped the total in 16 of 23 Monday games, but they’re otherwise on “under” runs of 38-15-1 overall, 15-6 on the road, 23-8-1 against right-handed starters, 17-6-1 as an underdog and 21-7-1 against winning teams. The Angels are riding “over” streaks of 13-4-2 as a favorite, 5-2 in series openers, 9-3-1 against right-handed hurlers, 4-1 on Mondays and 9-3-1 as a home chalk.
Finally, the under is 5-0 in Millwood’s last five starts in Anaheim and 6-1-1 in Weaver’s last eight outings overall against Texas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Monday, July 6
Texas at L.A. Angels (10:05 p.m. EDT). The top teams in the AL West open a three-game series with the Rangers sending Kevin Millwood (8-5) to the mound to face Jered Weaver (8-3). Texas outfielder Josh Hamilton is expected to be activated from the disabled list in time to be in the lineup.
STARS
Sunday
-Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui, Yankees. Jeter had four hits including a go-ahead two-run homer, and Matsui homered and drove in four runs as New York rallied from a four-run deficit to beat the Toronto Blue Jays 10-8.
-Justin Morneau, Twins, celebrated another All-Star game selection with a two-run homer for Minnesota in a 6-2 victory over Detroit.
-Joe Blanton, Phillies, pitched four-hit ball into the eighth inning and Philadelphia completed a three-game sweep of the New York Mets with a 2-0 victory.
-Roy Oswalt, Astros, pitched eight solid innings giving up three hits in Houston's 7-1 win over the San Francisco Giants.
-Ricky Nolasco, Marlins, struck out 12 in eight innings to win his fourth consecutive start as Florida beat Pittsburgh 5-0.
ALL-STARS
Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols is the fans' favorite choice to start the 80th All-Star game in St. Louis. The first baseman was announced as the top vote-getter by Major League Baseball. Teammate Yadier Molina also was elected to start at catcher. Boston knuckleballer Tim Wakefield made his first All-Star roster in his 17th season, one of a major league-high six Red Sox players headed to Busch Stadium for the July 14 game.
ANGEL IN THE OUTFIELD
The Angels' Vladimir Guerrero, who played in the outfield for the first time this season after missing 35 games with a torn pectoral muscle, homered to help Los Angeles beat the Orioles 9-6. After homering Saturday, he has connected in back-to-back games for the first time since July 19-20 last season when he faced the Boston Red Sox.
OUT AGAIN
Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang went back on the disabled list with a right shoulder strain, and manager Joe Girardi said he's not sure how long the right-hander will be out of the rotation. Wang, who missed time earlier this season with a hip injury, won't begin throwing until at least after the All-Star break.
JOB SECURITY
Cleveland general manager Mark Shapiro said manager Eric Wedge and his coaching staff would remain in their jobs with the last-place Indians. The Indians, expected to contend in the AL Central Division, are 33-49, the worst record in the league. Wedge, in his seventh season as Indians manager, is 529-525.
SNAPPED
The Royals' Brian Bannister held Chicago to five hits and two runs through six innings of a 6-4 win over Chicago and snapped a personal four-game losing streak to the White Sox.
NOT AT HOME
Boston rallied for five runs in the seventh to beat Seattle 8-4 to avoid a sweep. The Red Sox haven't been swept at home this season. They also averted their first three-game losing streak at Fenway Park, where they improved to 26-12.
THE RIGHT STUFF
Through 41 games, passing the midpoint of the season, 139 home runs have been hit at the new Yankee Stadium, 18 more than the No. 2 stadium, Rangers Ballpark (121 in 45 games). Eighty-five of the homers in the Bronx have gone to right or right-center field, including the last nine.
SIDELINED
San Francisco left-hander Randy Johnson left Sunday's 7-1 loss to the Houston Astros with a left shoulder strain after committing a throwing error in the top of the fourth inning. Johnson originally hurt the shoulder when took an awkward swing against Roy Oswalt while striking out in the bottom of the third. He grabbed his shoulder as he walked back to the dugout.
SEEING THE BALL BETTER
Jimmy Rollins is 7 for 14 with a homer and three doubles after a career-worst 0-for-28 slump that included a four-game benching during the road trip. The 2007 MVP hit a solo homer against Johan Santana on Sunday to help Philadelphia beat the Mets 2-0.
STATS
Since May 1, Derrek Lee is hitting .323 with 14 home runs and 41 RBIs. He only hit one home run in April. ... Houston ace Roy Oswalt is 3-1 with a 2.13 ERA over his past four starts. ... For the fifth time in Johan Santana's 16 starts this season, the New York Mets lost by two or fewer runs.
SPEAKING
"Sometimes that's all it takes, just a little kick in the butt to get guys going. This is what I was talking about the other day: Don't give up, you never know what's going to happen.'' - Arizona's Mark Reynolds, after hitting a three-run homer to help the Diamondbacks beat the Rockies 4-3. Reynolds ranted about his team's lackluster play two days earlier.
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Two hot teams square off in a battle for top spot in the A.L.West when Los Angeles Angels (45-35, +$1196) host the Texas Rangers (45-35, +$1116) in a three game set at Angel Stadium starting Monday.
Halos ridding a 9-3 run and 23-16 (+$414) at home kick the series off with Jered Weaver (8-3, 3.10). Weaver spanked for seven runs over 5.1 innings of work vs. these same Rangers last Wednesday is 2-2 with a 3.30 ERA in eleven career starts against Texas with Halos 5-6 over the span. Weaver is 5-1 (6-2 TSR) at home with a 1.83 ERA with six of the eight contests falling below posted totals (1-6-1 O/U).
Rangers on a 78-4 tear of their own but with a losing road record (17-18, +$349) counter with Kevin Millwood (8-5, 2.80). Earning a no-decision in Rangers 9-7 victory over Halos and Weaver at home Wednesday Millwood enters with a life-time team start mark of 5-6 the past four seasons vs Angels including a 2-4 TSR hurling in Los Angeles.
It is well to note Millwood has not performed well away from Arlington this year posting a 2-4 (2-5 TSR) record. Looking deeper the righty is just 6-11 (8-15 TSR) the past two season on the highway with Rangers producing 8 'Over' 13 'Under' and 2 'Push.
Although L.A. has not had success vs Rangers this season losing 5-of-6 encounters in Arlington sportsbooks have Halos pegged -$1.38 favorites with the total set at 8.5
Toronto Blue Jays vs NY Yankees
Left-hander Ricky Romero (6-3, 2.85) will look to continue a stretch of sterling mound work and help Jays avoid a four game sweep at the hands of the Yankees. Romero in the midst of a strong run of starts along with a streak of twenty consecutive scoreless innings has gone 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA over his last six starts with Jays 5-1 over the span outscoring opponents 6.7 to 1.3. Sporting a 2.8 SWR, 1.04 WHIP, 9.41 Avg-Base-Runners-Allw/9, 20.38 Batter-Out-Rating/9 over those six games Jays w/Romero make for dangerous foes. Meanwhile, Yankees defeating Jays 4-2, 6-5 and most recently 10-8 try to sweep things up with their own southpaw Andy Pettitte (8-3, 4.25 ERA). The hurler off seven strong innings allowing just two runs on six hits in a 4-2 victory over Mariners has won three of his last five on the bump (4-1 TSR) giving Pettitte a 3.3 SWR, 1.69 WHIP, 15.25 ABRA/9, 11.52 BOR/9 rating over the five starts. Looking to play on road dogs with starters like Romero who have a BOR/9 >15, an ABRA <12 when hooked up against a home favorite starter such as Pettitte with a BOR/9 12 has paid dividends. The road dogs have won at a 79.8% clip (67-17). The average score, road team 6.0, home team 2.8.
Cubs face a tough test
The Chicago Cubs have been hot at home, winners of seven of eight, but they face a tough pitching foe on Monday night.
Atlanta Braves (+105) at Chicago Cubs
The game is being broadcast at 7:05 pm ET on ESPN2.
Chicago’s most recent home series was huge for their playoff chances. They took three of four from the Milwaukee Brewers and got over the .500 mark at 40-39. The Cubbies sit 2.5 games behind St. Louis and 1.5 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central.
Chicago averaged over five runs in the series against the Brewers and more help is coming with Aramis Ramirez. The cleanup-hitting third baseman last played in a major league game on May 9th due to a shoulder injury, but he’s expected to play tonight. The Cubs have scored a run more per game with Ramirez in the lineup.
Outfielder Reed Johnson and relief pitcher Angel Guzman are also expected to be activated from the disabled list and available to play.
Atlanta (39-42) is coming off a disappointing series loss at the Washington Nationals. That can’t happen if the Braves hope to make up ground in the NL East.
Atlanta took two of three from Chicago at home earlier this year after going 0-6 against them last year. That included getting swept at Wrigley. Fortunately, the Braves go into Monday night with arguably their best pitcher.
Jair Jurrjens (6-6, 2.73 ERA) vs. Randy Wells (3-3, 2.43 ERA)
Jurrjens is coming off a one-hit performance over seven innings against the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies. That was surprisingly his first win since May as the Braves went 0-5 in his June starts due to a lack of run support.
Still, Jurrjens brings quality stuff into every outing and certainly has the ability to limit Chicago’s offense even with the return of Ramirez.
Wells started the season in the minors but leads Chicago starters in ERA. He has gone 3-0 in his last three starts with a 2.18 ERA. He pitched great in Atlanta back on June 2nd, giving up one run and two hits in seven innings, but was victimized by the inconsistent Cubs bullpen.
Wells is very efficient with his pitch count, going over 100 just once in 10 starts. This is a great opportunity to prove to a national audience that he can match up with a quality pitcher like Jurrjens.