Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros (9-11, 4.18 ERA)
Wandy Rodriguez had a rough start to the year, winning just three of his first 14 starts. Now he’s doing his best to make everyone forget all about that by losing just once over his last nine trips to the hill. Over that span he allowed more than three runs only once while blanking his opposition three times.
Slumping
Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs (6-6, 3.65 ERA)
Gorzelanny hasn’t been terrible lately, but he hasn’t pitched the Cubs into the win column in any of his last three starts, sporting a 5.59 ERA over that stretch. Giving up big innings continues to plague the Cubs’ lefty. He gave up three runs in the first inning against the Giants last week before eventually taking the no-decision in a 5-4 loss. On the bright side, Gorzelanny has thrown at least six innings in each of his last half dozen starts.
Shaun Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays (10-6, 3.87 ERA)
Marcum was roughed up in each of his last two outings, allowing 13 runs over that span and had an awful night against the Red Sox last Wednesday. He needed 36 pitches just to get out of the first inning and allowed four dingers – the most he’s ever given up in a single start in the bigs. He leads the Jays with 10 wins after missing all of last season as he rehabbed his surgically reconstructed elbow.
MLB RoundUp For 8/16
By Dan Bebe
National League
Marlins (-134) @ Pirates with a total of 9
I don't know why it feels like James McDonald just pitched, but for some reason, that's what my mind is telling me. Clearly, that's not right. Fact is, though, McDonald has shown some signs of being a decent Big-Leaguer, just never any consistency. He's been good in 1 of 3 starts for Pittsburgh since being acquired from the Dodgers, and will be facing a Florida team that was completely shut down by Homer Bailey yesterday. The Pirates are still awful, and this line is about where I expected, given Volstad is not very good, but the Marlins are going to get more respect than the Pirates, almost regardless of the starting pitcher match-up.
Dodgers @ Braves (-155) with a total of 7
Somehow, we managed to fade the Dodgers in a game where they scored 2 runs, and it was enough to win. Because, really, those are the only wins LA is going to get. They're not scoring at all, aside from some weird games in Philadelphia, and the Braves have taken 2 of the first 3 in this series. I will admit, I like how LA's starters are going out there and giving it their all, but it hasn't been nearly enough. Billingsley is 1-3 with a respectable 3.82 lifetime ERA against the Braves, so there's a tiny bit of value there. Hanson is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA against the Dodgers, but the LA he's going to see is a dejected club, and I'd be willing to stake my reputation (or what's left of it) that about 10-15% of the Dodgers have given up on the year. Tough to take even a valuable dog that doesn't really care.
Mets @ Astros (-110) with a total of 7.5
This is a fun little showdown of lefties, each of whom has been pitching pretty well. We backed Niese in his last start, and he went 7 innings of 1-run baseball. Of course, the bullpen gave up 5 runs in the 8th inning, but Niese's fine work can't be ignored. The Mets complete inability to hit is also tough to ignore. The Astros, after a nice little run, have been playing close to .500 baseball over the last couple weeks, and Wandy has been an important part of their recent success. He's been lowering his ERA seemingly every start since the Break, and is very good at home, and lifetime 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA against the Mets. Niese is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Astros, but extremely limited action, so it's tough to know if he truly owns them, or if he had a strong day.
Padres (-111) @ Cubs with a total of N/A
When I look at this match-up, I feel like the best way to break it down is to say that Correia hasn't been good, he's been good enough. Gorzelanny hasn't been bad, he's been bad enough. As a result, Correia's Padres have won his last 2 starts, and Gorzelanny's Cubs have lost his last 3. The Cubs are coming off a strong series in St. Louis, and you have to think that coming home to host an NL West team could be something of a letdown. The Padres continue to find ways to win games, finishing off a series with the Giants with a win yesterday. This is a pretty quick turnaround for San Diego, though, and that's a reason for concern, as is Correia's lifetime 7.50 ERA against the Cubs.
American League
Tigers @ Yankees (-184) with a total of 9
Amazingly, the Tigers got a 2-run opposite field shot from backup catcher Alex Avila on Saturday, and rode that momentum to another road win in Chicago on Sunday. Can they take some of that gusto to the Bronx? Scherzer has definitely been a bright spot for this offensively weak club from Detroit, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him go 6 decent innings. Yes, he's been better at home, but if he can show some control, he can get a team of guys that hasn't seen much of him, at all. Vazquez, meanwhile, has shown the ability to get outs against the weaker teams in the AL, and I'm afraid Detroit falls into that category. He hasn't been good lately, but can Detroit really keep up the offense for 3 straight games?
Mariners @ Orioles (-134) with a total of 8.5
Can you imagine how overjoyed Orioles fans would have been 2 months ago if they heard Baltimore came home off a 3-3 road trip through Cleveland and Tampa? Well, they did just that, and it almost could have been better. Brad Bergesen, one of my least favorite starters in the League for the bulk of the year, has suddenly turned it up a few notches, and he's made 3 straight tremendous starts. Unfortunately, this line would seem to indicate that the world is catching on. Doug Fister is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Orioles, and he, too, is coming off a good start, though he hasn't been able to last deep in games since coming off the DL. This might be too expensive to back the O's, but at the same time, they sure have been playing better.
Rangers (-119) @ Rays with a total of 7
Some funny stats about this game, but let's be honest, this is the game of the night, and nothing else comes close. Cliff Lee, maybe the best lefty in baseball, and David Price, the flamethrowing youngster that just set the Rays single season wins mark with 15. Lee has actually lost to the Rays twice this year, but he was still working his way back to full strength after his injury to start the year. In his career, Lee is 6-4 with a 2.51 ERA against Tampa. An interesting note, though, in that Price is 0-2 with a 9.45 ERA against the Rangers. I worry that those career numbers are playing a part in inflating this number for the road team. The Rays always get drilled when they go to Texas, but this series in Tampa should be much more evenly matched. Tough to pick a side; tough to pick a total play, but damn if I don't want to watch the hell out of it.
Blue Jays @ Athletics (-139) with a total of 7
Considering the A's just got worked in Minnesota, this seems like quite a price to pay for Oakland. I know Brett Anderson is the future ace of this team (if his shoulder can handle it), but I would have thought Marcum had earned more respect than this. Maybe not? Either way, Oakland comes back from the Midwest, and Toronto heads north from Anaheim, so the rest factor actually favors Toronto. Marcum beat Oakland earlier this year with 6 strong innings, but his work in August has definitely left something to be desired. Anderson, since returning from the DL (again), has been lights out. There are definitely some competing factors going into this one, and maybe the Under is the best bet, unless you think the Jays hit a few out.
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Dodgers at Braves**
As of late Sunday afternoon, most betting shops were listing Atlanta (68-49, +1010) as a minus-150 favorite with a total of seven ‘over’ (minus-120). Gamblers can take the Braves on the run line to win by two or more for a plus-145 return (risk $100 to win $145).
Bobby Cox’s club has been dynamite at Turner Field all year, improving to 41-16 with Sunday’s 13-1 home win over the Dodgers. The Braves went ahead of the second-place Phillies by 2 ½ games in the National League East, pending Philadelphia’s result late Sunday against the Mets. Troy Glaus had a monster performance, popping a three-run homer for his 16th of the year along with an RBI single. Jair Jurrjens was extremely sharp in seven strong innings, upping his home record to 5-0 with a 1.83 ERA.
Los Angeles (60-58, -850) had better get busy fast if it wants to have any shot at the postseason. The Dodgers went into Sunday’s action 6 ½ games back of the Giants in the NL wild-card race. They were nine behind the NL-West-leading Padres.
Tommy Hanson (8-8, 3.51) has posted a 4-4 record and 4.04 ERA in 12 home assignments this season. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in a pair of career starts against the Dodgers. Hanson has been extremely sharp in his last thee outings, but he had had tough luck with a loss and a pair of no-decisions despite a 0.84 ERA.
Joe Torre will give the starting nod to Chad Billingsley (9-7, 3.78) in this spot. Billingsley has thrived on the road, compiling a 5-3 record and 2.96 ERA in 12 starts. The righty is 1-3 with a 3.82 ERA in five lifetime starts against Atlanta.
L.A. owns an abysmal 24-34 road ledger.
The ‘under’ is 60-53 overall for the Braves, 29-25 in its home games.
The ‘over’ is 61-55 overall for the Dodgers, but the ‘under’ has cashed at a 30-27 clip in their road games.
The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Eastern.
**Tigers at Yankees**
Most books are listing New York (72-45, +252) as an expensive minus-180 home ‘chalk.’ The total is nine flat (minus-110 either way). Bettors can dodge the risky straight price and back Joe Girardi’s squad on the run line at even-money.
Detroit (57-60, -455) has been abysmal on the road this season, limping to a 19-36 record to date. On the flip side, the Yankees are 37-20 at home in the Bronx.
The Yankees saw their AL-East lead slip to one game over the Rays, who beat the O's 3-2 Sunday while New York lost a 1-0 decision at Kansas City. The Royals cashed huge underdog tickets in the plus-190 range (risk $100 to win $190).
Javier Vasquez (9-8, 4.90) will toe the rubber for the team in pinstripes here. The veteran right-hander hasn’t won since July 26 and his velocity has been absent in recent weeks, as his heater has only been clocking in the upper-80s.
Vasquez has been extremely inconsistent all season long in his second tour of duty with the Yankees. He is 4-4 with a 4.89 ERA in nine home appearances (eight starts) this year. Vasquez went 3-0 in July, but he’s 0-1 with a 8.38 ERA in a pair of starts this month.
Vasquez is 6-8 with a 4.36 lifetime ERA against Detroit. He worked seven innings and gave up just a pair of earned runs in his only start against the Tigers this season. However, he was saddled with the loss nonetheless.
Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera is enjoying a banner campaign after getting sober and dropping a bunch of weight. Going into Sunday’s play, Cabrera was batting .338 with 26 homers and 94 RBIs. He is 10-for-26 for a .385 average with three career homers off Vasquez. Detroit OF Johnny Damon has feasted on Vasquez with a .333 average in 24 career at-bats. Damon has four doubles and a pair of homers off the right-hander.
Max Scherzer (7-9, 4.03) will be facing the Yankees for the first time in his career Monday night. The righty has been terrific at home with a 6-3 record, but Scherzer has struggled mightily on the road, going 1-6 with a 5.12 ERA in 11 starts.
The ‘under’ is 56-53 overall for the Tigers, but they have watched the ‘over’ go 27-24 in their road outings.
The ‘under’ is 59-56 overall for the Yankees, but they have seen the ‘over’ hit at a 30-25 rate in their home games at Yankee Stadium.
This game is scheduled to come off the board at 7:05 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Bettors have a great pitching matchup to dissect at The Trop in St. Pete on Monday night. Two of MLB’s premier lefties, Texas’ Cliff Lee and Tampa Bay’s David Price, will square off against one another when the Rays host the Rangers. Lee has a 6-4 record and 2.51 ERA in 12 career starts against Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Price is an atrocious 0-2 with a 9.45 ERA in 13 1/3 lifetime innings against Texas.
Tampa Bay has thrived against southpaws, posting a lucrative 25-13 record. Texas has a 20-16 record against left-handed pitching.
The 'under' has hit in seven consecutive games for the A's.
The 'over' has cashed at an MLB-best 77-44 overall clip for the Diamondbacks.
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Tips and Trends
Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics
Blue Jays: Toronto is 62-55 SU this season, yet are only 4th in the American League East division. Welcome to life in the AL East! Toronto even has a winning record on the road this year at 30-29 SU. The Blue Jays are +9.88 and +22.50 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Toronto has dominated the Athletics this season, thanks to an offense that has been dynamic. Pitcher Shaun Marcum will take the mound tonight, as he is 10-6 with an ERA of 3.87 and a WHIP of 1.22 this year. The Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 Monday games. The Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Toronto is 6-1 in Marcum's last 7 road starts against a team with a losing record. Toronto is 10-4 in Marcum's last 14 road starts overall. The Blue Jays are 2-8 in Marcum's last 10 starts against the American League West.
Blue Jays are 5-1 last 6 games during game 1 of a series.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games played on grass.
Key Injuries - C John Buck (thumb) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Athletics (-130, O/U 7): Oakland has been all but eliminated from the American League playoff picture with their current 3 game losing streak. Oakland is 57-59 SU this season, which places them 10 games behind the AL West division lead. The A's can now focus on playing their younger players, with an eye on the future. Oakland is +0.11 and -9.34 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Lefty Brett Anderson will make the start tonight, as he is 3-3 with an ERA of 2.88 and a WHIP of 1.06 this season. The Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record. Oakland is 1-5 in their last 6 Monday games overall. The Athletics are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against a right-handed starter. Oakland is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 Monday starts overall. The Athletics are 5-2 in Anderson's last 7 home starts.
Athletics are 1-7 last 8 games during game 1 of a series.
Under is 10-0-1 last 11 games against a right-handed starter.
Key Injuries - 3B Adam Rosales (ankle) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Rangers (-120, O/U 7): Texas simply keeps winning, and as a result they still own the largest division lead in baseball. The Rangers are 67-49 SU this season, which gives them an 8.5 game cushion in the American League West standings. Texas does have a winning record on the road this year at 28-26 SU. Texas is +2.41 and -9.78 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. The Rangers have faced the cream of the crop of late, as they are battling nearly the entire American League East. Ace pitcher Cliff Lee will make the road start tonight, as he is 10-5 with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.93 this year. The Rangers are 7-2 in their last 9 games during game 1 of a series. Texas is 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 2-5 in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Rangers are 3-7 last 10 games on fieldturf.
Under is 7-3 last 10 games against the American League East.
Key Injuries - RF Nelson Cruz (leg) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Rays: Tampa has struggled of late, as they've lost 6 of their past 10 games. Despite the mediocre stats of late, the Rays are still within 1 game of the major league leading New York Yankees. Tampa is 71-46 SU this season, including 36-24 SU at home. The Rays are +3.80 and 0.25 units both SU and on the RL this season. Lefty David Price will take the mound tonight, as he is 15-5 with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.24 this season. The Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 Monday games overall. The Rays are 13-3 in their last 16 home games against a left-handed starter. Tampa is 27-13 in their last 40 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Rays are 4-0 in Price's last 4 starts with 6 days of rest. Tampa is 8-1 in Price's last 9 starts during game 1 of a series. The Rays are 6-1 in Price's last 7 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Rays are 19-7 in Price's last 26 starts overall.
Rays are 6-1 last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games during game 1 of a series.
Key Injuries - 1B Carlos Pena (ankle) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 2
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Mets at Astros – The Astros are 7-0 since June 02, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $755. The Astros are 7-0 since April 28, 2009 when Wandy Rodriguez starts within 20 cents of pickem when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $745
Blue Jays at Athletics – The Blue Jays are 0-6 since June 01, 2010 as a dog after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Athletics are 8-0 since April 06, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $800. The Athletics are 6-0 since June 25, 2010 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $600.
Dodgers at Braves – The Dodgers are 0-7 since April 28, 2010 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $750 when playing against. The Braves are 7-0 since May 28, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $700.
Padres at Cubs – The Padres are 7-0 since July 18, 2009 when Kevin Correia starts after his team scored a total of seven or more runs in his last start for a net profit of $775. The Padres are 0-6 since April 25, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $610 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-10 since May 28, 2010 after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1155 when playing against.
Mariners at Orioles – The Mariners are 0-9 since April 09, 2010 as a road dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Orioles are 6-0 since May 07, 2009 when Bradley Bergesen starts at home after a quality start on the road for a net profit of $655 The Orioles are 5-0 since July 29, 2010 and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $690.
Marlins at Pirates – The Pirates are 6-0 since May 31, 2010 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $660.
Rangers at Rays – The Rangers are 0-8 since May 04, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $830 when playing against. The Rays are 9-0 since July 05, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $900. The Rays are 7-0 since July 09, 2009 when David Price starts after walking at least 4 for a net profit of $710.
Tigers at Yankees – The Tigers are 0-8 since April 19, 2010 on the road after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $825 when playing against. The Tigers are 0-8 since April 23, 2010 when Max Scherzer starts as a dog for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Tigers are 0-7 since April 07, 2010 on the road after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $745 when playing against.