Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
John Lackey (10-5, 4.26 ERA), Boston Red Sox
Lackey is finally starting to live up to that five-year, $82.5 million he signed in the offseason. The former Angels ace survived a miserable first two months of the season and has rebounded nicely in June and July.
The Red Sox are 3-0 in his last three starts and 8-4 in his last 12. He also owns a 2.35 ERA over his last three appearances.
Brett Myers (8-6, 3.10 ERA), Houston Astros
Houston traded away most of its talented veterans but held onto Myers. There’s even talk the Astros are close to signing the former Phillies hurler to an extension.
So while Houston begins its youth movement, the club wants Myers to hang around and anchor the rotation – and for good reason. Just take a look at dude’s stats.
Even with a brutal lineup and relief staff, the ‘Stros are 4-0 in Myers’ last four outings.
Slumping
Monday’s group of hurlers doesn’t feature a guy who’s really been piss poor lately, but there are three quality arms coming off terrible starts.
Fausto Carmona (10-8, 3.92 ERA), Cleveland Indians
Carmona was rocked for seven runs on 10 hits in just 2 2/3 innings last week against the Yankees.
"Fausto just didn't have it," Indians manager Manny Acta told reporters after the game. "That's the wrong lineup not to have your pitches working for you. They hit him around and put him in a big hole."
Yovani Gallardo (9-5, 2.77 ERA), Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers’ ace was a victim of the Big Red Machine in his last outing. Gallardo surrendered six runs, five of which were earned, in just 2 2/3 innings.
"It was one of those days that it just felt like anything I threw up there was going to get hit," Gallardo said after getting the hook.
Johan Santana (8-5, 3.11 ERA), New York Mets
This two-time Cy Young winner allowed a career-high 13 hits in his last trip to the hill. He got tagged for six runs in the first inning and need 38 pitches just to get out of that first frame.
"Johan really did a great job of settling down, saving our bullpen a little bit," Mets third baseman David Wright told the Associated Press after the game.
Santana allowed just one more run before being lifted in the top of the sixth inning.
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Twins at Rays**
Tampa Bay (65-39, +851) is in second place in the American League East but after winning two of three games in the Bronx over the weekend, it is just one game back of the loop-leading Yankees. James Shields threw 7 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball and fanned 11 batters in the Rays’ 3-0 win in Sunday’s series finale. He won his 10th game of the year, while Rafael Soriano captured his 30th save.
Minnesota (59-46, +380) is just one-half game behind the White Sox in the AL Central standings. The Twins won their eighth straight and completed a three-game sweep Sunday by trouncing Seattle 4-0 as minus-320 favorites. Francisco Liriano lived up the ‘chalky’ price, throwing seven scoreless innings while striking out 11. The southpaw has now thrown 21 consecutive scoreless innings.
Carl Pavano (13-6, 3.21) is enjoying his best season since 2004 when he posted a career-high 18 wins to just eight losses with a 3.00 ERA for the Marlins. That banner campaign netted the right-hander a monster contract with the Yankees, but he managed just nine total wins in pinstripes and a slew of stints on the disabled list from 2005-2008.
Pavano has been dominant in recent weeks, compiling a 3-0 record and 1.17 ERA his last three times out. He has thrived in 11 road assignments with a 7-3 record and 2.96 ERA. Pavano took a no-decision when he faced Tampa Bay earlier this year, working 6 1/3 innings while giving up just a pair of earned runs. He has a 5-3 record and 3.65 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rays.
Joe Niemann (9-3, 3.08) will take the mound for the Rays. The right-hander owns a 4-2 record and 2.75 ERA in 11 home outings this season. Niemann is 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA in a pair of career starts against the Twins.
--Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer is “doubtful” for Monday’s game with a shoulder injury. The perennial All-Star is hitting .313 with six homers and 53 RBI’s. He missed Sunday’s game and if he’s able to go Monday, it will definitely be in the designated-hitter role. Twins’ slugger Justin Morneau remains ‘out’ with a concussion, but he should be ready to come off the DL soon.
Tampa Bay is 31-21 at home in The Trop this year, while the Twins are 26-26 on the road.
The ‘under’ is 51-49 overall for the Rays, 29-21 in their home games. Meanwhile, Minnesota has seen the ‘under’ go 50-48 overall, but the ‘over’ is 25-23 in its road outings.
Most books are listing this game as a pick ‘em (minus-110 either way) with a total of 8 ½ ‘under’ (minus-115). Gamblers can bring home a monster payout by backing Tampa Bay on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).
**Mets at Braves**
Most betting shops have installed Atlanta (59-45, +666) as a minus-135 ‘chalk’ with a total of seven ‘under’ (minus-125). The Braves are plus-165 on the run line (risk $100 to win $165).
After losing six of nine games on a road trip that ended with another loss Sunday at Cincinnati, Bobby Cox’s club will be thrilled to return to Turner Field in this spot. That’s because the Braves own an MLB-best 34-13 home record. The recent struggles have allowed Philadelphia to pull to within 2 ½ games of Atlanta for first place in the NL East.
New York (53-52, -66) has been slumping lately to fall into a third-place tie with Florida in the NL East. The Mets have dropped 15 of their last 21 games, including two of three from Arizona at Citi Field over the weekend. The D-backs dealt out woodshed treatment Sunday in the form of a 14-1 clubbing. Nevertheless, Jerry Manuel’s squad is still in striking distance, 6 ½ games back of the Braves.
Cox will give the starting nod to All-Star Tim Hudson, who brings an 11-5 record and 2.40 ERA to the bump. The right-hander from Auburn threw seven scoreless innings in a win over the Mets earlier this year. Hudson owns an 11-5 record and 3.54 lifetime ERA against New York. He is 6-3 with a 2.31 ERA in nine home assignments this season.
Mets’ slugger Carlos Beltran has a .371 career batting average against Hudson in 62 at-bats. Beltran has four doubles and a pair of homers off the veteran righty.
Johan Santana (8-5, 3.11) is coming off a rough outing when he was rocked for six runs by St. Louis in the first inning. The Mets actually rallied to tie the game at 7-7 to give Santana a no-decision, but they eventually lost by an 8-7 count in 13 innings.
Santana has a great career ERA against Atlanta (2.01), but the lefty is just 2-5 in 10 starts against the Braves. He is 2-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 11 road starts in 2010.
Atlanta OF Matt Diaz has feasted on Santana with a .538 batting average in 26 career at-bats. Troy Glaus is 9-for-29 (.310) with three doubles and a pair of homers off Santana.
Atlanta second baseman Martin Prado is most likely out for the entire series against the Mets after breaking a knuckle over the weekend. Prado is fourth in the NL with a .315 batting average.
New York has been atrocious on the road, going 20-33.
The Braves are 17-17 in 34 games versus left-handed starting pitchers.
The ‘under’ is 52-48 overall for Atlanta, 22-22 in its home games.
The ‘under’ is 54-47 overall for the Mets, 25-25 in their road assignments.
ESPN will provide television coverage of the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
The Phillies were pushed to 11 innings before winning 6-4 Sunday at Washington to pull to within 2 ½ games of the Braves. However, Ryan Howard was injured and bettors should check his status before wagering on the Phils when they return to the diamond Tuesday at Florida.
The ‘over’ continues to be a lucrative wager when the D-backs take the field. They have watched the ‘over’ cash at an MLB-best 69-39 clip.
San Diego leads the majors in units earned with a plus-2141 money tally for more than 21 units of profit.
The ‘under’ is an MLB-best 58-42 for St. Louis. Speaking of the Cards, they trounced Pittsburgh 9-1 Sunday to maintain a one-half game edge over the Reds for the NL Central lead.
vegasinsider.com.
MLB RoundUp For 8/2
Dan Bebe
National League
Reds (-170) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
This card is so short, I think I can break down every game, even if I feel the price is a little out of range for a premium selection. I happen to believe that the Reds are posting pretty inflated numbers against the lesser and middle tiered opponents, so I wouldn't dare play Cincinnati in this one. I don't think I have the gall to back the Pirates, either, not with how consistently bad they are, with those 1-2 games of looking like they care every few weeks. The total is pretty solid, I believe.
Mets @ Braves (-141) with a total of 7.5
It's pretty darn surprising to see Johan Santana at this cheap of a price, but at the same time, I suppose a large portion of this line is set due to the Mets complete inability to win on the road, and the Braves extremely strong play at home. Still, it's definitely a question as to how these teams handle changes of venue. The Mets are going to be happy to be playing anyone besides the D'backs, amazingly, and the Braves really played poorly on their own road trip. There's definitely an opportunity here, for the Mets, if they can jump up and take it, since, as we've discussed many times, it often takes a team a night or two to really adjust to being back home off a long road trip. But, wow, Johan catching this kind of money line is awfully frightening.
Brewers (-121) @ Cubs with a total of N/A
Which Gallardo do we see, that's the overarching question in this one. The one that came off the DL with a flourish, or the one that had no movement on his stuff, and just got molested by the Reds in his second effort off injury. Whatever you decide, that will obviously help in handicapping this one. For what it's worth, Gallardo did go 7 shutout innings against the Cubs in his 1 start against them this year. Wells, meanwhile, is coming off a mediocre, though not terrible start against the Astros that snapped a nice run, for him. He has faced the Brewers twice, the Cubs won both, though he was markedly better in his road start. This one is back at Wrigley, but it's tough to say that either guy is coming into this one feeling great about himself.
Astros @ Cardinals (-161) with a total of 7.5
This game caught my eye because Westbrook is making his first start in the NL, and because this is about the cheapest I could ever envision the Cardinals, at home, against a team that traded away its leader, in Lance Berkman. I have to think that Myers is getting some love, and he's been more than solid in all 3 starts he's made against the Cardinals, this year. Normally, as we've noted previously, backing a long-time AL starter in his move to the NL is a pretty good one, but Westbrook is such a finesse guy, that I'm not sure he doesn't carry a little less zest than some other, younger guys, might. He's also 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA against the Astros, though only Carlos Lee has seen him from this crop. Truthfully, this is actually a cheap price on St. Louis, but it's scary-cheap.
Nationals @ D'backs (-120) with a total of 9.5
This won't really be an easy spot for either team, with the D'backs returning to Arizona off a very up-and-down road trip, while the Nats head a long way West off a fairly successful homestand, certainly for them. Livan Hernandez is 10-6 with a 3.43 ERA lifetime against the D'backs, though he hasn't seen them this year. He would seem to be a nice fit, too, considering he throws so much garbage, and the D'backs can't tell, at all, what's going on at the dish about 75% of the time. Rodrigo Lopez doesn't have much of a history with the Nats, and truthfully, neither pitcher is coming off a particularly strong outing, but each guy has the potential to put together at least a decent showing, and the Nationals are one of the worst road teams in baseball.
Padres @ Dodgers (-130) with a total of 6.5
Rematch Alert! I'm honestly a bit scared of taking the Dodgers when they're not overly motivated, and for some reason, despite picking up a starter, a very strong reliever, and trading roughly the same second baseman, they still aren't looking much like they care. Of course, that can change quickly, and the obvious edge here in LA is that the back end of the pen seems significantly more comfortable. The Padres, though, have shown they have zero issue with winning on the road, and have been able to get to Kuroda in the past. On top of that, Richard has defeated the Dodgers twice, and LA looked foolish both times. It's tough to beat the same team two times in a row, especially at rotating venues, and this line seems pretty fair, given what we know about the pitchers, the teams, and how the world should bet this matchup.
American League
Blue Jays @ Yankees (-186) with a total of 9.5
This game is officially out of our price range, for either side, really, but I will comment briefly. A.J. Burnett appears to be back in business after that unbearably rough spell. Brandon Morrow has seemed to even out to roughly where he's going to be, and I'd say the Yankees do win this game a decent percentage of the time. This often? Maybe, maybe not. I'm not willing to venture out there, not with Burnett pitching this well, and not with Morrow having pitched against the hapless Orioles in each of his last 2 starts.
Indians @ Red Sox (-211) with a total of 9
Okay, I lied. I don't like anything about this game.
Twins (-111) @ Rays with a total of 8.5
This should be a fun one, and not just because the line is so close to a pick. It also features one of the true "horses" in the Ameican League, in Carl Pavano, against a kid making his Major League debut. So, there are a few competing angles, here, too. It's always fun to back a kid in his debut, since the opposing team generally doesn't know much about him, and he's often pretty pumped. If he doesn't walk 6 guys, that's usually a good thing. Pavano pitched to a no-decision against the Rays the one time he faced them, this year, and really, he hasn't been "bad" more than once or twice all year, so finding a team he struggles with is going to be tough. Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton have given him some problems, but overall, Pavano looks strong against the Rays.
Royals @ Athletics (-210) with a total of 7.5
This one is a bit out of our price range, too, though the total is of some interest. Both starters have a career ERA over 5 against the other team, and if we think the Royals have any shot, at all, of putting together some runs even without DeJesus (injury) and Podsednik (trade), the A's should be able to get to 4, I would imagine. Only problem is that the A's did recently see Bannister, and already tagged him for 5 runs in 6.1 innings. So, seeing a line this low is a little disconcerting. Cahill's been a monster in 2010, but he, too, gave up 5 runs to this team already once this year. The Over, based on those stats, almost looks too easy.
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Royals at Athletics – The Athletics are 6-0 since May 07, 2009 when Trevor Cahill starts as a favorite when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $600. The Athletics are 5-0 since September 22, 2009 when Trevor Cahill starts after more strike outs than hits allowed for a net profit of $565.
Mets at Braves – The Braves are 0-7 since October 01, 2009 after a one run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $860 when playing against.
Astros at Cardinals – The Astros are 0-8 since June 12, 2009 as a road dog after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Astros are 5-0 since June 25, 2010 on the road and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $860. The Cardinals are 8-0 since April 29, 2010 as a 140+ favorite when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start for a net profit of $800
Brewers at Cubs – The Brewers are 0-8 since July 07, 2009 when Yovani Gallardo starts after losing as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $930 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-4 since September 12, 2009 when Randy Wells starts vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $560 when playing against.
Padres at Dodgers – The Padres are 0-8 since May 08, 2009 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Dodgers are 8-0 since July 18, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $800. The Dodgers are 8-0 since August 04, 2009 when Hiroki Kuroda starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $800.
Reds at Pirates – The Reds are 5-0 since April 14, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $740. The Pirates are 0-10 since May 28, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-8 since August 05, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $820 when playing against.
Twins at Rays – The Twins are 5-0 since June 20, 2010 when Carl Pavano starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $590.
Indians at Red Sox – The Indians are 0-6 since May 30, 2009 when Fausto Carmona starts as a 140+ dog after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Red Sox are 7-0 since April 14, 2010 when John Lackey starts when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $790.
Blue Jays at Yankees – The Blue Jays are 5-0 since June 05, 2009 as a dog when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $730. The Yankees are 8-0 since June 19, 2009 after being shutout for a net profit of $800. The Yankees are 7-0 since June 02, 2009 when A.J. Burnett starts as a home 140+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $700.