Monday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Tim Hudson (14-5, 2.15 ERA), Atlanta Braves
You’d think with Tim Hudson numbers he’d be getting more consideration for the National League Cy Young award. Here’s a guy who’s the clear No. 1 starter on a first place team and he’s only a year and change removed from major surgery.
Ubaldo Jimenez, Adam Wainwright and Roy Halladay have flasher strikeout totals but Hudson gets the job done. He keeps his pitches per inning way down thanks to a healthy dose of ground ball outs.
Atlanta is 6-0, and so is the under, in the righty’s last six starts. You want more numbers? Nine of his last 10 starts have been quality ones and he’s allowed one or less runs in five of his last six outings.
Livan Hernandez (8-8, 3.06 ERA), Washington Nationals
If you looked at his recent win-loss record, you might think Hernandez belongs in the slumping section. But we’re not going to penalize the soft-tossing righty because of a lack of run support.
The Cuban import has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven outings and the under is 8-0 in his last eight trips to the bump.
Slumping
Francisco Liriano (11-7, 3.45 ERA), Minnesota Twins
This lefty is having the opposite luck as Hernandez. He isn’t pitching well but his teammates are bailing him out.
Liriano’s numbers aren’t pretty over his last three starts: 15 1/3 innings, nine earned runs and 12 walks. He’s carrying a 2.08 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the slump and he hasn’t pitched six innings or more in any of those three appearances.
John Lackey (11-7, 4.62 ERA), Boston Red Sox
No matter how John Lackey finishes, 2010 will be a forgettable year for the big-league ace. His first season in Boston has fallen way short of the lofty expectations Red Sox backers have for the former Halos hurler.
There was a stretch where he appeared to have turned things around but he’s gone back into a funk. He’s allowed five or more runs in three of his last four starts and the Sox are 1-3 during the cold streak.
Even more troubling - opposing hitters are batting .330 off him this month.
MLB RoundUp For 8/23
By Dan Bebe
National League
Cubs @ Nationals (-155) with a total of 8.5
I honestly just can't see any reason to back the Chicago Cubs. Yes, Sweet Lou retired after yesterday's ugly loss, but if his announcement of retiring didn't get his guys to play one last solid game, then I don't see how his actual departure is going to have any impact. I'd say to keep an eye on who takes over, but what is this replacement really going to say? The guys clearly aren't playing for pride, since they're just getting manhandled by every other team in the League. I could actually see them playing better on the road, since there are zero expectations away from home. Still, the Cubs are radioactive to me, at this point.
Astros @ Phillies (-156) with a total of 9
In terms of the starters, this line is a value on the Astros. In terms of the Astros inability to score on the road, I'm not sure I can back them. Houston squeaked out one win in the series in Florida, but what we've seen is perfectly predictable. A young team with a ton of guys playing for a spot on next year's roster, are playing good baseball at HOME. The kids go out on the road, everything is uncomfortable, the pressure picks up, and suddenly they can't score. So, the question is, can Brett Myers hold the Phils to 2-3 runs? Probably, but can the bullpen go 2-3 scoreless? I doubt it. The Phillies are playing good baseball, of late, and they certainly know about Myers despite never facing them.
Cardinals (-141) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
This is a dangerous spot to back the Cardinals. Lohse gave up 7 runs in 3 innings in his return from the DL, and just has not been, at all, his usual self this year. If he gets into a rhythm, there's still plenty of hope, and his career numbers against the Pirates are solid. Pittsburgh stinks, we all know that, but Ohlendorf is actually 1-2 with a 2.77 ERA against the Cardinals, so he'll probably keep the Pirates in it for 4-6 innings. After that, it's a big question mark, but I can't advocate laying a buck-40 on the road with a guy that hasn't thrown a good game all year.
Braves (-140) @ Rockies with a total of 8
If I bet anything in this game, it would have to be the Over. I know the humidor has done some damage on Coors, and the Rockies are coming off another road struggle-fest, but these pitchers have great season numbers, and lesser player matchup numbers. Hudson is 3-2 against the Rockies, but sports a 4.65 ERA, and Helton, Giambi and Tulo have all given him some minor issues. Hammel is 0-2 with a 12.66 ERA against the Braves, so there's no way I'm getting behind that troublemaker. And the road price is a little hefty, if just barely within reason.
Reds @ Giants (-156) with a total of 7.5
I happen to believe this line is about right, since Volquez still doesn't appear to be quite right. He was starting to appear more confident, then had the wheels come off in a bad inning in Arizona. The Reds have the better travel schedule, though, flying north from LA, rather than home from a bad road trip through Philadelphia and St. Louis, which happens to be the case for the Giants. That first game back home is never an easy one, even if you need it as badly as the Giants do. The Reds, to me, seem like a live dog, and the Under is in play, since the bats don't usually wake up for the traveling team until the late innings.
American League
Royals @ Tigers (-150) with a total of 9.5
The Royals, let's remember before anything else, play very well at Comerica Park. They're not a home run hitting team, so the large dimensions play to their line drive bats quite well, and the pitchers seem, for whatever reason, quite comfortable on that Detroit mound. The issue in this one is that Bruce Chen is 1-2 with a 6.50 ERA against the Tigers, and backing a bad team with a bad starter is a recipe for a bald head. Bonderman isn't too good, either, but he'll get some outs at home, and the Tigers have 13 pitchers on their roster right now, so if time permits, and Leyland sees fit, maybe he'll just run out an arm for every out in the last 4 innings.
Yankees @ Blue Jays (-111) with a total of 9.5
I will admit, between now and when plays get locked in, I'll dig up some stuff on Ivan Nova. In the meantime, from his baseball reference page, we can see he was 12-3 with an ERA in the high 2's with the Yanks Triple-A team in Scranton-WB. It seems like he figured something out in 2009, and there has been a nice steady upward progression, since. Is he ready for the Bigs? Maybe, but you can bet the lack of video and lack of experience against him should buy the Yankees about 4 solid innings before we really see what he's made of. Morrow, meanwhile, had that incredible start against Tampa, regressed against the A's, and has been a home/road split pitcher against the Yankees, this year. I might take a peek at the Under before betting a side in this one.
Mariners @ Red Sox (-181) with a total of 9
Boston is trying to make a little push. If you guys want to talk about the total, feel free to ask, but the side is right out.
Rays (-145) @ Angels with a total of 9
Kazmir faces his old team for just the second time, and this game, like the National League contest in San Francisco, faces a home team that's going to be dealing with an uglier travel schedule than the road team. Does that mean we should fade the Angels? Not at all. They've shown that they can score a little on low rest, and this is the time of year when Scioscia is going to press his guys for whatever's left in the tank. The Rangers have been scuffling, and to some small degree, have let the Angels sniff a tiny bit of life. I expect a well-played game from both clubs, and that makes for a tough handicap.
Monday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Monday baseball card has 10 games on display for bettors to place a wager on, including a trio of late first-pitches out west. The Reds start the third leg of their road trip at San Francisco, while the Angels return home to host the AL Wild Card-leading Rays. We'll start at Coors Field with Colorado trying to bounce back from a lousy trip as Atlanta comes to town.
Braves at Rockies - 8:40 PM EST
Odd years have been special to Colorado, while even years just don't seem to work out for Jim Tracy's team. The Rockies haven't finished above .500 in an even year since 2000, as Colorado looks to buck that trend this season. The Braves, meanwhile, are eyeing their first playoff appearance since 2005 as Atlanta leads the NL East by 2 ½ games over Philadelphia.
Tim Hudson (14-5, 2.15 ERA) is the dark horse in the NL Cy Young Award race, as the veteran has given up four earned runs in his last six starts (6-0). The Braves haven't scored many runs for Hudson during this six-game winning streak, resulting in a 5-1 'under' run. Atlanta owns a 6-6 record in his 12 road starts, despite an ERA of 2.46 on the highway. Hudson is 3-2 in his career against the Rockies, but both losses came at Coors Field.
The Rockies send out Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.36 ERA), who is making only second home start since July 10. Colorado is 8-3 in his 11 starts at Coors, while the 'under' has cashed eight times. Hammel has not been profitable as an underdog recently, as the Rockies are 1-4 in his previous five outings at plus-money. Facing the Braves isn't a good spot for Hammel, who has allowed 15 earned runs in 10.2 innings against Atlanta in his career.
The Braves took two of three from the Rockies at Turner Field in mid-April, with the lone Colorado win coming from the Ubaldo Jimenez no-hitter in the second game of that series. The Rockies own a 5-3 mark the last eight matchups with the Braves at Coors Field.
Rays at Angels - 10:05 PM EST
Tampa Bay continues its trip through the Golden State, heading south to Anaheim after splitting a four-game set at Oakland. The Angels come back home following a tough stretch at Boston and Minnesota, losing five of six games. The Rays remain one game behind the Yankees in the AL East race, but still lead the AL Wild Card race.
Ex-Rays lefty Scott Kazmir (8-10, 6.40 ERA) takes the mound for the Halos, going for his third win in eight home starts. Kazmir has won just one outing since June 19, while losing his last start at Boston, 7-5. The southpaw gave up eight hits and four earned runs in five innings, the fifth time in seven starts he has lasted five innings or less. Kazmir lost to his old mates at home in May, giving up seven hits and three earned runs in five innings of a 7-2 setback.
James Shields (11-11, 4.82 ERA) is trying to build off a victory in his last start against the AL West-leading Rangers, limiting Texas to two runs (one earned) in seven innings. Consistency has been difficult for the Tampa Bay right-hander, who has put together consecutive quality starts only once since the start of June. The Southern California native returns home where he has been shelled in two career starts in Anaheim, allowing 12 earned runs in a pair of defeats.
Tampa Bay captured two of three meetings in Anaheim back in May, improving the Rays' to 2-6 the last eight matchups in Orange County. After getting swept by the Red Sox in late July, the Halos are 6-3 the last nine home contests.
Reds at Giants - 10:15 PM EST
A pair of upstart teams that are on the doorstep of the playoffs begins a crucial three-game series at AT&T Park. Cincinnati continues its run through the NL West, looking for a third series victory on this trip after taking series at Arizona and Los Angeles. San Francisco returns to the Bay following a subpar 2-4 road swing at Philadelphia and St. Louis.
Matt Cain (9-10, 3.11 ERA) looks to stop the bleeding for the Giants, who begin Monday's action two games behind the Phillies in the NL Wild Card race. Cain lost at Philadelphia his last time out, allowing five runs (two earned) in six innings of an 8-2 setback. The righty hasn't lost at home since a 4-2 defeat to the Dodgers on June 29, with San Francisco going 4-0 in his previous four outings at AT&T Park. Cain tossed a complete-game shutout at Cincinnati on June 8, scattering seven hits in a 3-0 victory.
The Reds send out Edinson Volquez (3-1, 4.98 ERA), who has been nearly an automatic win for Cincinnati since he was activated from the disabled list after the All-Star Break. Cincinnati is 6-1 in his seven starts, including a perfect 4-0 record as an underdog. Volquez hasn't been as sharp on the highway, owning an ERA of 6.00 in three road starts, but the Reds' offense has plated double-digit runs twice in three wins. The righty will be facing the Giants for the first time since 2008, as Volquez struck out 10 in seven innings of a 10-1 pounding of San Francisco at AT&T Park on April 27, 2008.
San Francisco and Cincinnati split a four-game set at the Great American Ballpark in June, but the Reds have enjoyed success by the Bay with wins in four of their past six road games in this series. Following Sunday's win at Los Angeles, the Reds improved to 12-2 the last 14 contests on the highway.
vegasinsider.com
Tips and Trends
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
BRAVES: (-140, O/U 8) Atlanta is playing well right now, winners of 7 of their past 10 games overall. The Braves have been quite consistent all season long, as they are chasing the Padres for the best record in the National League. Atlanta is 72-51 SU this year, placing them 2.5 games ahead of Philadelphia in the National League East division. The Braves are +10.45 and +13.65 units both SU and on the RL this season. Ace pitcher Tim Hudson has been dominant all season long, and will look to keep up his torrid pace. Hudson is 14-5 this year, with an ERA of 2.15 and a WHIP of 1.09. The Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 games during game 1 of a series. Atlanta is 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Braves are 42-19 in their last 61 games against a right-handed starter. Atlanta is 5-0 in Hudson's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Braves are 5-0 in Hudson's last 5 starts against a team with a winning record.
Braves are 5-1 last 6 games against the National League West.
Under is 11-4-1 last 16 games during game 1 of a series.
Key Injuries - 3B Chipper Jones (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 4 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
ROCKIES: Colorado has been slumping of late, and as a result their playoff chances are all but gone. The Rockies are 62-60 SU this season, a full 11 games behind the National League West division lead. The Rockies have been incredibly inconsistent offensively of late, as they've been held to 1 run or fewer in 3 of their past 5 games. Colorado is -9.88 and -1.04 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Pitcher Jason Hammel will make the home start tonight, as he is 8-7 with an ERA of 4.36 and a WHIP of 1.30 this season. The Rockies are 80-38 in their last 118 home games. Colorado is 4-14 in their last 18 games against a right-handed starter. The Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 games during game 1 of a series. Colorado is 1-8 in their last 9 games against the National League East. The Rockies are 4-1 in Hammel's last 5 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 18-6 in Hammel's last 24 home starts. Colorado is 2-5 in
Hammel's last 7 starts during game 1 of a series. The Rockies are 1-6 in Hammel's last 7 starts against the National League East.
Rockies 19-7 last 26 home games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0-1 last 5 games against a right-handed starter.
Key Injuries - CF Carlos Gonzalez (knee) is probable.
Projected Score: 2
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Rays at Angels – The Rays are 6-0 since May 04, 2010 after scoring 3 runs or less and winning as a favorite for a net profit of $600. The Angels are 0-5 since May 11, 2010 when Scott Kazmir starts at home for a net profit of $560 when playing against.
Yankees at Blue Jays – The Yankees are 0-6 since April 25, 2010 on the road after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $750 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 6-0 since April 19, 2010 when Brandon Morrow starts as a home favorite for a net profit of $600
Reds at Giants – The Giants are 8-0 since April 11, 2010 as a home favorite after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $800.
Cubs at Nationals – The Cubs are 0-5 since July 28, 2010 after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $535 when playing against. The Nationals are 6-0 since May 04, 2010 when Livan Hernandez starts at home in the first game of a series for a net profit of $620
Astros at Phillies – The Phillies are 8-0 since July 27, 2010 as a 140+ favorite when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $800.
Cardinals at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-8 since June 19, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $820 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-6 since May 10, 2010 vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
Twins at Rangers – The Twins are 15-0 since April 15, 2010 as a favorite when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1500.
Mariners at Red Sox – The Mariners are 0-7 since June 09, 2010 as a road 140+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Red Sox are 6-0 since June 01, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $600
Braves at Rockies – The Braves are 0-10 since June 04, 2010 after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $1105 when playing against. The Braves are 6-0 since May 21, 2010 when Tim Hudson starts as a favorite after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $600. The Rockies are 9-0 since April 24, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings for a net profit of $900
Royals at Tigers – The Royals are 0-6 since July 20, 2010 as a dog after a one run win for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Tigers are 7-0 since June 12, 2010 as a home favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $700