Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Justin Verlander (13-7, 3.29 ERA), Detroit Tigers
Verlander’s 2008 campaign was marred with inconsistency, but he’s been old reliable for the Tigers this season.
The 2006 AL Rookie of the Year has walked just five batters in his last five starts and he can get out of most jams with his heater. Verlander is second in the majors with 204 strikeouts after last week’s 10-K performance against the Mariners.
“I’m sure he cares more about the wins than the strikeouts,” Detroit manager Jim Leyland said following the 3-1 loss to Seattle. “He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, and his best years should still be ahead of him.”
Backing Verlander always comes at a cost. He’s been priced at -180 or higher in four of his last six starts. An away start at Los Angeles opens the door to some welcome value.
Barry Zito (8-11, 4.26 ERA), San Francisco Giants
He may not be a cost-effective starter for the Giants ownership, but the Z-man has been a great bargain for his backers.
San Francisco has won five of the $126 million-man’s last six outings and the under has cashed in eight of his last 10 appearances.
While he doesn’t blow anybody away with his fastball – he tops out around 89 mph – he gets the job done. The southpaw has a 2.36 ERA in seven starts since July 16.
Slumping
Collin Balester (1-3, 6.75 ERA), Washington Nationals
We don’t like to beat a dead horse, but if Balester was pitching for any other team in the bigs, he’d probably find himself on his way to the minors.
The 23-year-old righty has just one quality start in six outings this season. He’s been tagged for nine home runs in just 25 1-3 innings.
The Rockies touched home plate three times before Balester was yanked in the second inning last week. He says a rushed delivery was the reason he surrendered five free bases.
“I’ve pinpointed it, and now I need to execute it,” he told reporters after the game. “I’ve been trying so hard, and I think that’s my biggest problem. I’ve been trying too much.”
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (67-57) at Colorado (70-54)
The top two teams in the race for the National League wild card conclude a four-game set at Coors Field when the Giants’ send left-hander Barry Zito (8-11, 4.26 ERA) to the mound opposite Rockies right-hander Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.58).
Colorado rallied to win Sunday’s contest 4-2 and has won two of the first three in this series to move three games ahead of San Francisco in the chase for the wild card. Colorado has won 13 of the last 18 meetings with the Giants dating back to last season.
San Francisco is 4-2 in its last six games against right-handed starters, but just 3-8 in its last 11 road games against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Rockies are impressive runs of 50-23 overall, 9-3 at home and 7-0 when wrapping up a four-game series.
Zito has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts and blanked the Reds on Wednesday on two hits over six innings, getting a no-decision in the Giants’ 1-0 win. San Francisco is 5-1 in Zito’s last six starts, and he’s held the opposition to two earned runs or less in six of his last seven outings.
Zito shut out the Rockies for seven innings on May 3, allowing just two hits in the 1-0 victory. Going back to 2006, the Rockies are just 2-6 when facing Zito. However, the former Cy Young winner is just 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA in 13 road outings this season.
Marquis allowed three runs on nine hits in six innings of a 5-4 win in Washington on Wednesday as the Rockies improved to 16-8 behind the veteran pitcher this season, including 6-3 in his last nine starts. Marquis has faced the Giants twice this season, giving up just one run in a complete-game 5-1 win on May 2, but getting hit hard five days later in Colorado, allowing seven runs (five earned) in six innings of an 8-3 loss.
With Marquis on the hill, the Rockies are on runs of 12-5 overall, 5-2 at home and 5-1 against the N.L. West. He’s 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA at Coors Field.
With Zito starting, the Giants are on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 5-0 on the road and 5-2 on four days of rest, and as a team they have stayed below the total in nine of 12 against right-handers. When Marquis pitches, Colorado is on “under” streaks of 11-5-1 overall, 4-0 on Mondays and 4-1 against the N.L. West, but as a team, the Rockies have topped the total in nine of 16 overall and eight of 10 against winning teams.
Finally, the under is 5-1-1 in Zito’s seven career starts against Colorado.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (65-58) at L.A. Angels (74-48)
Division leaders square off in the first of a three-game set in Southern California when Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander (13-7, 3.29 ERA) opposes the Angels’ Jered Weaver (13-4, 3.83) at Angel Stadium.
Detroit dropped two of three in Oakland over the weekend, including Sunday’s 9-4 loss when the A’s sealed the game with a four-run eighth inning. Detroit is on slides of 8-22 on the road and 8-20 on Mondays, but it has won five of its last six series openers.
Los Angeles just wrapped up a 10-game road trip with Sunday’s 8-3 loss at Toronto, going 6-4 on the trip, but just 1-3 in the last four. Despite the mini slump, the Angels remain on a plethora of positive streaks, including 38-16 overall, 68-33 at home against winning teams, 14-5 against the A.L. Central and 4-1 on Mondays.
Against Detroit, the Angels have won 46 of 65 overall and 27 of 35 in Southern California, though the clubs have split six meetings this year, with the host going 4-2.
The Tigers have won five of Verlander’s last seven outings, but dropped a 3-1 decision to the Mariners on Wednesday, yielding all three runs on six hits in eight innings. He was magnificent in his last roadie, blanking the Red Sox on four hits over eight innings of a 2-0 win. However, he’s just 6-5 with a 4.27 ERA in 14 road outings this season.
Verlander faced these Angels on June 5 and blanked them over eight innings on four hits but didn’t get any support, losing 2-1. Six weeks earlier, he made his only career start at Angel Stadium and got destroyed, allowing seven runs on nine hits over five innings, but Detroit rallied for a 12-10 win. It’s the Tigers’ only win in Verlander’s five career starts against Los Angeles.
The Angels have won eight of Weaver’s last nine outings and the young hurler is 8-1 at home this season with a 2.66 ERA. On Wednesday he threw a complete-game shutout at Cleveland, winning 3-0. Back on April 21 he gave up three runs on seven hits in seven innings of a 4-3 home win over the Tigers. With Weaver on the hill, Los Angeles is on runs of 26-9 at home, 6-0 against the A.L. Central and 5-1 in series openers.
With Verlander on the bump, Detroit has topped the total in 10 of 11 Monday starts and 17 of 25 series openers. But as a team, the Tigers are on “under” runs of 4-2-1 overall, 15-8-1 on the road and 14-5-2 against right-handed starters.
It’s been all “overs” lately for the Angels and Weaver, including 10-2 in his last 12 starts, 5-1 when he pitches at home and 4-0 in his last four series openers. Also, the Angels have gone over the posted number in 38 of 55 overall, 24 of 33 at home and 14 of 18 at home against teams with losing road records. Conversely, the under is 10-5 in the last 15 meetings between these clubs (3-3 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
GAMETIMEPICKS.COM
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Monday, Aug. 24
San Francisco at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EDT). Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.58 ERA) gets the ball for NL wild card-leading Colorado in the finale of its important four-game set against San Francisco at Coors Field. Barry Zito (8-11, 4.26) is scheduled to start for the Giants.
STARS
Sunday
-Eric Bruntlett, Phillies, turned an unassisted triple play to finish Philadelphia's wild 9-7 victory over the New York Mets.
-Michael Cuddyer, Twins, homered twice in an eight-run seventh inning to help Minnesota break open a close game for a 10-3 victory at Kansas City.
-Albert Pujols, Cardinals, hit his 40th homer in St. Louis' 5-2 win at San Diego.
-Jack Cust, Athletics, homered twice and drove in four runs in a 9-4 victory over Detroit.
-CC Sabathia, Yankees, became the majors' first 15-game winner, pitching New York to an 8-4 win over Boston.
-Brian McCann, Braves, hit a tiebreaking two-run single in the eighth inning and matched a career high with five RBIs, leading Atlanta to a 7-5 win over the Florida Marlins.
-Scott Feldman, Rangers, struck out a career-high 11 in seven innings to win his fifth consecutive road start as Texas avoided a three-game sweep by beating Tampa Bay 4-0.
-Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies, pitched eight strong innings to help Colorado beat Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants 4-2 at Coors Field.
-Angel Pagan, Mets, homered twice, including an inside-the-park shot, in New York's 9-7 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies.
-Travis Snider, Blue Jays, went 3 for 3 with a homer and a walk in Toronto's 8-3 win over the Los Angeles Angels.
-Jake Fox, Cubs, went 4 for 4 with a home run and two RBIs in Chicago's 3-1 win at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
-Homer Bailey, Reds, tossed seven sharp innings to help Cincinnati win 4-1 at Pittsburgh.
NICE FIRST IMPRESSION
John Smoltz had a brilliant debut with the St. Louis, striking out a season-high nine - including seven straight - and holding San Diego to three hits over five scoreless innings in a 5-2 victory. Smoltz also had a bunt single and scored the first run. The 42-year-old Smoltz (1-0) signed with the Cardinals on Wednesday after he cleared waivers following his release from the Red Sox. He had a dreadful performance with Boston, going 2-5 with an 8.32 ERA after attempting a comeback from shoulder surgery.
DOUBLE TROUBLE
Michael Cuddyer homered twice in Minnesota's eight-run seventh inning and the Twins beat Kansas City 10-3. Cuddyer hit the first pitch of the seventh for a homer, then added a two-run shot that put Minnesota up 9-1. Playing his sixth straight game at first base in place of Justin Morneau (ear infection), Cuddyer became the first Twins player to hit two homers in an inning and the first in the majors since Boston's David Ortiz did it against Texas last August.
WHAT A PLAY
Second baseman Eric Bruntlett's unassisted triple play in the Philadelphia's 9-7 victory over the New York Mets was the 15th in major league history - the second that ended a game. Detroit Tigers first baseman Johnny Neun also accomplished the feat on May 31, 1927, completing a 1-0 victory over Cleveland, according to STATS LLC. It also was the first unassisted triple play since Cleveland second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera turned one in the fifth inning on May 12, 2008, against Toronto.
NOT SO PERFECT
Mark Buehrle (11-7) yielded five runs and 11 hits in 5 1-3 innings for the Chicago White Sox in a 5-4 loss to Baltimore. The All-Star lefty is 0-4 with a 6.22 ERA in six starts since his perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays on July 23.
THE UPSHOT
After beating Boston 8-4 Sunday night to take two out of three in the series, The Yankees improved to 16-4 in their last 20 games and won their 10th series out of 11 since the All-Star break. They lead the second-place Red Sox by 7 1/2 games in the AL East.
BETTER, AT LEAST FOR A DAY
The woeful Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals snapped losing streaks. Ryan Roberts matched a career high with four hits and Arizona beat the Houston Astros 7-5 to snap a season-high seven-game skid. Ryan Zimmerman, Cristian Guzman and Adam Dunn homered, and the Nationals beat the Milwaukee Brewers 8-3 to stop a five-game slide.
HEROES BACK HOME
Miguel Cabrera had three hits, including his 200th homer, in Detroit's 9-4 loss at Oakland. Cabrera is the fifth player from Venezuela with at least 200 homers, joining Tony Armas, Bobby Abreu, teammate Magglio Ordonez and Andres Galarraga.
FINDING HIS FORM
Fausto Carmona pitched seven strong innings for his first win in more than three months, leading Cleveland to a 6-1 victory over Seattle. Carmona (3-8) gave up Ken Griffey Jr.'s 624th homer, but otherwise was in command while winning for the first time in nine starts since beating Tampa Bay on May 14. He allowed five hits, walked one and had a season-high eight strikeouts. A 19-game winner in 2007, Carmona's control abandoned him in 2008 as he went 8-7 with a 5.44 ERA and 12 more walks than strikeouts. The right-hander opened this season with a 2-6 record and 7.42 ERA before being sent to the minors on June 5. In five starts since he was recalled July 31, the 25-year-old is 1-2 with a 2.79 ERA.
YOUNG GUNS
Ricky Romero (11-5) pitched Toronto to an 8-3 victory over the Los Angeles Angels, tying Tampa Bay's Jeff Niemann for the AL rookie lead in wins.
SPEAKING
"What a bizarre ending. I don't know what happened there. The game's over, so I'm happy with that.'' - Phillies closer Brad Lidge after second baseman Eric Bruntlett turned a rare unassisted triple play to preserve Philadelphia's 9-7 victory over the New York Mets.
Verlander takes on Angels
By Brobury Sports
Detroit ace Justin Verlander is an underdog for just the second time in 19 games.
Verlander and the Tigers are +110 dogs for this 10:05 pm ET game on ESPN2.
Detroit (65-58) continued to struggle on the road over the weekend, losing two of three at Oakland. They are now just 25-38 away compared to 40-20 at home. They still lead the Chicago White Sox by 2.5 games in the AL Central but they need to start playing better outside of Motown.
Los Angeles (74-48) is a comfortable 5.5 games up on Texas in the AL West but they got cooled off to end their 10 game road trip. The Angels dropped an 11-3 contest at Cleveland on Thursday and then lost two of three North of the Border in Toronto.
L.A. was a red-hot 24-8 before the loss at Cleveland, mostly due to their offense. The last four games have been a different story as they’ve averaged 4.25 runs, down from their MLB leading 6.7 runs since the break.
L.A could be struggling because of fatigue. They’ve had one day off since August 3rd and now have to fly from Toronto for this game. Going against one of the best pitchers in baseball isn’t going to help either.
Justin Verlander (Detroit) vs. Jered Weaver (L.A. Angels)
Verlander (13-7, 3.29 ERA) has been great this season but at least more hittable this month. His August ERA is 3.90 which is the first month it’s been over 3.00 since his tough start in April.
Verlander has a 2.05 ERA in his last three road starts and it’s come in very tough venues Boston, Texas and New York (Yankees). Much of his success this year has come from the return of his fastball. He is consistently pitching in the mid to upper 90’s, where last year he was at 90-92 mph.
Weaver (13-4, 3.89 ERA) has a 5.85 ERA in his last 11 starts, but L.A. has won nine of those games due to ridiculous run support. His last start was actually the best of the last two months, throwing a complete game shutout against lowly Cleveland on Wednesday.
Bettors should note that Weaver is 8-1 at home this year with a 2.76 ERA, but he can’t rely on a lot of runs against Verlander.
Note that L.A. is 16-6 in their last 22 opening games of a series. Detroit is 5-1 in that area although four of those series came at home.