NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (58-47) at Houston (52-53)
The surging Giants begin a brief three-game road trip when they hand the ball to All-Star Matt Cain (12-2, 2.12 ERA) at Minute Maid Park, while the Astros will counter with struggling southpaw Mike Hampton (6-8, 5.36).
San Francisco concluded a 6-1 homestand with Sunday’s 7-3 victory over the Phillies. However, prior to this recent run, the Giants had lost eight of 11 overall, including going 3-7 on the road. In fact, they’re in a 3-9 funk as a visitor, but on the bright side, San Francisco is on upticks of 4-0 against the N.L. Central, 7-2 in series openers, 10-3 against lefty starters and 20-8 against teams with a losing record.
Houston halted a four-game losing skid in surprising fashion Sunday, riding rookie Bud Norris to a 2-0 victory at St. Louis. The Astros are still just 2-7 in their last nine overall, including two ugly losses to the Mets at home (10-3 and 8-3). Prior to losing those two to New York, Cecil Cooper’s club had won 12 of 15 at Minute Maid Park. Houston’s streaks include 20-9 against the N.L. West, 4-1 on Monday and 5-2 in series openers, but 1-4 against both winning clubs and right-handed starters.
San Francisco took two of three from the Astros at home a month ago, winning both games by a combined score of 22-0. However, Houston is still 7-2 in the last nine series meetings, including a four-game sweep at Minute Maid last season by the combined tally of 27-11.
The Giants have won five straight games with Cain on the bump, and the right-hander was brilliant in each game, allowing a total of four runs (three earned) in 31 1/3 innings (0.86 ERA). Cain hasn’t given up more than one earned run in any of his last six starts, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three road outings during this stretch. For the season, he’s 6-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 11 starts on the highway.
With Cain on the hill, the Giants are on runs of 16-5 overall, 6-2 on the road, 4-1 on Monday and 5-0 on the highway against losing teams. He’s faced Houston three times (two starts), going 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA.
Hampton got lit up at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, allowing nine runs on eight hits and four walks in four inning of a 12-0 loss. Hampton has surrendered 23 runs (22 earned) in his last four starts covering just 19 innings (10.42 ERA), and the Astros lost three of those games by the combined score of 30-4.
The Astros are still 35-17 in Hampton’s last 52 trips to the mound overall – going way to back to his first stint with the club from 1994-99 – and 10-3 in his last 13 against the N.L. West, but they’ve lost seven of his last 10 at home. Nine of those home starts have come this year, with Hampton going 3-3 with a 5.04 ERA. He’s also 15-4 with a 3.59 ERA in his career against the Giants, including 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two contests in 2008.
The over is 4-1-1 in the last six Astros-Giants clashes, 4-1 in Houston’s last five home games and 12-5-1 in Hampton’s last 18 home starts. Conversely, the under for Houston is on streaks of 3-0 overall, 36-16-3 on Monday and 46-20-2 in series openers, while the Giants are on “under” tears of 6-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-0 against the N.L. Central, 18-6-2 on the highway versus southpaw starters, 4-0 overall with Cain pitching and 4-0 with Cain working on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and UNDER
Milwaukee (52-53) at L.A. Dodgers (65-40)
The Dodgers return home after a weeklong road trip and open a three-game series with the Brewers. Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 2.76 ERA) is slated to toe the rubber for Los Angeles opposite Manny Parra (5-8, 6.50) in a battle of left-handers.
L.A. concluded a seven-game trip with Sunday’s 9-1 rout of the Braves. The Dodgers still lost four of seven on the trip and have followed up a five-game winning streak by losing six of their last 10. Still, Joe Torre’s club is on positive runs of 54-25 at home, 48-17 at home against losing squads, 23-9 overall versus teams with a sub-.500 record, 5-2 on Monday and 8-3 in series openers.
Milwaukee avoided a three-game sweep at lowly San Diego on Sunday with a 5-1 victory. Still, since July 1, the Brewers are mired in slumps of 10-18 overall, 5-9 on the highway and 2-5 against the N.L. West, and they’ve also lost four straight games against lefty starters and four consecutive series openers.
The Dodgers have had Milwaukee’s number in recent years, winning 35 of the last 51 meetings overall, including 19 of the last 26 played in Los Angeles. In the only other series this season between these teams, L.A. took two of three in Wisconsin three weeks ago.
Parra has followed up consecutive gems (one run allowed in 13 innings) with back-to-back disastrous outings, allowing nine runs on 19 hits in 11 innings in home games against the Braves (9-4 loss) and Nationals (7-5 win). The Brewers have come up empty in 20 of Parra’s last 27 starts overall (including seven of the last nine) and 13 of his last 16 on the highway, and they’ve lost four in a row to N.L. West opponents with Parra on the hill.
Parra is 3-5 with a 7.92 ERA on the road in nine road starts and 4-4 with a 7.22 ERA in night games. In two starts against the Dodgers (both last year), he gave up seven runs (five earned) on 17 hits, with the Brewers losing 6-4 at home and 5-3 on the road.
Kershaw twirled another masterpiece at St. Louis on Wednesday, scattering four hits and two walks while striking out seven over eight scoreless innings. He left with a 1-0 lead, but Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton blew the save and L.A. eventually lost 3-2 in 15 innings. Over his last nine starts, the 21-year-old southpaw has given up a total of six runs (five earned) in 56 2/3 innings, good for a 0.95 ERA. That includes a 7-4 win at Milwaukee on July 12, as he gave up a run on two hits in six innings, improving to 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts versus the Brewers.
Kershaw has been brilliant at Dodger Stadium in 2009, going 3-2 with a 1.75 ERA, allowing just one home run in 61 2/3 innings. Los Angeles is 7-2 in Kershaw’s last nine trips to the mound and 4-1 in his last five a home.
The Brewers carry “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 12-2-1 against lefty starters, 10-1 on Monday, 5-0 in series openers, 5-1 with Parra starting on the road and 8-1 with Parra opposing N.L. West foes. The “over” is also 4-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last six home contests, and six of the last eight series clashes between these clubs have cleared the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and OVER
Gametimepicks.com
Monday's Nuggets
By Brian Edwards
There are only nine games on MLB’s card for Monday. Six games will go down between National League clubs, including a pair of late-night tilts on the west coast. Gamblers have just three AL games and one goes early (12:05 p.m. Eastern) between the Royals and the Rays.
Let’s throw out a few quick-hit thoughts on several games and some of the division and wild-card races…
Detroit is the most expensive favorite on Monday’s board, as ‘chalky’ as minus-300 versus Baltimore at a few books. That’s because red-hot RHP Justin Verlander (12-5, 3.16 ERA) is poised to toe the slab. Verlander is 4-0 with a 1.85 career ERA against the Orioles. He is 7-0 with a 1.15 ERA in nine home assignments this season.
Oakland LHP Brett Anderson will take the bump tonight as the A’s host Texas as short home favorites. Anderson has been sharp recently, posting a 2-1 record and 1.87 ERA in five starts during the month of July. With that said, we should note that the Rangers have feasted on southpaws with a 22-14 record against left-handed starters.
Washington won a 5-3 decision Sunday at Pittsburgh as a plus-128 underdog. However, I’m real bullish on the Pirates in Monday’s series finale at PNC Park. The Nats are winless in Garrett Mock’s three starts this season. Mock, who made 13 relief appearances before joining the rotation, has an abysmal 7.09 ERA. Pittsburgh will turn to Charlie Morton, who is 1-1 with a 3.06 ERA his last three times out.
The Pirates are 28-20 at home, while Washington is a pathetic 13-39 on the road.
Arizona RHP Dan Haren (10-6, 2.19) has been one of the few bright spots for the Diamondbacks this year. He’ll take the ball Monday against the Mets and ‘Zona is an expensive (-185ish) road ‘chalk.’ The D-backs won 5-2 at Citi Field on Sunday, hooking up their backers with a plus-110 payout.
Just a monster win for the Marlins on Sunday, as they rallied from a 2-1 deficit in the ninth inning thanks to back-to-back homers from Dan Uggla and Cody Ross. The Fish won by a 3-2 count to stay within three games of the NL wild-card leaders, San Francisco and Colorado. The victory was even sweeter in that Florida produced its comeback win against former closer Kevin Gregg.
I want to tip my cap to every gambler that played the Astros as plus-255 underdogs (risk $100 to win $255) in Sunday’s 2-0 win over St. Louis with Adam Wainwright throwing.
Dodgers slugger Manny Ramirez doesn’t have an RBI in 42 consecutive at-bats. L.A. returns to Chavez Ravine tonight to take on Milwaukee as a minus-210 favorite. Joe Torre’s team spanked Atlanta by a 9-1 score last night before jumping the red eye out of Hartsfield-International.
Likewise, the Braves headed west to start a series at San Diego tonight. They are short road favorites against the Padres.
The Yankees dodged a sweep against the White Sox by prevailing 8-5 Sunday in the Windy City. They maintain a one-half game lead over Boston in the AL East. The Red Sox won their fourth straight Sunday, clobbering Baltimore in an 18-10 triumph as minus-150 road ‘chalk.’
Bettors have a chance to back one of MLB’s hottest pitchers tonight in San Francisco’s Matt Cain. Not only that, but the Giants can be had at an affordable minus-135 price (at least at The Palms as of early this morning). They are on the road facing Houston with Mike Hampton on the mound. Hampton is all over my fade list right now and the stat I’m about to mention doesn’t scare me away from a play on the Giants. With that said, we’d be remiss to not touch on Hampton’s 15-4 career record against San Francisco.
The Cubs are minus-150 favorites tonight at Cincinnati. They will give the ball to Randy Wells, who is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA in his last three outings. On the other hand, Aaron Harang is 0-3 with a 6.30 ERA his last three times out.
vegasinsider.com.
Money Burner
By SportsPic
Rays and Royals complete at four-game set at Tropicana Field Monday in an early start. Getting bounced 8-2, 7-1 in the first two of this test the Royals behind seven strong from Brian Bannister and 3 RBI's from outfielder Mitch Maier won game-three 4-1 snapping an eight game losing streak vs Rays. Royals will aim for a series split trotting out arguably the A.L.'s best pitcher Zack Greinke (10-6, 2.08). The righty despite his third straight solid performance failed to win Wednesday at Baltimore and has gone winless in five appearances with Royals now 2-9 in his last eleven on the bump providing the hurler a messily 2.3 runs of support costing backers -$1085 at the betting window. Royals continually wasting fine performance by their ace starter have been pegged +$1.20 underdogs for the contest. Meanwhile, Rays counter with struggling left-hander Scott Kazmir (5-6, 6.22). The southpaw however did have a statement performance on Tuesday going a strong seven of 5 hit 1 run ball in a 6-2 victory over Yankees marking an end to seven winless starts. But, it is well to note Rays are 1-7 in Kazmir's last eight trips to the mound following a quality start in his last appearance. Total players should make note the 'Under' is 10-1-2 the past thirteen meetings and that Royals are 7-2 'Under' on the highway with Greinke while Rays are 15-2-2 'Under' vs. an A.L. Central opponent.
Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
Detroit’s cornerstone starter has been earning both his paycheck and his reputation as one of the most reliable pitchers in the American League.
The 26-year-old right-hander is 4-1 in his past five starts, giving up three or fewer earned runs in each outing and holding opponents scoreless in two of them. He has allowed just eight earned runs total in this span. He also has 42 strikeouts against just eight walks during this streak.
Verlander (12-5, 3.16 ERA) has gone at least seven innings in each of his past four starts, including a complete-game, 6-1 win over the Chicago White Sox.
Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs
Wells quietly has become a big reason why the Cubs boast a team ERA of 3.81, which is fifth in the majors.
He has gone 7-1 over his last eight starts, going at least six innings in all but one contest. He has been a model of consistency, yielding four runs or fewer each time out during this span.
In his last start, Wells (7-4, 2.84) shut out the Houston Astros over eight innings while picking up another win. He has notched two of Chicago’s eight wins in their past 10 games.
Slumping
Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay’s erstwhile reliable lefty – he has posted double-figure wins in each of the past four seasons – Kazmir (5-6, 6.22 ERA) has battled both injuries and inconsistency this season.
He is 1-3 with four no-decisions in his past eight starts, and has struggled to find the strike zone despite winning his last start against the New York Yankees.
Kazmir has allowed seven earned runs in three starts during this span, and yielded five earned runs in another, contributing to his hefty ERA.
Kenshin Kawakami, Atlanta Braves
Kawakami (5-8, 4.37 ERA) has been a source of concern for Atlanta’s bullpen of late. He's failed to reach the fifth inning in three of his past six starts.
The 34-year-old righty is 1-2 with three no-decisions during this span; he was tagged for six earned runs in four-plus innings in his last start, a loss to the Florida Marlins.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Monday, Aug. 3
San Francisco at Houston (8:05 p.m. EDT). Matt Cain (12-2, 2.12) will go for his 13th victory of the season as the Giants begin a three-game set in Houston.
STARS
Sunday
-Melky Cabrera, Yankees, hit for the cycle in New York's 8-5 win over the Chicago White Sox, finishing with four hits and four RBIs.
-Matt Kemp, Dodgers, homered and matched a career high with five RBIs in Los Angeles' 9-1 victory against Atlanta.
-Kendry Morales, Angels, hit two three-run homers and had a career-high six RBIs in Los Angeles' 13-4 victory at the Minnesota Twins.
-Victor Martinez, Red Sox, had five hits and four RBIs to help Boston beat the Baltimore Orioles 18-10 at Camden Yards.
-Mitch Maier, Royals, drove in three runs and threw out a runner at the plate in Kansas City's 4-1 win over Tampa Bay.
-Carl Pavano, Indians, tossed eight crisp innings to lead Cleveland to an 11-1 victory against the Detroit Tigers.
-Alex Rios, Blue Jays, hit a three-run double to help Toronto to a 7-2 win at the Oakland Athletics.
BASE 10
Melky Cabrera became the first Yankees player in 14 years to hit for the cycle, leading New York to an 8-5 victory over the Chicago White Sox on Sunday afternoon. Cabrera hit a three-run homer in the second to give the Yankees a 3-0 lead, doubled in the fourth, had an RBI single in the fifth, and completed it with a triple in the ninth. Cabrera's cycle was the 15th by a Yankees player and first since Tony Fernandez did it against Oakland on Sept. 3, 1995.
SIDELINED
The Texas Rangers placed second baseman Ian Kinsler on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left hamstring. Kinsler missed five straight starts and said before the game that the injury hadn't improved, but hadn't gotten worse either. Then, 10 minutes before the game's first pitch against Seattle, the team announced that Kinsler was headed to the DL retroactive to July 29.
SWINGS
Scott Feldman bounced back from his worst start of the season with one of his best. After knocked Feldman around for six runs and 10 hits in 2 1-3 innings earlier in the week, he improved to 10-4, allowing two runs and five hits with four strikeouts and two walks in a 4-2 win against Seattle.
SAD MEMORY
Sunday marked the 30th anniversary of Thurman Munson's fatal plane crash in Canton, Ohio, and Reggie Jackson still remembers the "chilling feeling'' that gripped him when he heard the news. The Yankees had a day off, and Jackson was in Connecticut when he learned about the crash. "I got a really eerie feeling because it said 'Yankee great,' 'Yankee superstar,' or something like that 'dies in a plane crash,''' said Jackson, now a special adviser.
STATS
The Red Sox outscored Baltimore 28-15 in completing their first three-game sweep on the road since June 2-4 in Detroit. Kevin Youkilis went 10 for 12 with three walks in the series and reached base 13 straight times (10 hits, three walks) before striking out in the eighth.
SPEAKING
"I'm honored to be on this side now. It's not the same when you're playing and you fall way back in the standings. Just coming over here to a team that is competing every year...'' Boston's Victor Martinez, who had five hits in the Red Sox's 18-10 victory against Baltimore. The Red Sox acquired Martinez from Cleveland on Friday.
Can Cain stay hot?
By Brobury Sports
The San Francisco Giants are nearly unbeatable when Matt Cain takes the hill. Will it continue tonight versus the Houston Astros?
San Fran is a -145 road favorite with their co-ace on the mound. Game-time is at 8:05 pm ET for the first in a three-game set. The Over/Under is 8 runs.
The 24 year-old Cain gets lost in the shuffle with Tim Lincecum (12-3, 2.18 ERA) also on the staff. But while Lincecum gets most of the national headlines, it’s Cain who has the slightly better numbers (12-2, 2.12 ERA).
Cain is also in the midst of a mind-numbing streak. He pitched nine-innings of shutout ball versus Pittsburgh last time out. He also has a miniscule .95 ERA in his last six starts and the Giants have won the last five.
Bettors should also be aware that the Giants are an incredible 14-2 in Cain’s last 16 overall starts and 6-1 in his last seven road starts.
San Francisco (58-47) is coming into this game on a high, having taken three of four at home from an excellent Philadelphia Phillies team. New acquisitions, Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko both played in their 7-3 Sunday win, with Sanchez batting second and Garko cleanup.
Those two players add a boost to the lineup and it’s needed as they’re just 21-31 on the road this year (3-7 in the second half) and 7-16 in their last 23 road games versus a left-handed starter.
Astros need to make their move
Opposing Cain tonight for Houston is Mike Hampton (6-8, 5.36 ERA). The oft-injured lefthander has already made more starts (18) than in any year since 2004.
The problem is he seems to be declining quickly with a 10.42 ERA in his last four starts. That’s come at an ill-advised time as the Astros have lost three of those games.
Houston (52-53) is struggling despite winning at St. Louis yesterday, 2-0. They are just 2-7 in their last nine games and sit 4.5 games behind St. Louis in the NL Central and four games behind the Chicago Cubs.
Note the Astros are just 28-25 at home this year and 3-9 in their last 12 games as a home underdog between +110 and +150 like tonight.