NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (68-62) at Florida (68-62)
Braves rookie Kenshin Kawakami (6-10, 4.08 ERA) makes what is likely his final start before being bumped to the bullpen as Atlanta travels to Land Shark Stadium to face the Marlins and ace Josh Johnson (13-3, 3.04).
Atlanta dropped two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend, including Sunday night’s 3-2 loss. The Braves are still on runs of 6-3 on the road, 4-2 against right-handed starters and 5-3 against the N.L. East, however they have lost four straight series openers and they’re 5-12 in their last 17 Monday games.
Florida ended a three-game losing streak with a 6-4 win Sunday over the Padres. The Marlins are riding positive streaks of 7-1 on Mondays, 7-1 in series openers, and a slew of positives with Johnson on the hill, including 36-16 overall, 19-7 at home, 23-6 against the N.L. East and 12-1 at home against teams with winning records.
The Marlins hold a slim 6-5 edge in the season series between these rivals, with the visitor winning seven of the 11 contests.
Kawakami, who will lose his spot in the rotation Tuesday when Atlanta activates Tim Hudson, gave up four runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings on Wednesday, losing 12-5 at home to the Padres. Prior to that outing, the right-hander had given up just four runs in 20 1/3 innings in his previous three starts, all Atlanta wins. Kawakami is 4-5 with a 4.54 ERA in 12 road starts this year and 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in two starts against Florida, losing 6-2 at home and 6-3 in South Beach.
In Wednesday’s home outing against the Mets, Johnson allowed three runs in six innings, beating the Mets 5-3 while improving to 7-1 with a 2.26 ERA in 13 home outings, 11 of which Florida has won. In his lone start against Atlanta this season he allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings but scored a 6-3 victory at home. The Marlins are 7-3 with Johnson on the hill against the Braves, with the right-hander going 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA in those 10 contests.
The under is 7-2 in Kawakami’s last nine starts (4-1 on the road), but as a team the Braves are on “over” runs of 8-4 on the road and 9-4 on the road against winning teams. Florida is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 7-1 with Johnson pitching, 13-3-2 when he pitches a series opener, 21-8-1 as a team overall and 15-3 at Land Shark Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (77-52) at Seattle (68-63)
It’s a battle of southpaws at Safeco Field, as the Angels’ send Joe Saunders (10-7, 5.27 ERA) to the mound to open a three-game set against the Mariners and Lucas French (4-3, 3.92).
The Angels had dropped seven of 10 before crushing the A’s 9-1 on Sunday behind the pitching of John Lackey, who allowed just one run on five hits over eight innings. Los Angeles has dropped four of its last five series openers, but otherwise it is on several positive runs, including 48-23 overall, 23-9 on the road, 25-9 against left-handed starters and 17-4 on the road against southpaws.
Seattle got one-hit by Royals ace Zack Greinke on Sunday, losing 3-0, falling for just the second time in its last seven games. The Mariners are riding positive runs of 6-2 at home, 4-1 against the A.L. West and 4-1 in French’s five starts since being traded to the team from Detroit. The Mariners are also 7-6 against the Angels this year, with five of the wins coming as an underdog.
Despite tailing Seattle in the season series this year, the Angels are still 41-20 in the last 61 clashes over the past three-plus years.
Saunders is 2-1 with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts, but he was solid in Wednesday’s 4-2 home win over the Tigers, giving up two runs on four hits in five innings in his first start after returning from a stint on the disabled list. Saunders has been brutal on the road recently, giving up 22 earned runs in his last 21 1/3 innings on the highway, and he’s 5-4 with a 6.12 ERA in 11 road starts.
The Halos have won seven straight games against Seattle with Saunders on the hill, with two of those wins coming this year. For his career, Saunders is 6-1 with a 3.40 ERA in nine starts against the Mariners, including a 1.61 ERA in his last four games versus Seattle and 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA in five starts at Safeco.
French is making his sixth start in a Mariners’ uniform and coming off Wednesday’s 5-3 home win over the A’s when he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Mariners’ lone loss with French on the mound was Aug. 15 when he allowed four runs (none earned) in six innings of a 5-2 loss to the Yankees. Tonight, he’s making his first start against Los Angeles.
With Saunders on the hill, L.A. is on several “over” runs, including 16-5 overall, 6-0 on the road, 6-0 in series openers and 9-1 when he faces a team with a winning record. Meanwhile as a team, the Angels have topped the total in 37 of 55 overall, 13 of 19 on the road, five straight on Mondays and 15 of 23 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Seattle has gone “over” the total in six of eight series openers, but it has stayed “under” the number in 17 of 22 against division rivals.
Finally, the over is 13-6 in the last 19 series clashes in Seattle, but the under is 4-1 in the last five Angels-Mariners battles overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
Gametimepicks.com
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have a big slate to sort through for Monday standards, including a pair of afternoon tilts that will come off the board at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. We’ll take a look at one of those contests – Tampa Bay at Detroit – before getting into the action that’ll go down under the lights.
**Rays at Tigers**
--Placido Palanco belted a three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth inning Sunday afternoon to propel Detroit (69-60, +223) to a 4-3 comeback win over Tampa Bay as a minus-160 home favorite. Justin Verlander worked eight innings to pick up his 15th win of the year, while Fernando Rodney pitched a scoreless ninth to collect his 29th save.
--With Boston trouncing Toronto by a 7-0 count Sunday, Tampa Bay (70-59, -165) fell 5 ½ games behind the Red Sox in the American League wild-card chase. Meanwhile, the Tigers lead the AL Central by 4 ½ games over the Twins and six over the slumping White Sox.
--Jim Leyland’s team is now 42-21 at home, while the Rays are mediocre 28-38 on the road.
--Tampa Bay RHP James Shields (8-10. 3.81 ERA) will get the call Monday afternoon. The right-hander has enjoyed plenty of success in four career starts against the Tigers, compiling a 2-0 record and 2.31 ERA. He is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA in a pair of outings at Comerica Park. He is 4-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 12 road starts in 2009 and 4-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 11 afternoon assignments.
--Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera is 4-for-10 (.400) against Shields with a pair of doubles and one homer. Palanco is 5-for-11 (.455) off the righty and also has two doubles and one big fly.
--Jarrod Washburn (9-7, 3.23) will get the nod for the Tigers. The southpaw owns a 12-3 record and 2.59 lifetime ERA against Tampa Bay. Washburn is 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA in eight starts in the afternoon during 2009.
--The Rays are 24-24 against lefties this year.
--Joe Maddon’s club has seen the ‘under’ hit in four consecutive games. The ‘under’ is 69-55 overall for the Rays, 38-27 in their road games.
--Detroit has seen five straight ‘unders.’ The ‘under’ is 74-51 overall for the Tigers, 34-27 in their home outings.
--Most betting shops are listing this game as a pick ‘em (minus-110 either way) with a total of 8 ½.
**Diamondbacks at Dodgers**
--Most spots have installed Los Angeles (77-53, +1322) as a minus-185 ‘chalk’ with a total of eight. Bettors can dodge the expensive straight price and back the Dodgers on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) at a minus-105 price.
--Joe Torre’s club saw the Rockies pull to within two games of its NL-West lead midway through this past week. However, the Dodgers have won four of their last five games since then to pad their division lead to six games ahead of both Colorado and San Francisco.
--Randy Wolf (9-6, 3.25) has been blowing hitters away recently, winning four consecutive decisions. Wolf has a 2-2 record and 3.80 ERA in 12 home starts this year. For his career, the veteran lefty is 8-3 with a 4.47 career ERA against Arizona. He has beaten the D-backs twice already this year.
--With nothing to play for, Arizona (59-72, -1545) has nonetheless caught fire recently. The Diamondbacks swept the Astros over the weekend in Phoenix, pounding Houston by a combined score of 38-10 while delivering broom treatment over a four-day stretch of games. ‘Zona captured a 4-3 win Sunday as a minus-130 ‘chalk’ at most spots, as Dan Haren won his 13th game and Justin Upton popped his 22nd homer.
--Doug Davis (7-11, 3.75) will toe the rubber for the D-backs. The left-hander is 3-5 with a 4.36 ERA in 13 road starts this season. Davis is 5-4 with a 3.41 career ERA against the Dodgers.
--Arizona has been awful against lefties this year with a 13-25 record. However, the D-backs did prevail against Houston LHP Wandy Rodriguez on Sunday.
--The Dodgers are 23-13 versus southpaws.
--L.A. is 40-25 at home, while the D-backs are 28-37 on the road.
--The ‘under’ is on a 12-3-1 run for L.A. in its last 16 games. The ‘under’ is 65-60 overall for the Dodgers, 32-29 in their home games.
--The ‘under’ has been a money maker when the D-backs are on the road, cashing tickets at a 35-26 clip.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--You often hear bettors talk about miracle wins and unfathomable losses. Well, on Saturday, I had a push from the heavens. Cliff Lee had been absolutely untouchable since coming to the Phillies, reminding gamblers of how C.C. Sabathia came over to the NL and was dominant for Milwaukee in August and September of last season. Therefore, I thought the best play on the board Saturday was Philadelphia on the run line for a plus-115 return. Of course, the Braves smacked Lee around and had a 9-1 lead in the eighth inning. In other words, my play was history – done, finished, a given loser, right? Wrong! All veteran handicappers have had this rule either hook them up or crush their pockets. The rule states that any game called due to weather before completing nine innings makes bets on totals and run lines declared as “no plays.” Hey, I’ll take it.
--With San Francisco’s 9-5 win over Colorado on Sunday, the Giants pulled into a tie for the wild-card lead with the Rockies.
--Atlanta RHP Tim Hudson was scheduled to make his 2009 season debut tonight, but he has been pushed back a day and will throw on Tuesday.
vegasinsider.com.
Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Randy Wolf (9-6, 3.25 ERA), Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers starting rotation was supposed to be the one thing that could prevent the club from making the playoffs for a consecutive year.
But thanks to consistent performers like this lefty, Los Angeles’ postseason chances are looking good.
The Wolfman, who’s been priced north of -200 just once this year, is 4-0 with a nifty 2.72 ERA this month and the Dodgers are 5-0 in his last five appearances.
The 33-year-old veteran has been the definition of consistent in 2009. He’s delivered quality starts in 11 of his last 12 trips to the bump.
Slumping
Brett Cecil (5-3, 4.96), Toronto Blue Jays
Cecil is one of many Jays whose hot play flew south too early for Toronto backers. The young left hasn’t last longer than 4 1-3 innings in any of his past three starts.
The Rays were the latest team to prematurely end Cecil’s day. Tampa Bay scored six runs (five earned) before Jays manager Cito Gaston relieved Cecil in the fourth inning.
“Up in the strike zone, he stayed most of the time,” Gaston said, while doing his best Yoda impersonation. “When he’s down he pitches pretty good, his fastball sinks and runs a little bit and his changeup is good down. It looks like he’s getting his body out in front of his arm and he’s dragging his arm through.”
Whatever’s wrong with the kid, it doesn’t appear to be a quick fix. Cecil is 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA in August.
Nick Blackburn (8-9, 4.34), Minnesota Twins
If you faded the Twins each time this 27-year-old right took the ball over the last five weeks, your baseball bankroll should be in good shape.
Minnesota has come out on the losing end in seven of Blackburn’s last eight starts. He’s been taken out of the park six times in his last 15 innings and he has just one quality start in his last nine outings.
Returning
Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves
Hudson is set to make his 2009 Major League debut on Monday. The veteran hurler missed the last 13 months after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June of 2008.
He’ll take Kenshin Kawakami’s spot in the rotation.
“It’s time for me to go out there and earn my paycheck,” Hudson told MLB.com.
The former Oakland Athletic has a $12 million option for next season, and how he pitches in the final month of the season will likely determine whether the Braves bring him back in 2010.
The signs have been positive in Hudson’s last few rehab starts. He was scheduled to make his minor league game last Friday, but was called to join the big club early.
From the sounds of things, it seems the Braves are confident their former ace will be able get his pitch count up to 100 Monday night.
“I feel ready,” Hudson told the Atlanta Journal Constitution. “This is something I’ve been looking forward to for a long time, and put a lot of long hours of hard work in just anticipating this start. I’m excited about it.”
Hudson was 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six rehab appearances.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Monday, August 31
Atlanta at Florida (7:10 p.m. EDT). Tim Hudson is scheduled to make his first start for the Braves since undergoing elbow ligament replacement surgery last summer. The right-hander's most recent major league outing was in Florida on July 23, 2008.
STARS
-Edgar Renteria, Giants, hit a go-ahead grand slam in the seventh inning and San Francisco pulled even in the NL wild-card race with Colorado, beating the Rockies 9-5.
-Zack Greinke, Royals, pitched a one-hitter, allowing only a second-inning single by Kenji Johjima, and Kansas City beat Seattle 3-0.
-Adam Wainwright, Cardinals, earned his major league-leading 16th victory on his 28th birthday as St. Louis completed a three-game sweep of Washington with a 2-1 win.
-Nelson Figueroa, Mets, struck out a career-high 10 and had an RBI single to lead New York to a 4-1 win over the Chicago Cubs.
-Matt Kemp, Dodgers, homered early before hitting a sacrifice fly in the 12th inning that lifted Los Angeles over Cincinnati 3-2.
-Mark Teixeira, Yankees, homered and drove in four runs to help New York finish off a three-game sweep of the struggling Chicago White Sox with an 8-3 victory.
-Placido Polanco, Tigers, hit a three-run homer with two outs in the eighth inning, lifting Detroit to a 4-3 win over Tampa Bay.
-John Lackey, Angels, pitched eight innings of five-hit ball for his 100th victory and Los Angeles beat Oakland 9-1.
STILL SIDELINED
Jake Peavy is having a hard time getting healthy. Still waiting to make his first start for the Chicago White Sox, Peavy left his minor league rehab outing after only 3 1-3 innings and 68 pitches Saturday night because he felt tightness in his pitching elbow. Chicago manager Ozzie Guillen said Peavy will join the White Sox by Monday in Minnesota, where he is expected to get X-rays and be evaluated by the club's medical staff.
OUCH
Instead of celebrating a three-game sweep, the Arizona Diamondbacks tended to closer Chad Qualls, who dislocated his left kneecap on a freak game-ending play. Qualls crumpled to the dirt after deflecting a liner by Jason Michaels to shortstop Stephen Drew, who fired to first base for the final out. Qualls immediately motioned to the dugout for help, and trainers and teammates rushed to the mound. After several moments, trainers helped the 6-foot-5, 220-pound Qualls to his feet and off the field.
SHUTDOWN
Zach Greinke held Seattle to one hit in a 3-0 win by the Royals. It was the 16th time in franchise history that the Mariners had been one-hit and the first since April 8, 2006 by Oakland. It was the 10th individual one-hitter, the last one coming by the Yankees' Ted Lilly on April 27, 2002.
DRIVING IN RUNS
Los Angeles Angels slugger Kendry Morales hit his 30th homer off reliever Jay Marshall in the Angels' five-run eighth inning that gave the Cuban first baseman 33 RBIs in August, breaking the club record for RBIs in a month. Bobby Bonds drove in 31 runs in August 1977, but Morales leads the AL with 45 RBIs since the All-Star break.
SCRATCHED
Boston Red Sox right-hander Tim Wakefield expects to get a cortisone shot Monday after his next scheduled start was scratched because his balky back acted up again. The 43-year-old knuckleballer spent 5 1/2 weeks on the disabled list with back problems after the All-Star break. He returned Wednesday and pitched seven innings, allowing one run and six hits in Boston's 3-2 win over the Chicago White Sox.
SPEAKING
"Give up five or six ground balls and a lot of them turn into hits, there's nothing you can say. Those guys are a speed-oriented team. It was like someone sacrificed a chicken for those hits. I made good pitches.'' - Rangers pitcher C.J. Wilson after the Twins scored three runs using a walk, three singles, a squeeze bunt and an error to rally for a 5-3 victory Sunday.
Sagging Dodgers
By SportsPic
The 'Boys-In-Blue' just 14-14 (-$499) in August but still with a comfortable lead atop the National League West are in a great spot to end the month above .500. Dodgers have bagged the Snakes in nine of the last ten meetings at Dodger Stadium and have one of their most consistent starters this month going in the opener, Randy Wolf (9-6, 3.31). The southpaw 4-1 (5-1 TSR) in August eating up 43 innings while allowing just 32 hits, 14 runs heads to the bump with an impressive 3.4 SWR, 0.98 WHIP, 20.17 BOR/9 over the span. Consider laying the lumber (-$1.70) knowing Dodgers are 10-3 (+$607) at home with their lefty, Snakes are a lowly 2-11 (-$955) in their last thirteen road games scoring only 3.5 runs/game. Besides, backing home favorites between -$1.50 and -$1.80 with a starter such as Wolf who gets men out (Batter-Out-Ratio >15) have won at a 77.1% clip (84-25) stuffing +$4284 into betting accounts. Also, Wolf is already 2-0 vs D'Backs this season and has seen his teams (LA, SD, PHI) win ten of his last twelve vs Arizona.