Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
David Price (14-5, 2.82 ERA), Tampa Bay Rays
David Price is really good. No big surprise there but it seems like the long lefty is making adjustments with almost every start. While he still is a little too dependent on his fastball, he is working on his control.
His 55 walks rank among the top 10 for American League starting pitchers but Price has walked just four batters in his last two starts and he’s had two or less in five of his last eight appearances. The under is also 5-2-1 in his last eight trips to the bump.
Slumping
Ervin Santana (10-8, 4.11 ERA), Los Angeles Angels
Things aren’t going so well these days for the Angels and Santana is one of many players on the club underachieving at the moment. The Halos are 2-4 in his last six starts and the 27-year-old right owns a 12.11 ERA and a 2.69 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over his last two outings.
"When you don't have a first-pitch strike, you have big troubles," Santana told the Los Angeles Times after the Orioles knocked him around for nine runs in his last start. "I'm just going to leave this in this ballpark and get to the next outing."
Returning
Carlos Zambrano (3-6, 5.61 ERA), Chicago Cubs
What a long strange trip it’s been for Big Z this season. Once considered the Cubs unquestioned staff ace, Zambrano is now thought of as one of the most overpaid and underachieving players in the big leagues.
He’s made three relief appearances since returning from a team suspension following his dugout blowup, but this will be his first start since that forgettable day in July when Zambrano and team captain Derrek Lee almost came started throwing hay-makers at each other.
Zambrano has issued four walks in 3 2/3 innings of work since rejoining the Cubs but manager Lou Piniella seemed encouraged by his big righty’s added zip on his fastball.
Reports suggest that the Cubs will not let Zambrano pitch more than 75 or 80 pitches in his Monday start.
Monday MLB Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Monday baseball card involves only nine games, with seven new series starting up. The Cardinals and Reds meet for NL Central supremacy in Cincinnati, while the Braves hit the road with a rookie pitcher in Houston against the Astros. We'll start in the Motor City with a pair of struggling teams hooking up meeting for the second time in three weeks.
Rays at Tigers - 7:05 PM EST
Despite a four-game skid, Tampa Bay is still leading the AL Wild Card race. On the flip side, Detroit has dropped 13 of 16 games to not only fall out of the playoff race, but also fall below .500. The Tigers look to avenge a four-game sweep at Tropicana Field, as Detroit was no-hit in the series opener by Matt Garza.
Things don't get easier for the Tigers as they face Tampa Bay ace David Price (14-5, 2.82 ERA), who is the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award. Price is coming off a no-decision in his last outing, scattering five hits and one earned run in seven innings as the Rays fell to the Twins, 2-1. Tampa Bay owns a perfect 6-0 record this season when Price starts off a loss in his last start. The road has not been friendly to the former Vanderbilt star, as the Rays are 1-3 in his previous four away outings. Price beat the Tigers on July 29 by a 4-2 count, allowing seven hits and two earned runs while striking out nine in 6.1 innings.
Armando Galarraga (3-4, 4.32 ERA) gets the ball for the Tigers, looking for his first win in over a month. The Detroit right-hander walked five and gave up two homers in a 4-1 home loss to Chicago last Wednesday, his third straight home defeat. The near-perfect game against the Indians in early June was definitely an aberration for Galarraga, who has put together only three quality starts in his previous 10 outings. Galarraga hasn't faced the Rays since last season, as Detroit outslugged Tampa Bay, 8-6. The righty didn't factor in the decision as he allowed six earned runs in just 2.1 innings.
The Tigers and Rays split a four-game set at Comerica Park last August, as three of the four games finished 'under' the total. Detroit totaled only eight runs in the four losses at Tampa Bay in late July, while the 'under' cashed three times.
Cardinals at Reds - 7:10 PM EST
The most important series over the next few days involves the top two teams in the NL Central. Cincinnati cleaned up against Pittsburgh and Chicago over the last week, winning five of six games to take sole possession of first place in the division. St. Louis continues its road swing, as the Redbirds look to win only their second away series since the end of June.
It's youth against experience on the mound in Cincinnati as rookie Mike Leake faces former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter. Leake (7-3, 3.86 ERA) has tapered off since a strong start, as the former Arizona State standout has allowed 16 earned runs in his previous four outings (1-3). His last three starts haven't exactly been against the cream of the crop, facing the Astros, Pirates, and Nationals. The one thing you can count when Leake starts is a high-scoring affair, as the 'over' has cashed in six of his last seven trips to the mound. In his only start against the Cardinals, Leake won as a $1.30 home underdog on May 15, limiting the Redbirds to four hits and two runs in six innings of a 4-2 victory.
Carpenter (12-3, 2.91 ERA) has bounced back nicely following a pair of subpar starts against the Brewers and Rockies. In those two outings, the St. Louis allowed 11 earned runs in nine innings of work, both Cardinals' losses. Since then, the Redbirds are 5-0 in Carpenter's last five outings, giving up just seven earned runs in this stretch. Out of St. Louis' six losses with Carpenter on the mound this season, three have come as a road favorite, his role in Monday's contest. The Reds have had little success against Carpenter this season, as he owns a 3-0 mark versus Cincinnati, including an Opening Day victory at the Great American Ballpark.
The Cardinals have a slight 7-5 edge on the Reds in their 12 meetings this season, with the clubs splitting six games in Cincinnati. The 'over' has been the play recently for St. Louis, cashing in eight straight games.
Braves at Astros - 8:10 PM EST
Houston stumbled at the end of its road trip after taking the first two games in St. Louis. The Astros lost the finale at Busch Stadium before dropping all three games at Milwaukee. Houston has played well at home with five straight wins at Minute Maid Park, hosting the NL East-leading Braves for the first of three.
Atlanta sends out left-hander Mike Minor for his ML debut, getting called up from Triple-A Gwinnett. Minor's numbers were solid at Gwinnett, owning a 4-1 mark with an ERA of 1.99 and WHIP of 0.88. Minor was a teammate of David Price at Vanderbilt, while actually putting up better numbers this season at Triple-A than Double-A.
Bud Norris (4-7, 5.65 ERA) is actually the more experienced pitcher in this matchup, as the 25-year old is coming off consecutive underdog wins over the Cubs and Cardinals. The Houston right-hander is extremely hit-or-miss, putting together two scoreless outings and five starts allowing at least four runs since late June. In this stretch, the 'over' has cashed six of seven times, including five in a row.
Atlanta swept Houston at Turner Field in early May, limiting the Astros to four runs in the entire series. The 'under' is 7-2 in Atlanta's last nine games, after hitting the 'under' in Sunday's win over San Francisco. Houston is 5-2 the previous seven contests as a home underdog, while the Astros are just 2-5 the last seven home openers.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 8/9
By Dan Bebe
National League
Cardinals (-140) @ Reds with a total of 7.5
There's likely some value with the Reds, just based on the line alone, but at the same time, both teams have some negative situational notes coming into this affair. The Cardinals are coming off a game postponed by about a day's worth of rain in Florida, so they're traveling from the southeastern-most tip of the US all the way up to Cincinnati. At the same time, does the postponement feel more like a day off or like a day wasted? Cincinnati returns home off dominating the Cubbies, but coming home always produces that game that seems like the team is taking a nap. I know the travel from Chicago to Cincinnati isn't too severe, but settling back in at home, we see far too often a team "wake up" after about 6-7 innings of floating.
Braves (-119) @ Astros with a total of 8.5
Obviously, the first question is, "who the heck is Mike Minor?" Well, I'm glad you asked. Minor is the Braves 1st-round draft pick in the 2009 draft, and has just catapulted his way through their Minor League system, pitching briefly for the Braves' A-ball club after getting signed in 2009 (and dominating) before starting this season in AA, moving to Triple-A after a so-so half-season in Mississippi, and just crushing Triple-A. He wasn't there long, but with Gwinnett, Minor went 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA in 6 starts. He fanned 37 in 33.1 innings, and perhaps the best stat, only allowed a single home run. So, he's rolling, confident, and the Braves need a good start if they're going to win any damn road games. Bud Norris just keeps finding ways to give up 4 runs, and his 0-1, 13.50 mark against the Braves in brief work isn't exactly a confidence-booster. I suppose he can't be much worse.
D'backs @ Brewers (-130) with a total of 9
Lamest...rematch...ever. These two faced off back on May 9, and incredibly, both pitched well. Kennedy gave up 2 runs over 7 innings, and Narveson surrendered just 1 run in 5.2 frames of a game the Brewers went on to win 6-1. Another tip of the cap to the D'backs pen for how that one turned out. Coming into this one, though, Kennedy appears to be suffering from some severe arm fatigue, and while the D'backs are hitting better now than the last time they saw Narveson, I don't think I can back them on the road against anyone other than the Mets. Milwaukee is hitting well right now, too, and maybe some of that is finally getting past the All Star Break without losing a key piece. Narveson isn't exactly world-beating, but the Brewers have won 3 of his last 4 starts, which means he's at least keeping them in the game.
Cubs @ Giants (-165) with a total of 8
This series should be a formality for the Giants, but baseball is never that simple. Carlos Zambrano is getting what I can only imagine is his last chance to pitch without destroying a water cooler (or teammate, rosin bag, mound, bat, locker, etc.), and I also imagine that getting said chance against the jet-lagged Giants in a pitcher's park is probably the best way to do it. San Francisco had a long, long flight back from Atlanta, losing 3 of 4 in the land of humidity. Zambrano is also a solid 5-1 with a 2.76 lifetime ERA against the Giants, and over the last 5 years has held Giants regulars like Edgar Renteria (.200), Freddy Sanchez (.235), and Juan Uribe (.176) to very low averages. He might just pull something out of his rectum. Tough chance to take, especially with the solid rookie Madison Bumgarner on the other side, who might be coming off a poor start, but that was also at Coors Field. I suppose if you're backing the Cubs, you're hoping that Zambrano cares enough about this one to get his teammates a little interested, and that the Giants are half asleep for game one of the series.
American League
Red Sox @ Yankees with a total of N/A
Highly unlikely we have a play on this one, since the Yankees are midway through adjusting the rotation to deal with A.J. Burnett's missed start, yesterday. I might have some more thoughts on this tomorrow morning, but for now, let's move on.
White Sox (-150) @ Orioles with a total of 9
No surprise here, Nick Markakis is the one Oriole with good career numbers against the opposing starter. Edwin Jackson has a career 4.86 ERA against the O's, but his 4-1 record suggests that either he got supremely lucky, or one or two bad starts might have inflated the number. We can, of course, go back and dig it up, but with the expensive line, this game is nearly off my radar just from that alone. On top of that, Jackson had himself an impressive return to the AL, but an emotional one, pitching against his old team in Detroit, and amping up his stuff just a tad. That means a letdown is coming, and I don't think I can take that chance it's coming here. Matusz, meanwhile, finally got a home win with 6 innings of 1-run ball, but his inconsistency makes him a very dangerous play, too.
Rays (-155) @ Tigers with a total of 8.5
Again, I'm not initially tempted to take such a high-priced road favorite, though I will admit that this one is a little more intriguing than the other ones. Price is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA against the Tigers, including a decent 6.1 inning, 2-run win over them, in Tampa, a couple weeks back. Galarraga hasn't faced the Rays this year, but he's 1-0 with a 6.35 ERA against them in his career. Here's my issue with the Rays in this one. First, they didn't play well, at all, in Toronto. They lost, potentially, two pitchers to sore shoulders (Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann), and haven't really been hitting, aside from that insane middle game of the Toronto series, and they swept the Tigers in Tampa, so you know Detroit is going to come to play in this one, if not the entire series. Too many things working against Tampa to back them, even with Price on the hill, and Galarraga just isn't very good, so backing him is darn tough, too.
Royals @ Angels (-210) with a total of 9
Normally, I'd ignore a game of this line, but there are a few key notes that should keep you off the Angels, and strongly consider a play on the Royals. First, the Angels come home off a brutal road trip through Baltimore and Detroit, so they're going to be a little sleepy. Second, the Royals head South from Seattle, so the flight length is decent, but no time change means they're not going to be lagged. Third, Sean O'Sullivan, the Royals' starter, is a former Angel, traded about a month back in the Alberto Callaspo deal. He's going to be hyper-motivated to do battle with his old team. O'Sullivan hasn't really been good, though making 2 of your 4 starts against the Yanks doesn't help, and with the Angels potentially sleepy, this is a great spot for him to go 6 innings of quality ball. Santana, who can be pretty streaky, is actually set to make his 3rd start against the Royals this year. He beat them with a masterful performance on the road, then gave up 4 runs in 8.1 frames of a tough 4-2 loss in Anaheim.
Athletics @ Mariners (-115) with a total of 7.5
As long as Mazzaro isn't facing the Rangers, this kid has been excellent. It's funny, really. He's 6-3 with a 3.86 ERA this year with the A's, but in his two starts against the Rangers, he's gone just 8.1 innings and allowed 11 runs. Take those starts out of the equation, and his numbers drop dramatically. He's only allowed 30 earned runs all year, so just peel a third of his ERA off, and that's how he's handling the rest of the League. Doug Fister's numbers, on the other side, look better than they are. He's got a 3.98 ERA, and he's 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA against the A's, but since his DL stint, he just hasn't been the same. This one could very well be a pitchers' duel, since it's not like the A's are a violent offensive ballclub, but I do think that Fister should probably be a tiny dog for an accurate line.
Tips and Trends
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Cardinals (-140, O/U 7.5): St. Louis is looking up at Cincinnati in the National League Central division. The Cardinals are 61-49 SU this season, 2 games behind the Reds. St. Louis is -5.52 and -7.92 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. St. Louis has been playing quite well offensively of late, something they will need to keep up as they face their nemesis on the road this series. The Cardinals are 8-3 in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record. St. Louis is 46-18 in their last 64 games during game 1 of a series. The Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games against the National League Central. St. Louis is 8-20 in their last 28 road games against a right-handed starter.
Cardinals are 16-5 last 21 Monday games overall.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games against the National League Central.
Key Injuries - CF Colby Rasmus (rest) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Reds: Cincinnati is playing like playoff veterans, as they try to reach the postseason for the first time in quite a while. The Reds have won 4 straight and 8 of their past 10 games overall. Cincinnati is 64-48 SU this year, including 33-23 SU at home. The Reds are +14.34 and +16.09 units both SU and on the RL this season. Pitcher Mike Leake will make the home start tonight, as he is 7-3 with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.40 this season. The Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 games overall. Cincinnati is 5-1 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 Monday games. The Reds are 5-1 in Leake's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. Cincinnati is 1-4 in Leake's last 5 starts against the National League Central.
Reds are 10-3 last 13 games during game 1 of a series.
Under is 9-3 last 12 games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - 2B Brandon Phillips (foot) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 2
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
White Sox (-150, O/U 9): Chicago is 63-38 SU this season, the best record in the American League Central division this year. Chicago has been one of the most consistent teams in baseball this season, thanks to an impressive pitching staff. The White Sox are +13.09 and +7.88 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Pitcher Edwin Jackson will make the road start for his new team today, as he is 1-0 with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 1.43 with the White Sox this year. The White Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 Monday games. Chicago is 22-5 in their last 27 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter. Chicago is 4-1 in their last 5 games during game 4 of a series. The White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games against the American League East.
White Sox are 11-3 last 14 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400%.
Under is 6-0 last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Key Injuries - 2B Gordon Beckham (groin) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Orioles: Baltimore is playing their best baseball of the season, which just happens to coincide with their new manager. The Orioles have won 5 of their last 6 games, and appear to be relishing the role of spoiler down the stretch of the season. Baltimore is 37-74 SU this season, including 23-34 SU at home. The Orioles are -20.27 and -20.58 units both SU and on the RL this year. Pitcher Brian Matusz will take the mound tonight, as he is 4-11 with an ERA of 5.26 and a WHIP of 1.50 this season. The Orioles are 4-9 in their last 13 home games against a right-handed starter. Baltimore is 20-47 in their last 67 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Orioles are 5-12 in their last 17 games during game 4 of a series. Baltimore is 5-13 in their last 18 games against the American League Central. The Orioles are 4-1 in Matusz's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. Baltimore is 3-7 in Matusz's last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Orioles are 3-9 in Matusz's last 12 starts against a team with a winning record.
Orioles are 5-1 last 6 home games.
Under is 4-0 last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - C Matt Wieters (rest) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
Royals at Angels – The Angels are 6-0 since September 28, 2009 when Ervin Santana starts at home after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $640. The Angels are 4-0 since May 07, 2010 after a 5+ run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $525.
Braves at Astros – The Braves are 6-0 since May 28, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $600. The Astros are 8-0 since June 02, 2010 at home after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $915. The Astros are 0-8 since April 09, 2010 as a home dog after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Astros are 4-0 since September 06, 2009 when Bud Norris starts after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $700.
Diamondbacks at Brewers – The Diamondbacks are 0-12 since May 02, 2010 as a road dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 since April 18, 2010 when Ian Kennedy starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $640 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-5 since May 12, 2010 at home when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $615 when playing against.
Cubs at Giants – The Cubs are 0-6 since July 28, 2010 after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $635 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-6 since August 25, 2009 when Carlos Zambrano starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $770 when playing against. The Giants are 7-0 since April 30, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $700.
Athletics at Mariners – The Athletics are 6-0 since June 25, 2010 when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $600. The Mariners are 9-0 since April 16, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings for a net profit of $900. The Mariners are 0-5 since August 27, 2009 when Doug Fister starts when he is off a start in which their team scored first and lost for a net profit of $595 when playing against.
White Sox at Orioles – The White Sox are 5-0 since May 01, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $645.
Cardinals at Reds – The Cardinals are 6-0 since April 21, 2010 after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a dog for a net profit of $605.
Rays at Tigers – The Rays are 9-0 since June 28, 2009 when David Price starts after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $900. The Rays are 9-0 since June 28, 2009 when David Price starts as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $900. The Tigers are 0-5 since April 12, 2010 after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $595 when playing against.
Red Sox at Yankees – The Yankees are 7-0 since May 31, 2010 after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700. The Yankees are 6-0 since June 03, 2010 after a 5+ run win and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $600. The Yankees are 6-0 since May 02, 2010 when Philip Hughes starts when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $600