Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Cole Hamels (11-10, 3.01 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies
This former World Series MVP is peaking at just the right time for the Phillies. Hamels is 4-0 in his last four starts and he struck out 13 in 6 2/3 innings his last time out on the bump.
"He's locked in right now. It's fun to see," Phillies closer Brad Lidge told the Associated Press. "He has complete command and confidence with all his pitches."
Oddsmakers are pricing Hamels pretty high these days, so a look at the under might be the better option. The Phils have played below the total in seven of the southpaw’s last eight appearances.
Jered Weaver (12-11, 2.91 ERA), Los Angeles Angels
Weaver entered the season as a questionable No. 1 but he’s proven he’s a bona fide ace. The slumping Halos don’t always cash in when he takes the hill. The team is just 5-5 in his last 10 starts even though he allowed two runs or less in seven of those games.
A play on the total seems like another good option here. The under is 14-0-2 in Weaver’s last 16 starts.
Slumping
Gavin Floyd (10-13, 4.01 ERA), Chicago White Sox
Everything smells bad in the south side of Chicago these days and Gavin Floyd is no different. The White Sox are 2-5 in Floyd's last seven starts. The big righty has given up 22 hits and 11 earned runs in his last 11 1/3 innings pitched.
MLB Roundup For Monday
By Dan Bebe
National League
Cardinals (-144) @ Marlins with a total of 8
I generally feel pretty strongly that betting inflated road favorites is a losing long term proposition, but at the same time, grabbing one every so often in the short term isn't completely nuts. Florida is slumping, big time, and the Cards played a solid series with the Padres. Carpenter is 3-1 against the Fish with an ERA in the 1's, and Volstad is a perma-fade for me. I'm considering St Louis, if nothing else comes my way.
Braves @ Phillies (-164) with a total of 8
Hamels and the Phils have been way too hot to fade. Jurrjens has been struggling a bit in his last couple starts. However, he does have solid career numbers against Philadelphia, so I wonder if maybe he comes through with a better start than people expect. I'd go Phillies or Under...or likely, nothing.
Astros @ Nationals (-138) with a total of 8
Livan went through a month of poor starts, but he bounced back his last time out with 8 shutout innings against the Braves. Norris has been rock solid in his last few starts, as well, and the Astros just keep winning late in the year. If Livan was still struggling, I'd put my house on Houston, but with Hernandez getting things back on track, that makes this game much tougher to bet. I'd consider the road dog, and I'd consider the Under.
Reds (-119) @ Brewers with a total of 9
Someone might want to tell the Reds that they still have to win a couple more games before the NL Central is completely locked up. This might be a nice series to get those wins. I have to admit, I'm a little surprised at how cheap the Reds are, but I happen to believe there are actually more reasons to back Cincinnati than Milwaukee. The Brewers are hitting pretty well, and Bailey doesn't have particularly strong numbers against them, but Milwaukee comes home off a 6-game road trip that took them to San Francisco, and we know how that first game home can go.
American League
Royals @ Tigers (-124) with a total of 7.5
This line is higher than I would have expected, though I suppose the general losing attitude of the Royals makes it somewhat believable. Here's my concern with both sides. Greinke doesn't seem fully focused, and Porcello was scratched from his last start because of lingering issues with his pitching index finger. Dangerous spot to play anything other than the Over.
Rays @ Yankees (-125) with a total of 9
This is a Rematch from a meeting down in Tampa, where both pitchers got shellacked in a game the Yankees won 8-7. The total moved up a half-tick, so that's pretty standard, and the line shifted by about 45 cents, so that's pretty normal, too. The Rays didn't look good against the Angels between these series with New York, and the Yankees do tend to beat up on fools in the Bronx. I prefer the home team, despite Nova's implosion last time he saw Tampa.
Orioles @ Red Sox (-154) with a total of 9
There is tremendous value with the Orioles here, and if it wasn't immediately evident in how the two teams are playing, the rather low line should be a second indicator. Matusz pitches above himself against the best in the League, and Daisuke has been scuffling, to say the least. At least consider the Orioles before doing anything else with this one.
Indians @ Twins (-215) with a total of 8.5
The Twins appear to be suffering through a slight letdown off that big series sweep against the White Sox. Be careful.
White Sox @ Athletics (-149) with a total of 7
This is a tough travel game for Chicago, playing in the late ESPN contest last night, and since they're virtually eliminated from the Playoffs, you have to believe the energy isn't there. That said, Floyd has been outstanding against the A's (3-0, 1.32), and Gonzalez has been a turd against the White Sox (0-3, 8.82). I'd look at the dog just because no one else is going to give them the time of day off being "eliminated"...
Rangers @ Angels (-155) with a total of 7.5
Jered Weaver usually holds his own against Texas when he faces them in Anaheim. It's going to be a decent series, and this big line should give you an indicator that oddsmakers still expect the Angels to give it their best. I think this line is fair, though that might make me seem nuts.
Tips and Trends
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
RAYS: Tampa Bay has gone 8-6 SU this year against the Yankees, with six of those wins coming as the listed underdog. The Rays have been alternating wins and losses of late, and stand 89-59 SU on the year. Tampa has played exceptionally well on the road this season, going 43-30 SU. Tampa is +7.78 and -1.96 units both SU and on the RL overall this year. Pitcher Matt Garza will make the road start tonight, as he looks to get back into his typical fine form. Garza is 14-8 SU on the season, with an ERA of 3.88 and a WHIP of 1.24 this season. The Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 Monday games overall. The Rays are 23-9 in their last 32 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Tampa is 1-4 in their last 5 road games against a right-handed starter. The Rays are 13-3 in Garza's last 16 starts with 5 days of rest. The Rays are 2-5 in Garza's last 7 starts against the American League East. Tampa is 2-9 in Garza's last 11 road starts against a team with a winning record.
Rays are 13-6 last 19 games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-2-1 last 11 games against the American League East.
Key injuries - RF Gabe Kapler (ankle) is out.
Projected Score: 5 (SIDE of the Day)
YANKEES: (-125, O/U 9) New York has the best record in baseball at 90-59 SU this season. The bad news is the simple fact that they play in the American League East. New York is being pushed by their opponent today, the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are only 0.5 games behind for the AL East division lead. The Yankees have been on the road for their past 9 games, so they are no doubt excited to be back at home. The Yankees are +1.75 and +18.22 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Righty Ivan Nova will take the mound tonight, as the Yankees gone 4-1 SU in games started by him this year. The Yankees are 90-35 in their last 125 home games overall. The Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 games against a right-handed starter. New York is 42-18 in their last 60 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Yankees are 4-11 in their last 15 during game 1 of a series. New York is 1-6 in their last 7 Monday games. The Yankees are 4-0 in Nova's last 4 starts.
Yankees are 41-17 last 58 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 6-2 last 8 games against the American League East.
Key injuries - 3B Alex Rodriguez (rest) is probable.
Projected Score: 4
Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
White Sox at Athletics – The White Sox are 6-0 since May 28, 2010 as a dog when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $815
Reds at Brewers – The Reds are 10-0 since May 05, 2010 as a favorite after a one run loss for a net profit of $1000. The Reds are 7-0 since April 29, 2010 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $810.
Cardinals at Marlins – The Cardinals are 0-4 since April 11, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $630 when playing against.
Astros at Nationals – The Astros are 4-0 since August 22, 2010 on the road when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $600.
Braves at Phillies – The Braves are 0-8 since June 06, 2010 as a dog after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Phillies are 18-0 since July 23, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1890.
Orioles at Red Sox – The Orioles are 4-0 since July 09, 2010 as a road 140+ dog when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $825. The Red Sox are 7-0 since June 01, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $700
Royals at Tigers – The Royals are 0-9 since July 09, 2010 on the road and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $945 when playing against. The Tigers are 13-0 since May 01, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $1300
Indians at Twins – The League is 0-12 since June 18, 2010 as a road 170+ dog after a loss in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Twins are 7-0 since June 15, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700.
Rays at Yankees – The Yankees are 0-4 since June 18, 2010 at home after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $690 when playing against.