Labor Day Baseball
By Judd Hall
Many folks will be enjoying Labor Day with beer, family, friend and barbecue. Of course, many of use will be doing that same stuff with a close eye to what’s happening on the baseball diamond. We’ve got 16 games on Monday’s slate, including a day/night doubleheader. Let’s take a look at a pair of the bigger showdowns.
Reds at Rockies – 3:10 p.m. EDT
There is no rest for the weary as the Reds travel out of St. Louis on Sunday to meet with Colorado on Monday afternoon. A trip out west might be the only way to hold down Cincinnati as they’ve won seven of its last nine ballgames. The result of that stretch has the Reds holding onto an eight-game edge over the Cardinals in the National League Central.
Cincy will look to tighten that stranglehold on the division lead with Aaron Harang (6-7, 4.92) getting the start for Game 1 of this series. Harang has been fairly solid for the Reds as of late, allowing no more than three earned runs in each of his last four starts. Although he is looking come back from a four-inning performance against Milwaukee due to back spasms. Harang also needs to improve on his record away from Great American Ballpark, evidenced by a 1-3 record with an earned run average of 5.63.
Colorado has kept themselves close enough in the NL West an Wild Card races all season long. Now they look like they have a chance to act as San Diego begins to fade. To get the Rockies over the hump, Ubaldo Jimenez (17-6, 2.69) needs to find his winning touch. That isn’t really fair to say against Jimenez as he’s thrown at least seven innings in six of his last seven starts. And he has allowed no more than three earned runs in each of those starts. What is hurting Jimenez in these games is the lack of offensive support. The Rox are scoring around 3 ½-runs when he’s on the mound.
The Reds will have their work cut out for them as they are 15-27 as road pups against NL West foes. And they’ve lost seven of their last nine in this role. The Rockies have won 11 of their last 15 tests at home NL Central rivals.
Rays at Red Sox – 7:10 p.m. EDT
The American League East has been one of the toughest divisions that anyone can remember in baseball for a while. Monday offers up a chance for the Rays to keep Boston to the curb at Fenway Park.
Tampa Bay has been matching the Yankees almost hit-for-hit to stay atop the division. Yet thanks to the Bombers’ recent winning streak, the Rays find themselves 2 ½-games out. That might be a good thing for Jeff Neimann (10-5, 3.97) to straighten himself out. Neimann has looked more than mortal in his last two starts, giving up 17 earned runs in 8.1 innings of work.
Boston isn’t exactly showing much fight right now as they’ve gone 3-7 in its last 10 games. Luckily for the Red Sox, Jon Lester (15-8, 3.27) gets the ball on Monday night in what could be a last ditch effort to stay relevant in the division. Lester has been on target recently with wins in four of his last five starts. But those wins are all on the road. Lester has lost three straight starts at Fenway Park, including that 16-2 beatdown the Blue Jays levied on him on August 20. The one saving grace for BoSox faithful is that he is 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season.
The Red Sox have been a solid ‘under’ play at home recently, evidenced by a 10-2 record in their last 12 home tests. Most people hate Monday, but not the Rays…at least not on the road. Tampa Bay has gone 5-2 this year in road games on Mondays.
vegasinsider.com
Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Roy Oswalt (10-13, 3.01 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies
Turns out, Roy Oswalt isn’t really a consolation prize after all. Of course that’s what everyone thought when the Phillies acquired him at the trade deadline. You see, most people were second-guessing Philadelphia management for trading away Cliff Lee in the offseason only to need to trade for another ace by midseason.
Now Lee is struggling in Texas while Oswalt is flourishing in Philly. The Phillies are 6-0 in his last six starts and the under is 4-2 during the stretch.
Oddsmakers have set the total at 6.5 in each of his last two starts and for good reason. Oswalt owns a 1.02 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over his last five outings.
Mat Latos (13-5, 2.25 ERA), San Diego Padres
The Padres are winning many of Latos’ starts these days but that’s not the youngster’s fault. The 6-foot-6 righty has allowed two or less runs in a ridiculous 14 straight starts. San Diego is just 2-4 in his last six appearances but the under is 5-1-1 in his last seven outings.
C.J. Wilson (14-5, 2.88 ERA), Texas Rangers
The support for C.J. Wilson’s Cy Young candidacy is swelling these days. Wilson is the straw that stirs the drink in Texas’ pitching staff. He’s carrying the load with Cliff Lee going through a rough spot.
Jennifer Floyd Engel of the Dallas Star-Telegram wrote a great column making the case for Wilson to win the AL Cy Young. Our favorite stat she listed was his 10 wins following a Rangers loss.
Texas is 9-0 in the southpaw’s last nine appearances and the 7-3 in his last 10 starts.
Struggling
Rodrigo Lopez (5-12, 5.24 ERA), Arizona Diamondbacks
Look, the whole year has been a struggle for his righty. He might be the worst starting pitcher on the worst team in baseball, so we know we’re not breaking any news here for astute bettors.
The thing is, there are a lot of really good hurlers heading to the mound tomorrow and we needed someone to fill the slumping spot. Lopez fits perfectly. Arizona is 1-8 in Rodrigo’s last nine appearances and the former Oriole has been tagged for five or more runs in three of his last four outings.
MLB RoundUp for 9/6
By Dan Bebe
National League
Marlins @ Phillies Doubleheader;
You guys know how I feel about these. Pass!
Mets (-111) @ Nationals with a total of 8
Fading the Mets would appear to be a decent play down the stretch, assuming they're playing on the road, and playing against a team that hasn't completely given up, for some combination of reasons. The Nats haven't been involved in a "race" in months, but it's clear they still want to put together a few good weeks going into the offseason. Jordan Zimmermann, who has made 2 starts since coming off the DL, is definitely a piece for the future, and I think Washington is high on him. Pelfrey has been, let's say, marginal against the Nats in his career, and hasn't faced them on the road yet. Seems like he'll give up a couple.
Braves (-205) @ Pirates with a total of 8
I don't see any particular reason to venture into this one. The Pirates have never seen Tommy Hanson, and while the Braves aren't very good on the road, these are the Pirates, and Atlanta's done a fine job of beating on some of the loser teams at any venue.
Cardinals @ Brewers (-130) with a total of 8.5
You look at this game, and the first thing that comes to mind is did the Cardinals turn it around? And the answer, somewhat definitively, is yes. They took 2 of 3 from the Reds over the weekend to at least keep from completely falling out of postseason contention. Of course, the last time the Cards whipped on the Reds, they went on to stink it up until the next series with Cincinnati. This time, though, I feel like the letdown won't be quite as severe, and Gallardo, despite being a big-name, is 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA against the Cardinals. St Louis is a live dog, I'd imagine.
Astros (-120) @ Cubs with a total of N/A
The Astros seem intent on closing the year strong, and Wandy has been a large part of that turnaround. Of course, Wandy's last crummy start, a little over a month ago, was here in Wrigley, so it's no sure bet that he dominates, and the Cubs are one of the best in the League at hitting lefties. I know Coleman is a turd, at least so far, but the Astros as a road favorite in Wrigley just tells you how the public has caught up to Wandy's turnaround.
Reds @ Rockies (-180) with a total of 8.5
There is inherent value in this line with the Reds. I know the Rockies are great at home, and the Reds are coming off an emotional series with the Cards, but they shouldn't be this big of a dog to anyone, let alone a guy that has settled into being a very good pitcher, but not the lights out starter he was at the beginning of the year. I'm probably not playing it, but just take that for what it's worth.
Giants (-120) @ D'backs with a total of 9
We've seen the Giants and D'backs play a few times this year, and the Giants have been able to hold it together, for the most part. Bumgarner tossed 7 innings of 2-run ball in a game the Giants won 10-5 over Kennedy, so maybe there's a little rematch action going on. In truth, even though the D'backs have been hitting better, the Giants need these games more, and I think that comes out in how the games are managed. This short price might actually be a decent one, and not a trap, despite San Francisco coming off the late game last night.
Dodgers @ Padres (-165) with a total of 6.5
Surely, if the Padres are going to snap out of their skid, it'll happen against my hometown club, the Dodgers. Something about this series just feels like that's how it's going to happen. Padilla makes his first start in some time, and while he is a solid 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA against the Padres, his opposition, Mat Latos, is 13-5 on the season with a 2.25 ERA against the entire League. Latos is 0-2 against the Dodgers, but that 3.21 ERA says he's been a bit unlucky, and I have trouble believing the Dodgers care as much about this game as the Padres do.
American League
Orioles @ Yankees (-230) with a total of 9.5
We've seen what Matusz can do against the best in the League, and how he gets himself amped up. But this line feels high even for an Orioles game. Can Burnett harness any small fraction of his ability? I would prefer to back the O's at home, though there's definitely some value with them at this beefy number.
Rangers @ Blue Jays (-145) with a total of 8.5
Ricky Romero has been dynamite against the Rangers, and I have to think that fact, combined with the note that Texas hasn't been playing that well, is coming off a terrible series in Minnesota that included a devastating loss in the series finale (on an interference call against the third base coach), well, it's tough to back Texas. Unfortunately, I happen to agree with that rather "square" assessment of this game. The line is inflated by a little bit, and Tommy Hunter's 7.50 ERA against the Jays doesn't do anything to keep it low.
White Sox @ Tigers (-130) with a total of 7.5
Edwin Jackson has been a beast since returning to the American League, and will be trying to shut down his former team for the 3rd time already since his move back to the AL. Scherzer has been among the hottest pitchers in all of baseball over the past couple months, and it seems like lines are just now starting to catch up. We know the Tigers are better at home than on the road, but the White Sox are rolling into town off a monster series in Boston, and they're dangerous right now. If we trust the bullpens, the Under is in play, but I'm not sure I do.
Royals @ Twins (-205) with a total of 9
There really isn't much reason to play this series unless you find a total that looks incredibly juicy. Fact is, the Twins are hitting, the Royals aren't really doing much in the way of key hits or power, and the motivation factor is huge on the side of Minnesota, as they fight to stay a few games up on the Chicago White Sox. This total could go up and Over if things play out "normally," but I'd rather take a pass on this one.
Mariners @ Athletics (-185) with a total of 7
This one has all the makings of a very quick, maybe a little painless, 2-1 win for someone. Of course, things never go the way they look like they should. Anderson and Vargas have both been struggling, the teams have been losing games started by these cats, and I'd say that Oakland has the slightly superior offense. No thanks to laying that kind of chalk, and no thanks to backing the worthless Mariners.
Rays @ Red Sox (-175) with a total of 8
I seriously cannot believe how high this line is, considering how poorly the Red Sox have been playing. This is a testament to the idea that the Red Sox are just always going to get huge public money, especially when all the talking heads have been hammering home the idea that this is Boston's "last stand." So, people throw money on Lester, figuring that it's as close to a sure thing as there is, with Niemann coming off some rough work, and Boston saving bullets for this important series. Just don't be too quick to jump on that bandwagon.
Indians @ Angels (-180) with a total of 7.5
I've been enjoying trying to find times to back the Indians, but they, to me, look like a bad team that isn't trying that hard to end the year on a strong note. They don't have a good bullpen, they don't have many veterans to help keep the team poised, and they're losing, so the confidence isn't swelling. Carlos Carrasco is supposedly a stud of the future, but the home-run happy Angels are likely to connect on a couple, especially since they found a little bit of a stroke yesterday. The Angels are a fade the rest of the way, don't get me wrong, but we need to pick and choose our spots.