Labor Day Plays
By Kevin Rogers
The Labor Day card around Major League Baseball involves a handful of aces, especially in the American League, taking the mound. Several of the daytime matchups feature teams in playoff contention that are trying to either sure up their position, or make up ground on other teams. In the Bronx, two division rivals get together for a long day of baseball.
Rays at Yankees (1:05 PM EST)
Tampa Bay and New York play a day-night doubleheader at Yankee Stadium, with the Bronx Bombers firmly in control of the AL East. Meanwhile, the defending AL Champion Rays need this series in the worst way to make up ground on the Red Sox in the Wild Card race.
AL Cy Young nominee CC Sabathia (16-7, 3.48 ERA) is on fire, going 8-1 his last ten decisions. In this span, Sabathia has allowed five earned runs in his last four home outings, all Yankee victories. Interestingly with all the runs scored at the new Yankee Stadium this season, Sabathia's run support has been stronger on the road (6.29) than at home (5.08). The only down side to backing CC on Labor Day is his day numbers. The Yanks are just 4-7 in Sabathia's 11 starts under the sun, while the 'over' has hit eight times.
The Rays have had Sabathia's number this season, beating the lefty twice, scoring 11 runs off the ace in 13.2 innings.
Matt Garza's (7-9, 4.01 ERA) career numbers against New York are not pretty, as the Rays are 0-5 his last five starts versus the Bombers. Garza has been a solid 'under' play on the road, with Tampa Bay finishing 'under' the total in 11 of his 12 away starts. The Tampa Bay righty is just 1-3 in 11 starts since the beginning of July.
Red Sox at White Sox (2:05 PM EST)
Two aces that have struggled recently take the mound on the South Side of Chicago, as the White Sox and Red Sox conclude their four-game set.
Mark Buehrle (11-7, 3.86 ERA) tossed a quality start his last time out against Minnesota, but left the game trailing, 2-0. The Sox bailed out Buehrle with a shocking four-run rally in the ninth against Twins' closer Joe Nathan to win, 4-2. Since his perfect game against the Rays at the end of July, the Sox lefty is 0-4 his last eight decisions, while putting up just three quality outings. The 'under' has turned into a solid play for Buehrle during the day, nailing it in 10 of 14 matinees at U.S. Cellular Field.
Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.87 ERA) has not been on his typical "A" game the last four starts, allowing 24 earned runs, while hitting the 'over' in each outing. The long ball has also been a problem for Beckett, giving up 15 homers his last five trips to the hill. The tide could turn for the Boston ace on Monday, as Beckett is 4-0 in four career starts against Chicago, including three wins on the South Side.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Red Sox as a $1.30 road favorites, with the total set at 8 ½ (Bet $1.25 to win $1.00 on the 'under').
Phillies at Astros (2:05 PM EST)
The Astros stumbled on their last road trip, going 2-7 against the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Cubs. Houston has bounced back at home, taking the first two games of a four-game set against the NL East-leading Phillies.
J.A. Happ (10-4, 2.77 ERA) continues to churn out 'unders' at a tremendous pace, now drilling it in 12 consecutive starts. The Philadelphia southpaw has hit the 'under' in nine of 11 away outings, with no more than five combined runs scored in five of his last six road starts. Happ is coming off back-to-back losses against the Pirates and Giants, but has tossed a quality start in ten of his 11 road contests.
Brian Moehler (8-10, 5.11 ERA) went through a nice stretch from May into mid-July, as the Astros won ten of his 13 starts. Since July 26, Houston is 2-6 his last eight outings. Moehler has thrown over 100 pitches just once during this span, while going 1-2 at home. The 'under' is on a nice run with Moehler lately, hitting in four straight starts.
The Phillies are a $1.65 road 'chalk' according to LVSC, with the total set at 9 (Bet $1.15 to win $1.00 on the 'under').
What else to watch for:
Cardinals' ace Chris Carpenter goes for his 16th win of the season, as St. Louis and Milwaukee open up a three-game set at Miller Park (2:05 PM EST). The Redbirds are 28-8 since July 27, while Carpenter is on track to win his second Cy Young Award.
Brad Penny makes his Giants' home debut against the Padres (4:05 PM EST). Penny was masterful in his initial start with San Francisco, shutting out Philadelphia, 4-0. The home team is 11-1 in the series this season, while the 'under' has been cashed in six of the last eight meetings.
In the second game of the doubleheader in the Bronx between the Rays and Yankees, Andy Sonnanstine and A.J. Burnett take the hill (7:05 PM EST). Tampa Bay is 2-7 is Sonnanstine's nine road starts, while Burnett has seen the 'under' been drilled in 10 of 13 home outings.
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Monday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
CC Sabathia (16-7, 3.48 ERA), New York Yankees
CC Sabathia is showing Yankees fans why he was worth the millions of dollars New York paid to get him. The Yanks are 9-1 in the big lefty’s last 10 starts, including last week’s 10-2 'W' over the Orioles.
“I’ve been saying it for a long time, I’ll take a World Series trophy over a Cy Young any day,” Sabathia told Newday after allowing one run and striking out nine against the Orioles. “That’s my goal, to win a World Series.”
If you think the price is too steep to back the Yanks Monday, consider the runline. The Bronx Bombers have covered the number in seven straight Sabathia starts.
Brian Moehler (8-10, 5.11), Houston Astros
Value hunters pay attention to this journeyman righty. The 37-year-old big league vet has strung together three consecutive impressive starts for the Astros. Although he came up on the losing end of Tuesday’s 4-1 setback to the Cubs, Moehler gave his club a good chance for the win.
“I thought [Moehler] deserved a better fate,” Houston manager Cecil Cooper told the club’s web site. “I thought he threw the ball well, hit his spots well and moved the ball around. He did a good job.”
The Astros are still 2-1 in Moehler’s last three appearances. The under is 4-0 in his last four trips to the mound.
Slumping
Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.87), Boston Red Sox
We took some slack for not including Beckett in the slumping section in his last start and the criticism was validated soon afterwards.
The former World Series MVP went six innings and struck out nine without issuing a walk, but the long ball was the big story again. Beckett was tagged for four earned runs along with two solo bombs.
It marked the fifth straight start that the righty allowed multiple homers. Opposing batters have taken Beckett out of the park 14 times over his last 26 1-3 innings pitched.
“He’s not hurt. He’s not throwing 79 mph,” Red Sox manager Terry Francona told reporters a little over a week ago. “He’s had a couple of outings that aren’t up to his standards.”
Betting against the Sox with Beckett on the bump is still risky (Boston is 3-2 in his last five starts). If you’re looking for a more reliable bet, as far as trends are concerned, take a peek at the total. The over is 5-0 in Beckett’s last five outings.
Scott Richmond (6-8, 4.61), Toronto Blue Jays
If you are looking for a possible parlay pitcher, the young righthander may fit the bill.
In his last six starts, Richmond is 0-4 with a 6.81 ERA. He has 18 walks in that span, inflating his WHIP to 1.85.
And in his last five outings, the total has gone over, with a minimum of 10 runs scored in each game.
Dave Bush (3-6, 6.47), Milwaukee Brewers
The righthander is listed as questionable with a triceps injury. Questionable is also a good word to describe his recent performances.
Bush was sidelined nearly two months with arm woes before returning late last month. He has lost both his starts, allowing 13 runs, 15 hits and five walks in eight innings. That's a staggering 2 1-2 baserunners per inning.
Going back to before his injury, Bush is winless in his last seven starts, lasting more than five innings just once.
This is his second straight start against the Cardinals, who tattooed him for 11 hits and eight runs in 3 1-3 innings last time.
Tampa Bay (72-64) at N.Y. Yankees (87-49)
With its hopes of winning the A.L. wild card fading away, the freefalling Rays travel up the East Coast for a day-night doubleheader against the first-place Yankees in the Bronx. Tampa Bay’s Matt Garza (7-9, 4.01 ERA) is scheduled to oppose CC Sabathia (16-7, 3.48) in the opener, with Andy Sonnanstine (6-8, 6.62) matching up against New York’s A.J. Burnett (10-8, 4.29) in the nightcap.
Tampa Bay capped a rare losing homestand with Sunday’s 5-3 loss to the Tigers. Not only were the Rays swept in the three-game series, they blew late-inning leads in all three games, including a 3-1, ninth-inning advantage Sunday. The Rays dropped five of six on the homestand, including the last four in a row, and they’re just 3-9 in their last 12 contests to fall way off the pace in the wild-card race.
The Yankees return home following a 5-2 road trip to Baltimore and Toronto that ended with Sunday’s 14-8 loss to the Blue Jays. New York has won eight of its last 10 and is on additional surges of 49-18 overall, 39-13 at home, 23-6 against divisional foes, 11-4 against teams with a winning record, 7-3 on Monday and 30-10 against right-handed starters.
New York has won four of the last five meetings against Tampa Bay this year and is 55-24 in the last 79 series clashes in the Bronx. The visitor is 7-3 in the last 10 battles.
Garza got a no-decision in his team’s 8-5 home win over the Red Sox on Wednesday, yielding four runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings. The veteran right-hander has allowed 10 runs in his last two starts covering 11 2/3 innings (7.71 ERA). The Rays are 5-1 in Garza’s last six outings against A.L. East foes, but just 4-8 when he pitches on the road this year, with Garza going 3-5 with a 4.89 ERA as a visitor.
Sabathia is 6-0 in his last seven trips to the mound (all Yankees victories), posting a 2.44 ERA in his last six outings, including a 1.23 ERA in his last two starts at home in which he manhandled the Red Sox (5-0 on Aug. Cool and White Sox (5-2 on Aug. 28). The hefty lefty is 8-1 in nine starts since July 18, including 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in four games in the Bronx (all New York wins).
After getting demoted to Triple-A for more than two months, Sonnanstine returned to the big leagues on Tuesday and did not fare well against the Red Sox, allowing five runs (three earned) in four innings of an 8-4 home loss. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA in his last three major-league starts going back to June, and he’s been a disaster on the road this year, going 1-7 with an 8.22 ERA (but 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA in two games at new Yankee Stadium).
Burnett squandered six runs (all earned) on 11 hits and two walks in just 5 1/3 innings at Baltimore on Tuesday, but New York rallied for a 9-6 victory, ending an 0-3 run behind the right-hander. Burnett is still 0-2 with a 9.92 ERA in his last three outings, but he’s 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA in 13 starts at new Yankee Stadium, with his squad going 10-3. In fact, with Burnett on the bump, New York is on surges of 9-4 overall, 7-1 at home and 6-1 against divisional rivals.
Garza has faced New York eight times in his career (seven starts), going 1-3 with a 3.80 ERA, including 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three contests this year, with Tampa Bay losing all three. In fact, the Rays are 0-5 in Garza’s last five appearances against the Yanks. Meanwhile, Sonnanstine is 2-2 with a 5.23 ERA in seven lifetime starts against the Bronx Bombers (0-1, 4.19 ERA in three starts this year).
Sabathia is 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 13 career starts against the Rays, but 0-1 with 5.93 ERA in two starts this year. Burnett is 9-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 19 starts versus Tampa Bay (2-0, 2.14 in three outings this season).
With Sabathia pitching, the over is 4-1 in his last five overall, but the under is 4-1-1 in his last six at home. Also, the under is 15-6-1 in Burnett’s last 22 starts overall, 6-0 in his last six at home and 7-3 in his last 10 against the A.L. East
The over is 7-3 in Sonnanstine’s last 10 starts overall, but with Garza pitching, the “under” is on streaks of 38-13-3 overall, 21-7-1 on the road, 17-5-1 when he pitches on grass and 7-1 against the A.L. East.
For Tampa Bay, the “over” is on runs of 4-1-1 overall, 5-0 on Monday, 5-1-1 against A.L. East foes and 7-0-1 in the second game of a doubleheader, but the under is 4-1 in its last five on the road. Meanwhile, New York has topped the total in five of its last six overall (all against divisional opponents) and six of its last seven against winning teams, but the under is 15-7-1 in the Yankees’ last 23 games in the Bronx and 4-1 in their last five on Monday.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall and 9-4 in New York.
ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 1): N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 2): N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Boston (79-57) at Chicago White Sox (68-70)
The Red Sox send struggling ace Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.87 ERA) back to the mound in the finale of a four-game series at US Cellular Field, with the White Sox countering with Mark Buehrle (11-7, 3.86), who will try once again to notch his first win in more than six weeks.
Chicago lost the first three meetings of the season to Boston 10 days ago at Fenway Park, getting outscored 21-13, but came back to win the series finale at Fenway and the first three games of this series by the combined tally of 26-8. However, the Red Sox put themselves in position to get a split of this series with Sunday’s 6-1 victory. Boston is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in this rivalry.
The White Sox have followed up a five-game losing streak by going 4-1 in its last five, and they’re 11-4 in their last 15 at home against right-handed starters. On the downside, they’ve lost four of their last five on Monday, eight of 11 versus the A.L. East and 18 of 25 when closing out a four-game set.
Boston has lost three of its last five following a 7-1 uptick. Still, the Red Sox are on positive runs of 47-19 against the A.L. Central, 11-3 when facing teams with a losing record and 8-2 on Monday.
Beckett is actually coming off his best start in nearly a month, but he still gave up five runs (four earned) in six innings at Tampa Bay, getting a no-decision in his team’s 8-5 loss. Beckett is 6-4 with a 4.22 ERA in 14 road starts this season, but he’s surrendered 25 runs (24 earned) in his last four outings (two home, two road) covering 24 1/3 innings (8.88 ERA), yet remarkably Boston has managed to split those four games.
Despite Beckett’s struggles over the past month, the Red Sox are still 20-8 in his last 28 trips to the hill, 21-5 in his last 26 against losing teams, 15-3 in his last 18 against the A.L. Central and 5-0 when he closes out a four-game series. Boston has also won Beckett’s last four starts against Chicago, against whom the Texas native is 4-0 with a 3.68 ERA in five career efforts.
Buehrle has been much better in his last two starts, giving up two runs over six innings in each contest. On Thursday at Minnesota, he stood to a lose a 2-0 decision before the White Sox hit back-to-back home runs with two outs in the top of the ninth, then followed with two more runs in the inning to steal a 4-2 victory. Still, Buehrle remains winless in eight starts since his perfect game on July 23, going 0-4 with four no-decisions. He’s 7-4 with a 3.74 ERA in 16 starts this year on the South Side.
The ChiSox are an impressive 61-28 in Buehrle’s last 89 starts at US Cellular Field. Otherwise, though, Chicago behind Buehrle is in ruts of 2-6 overall, 4-10 on Monday, 2-6 when he faces Boston and 2-5 when he pitches at home against the BoSox. He’s 5-5 with a 4.71 ERA in 12 career outings against the Red Sox.
Chicago carries nothing but “under” trends, including 15-4 overall, 7-1 at home, 9-4 against the A.L. East, 7-3 on Monday, 38-18-2 against winning teams and 38-19-3 versus right-handed starters. Also, the under is 5-1 in Buehrle’s last six starts overall and 4-1 in his last five versus the A.L. East. Conversely, Boston is on “over” tears of 5-2-1 against southpaw starters and 5-0 with Beckett on the hill.
In this rivalry, the under is 7-3-1 in the last 10 meetings overall and 5-2 in the last seven battles on the South Side.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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SCOREBOARD
Monday, September 7
Tampa Bay at New York Yankees (7:05 p.m. EDT). CC Sabathia (16-7, 3.48 ERA) tries to become the American League's first 17-game winner in the second game of a day-night doubleheader.
STARS
Sunday
-Brandon Inge, Tigers, hit a grand slam with one out in the ninth inning that rallied Detroit over Tampa Bay 5-3. He had struck out in each of his first three at-bats.
-Chris Young, Diamondbacks, hit three home runs in Arizona's 13-5 loss to Colorado. He began the game at Coors Field with only seven homers in 340 at-bats this season.
-Seth Smith, Rockies, homered twice and drove in a career-high five runs to lead Colorado over Arizona 13-5.
-Prince Fielder, Brewers, hit a game-ending home run in the 12th inning to lift Milwaukee past San Francisco 2-1. Earlier, the slugging first baseman caught a relay to complete Milwaukee's first triple play in 10 years.
-Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals, hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth that lifted Washington past Florida 5-4.
-Garrett Jones, Pirates, hit an RBI single to cap a two-run rally in the bottom of the ninth against St. Louis closer Ryan Franklin to lead Pittsburgh to a 6-5 win. The Pirates ended a nine-game skid.
-Jon Lester, Red Sox, pitched seven shutout innings and struck out eight in Boston's 6-1 win over the Chicago White Sox. He became the 10th different Boston pitcher to fan 200 in a season.
-Scott Hairston, Athletics, hit a grand slam in the seventh inning that sent Oakland over Seattle 5-2.
-Kevin Kouzmanoff and Adrian Gonzalez, Padres. Kouzmanoff had a run-scoring grounder in the first and a two-run single in the third, and Gonzalez hit a solo homer in the fifth to help San Diego beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3.
SWINGING
Ichiro Suzuki got his 2,000th hit in the majors Sunday. He became the second-fastest player to reach the mark, doing it in 1,402 games; Al Simmons did it in 1,390. The 35-year-old Suzuki also got 1,278 hits while playing in Japan.
SCARY
In a season filled with beanings, Toronto rookie Randy Ruiz and Reds reliever Micah Owings were hit in the head by pitches Sunday. Ruiz was struck in the cheek by the Yankees' Josh Towers and was able to walk away without assistance. Owings was hit in the helmet by Atlanta's Kenshin Kawakami and expects to be OK.
SLUGGING PAIR
Evan Longoria hit his 28th home run for Tampa Bay on Sunday. The 2008 AL Rookie of the Year joined teammate Carlos Pena in reaching 100 RBIs, marking the first time two Tampa Bay players hit the mark in the same year.
SPECTACULAR
Cubs shortstop Andres Blanco turned in a terrific play against the Mets on Sunday, diving to stop Jeff Francoeur's grounder up the middle and throwing to first from the seat of his pants as he rolled over on the outfield grass. "That's as good a play as I've ever seen made at the major league level,'' Cubs manager Lou Piniella said.
SLUMPS
Alex Rios struck out three times for the White Sox on Sunday, leaving him in a 4-for-46 rut. ... Kansas City's Luke Hochevar, the first pick in the 2006 draft, is 0-6 with an 8.12 ERA in eight starts since a July 25 victory over Texas.
SLOPPY
The Yankees, with the best record in the majors, made a season-high four errors Sunday in a 14-8 loss at Toronto. The infield was especially shoddy - first baseman Mark Teixeira misplayed a grounder at first, and third baseman Jerry Hairston Jr., second baseman Robinson Cano and backup shortstop Ramiro Pena all made throwing errors.
ON THE MEND
Mets center fielder Carlos Beltran went 1 for 5 and struck out three times for Class A Brooklyn. Out 2 1/2 months because of a knee injury, he said he was ready to rejoin New York on Tuesday. ... Minnesota lefty Francisco Liriano (arm fatigue) threw in the bullpen. He is scheduled to pitch a simulated game Tuesday in Toronto and may be activated Thursday.
SPEAKING
"When I was spitting blood, I thought I probably broke my nose. After a while, when I looked in the mirror, I thought, 'Ah, my face is swollen. I'm fine now.' Nothing growing up in New York City that I haven't experienced.'' - Toronto rookie Randy Ruiz, who walked away without assistance after being hit in the face by a pitch Sunday.