Monday’s Best Mound Matchup
By Covers.com
Andy Pettitte (New York Yankees) vs. Jered Weaver (Los Angeles Angels)
Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16 ERA)
There’s never been a pitcher with more postseason experience than this guy. The 37-year-old became the Majors all-time leader in playoff innings pitched and tied John Smoltz for most career postseason wins following his masterful start against the Twins in the ALDS last week.
Pettitte is 15-8 in his 36 playoff starts.
The veteran lefty struck out seven and allowed just one run in 6 1-3 innings pitched versus the Twins.
Pettitte didn’t look anything like the pitcher who was pulled in the fifth inning in his last regular season start. The under is now 4-0 in Pettitte last four starts.
Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.63)
Weaver was making spitballs in high school English class when Pettitte pitched his first postseason game. And while Weaver is a decade younger than Pettitte, he’s no wide-eyed puppy when it comes to pitching in pressure-packed situations.
He owns a 2-1 record with a 1.88 ERA in postseason 14.1 innings. The Halos have been money in the bank with Weaver on the bump this season. Dating back to May 22, Los Angeles is 18-8 when Jered takes the ball.
The under is paying out well with this hurler too. It is 6-0-2 in Weaver’s last eight starts, including last week’s 4-1 win over the Red Sox in the ALDS.
Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Dodgers: Not only do the Dodgers have to adjust to playing in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, but also another night of brisk 40-degree weather. Los Angeles has proven resilient all season, though, going 40-17 in its last 57 games following a loss. However, the Dodgers have dropped five of their past six road games. Left-hander Randy Wolf gets the call. He last pitched in the opener of the Dodgers’ division series against St. Louis. The former Philadelphia pitcher didn’t factor in the decision after giving up two runs in 3 2/3 innings. Wolf surrendered six hits and five walks during his brief outing. Wolf was hot during the stretch, though, going 6-1. Wolf was 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA versus the Phillies this season. Lifetime at Citizens Bank Park, Wolf is 9-7 with a 4.30 ERA. Wolf had the fifth-lowest road ERA in the league this season at 2.78.
Los Angeles is 20-8 in Wolf’s past 28 starts.
The Dodgers are 6-13 in their last 19 games versus the Phillies.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Phillies (-$1.30, O/U 9 under -$1.25): The Phillies have won seven of Joe Blanton’s last nine starts. The right-hander was 12-8 this season with a 4.05 ERA. Blanton made two appearances in the NL Division Series against the Rockies, both out of the bullpen. He allowed two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings with one strikeout and no walks. At home this season, Blanton was 7-4 with a 3.82 ERA compared to 5-4 with a 4.35 ERA on the road. Philadelphia has won 16 of its last 21 playoff games. The Phillies are 34-15 in their last 49 games at Citizens Band Park. Ryan Howard has reached base in 16 consecutive playoff games, including getting at least one RBI in seven straight contests. The Phillies are 35-16 in their last 51 games when facing a southpaw starter. They also are 35-17 during their last 52 games against National League West clubs.
The Under is 9-3-1 in Joe Blanton’s last 13 home starts.
The Under is 13-6 the past 19 times Ted Barrett has been the home plate umpire.
Key Injuries - Relief pitcher J.C. Romero (arm) is out
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Game 3 - Yankees vs. Angels
By Kevin Rogers
The weather will certainly improve when the Yankees and Angels head out west for Game 3 of the ALCS on Monday afternoon. In Los Angeles' case, hopefully the Halos' luck changes as well, trying to dig themselves out of a 2-0 hole.
The Yankees received a tremendous pitching performance from CC Sabathia in the series opener, as New York won 4-1. Sabathia scattered four hits and one earned run in eight innings of work. The Bombers did one better on Saturday night, by edging the Angels 4-3 in 13 innings to take a 2-0 series lead. The Yanks were saved by Alex Rodriguez's game-tying homer in the 11th inning, then scored the game-winning run on an error in the 13th.
The first two games finished 'under' the total thanks to the chilly and even sometimes rainy conditions in the Bronx. Now, the sun will shine in Anaheim for an early start out west. Mike Scioscia saved Jered Weaver (17-8, 3.55 ERA) for this situation, as the young righty is 10-3 at home this season. The Angels have won 13 of Weaver's 18 home starts this season, including a 14-8 victory over the Yankees back in July.
To take it a step further, Weaver's day numbers are spectacular, as the Halos are 6-1 in his starts under the sun. The Angels have outscored the opposition in Weaver's day starts by 4 ½ runs a game (7.8 to 3.2).
Andy Pettitte (15-8, 4.07 ERA) has fared well away from the Bronx this season, putting up a 9-4 road mark (12-5 team record). However, the Yanks lost both of Pettitte's starts in Anaheim this season. The first defeat came against Weaver in July, allowing six earned runs and seven hits in 4.1 innings of work. The second loss happened in September, but Pettitte's numbers significantly improved from the last start (6 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER), however, the Yanks fell 5-2.
Pettitte's last start came in the ALDS, as the Yankees beat the Twins, 4-1. The veteran southpaw struck out seven, while allowing just three hits and one run in six innings of work. Since 2001, Pettitte has made 14 postseason starts with the Yankees and Astros, as those teams are 5-9 in the lefty's outings.
The 'under' has hit in six of Weaver's last seven starts, while the Yankees have drilled the 'under' in eight of their last ten games against right-handed starting pitchers. Meanwhile, Pettitte has been a strong 'under' play on the road, as the Yankees have cashed in 11 of his 16 away starts.
The Angels are listed as a $1.25 home favorite in most shops, with the total set at 9 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'under'). If you want to take a shot at the Angels to come back and win this series, the updated series price is +600. On the flip side, you can get the Yankees at -900 to win the series from here on out.
vegasinsider.com
ALCS
N.Y. Yankees (5-0) at L.A. Angels (3-2)
After winning the first two games at home, the Yankees head to Southern California looking to take a commanding 3-0 lead in this best-of-7 ALCS with veteran lefty Andy Pettitte (15-8, 4.07 ERA) on the hill for New York opposite right-hander Jered Weaver (17-8, 3.55) at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, Calif.
The Yankees got a 10th-inning, game-tying homer from Alex Rodriguez and then an error in the 13th gave them a 4-3 victory Saturday night in Game 2. New York took Game 1 by a 4-1 score behind a dominating outing from ace CC Sabathia.
New York – which is back in the ALCS after getting bounced in the first round in 2005, 2006 and 2007 – has had little trouble in the playoffs so far, winning four of its five games by multiple runs. The Yankees, who had a 13-year streak of playoff appearances snapped last season, are on impressive runs of 46-17 overall, 51-18 after a victory, 10-3 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 on Monday and 4-0 against A.L. West opponents. However, the last time the Yankees were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004, and they haven’t advanced to the World Series since 2003.
The Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, but this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five. Going back to the end of the regular season, the Halos have won 10 of 13 overall, six of seven at home, five straight as a favorite and 10 of 14 after an off-day. However, they’ve dropped 12 of their last 16 playoff games, including six of eight at home.
These teams have met just twice in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005. In the regular season this year, the teams split their 10 meetings, with L.A. going 4-1 at home. In fact, the host is 16-4 in the last 20 clashes going back to the beginning of last August (9-3 this season).
With Pettitte on the mound, the Yankees are on positive streaks of 9-3 overall, 18-7 on Mondays, 4-1 as a road ‘dog and 7-3 when he gets seven or more days off. He pitched on Oct. 11 in the clinching Game 3 of the ALDS at Minnesota, allowing one run on three hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-1 victory. With that performance, the 37-year-old became the winningest pitcher in playoff history, improving to 15-9 with a 3.89 ERA in 36 starts, including 5-2 with a 4.13 ERA in 11 outings in the League Championship Series.
Pettitte faced the Angels three times this season, going 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA, allowing a combined 14 runs over 16 innings, and both losses came in Southern California. For his career, Pettitte is 12-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 28 career starts against Los Angeles, including 6-7 with a 4.19 ERA in 16 outings at Angel Stadium.
Weaver went 10-3 with a 2.72 ERA this season at home, and he’s 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts overall going back to the end of the regular season. Weaver was outstanding in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Red Sox, allowing one run on two hits over 7 1/3 innings of a 4-1 victory. He’s now made three postseason starts the last three Octobers, going 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA. With the Southern California native on the hill, the Angels are on runs of 18-8 overall, 36-16 at home and 20-8 at home against winning teams.
Weaver battled the Yankees three times in the regular season, allowing 11 runs (10 earned) in 19 1/3 innings, with the Angels losing twice. However, L.A. did earn a 14-8 win the only time Weaver faced New York at home. In seven career starts against the Yanks, Weaver is 4-2 with a 5.88 ERA in 41 1/3 innings.
The Yankees are on a plethora of “under” streaks behind Pettitte, including 54-24-2 overall, 34-16-1 when he starts on the road and 9-3 when he faces A.L. West teams. As a team, New York is on “under” runs of 15-5-1 overall, 8-2 in playoff road games, 5-0-1 in playoff games overall, 4-0 after an off-day and 16-5-1 after a victory.
With Weaver on the hill, Los Angeles is on “under” streaks of 6-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 at home, 5-0-1 as a favorite and 6-1-3 when he gets nine or more days off. As a team, the Angels are on “under” runs of 34-16-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-1 at home against southpaws, 20-7-1 as a favorite and 5-1 against A.L. East teams.
In this rivalry, the under is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall and 7-2-1 in Pettitte’s last 10 starts in Anaheim, but the over is 5-1 in Weaver’s last six starts against the Yankees and 14-5 in the last 19 head-to-head clashes in Southern California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NLCS
L.A. Dodgers (4-2) at Philadelphia (5-2)
The Phillies look to put a stranglehold on their National League Championship Series against the Dodgers when they send Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.07) to the Citizens Bank Park mound to face Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.30 ERA) in Game 4.
Philadelphia jumped on the Dodgers early and often on Sunday, scoring four runs in the first inning and two in the second en route to an 11-0 blowout victory in Game 3. Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard each drove in three runs, while starter Cliff Lee allowed just three hits and struck out 10 over eight shutout innings as the Phillies took a 2-1 series lead.
The Dodgers are still 6-2 in their last eight games and are on additional positive surges of 5-1 as an underdog, 5-3 as a playoff pup and 5-0 against right-handed starters, but they’re 1-5 in their last five on the highway. Also, they’ve lost six of eight NLCS games the last two years, all to the Phillies, going 0-3 at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 playoff contests dating to last year’s run to the World Series title, and they’re on additional surges of 6-2 overall, 34-15 at home, 9-1 in home playoff games, 9-1 as a playoff favorite, 12-3 against the N.L. West, 35-16 against left-handed starters (19-7 versus lefties at home) and 20-7 on Monday.
Going back to last August and including the playoffs, Philadelphia has won 13 of 19 against L.A. (8-2 at Citizens Bank Park). In addition to last year, the Phillies knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs in 1983 after getting eliminated by Los Angeles in the 1977 and 1978 NLCS.
Wolf’s first-ever postseason start came in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cardinals on Oct. 7, and he couldn’t get out of the fourth, allowing two runs on six hits and five walks in 3 2/3 innings. However, the Dodgers’ bullpen bailed him out, giving up just one run in 5 1/3 innings, as L.A. prevailed 5-3, improving to 10-2 in Wolf’s last 12 trips to the mound. Wolf has now allowed exactly two runs in four straight outings (3.43 ERA). He’s also yielded three runs or less in each of his last 11 outings and two runs or fewer in 14 of his last 19, with 15 of those qualifying as quality starts.
Wolf has been better on the road (7-4, 2.87 ERA) than at home (4-3, 3.67 ERA) in 2009. One of his road wins came in Philadelphia on May 13, when he yielded one run on three hits in six innings of a 9-2 victory. However, Wolf, who pitched for the Phillies from 1999-2006, got bombed by his former team three weeks later in L.A., giving up six runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings, losing 7-2. For his career, he’s 1-1 with a 4.12 ERA in three starts versus the Phillies.
Blanton made two relief appearances in the divisional round against Colorado, giving up a run in each contest while pitching a total of 3 2/3 innings. The big right-hander hasn’t started a game since Oct. 2 against Florida, when he allowed five runs on six hits in six innings of a 7-2 home loss. He also allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings in his previous start on Sept. 27, though he managed to earn a 6-5 home win over Milwaukee.
The Phillies are 5-0 in Blanton’s last five starts on Monday and 7-2 in his last nine at home, where he’s 7-4 with a 3.82 ERA this season. Against the Dodgers, the Nashville native is 1-0 with a 3.30 ERA in five career starts, one of which came in Los Angeles on June 6 when he yielded just a run on five hits over six innings, yet got a no-decision as the Phillies lost 3-2 in 12 innings. Blanton also faced the Dodgers in last year’s NLCS, allowing three runs in five innings, with Philadelphia prevailing 7-5 in Game 4 on the road.
With his two relief outings against Colorado, Blanton is now 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in six games (three starts) in the postseason.
With Wolf pitching, the Dodgers carry “over” trends of 5-0-2 overall, 4-0-2 at home and 8-2 against N.L. East foes. Behind Blanton, Philadelphia is on “over” stretches of 4-1-1 overall and 3-1-1 at home, but the under is 9-3-1 in his last 13 at home.
As a team, Los Angeles sports “over” runs of 5-1-1 against the N.L. East, 10-4-1 versus winning teams and 5-2 against right-handed starters. Also, the Phillies carry nothing but “over” streaks, including 16-5-2 overall, 11-3-2 against right-handed starters, 11-2-2 as a favorite, 4-1-1 in the playoffs and 8-3 in the fourth game of a series. Conversely, the under is 12-6-2 in Philadelphia’s last 20 home games.
Finally, the under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 Dodgers-Phillies battles at Citizens Bank Park, but the over is 5-3 in the eight postseason meetings between the squads the last two Octobers (2-1 in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER