Saturday's Best MLB Mound Matchup
Matt Garza, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers
Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA)
If not for the road struggles of James Shields, Garza would have taken the bump in Game 2 in Tampa Bay.
Now, the 26-year-old will be counted on to keep the team’s season alive.
Garza has had a rough September but got his act together down the stretch to help his team clinch the American League East Division. In his past two outings, he has allowed just four earned runs over his past 14 innings, including 11 strikeouts against only one walk.
The right-hander also has been solid in his postseason career, allowing only 11 earned runs over 25 innings in four career starts, including recording 25 strikeouts. In 2008 he was named the ALCS MVP when he helped the Rays get past the Red Sox.
“It's not bigger than any other, just got to go out there and do my job,” Garza, who won Game 7 in Boston in 2008, told MLB.com. “Just go out there and try to win. There's no tomorrow, there's no day after, it's just go out there and win, do what we do best, and that's play hard, pitching and defense. Just go out there and keep these guys at bay for a while.”
In his career against the Rangers, Garza is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and is allowing them to bat a meager .229. Four of his past five starts have gone over the total and he has a record of 18-14 against the number this season.
Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA)
The 31-year-old has been one of the steadiest members of the Rangers rotation this season. But now the pressure is on.
Lewis has yielded two or fewer runs in each of his past five starts, going a total of 30.1 innings and yielding a meager eight runs during that span. Overall, opponents are hitting just .227 against him this season. He also ranks seventh in the AL in strikeouts (196) and ninth in WHIP (1.19).
"Basically, I'm just going to do what I have been trying to do all year -- go out, get ahead of guys, make quality pitches and get quick outs," Lewis told MLB.com. "Kind of like what those two guys did. Get quick outs and go deep into the game."
Not bad for a player who spent the past two seasons with Hiroshima in Japan compiling a record of 26-17.
Lewis has been money in the bank for the under players this season, going 10-20 against the total this year.
Rangers MLB odds favorites to finish sweep
By: Willie Bee
Maybe the Tampa Bay Rays will be able to hit on the road when their ALDS series continues Saturday in the Lone Star State. If not, the Texas Rangers are going to waltz into the American League Championship Series for the first time in franchise history.
Texas is now one win away from winning a postseason series for the first time in franchise history. MLB oddsmakers like their chances to close the best-of-five set out at home Saturday with the Rangers minus 125-130 choices at shops like 5Dimes. The same offshore site listed Game 3's total at nine, juicing the 'under' to minus 125.
Saturday's pitching matchup is Colby Lewis (14-18, 3.72) on the home mound with Matt Garza (18-14, 3.91) scheduled for the visitors. First pitch is set for 2:07 p.m. PT with TBS once again providing the broadcast.
Tampa Bay was not able to muster anything against Rangers left-handers Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson in Games 1 and 2. The Rays had Lee on the ropes in the first inning with the sacks drunk and only one out. But Lee wiggled free with a pair of strikeouts to end that threat and wasn't hurt again until the seventh when he surrendered Tampa Bay's lone run in the 5-1 victory. Tampa's lineup never seriously threatened in Game 2 versus Wilson.
Texas closed as a 120 MLB money line underdog in the opener and roughly the same in Thursday's 6-0 whitewashing. Both games fell short of the 7- and 8½-run closing 'totals.' That puts Tampa Bay on a 10-game run to the low side dating back to their Sept. 25 contest in Seattle.
Both games have seen the Rays on the wrong side of controversial ball/strike calls by the umpires. Crew chief Tim Welke ruled a foul tip on Rays slugger Carlos Peña in the bottom of the first in Game 1, a pitch that could've been ball four to force an early Tampa Bay run across. Game 2 saw the call go the other way when Texas third baseman Michael Young was given new life on a check swing in the decisive fifth inning. Up two-zip, Young proceeded to swat a three-run homer on the next pitch after the Rays thought they had him struck out.
Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon was eventually tossed because of that call.
Lewis missed facing the Rays when the two teams met for a pair of regular season series. The veteran of six MLB seasons now, plus two years in Japan, will be making his first playoff appearance in front of the home fans. Texas split his 14 starts at Rangers Ballpark in 2010 where Lewis crafted a 3.41 ERA in 87 innings (75 K, 30 BB, .240 BAA).
Garza faced Texas in both series meetings with Tampa Bay winning both of his starting assignments. The right-hander was a 130 favorite on June 6 in the 9-5 Rays win. Garza worked into the sixth and allowed four runs.
He was even heavier chalk in the second outing, Aug. 17 at Tropicana Field, when the Rays went off with a minus 165 MLB money line. Garza tossed seven scoreless in the 10-1 win and struck out a season-best 10 batters.
Jerry Meals, the object of Rays disagreement in Game 2, should be behind the plate for this matchup. He might become the object of their affection if his season stats hold up. Home favorites won just nine of 23 times with Meals calling the pitches. 'Totals' bettors can find a small 'under' lean with his 18-14-2 overall record. However, of the four games he worked that closed with an 8½-run number, three ventured 'over.'
It should be nice weather all weekend in the D-FW metroplex. Clear skies with no chance of rain, look for Saturday's first-pitch temperature to be a little shy of the forecast high of 86ºF. Given the Mother Nature's fickleness, check the forecast closer to game time.
Game 4, if necessary, is set for Sunday (10 a.m. PT). Current listed starters are Wade Davis (16-13, 4.07) for the Rays opposite Texas' Tommy Hunter (16-6, 3.73).
Both teams entered the postseason with nearly equal odds to win the World Series. That has obviously changed dramatically with the Rangers taking the first two games of this series. Texas is currently plus 400 to go all the way at Bookmaker.com with Tampa Bay plus 2000. The Rangers are plus 125 to win their first AL pennant, a number that will also dramatically change should the Yankees finish off the Twins in the ALDS where New York also holds a 2-0 stranglehold.
NOTE: W-L records displayed for starting pitchers are team records in games the pitchers start.
Yankees aim for sweep of Twins
By: Brad Young
New York has its sights set on sweeping Minnesota out of the playoffs for the second consecutive season. The Yankees won both matchups in the Twins’ new Target Field, and can close out this best-of-five series with Saturday’s contest.
Minnesota has now lost 11 straight postseason games, including the last eight against New York. The Yankees have trailed in each of those contests before recording the victory. New York has now outscored the Twins, 42-8, when Minnesota has the biggest lead in those games.
Don Best's Real-Time Odds has New York listed as 175 home ‘chalk’ over Minnesota, with the total set at nine. Saturday’s first pitch is scheduled for 5:37 p.m. PT from Yankee Stadium.
Minnesota left-hander Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA) picked up a no-decision last Saturday in his regular-season finale against Toronto. The second-year starter went five innings, allowing four runs on seven hits (one home run) with four walks and three strikeouts on 89 pitches.
The Twins eventually won that matchup as a 109 home selection, 5-4. The combined nine runs eclipsed the 7 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1 his last four starts.
Duensing has only faced the Yankees once in his major league career, losing in the 2009 postseason as a decided 320 road underdog, 7-2. The former Nebraska Cornhusker was reached for five runs on seven hits (one home run) with a walk and three strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings and 79 pitches. The combined nine runs slithered ‘under’ the 9 ½-run closing total.
Minnesota, a modest 41-40 away from home, is just 2-10 its last 12 games overall. The Twins are a lackluster 6-29 their last 35 games in New York, and 18-56 the previous 74 meetings. Minnesota has seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 its last nine road outings.
New York’s Philip Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA) beat Boston Sept. 26 in his last regular season start as a 183 home favorite, 4-3. The 6-foot-5 hurler tossed six innings, surrendering a run on three hits with four walks and four strikeouts on 105 pitches.
The combined seven runs failed to topple the 9 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 2-1 his last three starts. Hughes did throw one inning against the Red Sox last Saturday in a final tune-up for the postseason, yielding no runs or hits while striking out two.
The 24-year-old has only one career start versus the Twins, winning last year’s matchup as 127 home ‘chalk,’ 5-4. Hughes went five innings, allowing three runs on six hits (two home runs) with four walks and two strikeouts on 93 pitches. The combined nine runs went ‘under’ the 10 ½-run closing total.
New York, a stellar 52-29 at Yankee Stadium, sports a 7-1 home record its last eight playoff games. The ‘under’ has gone 6-1-1 during those eight matchups.
Saturday’s home-plate umpire will be Greg Gibson, who has seen the ‘under’ go a robust 24-7 in 35 games behind the dish. There has been an average of just 7.2 runs per game, with 6.9 walks and 14.6 strikeouts.
Saturday’s forecast for Yankee Stadium calls for sunny skies, with a high of 70 degrees and a low of 46.