Fox Saturday Baseball
By Judd Hall
The first Saturday of the Major League Baseball season gets the Fox treatment with three games being shown regionally at 3:00 p.m. EDT. American League East powers do battle in Tropicana Field as the Yankees take on the Rays, while National League Central foes face off in the land of beer and brats. Also, the Mariners make the trip to Arlington to play against the Rangers.
Yankees at Rays
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the line for this contest up with the Yankees as $1.55 road favorites (risk $155 to win $100) with a total of 8 ½. The Rays can be had for a healthy plus-145 return (risk $100 to win $145).
Tampa Bay (2-1, +40) showed the ability to come from behind twice against the Orioles to start the season. Yet the Rays couldn’t find a way to get around some shoddy calls from the umpires on Thursday night to fall 5-4 as $1.60 home faves to Baltimore.
The Rays will give the ball over to Wade Davis, who showed great promise as a September call-up last season. He went 2-2 with a 3.72 earned run average in six starts in 2009. Davis was much more dominant on the mound in Tropicana Field, going 1-1 in four starts and 23 strikeouts to just seven walks.
Davis has one career start against the Yankees, allowing three earned runs in five innings of work en route to a 10-2 home loss back on Oct. 4 of last season.
C.C. Sabathia will take to the mound for New York (2-1, +153) on Saturday afternoon with redemption on his mind. The Yankees’ ace looked shaky on opening night in Boston, lasting just 5.1 innings and giving up five earned runs on six hits in a 9-7 loss. The only positive for Sabathia is that he didn’t get hitched with the “loss,” saving that honor for Chan Ho Park.
The redemption factor for Sabathia also coincides with facing those bullies in Tampa Bay as he went 0-2 with a 5.84 ERA in four starts against the last year. New York didn’t do well in those games on the whole with a 1-3 mark. The totals went 2-2 in those games.
Tampa Bay has not feared many southpaws at the Trop, going 34-24 over the last two seasons. And a 9-5 mark in the Rays’ last 14 games against lefties. The ‘under’ also posting a 9-5 mark in those tilts as well.
Cardinals at Brewers
St. Louis (2-1, +95) was one of the many teams that failed to get the sweep in its season opening series. After dropping 11 runs on Monday and crossed the plate six times on Wednesday night. Yet the Cards could only muster one run against Bronson Arroyo as they lost 2-1as $1.05 road faves to Cincinnati.
The Cardinals will entrust the starting duties of Game 2 of this series to Jaime Garcia. Chris Carpenter was supposed to get the start in this contest, but Tony LaRussa opted to give him an extra day of rest. Garcia is making his first start since July 20, 2008 against San Diego. He tossed five innings of five-hit ball, giving up three earned runs in a 9-5 win over the Padres.
Milwaukee (2-1, +102) opened its season with a series win over the Rockies in Miller Park. The only loss the Brew Crew suffered was a 5-3 decision on Monday as $1.05 home faves. Yovani Gallardo took the loss in that game by giving up three earned runs in seven innings of work. Gallardo will get the ball on Saturday afternoon, but don’t look for any miracles to happen since he is 0-2 with an ERA of 5.70 in four career starts against the Cards.
LVSC has tabbed the Brewers as $1.55 home faves with the total coming in at eight. Bettors looking to take St. Louis to win outright can expect a return of plus-145 on their investment. This series has been fairly even with both teams winning nine games last season. The ‘under’ went 10-7-1 those fixtures. Road teams have been the way to go at the betting window as of late since they’ve won seven straight in this head-to-head series.
Milwaukee has been profitable as a home “chalk” against left-handed pitchers over the last two years, evidenced by a 29-20 mark. In day games, however, the Brewers have lost six of their last seven tilts as home faves against southpaws.
Mariners at Rangers
The good folks at LVSC have installed the Mariners as $1.30 road faves with a total of nine. Gamblers can take Texas (1-2, -221) to pick up the outright win at plus-120.
Seattle (1-3, -200) comes into this game after being brought back down to reality after losing three of four on the road to the Athletics to open the 2010 campaign. The M’s were confused on several occasions by Oakland’s lefty Brian Anderson in the 6-2 loss to close out the series.
If there is any positive for the Mariners going into this test, it’s that Felix Hernandez is taking to the mound on Saturday afternoon. He lasted 6.2 innings and gave up three earned runs on three hits to guide Seattle to a 5-3 win as a $1.52 road “chalk.”
When you look at Hernandez’s numbers from last year, you can understand why the M’s are favored. “King Felix” was 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA last April and is 4-1 with a matching 2.38 ERA in six starts against the Rangers in 2009.
Texas started the year with a great come-from-behind win to start the season. But a pair of losses to the Blue Jays just might have made team president Nolan Ryan to eat his prediction of a 92-win season.
Matt Harrison will try to help the Rangers get back on track. Not a bad choice considering that he’s gone 7-4 in 15 career home starts. You’d probably want to shade back on the ‘over’ for this one since his ERA in those 15 starts is 5.82.
Despite the decent numbers for Harrison, Seattle just might make him its personal whipping boy. The Mariners have been road favorites against left-handers six times in 2009. They went 4-2 in those contests. The ‘under’ was 5-1 in that stretch.
Texas has seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 in its last seven home games that they were listed as a pup.
vegasinsider.com
N.Y. Yankees (2-2) at Tampa Bay (3-1)
The Yankees look to rebound from a Friday beatdown when they send ace CC Sabathia (0-0, 8.44 ERA) to the hill against the Rays and youngster Wade Davis (2-2, 3.72 ERA in 2009) as this three-game weekend series continues at Tropicana Field.
New York got flattened in Friday night’s opener, losing 9-3 as newly acquired Javier Vazquez got tagged for eight runs (all earned) on eight hits and three walks in just 5 2/3 innings. The onslaught came in just two innings, with the Yanks yielding five runs in the fourth and another four in the sixth. Despite the setback, the defending world champions remain on runs of 54-23 overall, 42-17 in the A.L. East and 40-17 against winning teams.
Tampa Bay is on upswings dating to last season of 9-3 overall, 12-3 in the division, 45-20 at home and 17-5 on Saturday. The Rays’ victory Friday comes after a 9-3 tear by the Yankees in this rivalry, with Tampa still just 8-11 in its last 19 home starts against New York.
Sabathia is coming off a poor showing at Boston in Sunday’s season opener, giving up five runs (all earned) on six hits and two walks in 5 1/3 innings. He blew a 5-1 lead, but didn’t factor in the decision as the Yanks lost 9-7. That followed a dominating stretch to end the 2009 season in which the hefty lefty went 12-2 with a paltry 2.09 ERA in 17 starts (including playoffs), with New York going 15-2 in that span. New York is on further runs behind Sabathia of 20-7 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 11-2 against winning teams and 8-2 on the highway.
Sabathia is 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 15 career starts against Tampa Bay, but he was 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in four starts against the Rays last year. Both losses came at Tropicana by a combined score of 19-6, with the left-hander allowing all six runs (five earned) in a 6-2 loss in July and nine runs (five earned) in a 13-4 pasting at the beginning of October.
Davis got all his major league experience in the final month of 2009 season, with Tampa Bay winning three of his last four starts, in which he went 2-1 with a 2.02 ERA, allowing six runs in 26 2/3 innings. However, the one loss was against the Yanks, a 10-2 home ripping in the regular-season finale, with Davis allowing five runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks in five innings. Including that outing, Davis was 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA in four starts at Tropicana Field.
New York is on a bundle of “over” tears, including 7-1 overall, 8-1-1 on the road, 6-0 against winning teams, 15-2 in Sabathia’s last 17 road starts and 10-1 with Sabathia facing a winning team on the highway. On the flip side, Tampa is on “under” surges of 7-3 overall (5-1 last six) -- with all those games at home and inside the A.L. East – and 8-3 against lefty starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Boston (1-3) at Kansas City (2-2)
The Red Sox, aiming to snap a three-game skid, trot out Josh Beckett (0-0, 9.64 ERA) to face the Royals and reigning Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke (0-0, 1.50 ERA) at Kauffman Stadium.
Boston blew a 3-0 lead Friday night in the opener of this three-game series, giving up a broken-bat, two-run single from Rick Ankiel in the eighth inning for the deciding runs in a 4-3 loss. The Red Sox are still 42-18 in their last 60 games against the A.L. Central, but they are in ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-5 on the road and 2-7 against right-handed starters.
Ankiel also had a solo homer last night for Kansas City, but despite notching their second victory of the season, the Royals remain on a flood of negative streaks, including 2-5 overall, 3-10 against righty starters, 16-35 at home, 54-115 against A.L. East foes and 50-105 on Saturday.
Beckett looks to bounce back from a trying start against the Yankees in Sunday’s season opener. He allowed five runs on five hits (two homers) and three walks, with just one strikeout in 4 2/3 innings, but his teammates got him off the hook with a no-decision as Boston rallied for a 9-7 home victory. Behind Beckett, the Sox are on rolls of 20-9 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 10-2 after five days’ rest and 17-4 against the A.L. Central.
Beckett has a perfect career mark against K.C., going 5-0 with a solid 2.03 ERA in seven starts, winning both his outings last year while posting a suffocating 1.20 ERA. That included a 9-2 rout in Kansas City in September, in which the right-hander allowed 12 hits, but just the two runs and one walk while striking out seven. On the road last year, the right-hander was 7-5 with a 4.13 ERA.
Greinke had a respectable outing in the Royals’ season opener against Detroit, allowing two runs (one earned) on six hits and a walk in six innings, but the bullpen gave up six runs in the seventh inning of an 8-4 home loss. Kansas City is 5-1 in Greinke’s last six starts against losing teams, but has won just three of the righty’s last 15 Saturday outings and one of his last five against the A.L. East.
Greinke is 1-2 with a 3.49 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) against Boston, with the victory coming in his lone start against the Sox last year. In that September contest, he threw six shutout innings, allowing two hits and three walks while striking out five in a 5-1 home victory. At home last year, Greinke was 10-3 with a stout 1.70 ERA in 17 starts
The over is on a 9-4 run for Boston with Beckett on the mound, but othereise the under for the Sox is on upswings of 14-6-1 on Saturday and 5-0 on the highway. The over is 5-2 in K.C.’s last seven games overall and 6-3 in its last nine at home, but with Greinke taking the pill, the under is on sprees of 7-3-1 overall, 6-2-1 at home and 20-8 with the righty going on four days’ rest.
Finally, last night’s contest fell just short of the 9½-run total, but the over is still 7-4 in the last 11 meetings overall and 5-2 in the last seven clashes in Kansas City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS CITY
MLB RoundUp For 4/10
By Dan Bebe
National League
Cubs @ Reds (-130) with a total of 8.5
Mike Fontenot is 7-for-18 off Harang with 3 HR and 7 RBI;
Aramis Ramirez is batting .310 off Harang over the last 5 years, with 3 HR and 7 RBI;
Marlon Byrd is 1-for-3 with 1 HR, Derrek Lee has over 5 HR, Xavier Nady is batting .370 with a HR, Geovany Soto is 5-for-15 with a HR, and Kosuke Fukudome is 6-for-15;
Joey Votto is 8-for-20 off Big Z, and Jay Bruce is 3-for-10 with a HR.
I actually think Zambrano bounces back here at a dog price, and he's always pitched well against the Reds. Lean to Chicago. The ball travels well in the daytime, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 9 or 10 runs put up, going over the total.
Nationals @ Mets (-130) with a total of 9
Ryan Zimmerman is 7-for-20 off Oliver Perez;
John Lannan holds a 3.62 ERA against the Mets;
Perez is a brutal 3-5, 7.14 ERA against the Nats;
Jason Bay is 4-for-7 with 1 HR and 2 RBI off Lannan;
Jeff Francoeur is 11-for-22 with 1 HR and 6 RBI off Lannan.
Francoeur and Bay could change how the Mets hit Lannan, but any time you can get underdog odds against Oliver Perez, you have to at least take a peek. Tiny lean to Washington, and tiny lean to the Over.
Cardinals @ Brewers (-155) with a total of 8.5
Albert Pujols is 3-for-10 with a HR off Gallardo;
Prince Fielder is 4-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Carpenter;
Ryan Braun is 0-for-6 off Carpenter.
I'm honestly a little surprised this total is above 8, given the two pitchers. Gallardo doesn't have great career numbers against the Cards, but a Ryan Ludwick homer did most of the damage. This is a monster value on Carpenter, so I do lean slightly to the Cards, but something feels off about this game. Slight lean to Under, as well.
Phillies (-145) @ Astros with a total of 9.5
Ben Francisco is a perfect 3-for-3 off Felipe Paulino;
Hunter Pence is 3-for-6 off Moyer with 2 HR and 4 RBI.
Hunter Pence might be the difference in this game, believe it or not. There's no chance I lay 145 with Moyer on the road, but can the 'Stros score a run? Slight lean to the home team, no lean on the total.
Dodgers @ Marlins (-150) with a total of 8.5
Andre Ethier is 5-for-10 off Johnson.
Somehow, the Dodgers have given Johnson some trouble, but to me, this line is fair. Pass on the side, pass on the total.
Pirates @ Diamondbacks (-250) with a total of 8.5
Garrett Jones is a perfect 3-for-3 off Danny Haren.
A big, fat "no thank you" to backing Haren at this price, and while he is 3-0 against the Pirates, he has an ERA just over 4 against them. Maybe minimal value with the Pirates, who are starting the year with some confidence, but I'd probably pass. Pass on the total, too.
Padres @ Rockies (-170) with a total of 10
David Eckstein and Tony Gwynn Jr are each 3-for-8 off Hammel;
Nick Hundley is 4-for-7 with a HR off Hammel;
Matt Stairs is 5-for-8 off Hammel with 2 HR and 4 RBI, but will he play?
Ian Stewart homered in 1 of his 2 AB off Latos.
This is actually a pretty good deal for the Padres. Will they win? Maybe, but Hammel struggled like crazy at home last year, which means bullpens will be on the hook. Lean to Padres, and the total is pretty accurate.
Braves (-130) @ Giants with a total of 8.5
Aaron Rowand is batting .471 off Lowe since 2005.
Lowe has decent numbers against San Francisco, presumably from all his time with the Dodgers, and Wellemeyer pitched well in his brief exposure to Atlanta. No real lean on the side, which looks fair, but the total makes me think Wellemeyer pitches better than folks expect. Slight lean to the Under.
American League
Indians @ Tigers (-176) with a total of 9.5
Mitch Talbot has an ERA near 20.00 against Detroit, but LIMITED action;
Shin-Soo Choo is 3-for-8 off Bonderman, Travis Hafner has homered 3 times.
The day I lay 176 with Jeremy Bonderman is the day I quit betting. No lean on the side, as these guys could both give up 4 in the first inning. Slight lean to the Over, but a warm day would help our cause in the Midwest.
Twins (-130) @ White Sox with a total of 9
Joe Mauer is a quiet 6-for-18 off Freddy Garcia, Delmon Young is 1-for-2 with a HR;
Paul Konerko has 3 HR off Baker;
Mark Teahen is 9-for-27, and A.J. Pierzynski is 6-for-20 off Baker.
The White Sox have been able to put up runs against Baker in the past, and it's rare we'll get home dog value in this series. Garcia is a battler, so I think you have to at least peek at the big guy. Slight lean to Sox, slight lean to Over.
Yankees (-145) @ Rays with a total of 9.5
A-Rod accounted for most of the Yanks' damage against Davis the one time they squared off, going 2-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI;
B.J. Upton is 6-for-14 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Sabathia;
Ben Zobrist is 6-for-13 with 1 HR and 4 RBI;
Evan Longoria is 3-for-6 with 2 HR and 4 RBI;
Jason Bartlett is a .314 batter off Sabathia with 1 HR and 3 RBI.
Pretty strong numbers for the Rays off Sabathia, though he's 7-3 against them in his career. Wade Davis is very, very good, and people will learn that. Lean to Tampa Bay, none on the total.
Mariners (-145) @ Rangers with a total of 8.5
Jose Lopez is 3-for-10 and Ichiro is 4-for-9 off Harrison;
Michael Young is a career .346 hitter off Hernandez with 1 HR and 6 RBI;
Vlad Guerrero is batting .302 off King Felix since 2005 with 2 HR and 8 RBI;
Ryan Garko is 3-for-6, Chris Davis is 6-for-20 with a HR, and Nelson Cruz is 7-for-24 with a HR.
I truly wish Matt Harrison inspired more confidence, because Texas can beat Hernandez. "Tilt" towards the home dog, and slight look at the Over, but I'm far from convinced.
Blue Jays @ Orioles (-155) with a total of 9
Alex Gonzalez is 2-for-3 off Hernandez with a HR.
Extremely limited action against one another, but having met Dana Eveland (and, true story, watching him pass gas while his bullpen-mates threw side sessions), I don't have a ton of confidence. He's a trademark 4A type of ballplayer. David Hernandez isn't too impressive either, and -155 is crazy to put on a guy this bad. No lean on the side, lean to the Over.
Red Sox (-120) @ Royals with a total of 7.5
Victor Martinez is a career .400 batter off Greinke from his time with Cleveland, with 1 HR and 8 RBI;
Marco Scutaro is 6-for-13 off Greinke with 4 RBI;
Yuny Betancourt is 6-for-13 off Beckett with 1 HR and 3 RBI;
Mitch Maier is 4-for-9, and Scott Podsednik is 4-for-7 off Beckett.
There seems to be a few numbers to make you think runs will get scored, but Beckett is 5-0, 2.03 against KC in his career, and Greinke has a 2.49 ERA against Boston. Royals bullpen meltdown yet again in this one? Lean to the Over.
Athletics @ Angels (-155) with a total of 8.5
Gabe Gross is 3-for-7 with a HR off Weaver, but that's about it.
Weaver is 3-3, 2.71 ERA against Oakland.
Ben Sheets looked solid in his first game with Oakland at home, how about on the road? This price is too high to back the home team, and not really enough on Sheets for me to take a flier on Oakland. No leans on the side, slight lean to the Under.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins
Athletics at Angels - The Angels are 20-5 since August 20, 2007 at home vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $1330 The Angels are 7-0 OU since June 20, 2009 when Jered Weaver starts as a favorite after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $700 when playing the over.
Pirates at Diamondbacks – The Pirates are 3-29 since April 15, 2004 as a road 170+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $2280 when playing against. The League is 18-2 since September 06, 2009 as a 200+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1320 The Diamondbacks are 12-2 since April 18, 2008 when Dan Haren starts as a favorite after more strike outs than hits allowed and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $955 The Diamondbacks are 10-1-1 OU since June 18, 2008 when Dan Haren starts as a 140+ favorite after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $890 when playing the over.
Braves at Giants – The Giants are 11-2 since May 21, 2006 as a dog after an extra inning win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1225
Nationals at Mets – The Nationals are 3-17 since June 19, 2008 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $1205 when playing against. The Nationals are 1-10 since May 29, 2008 when John Lannan starts on the road after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $880 when playing against.
Yankees at Rays – The Yankees are 8-0-1 OU since June 21, 2009 when CC Sabathia starts as a road 140+ favorite for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.
Cubs at Reds – The Reds are 1-12-1 OU since September 14, 2006 when Aaron Harang starts as a home favorite after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $1080 when playing the under.
Padres at Rockies – The Padres are 1-13 since October 06, 2005 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $1135 when playing against. The Rockies are 11-1 since May 06, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts as a 140+ favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $945
Red Sox at Royals – The League is 14-2 since August 29, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $1200 The Royals are 1-10 since June 19, 2004 when Zack Greinke starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $860 when playing against.
Indians at Tigers - The Indians are 0-12 since September 03, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.
Twins at White Sox - The White Sox are 15-2 since April 18, 2008 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $1330 The Twins are 7-0 OU since July 12, 2008 when Scott Baker starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $700 when playing the over.
Tips and Trends
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Yankees (-150, O/U 9.5): New York will be looking for a bit more today from ace SP C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia was merely average in his opening day start, as he allowed 5 runs in less than 6 innings in Boston. Sabathia has really struggled of late against the Rays, as he went 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA over 4 starts last year. Sabathia allowed 10 earned runs and 7 walks in 2 starts last season at Tropicana Field. Today marks the 1st time this season the Yankees have opened up as the listed favorite. The Yankees enjoy playing on Fieldturf, as they are 9-3 over their past 12 contests on the surface. New York has fared well against the Rays of late, winning 9 of the past 12 contests. After opening with back to back overs, the Yankees have played to the under in each of their past 2 games. The defending champions are looking up at both the Blue Jays and their opponent today in the division standings.
Yankees are 4-0 last 4 games as a road favorite.
Over is 10-2 last 12 games as a road favorite.
Key Injuries - C Francisco Cervelli (hamstring) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Rays: Tampa Bay will be gunning for franchise history today, as they are looking to start 4-1 for the 1st time in history. Tampa Bay will be looking for a win today, as that would mean consecutive series wins to start the season. The Rays have started the season at home, so they would like nothing more than some momentum as they head out on the road in the competitive AL East. The Rays have really struggled as the listed underdog, going 1-10 in their last 11 opportunities. P Wade Davis was the losing pitcher on record the last time he faced the Yankees. Davis allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings last year when facing the Yankees. Davis has been inconsistent in his short career, so he will be anxious to get this season off on a stable start.
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Rays are 14-5 last 19 games as a home underdog.
Under is 14-5 last 19 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - RF Matthew Joyce (elbow) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5