NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (7-3) at L.A. Dodgers (5-5)
The Dodgers get their first crack of the season at two-time reigning N.L. Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (2-0, 1.29 ERA), who will be opposed by knuckleballer Charlie Haeger (0-0, 3.86) as these N.L. West rivals continue their weekend series at Dodger Stadium.
Los Angeles jumped out to leads of 7-0 and 10-3 in Friday’s series opener, then gave up five runs in the ninth inning before holding on for a 10-8 victory. Going back to last year’s National League Championship Series loss to the Phillies, the Dodgers have dropped eight of 13 overall, but nine of those games were on the road. They remain on positive runs of 8-2 at home, 7-1 at home against right-handed starters, 5-1 against division rivals and 25-9 on Saturday.
San Francisco has still won 13 of 17 overall and four of five on the road. Additionally, Bruce Bochy’s club is on runs of 6-2 against the N.L. West and 9-2 versus right-handed starters (5-1 on the road), but the Giants have lost five straight Saturday games.
The Dodgers are now 12-7 against San Francisco since the start of last season 2009.
With Lincecum on the hill, the Giants are on surges of 8-3 against the N.L. West and 6-2 on Saturday, though they have lost five of his last seven road starts. One of those victories came on Opening Day in Houston, with Lincecum pitching seven scoreless innings, scattering four hits, walking none and striking out seven in a 5-2 victory. The right-hander followed that with Sunday’s 6-3 home victory over the Braves, allowing two runs on five hits (one walk) with 10 strikeouts in seven innings.
Lincecum, who has a 17-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through his first two starts, has held four straight opponents and seven of eight to two runs or fewer. However, the one exception came in his final start against the Dodgers last September, when he surrendered five runs on four hits of a 6-2 road loss. It was the first time in his brief career that Lincecum lost to Los Angeles, as he’s now 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in seven appearances (six starts), including 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in four games (three starts) at Dodger Stadium.
Haeger had mixed results at Florida in his 2010 debut Sunday, giving up four runs (three earned) on just three hits, and he notched a career-best 12 strikeouts, he also walked four. The right-hander pitched in six games for Los Angeles last year (three starts) going 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA, and both decisions came at home where he gave up just three runs in 15 innings (1.80 ERA). His experience against the Giants is limited to two relief appearances and he squandered three runs in 1 1/3 innings.
San Francisco is on “over” tears of 6-1-1 overall, 13-5-1 against division rivals, 6-1-2 versus right-handed starters and 4-1-1 with Lincecum starting. Likewise, Los Angeles is on a slew of “over” runs, including 23-8-2 overall, 10-3-1 at home (4-0 this season), 11-3-1 versus N.L. West foes and 7-0 against right-handed starters.
Finally, the last seven Giants-Dodgers battles– and the last five clashes in Los Angeles – have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (6-3) at Boston (4-5)
Rays ace James Shields (0-0, 3.97) is slated to take the ball at Fenway Park tonight as he battles the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz (1-0, 3.60) in the second of a four-game series.
Tampa Bay and Boston were locked in a 1-1 duel entering the bottom of the ninth inning Friday when the rains came and forced the suspension of the contest. The Rays have still won four in a row on the highway since last year and sport additional positive runs of 12-5 overall, 15-5 against the A.L. East, 17-6 on Saturday and 55-22 in the second game of a series. However, they’ve lost 13 of 18 on the road against right-handed starters.
Boston had lost two of three in Minnesota entering Friday’s game. The Red Sox have still won 56 of 82 at Fenway Park and four of five on Saturday, though they’re just 1-8 in their last nine against A.L. East foes.
These teams split their 18-game season series last year, but Boston won the last four in a row. Also, the Rays have lost 53 of their last 69 games at Fenway Park.
Shields gave up two runs on four hits in 5 1/3 innings Sunday against the Yankees, but the Rays’ bullpen imploded once he departed and he got a no-decision in a 7-3 home loss. In his two outings this year (both in Tampa), Shields has allowed five runs in 11 1/3 innings with five walks and 11 strikeouts. Last year, the right-hander was 5-6 with a 4.62 ERA in 15 road outings.
Tampa Bay has lost five of Shields’ last six starts against the Red Sox overall, and for his career, Shields is 3-7 with a 5.32 ERA in 12 games against Boston, including 0-6 with a beefy 8.04 ERA in six contests at Fenway Park. Three of those six losses in Boston came last year, with Shields allowing 13 runs on 25 hits in 17 1/3 innings, and the Sox hitters batted .333.
Buchholz made his 2010 debut Sunday in Kansas City and picked up a win after holding the Royals to three runs (two earned) on seven hits in just five innings. The right-hander delivered six straight quality starts over a month-long span toward the end of last year’s regular season (five earned runs allowed in 41 innings for a 1.09 ERA), but since then, he’s given up 17 runs (all earned) in four starts spanning 18 innings (8.50 ERA), failing to last more than five innings in any of the four games.
Boston is now 10-2 in Buchholz’s last 12 starts overall, as well as 5-2 in his last seven at home and 6-1 in his last seven versus divisional foes. Last year, he went 2-2 with a 4.72 ERA in eight starts at Fenway Park, and he’s faced Tampa Bay four times, going 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA (seven runs allowed in 26 1/3 innings).
Tampa Bay is on “over” runs of 5-1 overall (all versus the A.L. East), 5-1 on the road, 7-3 with Shields starting and 4-1 when Shields works on the highway. Also, Boston has topped the total in four of five at home, four of five on Saturday and five of six against the A.L. East, and the over has cashed in each of Buchholz’s last five starts overall and four of his last five outings at Fenway.
Conversely, the under is 5-0-1 in Shields’ last six starts against the Red Sox and 3-0-1 in his last four at Fenway Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
MLB RoundUp For 4/17
By Dan Bebe
National League
Astros @ Cubs (-135) with a total of N/A
Carlos Lee is 3-for-7 with 1 HR and 3 RBI off Gorzelanny;
Ryan Theriot is 6-for-17 off Oswalt;
This is a heck of a deal on Oswalt, but can the Astros ever hit the ball? Folks talk a great deal about how streaky baseball can be, and the true fact of this matter is that the Astros are not backable right now. There might be a game or two they win, but when a team is going 1-9 or even 3-7, and they're still merely small underdogs on the road, they're not a good enough value yet. It's just a bad starting point from which you may to try to pick winners.
Milwaukee (-165) @ Nationals with a total of 9
Craig Counsell is 4-for-9 off Hernandez with 2 RBI;
Jody Gerut is 2-for-3 with 1 HR and 3 RBI, and Gregg Zaun is 2-for-2 off Hernandez;
Christian Guzman is 3-for-8 off Randy Wolf;
Josh Willingham is 4-for-8 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Wolf.
In his last start, Livan Hernandez looked like he turned back the clock 35 years to his ML debut. Okay, I kid, but he was dominant, and I was flabbergasted. It makes jumping back on Livan look awfully nice, here, but given the fact that this number is just about the same as what we saw in yesterday's Gallardo start, something tells me the Brewers win this one. I know that's a lot to take away from just the opening line, but that's how it is.
Mets @ Cardinals (-120) with a total of 8
Yadier Molina is 4-for-11 off Santana;
Albert Pujols is 6-for-12 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Santana.
We don't have anything to go off with the young Cardinals' starter Jaime Garcia, other than a solid first start this year. Santana has a 2-0, 2.63 ERA against St. Louis in his career, but man, Santana's a dog, here? That's truly disconcerting for those that read into lines. Are the Mets that bad that one of the best pitchers in baseball is a slight underdog to a guy making his second start? I want to see where this line heads overnight before making a final judgment on it.
Giants (-160) @ Dodgers with a total of 7.5
Garret Anderson, Ronnie Belliard, and Blake Dewitt are 2-for-4, and 3-for-6 (2x) off Lincecum.
There may be a time this season to fade The Freak, but somehow off getting pummeled last night, not sure this is the spot. Pass.
Reds @ Pirates - This line is OFF.
Marlins @ Phillies (-115) with a total of 9.5
John Baker is 3-for-7 off Moyer;
Chris Coghlan is 5-for-10 off Moyer;
Wes Helms is 7-for-19 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Moyer;
Ronny Paulino is 8-for-18 off Moyer;
Hanley Ramirez is batting .348 with 4 HR and 7 RBI off Moyer;
Raul Ibanez is 4-for-6 off Nolasco;
Chase Utley is batting .304 off Nolasco with 1 HR and 4 RBI.
Jamie Moyer's career numbers against Florida just don't hold water like they used to, when the Marlins were just a bunch of free-wheeling youngsters. They have grown up, they hit the ball hard, and they did beat Moyer late last year, if memory serves. Ricky Nolasco has sick stuff, but hasn't gotten off to a very strong start this year. If there's a day he steps up, this might very well be the one.
Rockies (-120) @ Braves with a total of 8
Yunel Escobar is 5-for-8 off Jimenez;
Chipper Jones is 4-for-13 off Jimenez with 3 RBI.
The Braves are crushing the ball on offense right now, and Jimenez's 1-3 career mark against Atlanta doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Still, off yesterday's cruising winner, something in my gut tells me the Rockies step back up, and Jimenez finally has some success against Atlanta. Kawakami is sort of a typical Japanese starter - a lot of movement, strange tempo, and battles, but Colorado is disciplined enough where I think they make some headway here.
D'backs @ Padres (-130) with a total of 8
Adam Laroche is 5-for-10 off Correia;
Gerardo Parra is 5-for-12 off Correia;
Matt Stairs is 5-for-15 with a HR off Kris Benson.
I honestly cannot believe Kris Benson is pitching in the Bigs, and I also can't quite believe the Padres are only a -130 favorite here. Does Benson break back into the Bigs with one splendid start, then fall apart, or does he fall apart right out of the gates? I can't help but lean to the established veteran, Correia, but this is a head-scratcher.
American League
Rangers @ Yankees (-170) with a total of 9.5
Ryan Garko is 5-for-12 with 1 HR and 4 RBI off Burnett;
Josh Hamilton is 4-for-11 with 1 HR and 3 RBI off Burnett;
Curtis Granderson is 4-for-6 with 3 HR and 6 RBI off Feldman;
Jorge Posada is 3-for-5 with a HR off Feldman;
Mark Teixeira is 3-for-10 off Feldman, but he's in his typical early offensive funk.
Feldman pitched pretty well against New York last year, and he's started this season strong, as well, but that addition of Curtis Granderson might make a huge difference for the Yanks, given his owning of Feldman. The value is probably on Texas's side, but I'm not sold on this Rangers team just yet.
Angels (-115) @ Blue Jays with a total of 9.5
Bobby Abreu is 3-for-8 off Tallet with 2 RBI;
Hideki Matsui is 10-for-18 off Tallet with 1 HR and 7 RBI;
Juan Rivera is 2-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI.
Saunders has a poor career record against Toronto at 1-3, and he has a 7.36 ERA this season so far. Brian Tallet is 1-0 this year, but has an ERA of 5.68, and a career mark against LAA of 0-1, 7.36 ERA. This one looks ugly on paper, but then these games, for whatever reason, end up as a 3-1 pitchers' duel. I want to back the Angels pretty badly with those offensive numbers against Tallet, but if Saunders gives up 5 runs in 6 innings, that's not going to get it done. Tiny, tiny lean to Angels.
Royals @ Twins (-180) with a total of 9.5
Alberto Callaspo is 5-for-12 with a HR off Blackburn;
David DeJesus is 7-for-15 off Blackburn with a HR;
Jose Guillen is 3-for-7, and Jason Kendall is 3-for-5;
Michael Cuddyer is 7-for-16 off Meche with a HR and 3 RBI;
Joe Mauer is 7-for-20 with 2 HR and 10 RBI;
Justin Morneau is batting .313 off Meche since 2005 with 2 HR and 8 RBI.
Blackburn has just a 1-2 career record against the Royals, but Kansas City's bullpen is simply too awful to back right now. Too high a price to back Blackburn. Pass.
Orioles @ Athletics (-170) with a total of 8
Mark Ellis is 4-for-11 with 3 RBI off Guthrie;
Gabe Gross is 3-for-7 off Guthrie;
Kurt Suzuki is 4-for-7 with a HR and 3 RBI off Guthrie.
Same deal as the Twins/Royals game above. The Orioles can't hit, flat out. They can't. They put a guy on base, and no one can do a thing. Duchscherer looks ready to get back to business after a lost 2009, but at 170, this price is too steep. Pass.
White Sox (-130) @ Indians with a total of 8
Grady Sizemore is a perfect 3-for-3 off Peavy;
Austin Kearns is 3-for-8 off Peavy.
Despite 20 career decisions against the White Sox, Westbook doesn't have many numbers against the current crop. Peavy at just -130 is certainly reflective of his 8.44 ERA this year, and while I'd love to say he steps up and dominates, the Indians have been getting stunning work from their starters the last couple games, and the White Sox have become a very home-friendly team.
Rays @ Red Sox (-128) with a total of 9
In limited action, B.J. Upton is 2-for-4 off Buccholz and Ben Zobrist is 2-for-5;
J.D. Drew is 10-for-24 off Shields with 2 HR and 6 RBI;
Mike Lowell is 9-for-25 off Shields;
David Ortiz is batting .391 off Shields since 2005 with 2 HR and 6 RBI;
Dustin Pedroia is batting .455 off Shields with a HR.
I think James Shields' name is bringing this line down to a fairly buyable price. Shields is 3-7 career against Boston, and this is just not a team he enjoys facing. Buccholz is 2-1 against the Rays in limited exposure, with a 2.39 ERA. Is this a sucker bet? I don't think such a thing exists, but let's watch the line before pulling any sort of trigger.
Tigers (-135) @ Mariners with a total of 7.5
Ryan Raburn is 3-for-5 with 2 HR off Rowland-Smith;
Milton Bradley is 3-for-6 off Verlander;
Ichiro is batting .367 off Verlander since '05 with 1 HR and 5 RBI.
Verlander has an ERA of 9 so far this year, but is 6-3 against the Mariners, and coming off getting shellacked last night, Detroit is going to want to bounce back. This might be worth thinking about the small favorite, though Rowland-Smith has decent stuff, and if the Tigers play on the road this year like they did in 2009, backing them away from home won't ever be a good call. Slight lean to Detroit, here.