Saturday's Best MLB Bets
Atlanta Braves (-154, 8) at Washington Nationals
Tommy Hanson has all the tools to be an elite pitcher. Will the young hard-throwing righthander finally put everything together and experience a breakout season? Not today, not against the always savvy John Lannan, who takes the mound for the Nationals.
The lefthander has been solid over the last three years against the Braves, going 5-4 with 3.39 ERA in 10 starts. He’s allowed only one homer to the Braves, which means Atlanta will likely have to string together hits. That’s something the Braves' offense has struggled to do in the past against Lannan.
Hanson went 0-1 in two starts against the Nationals last season. At more than a 150 favorite, the value here is on Lannan and the Nats.
Pick: Nationals
San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals (-148, 8)
The Padres don’t win in St. Louis. That’s what made Thursday’s come-from-behind 5-3 win all the more surprising. The 11-inning win improved San Diego to a miserable 10-34 in its last 44 games in St. Louis.
Expect things to go back to normal Saturday, when the Cardinals send righthander Jake Westbrook to the mound against Padres lefthander Clayton Richard.
Matt Holliday’s out for the Cards, but his replacements--Jon Jay and Allen Craig--were stars in spring training. Plus, it’s hard to imagine Albert Pujols will start the season with two straight hitless games. Pujols went 0-for-5, hitting into the three double plays, in Thursday’s loss.
Pick: Cardinals
Cubs, Pirates continue series
By: Michael Robinson
The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates play the middle match of their three-game series Saturday at Wrigley Field. The first pitch for these NL Central Division rivals is scheduled for 10:05 a.m. (PT)
The Cubs haven’t won the World Series since 1908 and oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com aren’t enthused about their prospects. They’re plus 4,000 to break their century-long jinx, with Pittsburgh far worse at plus 15,000.
Chicago (plus 350) is given a decent chance to win the mediocre NL Central, trailing Cincinnati (plus 185), St. Louis (plus 200) and Milwaukee (plus 205). Houston (plus 2000) and Pittsburgh (plus 3500) are long shots.
The Cubs had a dismal 2010 campaign at 75-87, including just 35-46 at home. Manager Mike Quade took over for Lou Piniella during last summer and finished with a 24-13 record. Despite that, Quade is already on the hot seat with fans unhappy that former second baseman Ryne Sandberg was passed over for the permanent job this offseason.
Quade should feel pretty good with Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza and Randy Wells comprising the top-4 in the rotation. The bullpen should also be decent if Kerry Wood can help closer Carlos Marmol.
The offense is the big question after finishing 10th in the NL in runs scored last year (685) and counting on first baseman Carlos Pena to replace Derrek Lee.
Zambrano finished with a decent 11-6 record last year (3.33 ERA), but that tells just part of the story. He was awful in his first four starts (7.45 ERA) before being shifted to the bullpen and later getting suspended.
The 29-year-old righty did finish very strong in the second half, going 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA in 14 appearances (11 starts). He needs to show his newfound maturity immediately, but he can’t be too happy seeing his string of six-straight Opening Day starts end.
Zambrano finished last year with a 2.10 ERA at home, compared to 4.14 away. He has struggled in day games (10-9, 5.15 ERA) over the last three years compared to going 24-10 with a 2.94 ERA at night.
Zambrano made one start against the Pirates last year, throwing 5 1/3 scoreless innings in a 14-2 home win last August. He’s 12-8 with a 4.02 ERA lifetime against them.
The ‘over’ is 7-1 in Zambrano’s last eight starts against Pittsburgh.
The Pirates (57-105) finished with the worst record in baseball last year, four games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Despite the almost two decades of futility, there are some bright spots. Young hitters Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Jose Tabata should only get better. There’s nowhere to go but up after finishing last in runs scored (587).
Saturday’s starter will be Paul Maholm. The 28-year-old lefty has been a durable pitcher the last five years, averaging over 30 starts. Unfortunately, his career ERA is just 4.48, including going 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA last season.
Maholm doesn’t strikeout a lot of guys (4.85 rate last year), and right-handed hitters batted .316 off him. Pittsburgh lost his last six road starts and he finished 2-6 with a 4.81 ERA away from home.
Maholm pitched well in three of his four starts against Chicago (3-1, 5.01 ERA). He got bombed in during his last outing at Wrigley on Aug. 30 against Zambrano, allowing eight earned runs over 3 1/3 innings. He pitched very well in his other two starts in Chicago (2-0, 1.93 ERA).
Pittsburgh went 10-5 against Chicago last year, 5-4 on the road. That latter record is surprising as the Pirates only won 17 away games all year (17-64 mark).
The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Chicago.
Pittsburgh starting catcher Chris Snyder is on the DL with a back injury, so Ryan Doumit will get the call behind the plate.
The weather should be clear and around 50 degrees. This series concludes Sunday with the newly acquired Garza against Ross Ohlendorf.
Reds host Brewers in middle game
By: SBG Global
The Milwaukee Brewers will try and put Thursday’s season-opening loss behind them as they play the second baseball betting game of a three-game set in Cincinnati on Saturday night.
The Brewers blew a 6-3 lead in the ninth inning and lost their season opener, 7-6, as Ramon Hernandez hit a two-out, three run home run to win it for the Reds. It was not the way the Brewers wanted to start the season, but it was nothing new for a Reds team that won their first six games last year in walk-off fashion. Milwaukee has not had much success at Cincinnati, losing nine of the last 10 games.
Shaun Marcum vs. Travis Wood
The pitching matchup for Saturday has Milwaukee going with Shaun Marcum, who the Brewers acquired in the off-season from Toronto. They were counting on a one-two rotation of Zack Greinke and Marcum to lead them this MLB betting season, but Greinke is on the DL and Marcum was not totally healthy in the spring.
Marcum skipped his next-to-last spring start with shoulder stiffness, but is said to be ready for Saturday’s start.
The Reds have so many injuries in their starting rotation that Travis Wood is now up to the No. 2 position in the rotation. He probably would have been the fifth starter without all of the injury issues.
Wood had a good rookie season last year, registering a 3.51 ERA in his 17 starts. He also pitched well against the Brewers, as he threw just over 11 innings with a record of 1-0 and an ERA of 3.97.
The betting stats for Saturday’s game appear below.
The Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. the National League Central. The Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 Saturday games. The Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday games.
The Reds are 17-7 in their last 24 home games. The Reds are 43-21 in their last 64 vs. the National League Central. The Reds are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Reds are 0-5 in Wood’s last 5 starts.
The ‘under’ is 7-3-1 in the Brewers last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The ‘under’ is 15-7-1 in the Reds last 23 home games. The ‘under’ is 2-0-2 in Wood’s last 4 starts overall.