Fox Saturday Baseball
By Judd Hall
This week’s edition of Fox Saturday Baseball is the domain of the American League with both tilts emanating out of the Junior Circuit. Seattle heads to the Windy City for a showdown with the White Sox. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue their series with the Halos out in the OC.
Mariners at White Sox – 4:00 p.m. EDT
Most betting shops have posted the White Sox as $1.14 home favorites (risk $114 to win $100) with a total of nine. Gamblers can take the M’s for a nice plus-133 return (risk $100 to win $133).
Seattle (9-7, +230) was supposed to be the team to challenge the Angels for AL West supremacy. Well, the M’s are starting to look like that team the experts had expected. The Mariners are coming into this series having won seven of their last eight games. Even bettor for the gambling public is that they covered the run line in seven of those eight tests as well.
The Mariners are going to send Doug Fister (2-1, 1.42) out to the mound to start the second game of this three-game set. Fister (rough name to have when growing up) has shined in his last two starts, giving up just one earned run in 15 innings of work. Plus, he struck out seven while issuing one walk in those tilts at home against the Orioles and Athletics. Fister’s lone setback came on the road, where he lasted only four innings in a 6-2 decision in Oakland on April 8.
Fister has actually failed to show up when away from Safeco Field in his brief career. In five career road starts, he is 0-3 with an earned run average of 4.72. Compare that to a 5-2 mark and 2.87 ERA in eight home starts.
Chicago (4-9, -639) is looking for anything to make itself feel better right now after the debacle they just faced with the Rays in town. The White Sox won the series opener against Tampa Bay, but lost the final two games by a combined score of 22-2. And you know somewhere in U.S. Cellular Field, Ozzie Guillen has elevated himself to DEFCON 2.
The White Sox will be look to Freddy Garcia (0-2, 8.10) to turn around their fortunes. In his last start of the season, Garcia was rocked for seven earned runs in three innings of work on the road against the Blue Jays in a 7-3 loss on April 15. We shouldn’t be shocked by this outcome since his teams are 2-4 in his last six road tests. It doesn’t get better at home for Garcia, evidenced by a 2-5 record in his last seven home dates.
The Pale Hose have seen the ‘under’ go 5-3-1 at home this year. However, those last two games against the Rays both saw the ‘over’ cash tickets.
Seattle hasn’t shown too much on totals away from home with a 3-3-1 mark in seven road tilts.
The M’s have not done well on the road against AL Central clubs over the last two seasons, evidenced by an 18-32 record. That includes a 2-5 mark in their last seven games in this situation.
The head-to-head series of a year ago was owned by the Mariners, but barely as they went 5-4. Chicago has gone 5-1 in its last six home fixtures against Seattle. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in those contests.
Yankees at Angels – 4:00 p.m. EDT
Good times can’t keep going for everyone. Just ask the Yankees for proof of that right now. New York (11-4, +575) had a six-game win streak snapped by a 4-2 defeat against the A’s as a $1.75 road favorite on Thursday. As bad as that was, the fact that they’ve won all three of road series so far is pretty impressive.
New York will give the starting duties to Andy Pettitte (2-0, 1.35) on Saturday afternoon. Not a bad choice for the Yanks have won all three of his starts this season. In his last start, Pettitte went eight strong innings, giving up two earned runs en route to a 5-2 win over the Ranger at home on April 18.
Los Angeles (8-9, -237) are getting closer to breaking even, but not quite there yet. The Angels enter the series with the defending champs having lost two straight to Detroit. Bettors have taken note to play the ‘under’ recently with the Halos, as it has cashed in six of their last nine contests.
Joel Pineiro (2-1, 1.77) will be tasked with starting Game 2 against the Yanks. This isn’t a bad spot for the Angels to be tossing their No. 4 starter into the fray. Pineiro has won his last two starts with one of them coming at New York on April 14 (7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7K, 0BB).
The sportsbooks have installed the Yankees as $1.08 road favorites with a total of 9 ½. You can take the Halos to win for a plus-102 return.
Los Angeles does have the advantage of winning four of its last six regular season battles with the Bronx Bombers at home.
The ‘over’ is 6-3 in New York’s road games this season. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in the Yankees’ past two road tests and six times in their last eight games.
The Angels are 8-2 in their last 10 games as home pups to AL East foes, with the ‘over’ going 6-3-1. Tighten that up to facing left-handers and they’re 3-1, with two of those three wins coming against the Yanks.
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St. Louis (10-6) at San Francisco (9-7)
Adam Wainwright (3-0, 1.50 ERA) goes after his fourth victory on the young season when he leads the Cardinals against Barry Zito (2-0, 1.86) and the Giants in the middle game of a weekend series at AT&T Park.
Behind yet another dominating pitching effort from ace Tim Lincecum, San Francisco rolled to a 4-1 victory Friday, snapping a four-game losing skid. The Giants offense, which was averaging 6.2 runs through the first 11 games of 2010, has generated a combined nine runs during their 1-4 slump. Bruce Bochy’s squad has also dropped five of six on Saturday, but it is on positive streaks of 9-2 at home, 7-1 against the N.L. Central and 10-4 versus right-handed starters
The Cardinals had arrived in the Bay Area on a 3-1 roll, tallying 25 runs in the process. However, St. Louis has now lost six of eight to N.L. West foes, five of seven against left-handed starters and four straight on the road versus southpaws.
The Giants barely won the season series from St. Louis last year, taking four of seven meetings, and San Francisco is 7-3 in the last 10 clashes (3-1 in the last four at AT&T Park).
Wainwright is coming off his first complete game of the season, knocking off the Mets 5-3 at home on Sunday. The veteran right-hander allowed three runs (two earned) on four hits and two walks while striking out nine. Going back to early September, Wainwright has delivered nine straight quality starts – at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or fewer allowed – and he’s surrendered two earned runs or less in eight of those nine contests. During this stretch, Wainwright has amassed 72 strikeouts against just 13 walks in 67 innings.
With Wainwright on the mound, the hill, the Cardinals are on incredible runs of 40-16 overall, 21-6 on the road, 25-5 against winning teams and 9-3 on Saturday. In his only road outing this season, he pitched St. Louis to a 6-3 win at Cincinnati, allowing two runs on three hits in seven innings, and he’s now allowed five earned runs in his last four road starts covering 30 innings (1.50 ERA). Also, Wainwright is 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA in five lifetime appearances (three starts) against the Giants, but the one victory came at home last July when he scattered six hits and three walks while striking out 12 in a 2-1 triumph.
Zito pitched a gem on Sunday in Los Angeles, holding the Dodgers to a run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings, and though he departed with a 1-0 lead, the bullpen immediately squandered it, surrendering a two-run homer to pinch-hitter Manny Ramirez, and the Giants fell, 2-1. All three of Zito’s starts have been quality efforts this season, including a 9-3 win over the Pirates in his only home outing (three runs allowed in six innings).
San Francisco has won five of Zito’s last seven starts overall, six of his last eight at home and 14 of 17 when he pitches in the second game of a series, but the Giants are 7-19 in Zito’s last 26 against the N.L. Central. That includes four losses to the Cardinals, against whom Zito is 0-4 with a 5.56 ERA in five starts (four with San Francisco, one with Oakland). The Cardinals are batting a robust .339 all-time against the Las Vegas native.
The Cardinals remain on “under” runs of 10-4 overall, 4-1 against left-handed starters and 3-0-1 on Saturday. However, with Wainwright pitching, the over is on surges of 5-2 overall, 13-6-2 on the road and 8-3-1 on Saturday.
The Giants also carry “under” trends of 5-0 overall, 19-7-3 versus the N.L. Central, 6-1-1 when Zito faces N.L. Central opponents and 3-0-1 when Zito works on Saturday. However, San Francisco is also on “over” runs of 5-2-1 at home and 7-3-2 against right-handed starters.
Finally, nine of the last 14 battles between these teams, including five of the last seven in San Francisco, have jumped over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and OVER
MLB RoundUp For 4/24
By Dan Bebe
National League
Dodgers (-160) @ Nationals with a total of 9.5
Garret Anderson is 2-for-3 with a HR off Stammen;
Adam Dunn is 3-for-5 with a HR off Kershaw;
Ryan Zimmerman is 3-for-7 with an RBI off Kershaw;
Wil Nieves and Christian Guzman are each 2-for-3 off Kershaw, Guzman with a HR.
Dodgers have not shown any ability to win on the road yet this year, but Kershaw is that one starter that's actually doing his job getting people out. There are a lot of Dodgers I would fade on the road, but Kershaw's not the one, at least not right now. The loss of Manny Ramirez to a calf strain puts a little damper on this powerhouse offense. Pass.
Braves (-145) @ Mets with a total of 8.5
Chipper Jones is 2-for-2 off Niese;
Nate McLouth is 2-for-3 with an RBI off Niese;
David Wright is 6-for-20 with a HR and 3 RBI off Jurrjens;
Luis Castillo is 5-for-16 off Jurrjens.
Jair is off to a very poor start this season, but really, we know how good he is, and he'll get back there, no question. He's 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA lifetime against the Mets, and Niese, a young lefty, is just starting to find his way. The Mets are pitching very well right now, so laying 145 on a struggling star is a little rich for my blood.
Marlins (N/A) @ Rockies with a total of N/A
Brad Hawpe is 3-for-8 off Nolasco;
Troy Tulowitzki is 2-for-4 with a HR off Nolasco.
The problem with backing even a stud like Nolasco at Coors Field is that the bullpens are ALWAYS important here. Whether they end up throwing 5 innings in this game, the next, the one after, eventually you need a reliable pen. This field is just so huge that guys are inevitably going to get on base, and pitchers aren't going to go as deep as usual. That's why, despite Nolasco being the clear superior starter, the Rockies are more than in this game, and might even be considered a value. Colorado plays great ball at home, and I actually think that if Smith can turn in 5 marginal innings, they've got a shot.
Marlins @ Rockies (-150) with a total of 10
Chris Coghlan is 2-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBI off Cook;
Hanley Ramirez is 6-for-12 with a HR and 2 RBI;
Cody Ross is 4-for-9 with a HR and 4 RBI off Cook;
Wes Helms is 2-for-3, Mike Lamb is 3-for-6, Ronny Paulino is 2-for-3, and Dan Uggla is 2-for-6 with 2 RBI off Cook;
Jason Giambi is 5-for-11 with a HR off Robertson since '05.
As much as I liked the Rockies against the overvalued Nolasco yesterday, I actually kind of like Robertson against the overvalued Cook today. Cook is a miserable 2-3, 6.83 ERA lifetime against the Marlins, and Florida can definitely hit. Can they hold the Rockies to 4-5 runs? That's what it'll likely take.
Pirates @ Astros C. Jakubauskus vs. W. Rodriguez;
Thanks to player turnover, the current Pirates are not the same Pirates that have given Wandy fits in his brief career. I would love nothing more than to get some monster value going against Wandy, but the Pirates are struggling, and Houston is just finally starting to get some life. Big value or no big value, we're not volume bettors, so this one is off the board.
Cubs (-120) @ Brewers with a total of 9
Marlon Byrd is 4-for-12 off Davis with 3 RBI;
Xavier Nady is 6-for-19 with a HR and 4 RBI off Davis;
Ryan Theriot is 5-for-16, and Aramis Ramirez has 2 HR off Davis since '05;
Ryan Braun is 7-for-16 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Lilly;
Prince Fielder is 8-for-18 with a HR and 2 RBI off Lilly;
Carlos Gomez and Casey McGehee are each 2-for-3 off Lilly.
In his first game off the DL, Lilly is favored on the road? That's a little suspect. Doug Davis is off to a horrendous start this year, but he's been okay against the Cubs throughout his career. Lean to Milwaukee.
Phillies (-120) @ D'backs with a total of 11
Ross Gload is 2-for-4 off Kennedy;
Mark Reynolds is 2-for-2 off Figueroa with 2 HR and 3 RBI;
Gerardo Parra is 2-for-2 off Figueroa.
Look at that total. Yikes. Nelson Figueroa, a career 0-2, 8.68 ERA against the D'backs, and filling in for the injured J.A. Happ, and Ian Kennedy's underachieving on the other side. I don't know if I can trust Kennedy to keep the D'backs in it, but when this many runs are expected, you can usually take the dog and hope for the best. Teeny, tiny lean to D'backs, but we're talking awfully small.
Cardinals (-155) @ Giants with a total of 7
Felipe Lopez is 4-for-13 with a HR off Zito;
Ryan Ludwick is 4-for-11 with 2 RBI off Zito;
Albert Pujols is 4-for-8 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Zito since '05;
Brendan Ryan is 6-for-10 off Zito;
Skip Schumaker is 5-for-9 off Zito with 2 RBI;
Edgar Renteria is 4-for-12 off Wainwright.
This might seem like a steep price to pay on the road against a Zito that has been pitching very, very well this season, but I wonder if there's a reason for it. Zito has never had any success against the Cardinals, and off facing Lincecum last night, the Cardinals might be happy to look at anything else on the hill.
American League
Indians @ Athletics (-150) with a total of 8
Russell Branyan is 2-for-5 with a HR and an RBI off Anderson;
Daric Barton is 2-for-5 with 3 RBI off Carmona;
Rajai Davis is 2-for-4 with an RBI off Carmona;
Gabe Gross is 3-for-5 with 3 RBI off Carmona;
Kurt Suzuki is 2-for-6 with a HR and 3 RBI off Carmona.
This line is probably about right, as Anderson is going to be a force in this League for a while, and while Carmona has made huge strides, the quick A's should give him some trouble, at least a little. In actuality, the under might not be an insane wager, here, if indeed Carmona can use the spacious ballpark to his advantage.
Yankees (-115) @ Angels with a total of 9
Robinson Cano was 3-for-7 off Pineiro before this season;
Mark Teixeira was 6-for-18 with a HR and 6 RBI off Pineiro before this year;
Erick Aybar was 7-for-16 off Pettitte with 2 RBI;
Mike Napoli was 5-for-9 off Pettitte.
Andy Pettitte is rolling so far in 2010, posting a 2-0 record and 1.35 ERA, and already pitched well against the Halos once this year. Pineiro has been a nice sign for the Angels so far, going 2-1, 1.77 ERA so far this year. That total of 9 seems to be looking for money on the under, and I happen to think this should be a good game, so let's keep our eye on the numbers here.
Mariners @ White Sox (-110) with a total of 8.5
Eric Byrnes is 4-for-11 with a HR off Garcia;
Ken Griffey is 3-for-8 with a HR off Garcia since '05;
Ichiro is 6-for-18 with a HR and 2 RBI off Garcia since '05;
Mike Sweeney is 7-for-18 with 2 HR and 6 RBI since '05.
Doug Fister is off to a very fine start this year, but can his success continue in Chicago? Considering Freddy Garcia's dismal numbers against the Mariners over his career, you have to at least take a peek at Seattle. I guess the concern is that Garcia has not only been bad against Seattle, but bad this year, so there isn't a ton of value taking the Mariners at close to standard juice.
Blue Jays @ Rays (-135) with a total of 8.5
Adam Lind is 4-for-8 off Niemann;
Ben Zobrist is 3-for-5 off Romero.
Considering the success of both of these pitchers against one another (though Niemann had slightly more trouble with Toronto), I'm surprised to see this line so low for the highly valued Rays. This line is either a tremendous value on a strong Tampa team, or a little fishy. I love what Romero's brought to the table so far, and it's up to us to decide if he's getting the right amount of credit, or too much.
Orioles @ Red Sox (-200) with a total of 9
Julio Lugo is 4-for-6 off Lackey;
Miguel Tejada is 6-for-18 off Lackey since '05;
Luke Scott is 2-for-5 with a pair of HR off Lackey;
Marco Scutaro is 1-for-2 with a HR off Matusz.
Not much information on that Boston side, since most folks are really getting their first taste of Matusz. I'm not going to advocate backing a +190 underdog, and Lackey's 8-3 career mark against Baltimore makes me think that most of those numbers against him have led to runners left on base. Pass.
Twins (-130) @ Royals with a total of 9.5
Orlando Hudson was 3-for-4 off Hochevar before this season;
Jason Kubel went 4-for-10 off Hochevar before this year with 2 HR and 6 RBI;
Alberto Callaspo had some success off Blackburn in the past, going 5-for-12 with a HR;
David DeJesus was 7-for-15 in the past with a HR off Blackburn.
Each pitcher started a game that their team won, the last time these two clubs met. Hochevar beat Carl Pavano with 6 innings of solid work, and Blackburn escaped with a 6-5 win for his team, facing Gil Meche in this one. Head-to-head, Hochevar had the better start, but does that repeat itself? This ultra-low line makes me think that yes, it does. Slight lean to Royals to ride Hochevar's solid start.
Tigers @ Rangers (N/A) with a total of N/A
Miguel Cabrera is 2-for-5 off Feldman;
Adam Everett is 3-for-8 off Feldman;
Ryan Garko is 3-for-6 with a HR and 6 RBI off Dontrelle.
If the Tigers were any good at all on the road, I'd say there's some value in fading Feldman here, since he's really on track to have his "down" year after last year's monster success. Let's wait and find a better time. Pass. Side note: it's good to see the D-Train having some marginal success and getting some of his pitches over the dish.