Saturday's Best MLB Bets
Philadelphia Phillies (-113) at Atlanta Braves
Roy Oswalt vs. Brandon Beachy – that’s all you need to know.
Beachy, a rookie righthander, pitched well in his debut, limiting the Brewers’ powerful lineup to just one run on four hits on Monday. But consistency, as always, is a big question mark for any rookie pitcher. And now the Phillies will have a little tape on him and will be looking to expose any flaws in Beachy’s game.
Getting Oswalt, who has been solid against the Braves over his career, at less than -120 is a steal.
Pick: Phillies
Colorado Rockies (-103) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Rockies have started the season as one of several undervalued teams. They hand the ball to former No. 2-overall pick Greg Reynolds to take on the Pirates’ always hittable Charlie Morton on Saturday.
Reynolds, a 6-7, 225-pound righthander, will be making his MLB debut, but this kid has all the tools to be an instant hit in the Bigs. Plus, betting against the Pirates is never a bad decision, especially against Morton.
Morton pitched well hi his season-debut, picking up the win after allowing only one run on three hits in six innings against St. Louis on Monday. He did walk five batters, which has been an issue throughout his career. Can he follow it up with a second straight strong outing? It won't be easy.
The seven current Rockies who have faced Morton are hitting a combined .467 against him.
Pick: Rockies
Chicago Cubs battle Milwaukee Brewers
By: SBG Global
The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers play the second baseball betting game of their three-game set on Saturday night and MLB Network will be televising the game. The pitching matchup has right-hander Matt Garza going for the Cubs while the Brewers counter with left-hander Chris Narveson.
Milwaukee started the season poorly getting swept at Cincinnati, but the Brewers have played better on this current homestand. This will be the sixth game of a 7-game homestand that ends on Sunday.
The Cubs started the season by splitting their first six games at home. This game is the second of a 9-game road trip for Chicago.
Garza was in line for the win in his first start of the MLB betting season for the Cubs last Sunday, but closer Carlos Marmol blew the save and the Cubs lost 5-4 to the Pirates. Garza had a weird line as he struck out a career-high 12 batters but he also gave up a career-high 12 hits, all of which were singles.
The 12 strikeouts were the most ever by a Cubs pitcher in his first start with the team.
Narveson had a similar fate as Garza in his first start of the season. He threw six scoreless innings on Monday against the Braves before Takashi Saito blew a 1-0 lead and the Brewers lost 2-1 to the Braves on Monday. Narveson is a perfect 3-0 in his career against the Cubs with a 3.66 ERA.
Before this series began, the Cubs had won 11 of the last 20 games between the two teams. It has been somewhat of a road-team series as Chicago has won six of the last 10 in Milwaukee.
The games have also been low scoring for the most part with the 'under' going 6-3-1 in the last 10 at Milwaukee, including the final three last betting season.
The Cubs have had a lot of success recently against left-handers, winning eight of their last nine. Five of their last seven games vs. southpaws have gone 'over' the total.
Milwaukee goes the other way when facing a right-handed starter as the 'under' is 16-6 in the Brewers' last 22 games against a righty.
Florida Marlins and Astros clash in Houston
By: Stephen Nover
Just know this when betting on the Florida Marlins: They have some very talented players such as Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson and Mike Stanton, but they’re bad defensively and also prone to mental mistakes.
All of this makes the Marlins a frustrating team to back. But at least they’re not the Houston Astros.
The Astros have the worst record in the National League. They entered their three-game home series against Florida batting .214 and with an on-base percentage of .273.
Game 2 of the three-game set at Minute Maid Park is Saturday at 4:05 p.m. PT with Florida’s Javier Vazquez opposing Bud Norris.
There are a number of ‘under’ trends going into this series, including the ‘under’ being 13-6-1 in Houston’s past 20 home contests and Florida going below the total in its last six away matchups.
But based on the weather forecast and how poorly Vazquez and Norris fared in their first starts of the season, there could be a lot of runs scored even with Houston’s weak offense that has averaged 3.3 runs in its first six games and a league-low two homers.
Temperatures in the 80s with 14 mph winds blowing out are forecast.
That’s bad news for Vazquez and Norris, who combined to give up nine earned runs in 6 1/3 innings during their opening outings. They each surrendered two homers.
Vazquez is a 34-year-old high strikeout pitcher who appears on the downside of his career after turning in a 5.32 ERA last year with the New York Yankees. He lost 9-2 to the New York Mets last Sunday as a 125 home favorite against R.A. Dickey. The combined 11 runs went ‘over’ the 8½-run total.
A 13-year veteran who went 10-10 last year after a 15-10 season in 2009 for Atlanta, Vazquez may not have to deal with speedy Astros leadoff hitter Michael Bourn. The Houston center fielder is nursing a sore groin.
Norris also is a big strikeout pitcher, too. His strikeout percentage has been in the top 10 during the past two seasons. The 26-year-old third-year right-hander, though, gives up too many hits and walks. He was 9-10 last year with a 4.92 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
Norris lost 7-3 to Roy Oswalt and NL East Division champion Philadelphia this past Sunday as a 185 road ‘dog. The combined 10 runs went ‘over’ the eight-run total.
The Astros were the last National League team to win a game after dropping their first five games. Still, that’s an improvement from 2010 when they opened 0-8. Houston also had to face Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Oswalt in their first three games followed by a three-game series against the defending NL Central Division champion Reds.
Houston came into this series having won 21 of its past 31 at Minute Maid Park. The Marlins have lost the past five times they’ve faced a right-handed starter on the road. The Marlins also entered this season having dropped four of their last five road games to the Astros.
Florida has only three homers during its first six games. That total should increase with outfielder Stanton due back. He missed five consecutive starts after straining a hamstring in the Marlins’ first game. Stanton slugged 22 homers and drove in 59 runs in only 359 at bats as a 20-year-old rookie last year.
The Marlins have received outstanding bullpen work, compiling a 1.77 ERA through five games. Florida relievers had a scoreless string of 12 2/3 innings going in their previous home series against Washington before it snapped this past Thursday in an extra-inning loss to the Nationals.
This is the Astros’ second of a 10-game homestand with the Cubs and Padres following Florida into town. The Marlins go on to play three games at Atlanta and three games at Philadelphia following Sunday’s finale of this series.
MLB Betting Preview: Indians at Seattle Mariners
By: David Schwab
The surprising Cleveland Indians, fresh off a three-game sweep of Boston, will try and win their second straight series when they take on the Seattle Mariners this Saturday night in the second of a three-game weekend set.
Game time from Safeco Field in Seattle is set for 6:10 p.m. (PT) and it will be available on MLB.TV. The weather forecast for Saturday night is not great with a 30 percent chance of showers and temperatures in upper 40s, so expect the roof to be shut.
Sportsinteraction.com listed Cleveland at plus 1800 to win the AL Central this season, but do not tell that to the Indians after a 4-2 start has them tied with Chicago for the early lead in the division. Granted, 156 games remain on the schedule, but so far Cleveland has been solid at the plate with 32 runs and a team batting average of .264.
The Indians, however, have been less impressive on the mound with a 4.83 team ERA.
Right-hander Justin Masterson will make his second start of the season for Cleveland on Saturday. He was solid in his first outing of the year with a win against the White Sox. Masterson went seven full innings and gave up seven hits and one earned run to get the decision.
Last year he went 6-13 with a 4.70 ERA in 29 starts and had a WHIP of 1.5. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.16 in his career against the Mariners.
Seattle has held true to its plus 2000 odds to win the AL West with a 2-4 start that has it tied with Oakland for last place in the division. There is still a long way to go, but some of the same problems that plagued this team last season are already starting to rear their ugly head this year.
Mariners pitching has been respectable but nothing special with a team ERA of 3.78, and the lineup has struggled at the plate with a .233 team batting average. Their 21 runs scored is ranked 11th in the American League.
Doug Fister will be on the mound for Seattle in his second start of the year. He got smacked around by the Athletics in his first start; giving up eight hits and two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work.
He was 6-14 in 2010 with a 4.11 ERA and a WHIP of 1.28 in 28 starts. Fister has a career ERA of 3.64 at Safeco Field versus 4.86 on the road and is 0-1 with an ERA of 4.63 against Cleveland.
Head-to-head, the Indians have won three of the last five games against the M's, but the series is tied at two games apiece in the last four games in Seattle. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the last nine meetings.
Masterson lasted six innings in his only start against Seattle last season and gave up just one hit and no earned runs in a 9-1 romp. Fister lost his only start against the Indians after giving up seven hits and four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.
Cleveland should come into this game as a slight road underdog, but remains a solid pick with the edge in both pitching and hitting tilting in their favor against the Mariners.
Saturday's MLB Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
The marathon MLB season is only in its early stages, but the Yankees and Phillies would love nothing more than to start developing some separation between their expected challengers, the Red Sox and Braves, respectively. Let’s take a look at the Saturday afternoon matchups (1:10 p.m. Eastern) between these division rivals.
Phillies at Braves
Philadelphia (5-1, +319) swept Houston in a three-game series to open the season. Next, the Phillies dropped a series opener against the Mets before taking the final two games of the three-game set at home.
On Thursday, Charlie Manuel’s team thumped New York by an 11-0 count as an expensive favorite. Wilson Valdez went 4-for-4 with a pair of doubles, three runs scored and three runs batted in. Veteran third baseman Placido Palanco had a pair of hits and four RBIs. Roy Halladay (1-0, 0-69 ERA) threw seven scoreless innings, scattering six hits while fanning seven batters.
Atlanta (3-4, -148) scored just eight runs in a four-game series at Milwaukee that wrapped up Thursday afternoon at Miller Park. After winning Monday’s lid-lifter 2-1 over the Brewers thanks to an eighth-inning rally, the Braves dropped three in a row, including Thursday’s 4-2 decision. Martin Prado had a two-run RBI, while Brian McCann and Dan Uggla both went 2-for-3. However, Fredi Gonzalez’s squad stranded eight base runners.
Atlanta rookie RHP Brandon Beachy (0-0, 1.50) will get his fifth career start Saturday. He has already faced the Phillies twice, giving up three earned runs in 10 innings of work last season. In his debut this year, Beachy worked six strong innings, giving up just four hits and one earned run while striking out seven in a 2-1 win at Milwaukee.
Manuel will give the starting nod to veteran RHP Roy Oswalt, who faced his former team for the first time this past Sunday. Oswalt (1-0, 3.00) went six innings in a 7-3 win vs. Houston. He struck out six Astros and gave up a pair of runs and five hits.
Atlanta veteran third baseman Chipper Jones was given a rest Thursday after going 2-for-4 in Wednesday’s 5-4 loss at Milwaukee. Jones is 8-for-25 with three doubles and a .320 batting average to date.
The ‘over’ has been a steady money maker in Philadelphia games so far, cashing at a 5-0-1 clip. Meanwhile, the Braves have watched the ‘under’ go 4-2-1.
Philadelphia won 10 of the 18 head-to-head meetings between these clubs in 2010. The ‘under’ went 10-7-1.
As of early Friday night, most betting shops had this game listed as a pick ‘em with a total of 7 ½ ‘under’ (minus-115).
Yankees at Red Sox
Boston (1-6, -739) belatedly got into the win column Friday afternoon with a 9-6 win in its home opener at Fenway Park. The Red Sox cashed tickets as a minus-135 favorite, hooking up run-line backers with a plus-145 payout (risk $100 to win $145). Dustin Pedroia belted a solo homer in the first and finished with three hits and three RBIs. The bullpen worked four scoreless innings and Jonathan Papelbon picked up the save with a perfect ninth inning.
Terry Francona’s club started the season by getting swept at Texas and at Cleveland. The BoSox scored just five runs in three games against the Indians. Carl Crawford, the club’s key off-season acquisition, is off to a slow start with an abysmal .143 batting average to date.
New York (4-3, -63) took two of three from both the Tigers and Twins in the Bronx to start the season. The bats were extremely productive, producing 35 runs in the teams’ first six outings. Alex Rodriguez is hitting .304 so far and he stroked his third homer in Friday’s loss.
New York RHP Ivan Nova (1-0, 4.50) went six innings and picked up the victory in a 4-3 win over Minnesota on Monday. Nova made 10 appearances last season, seven of which were starts, posting a 1-2 record with a 4.50 ERA. He faced Boston once, giving up four runs in 4 2/3 innings of work.
Francona will give the ball to Clay Buchholz (0-1, 5.68), who got knocked around in a 5-1 loss at Texas last Sunday. The right-hander owns a 1-2 record and 5.79 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees.
The ‘over’ is 5-2 in New York’s first seven games, 4-3 for Boston.
These bitter AL East rivals split 18 head-to-head meetings in 2010. The ‘over’ went 12-4-2 in those encounters. With yesterday’s game easily jumping above the total, the ‘over’ has now cashed in six of the last seven between these squads.
vegasinsider.com.