NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (14-9) at Philadelphia (12-10)
Roy Halladay (4-1, 1.80 ERA) tries to bounce back from his first loss of the season when he leads the Phillies against Mike Pelfrey (4-0, 0.69) and the streaking Mets as these N.L. East rivals continue their three-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
New York took a seven-game winning streak into Friday’s series opener and pounded the Phillies 9-1 to take over sole possession of first place in the N.L. East. Not only have the Mets won eight in a row, but they’re 10-1 in their last 11 games, outscoring the opposition 54-15 in the 10 wins. Jerry Manuel’s club is on additional surges of 7-0 against right-handed starters and 5-2 on Saturday, but they’re still in slumps of 17-38 on the road, 16-38 against N.L. East rivals and 7-16 in their last 22 versus winning teams.
Since starting the season 8-2, the Phillies have lost eight of 12, including three straight at home, and they’re 2-8 in their last 10 on Saturday. On the bright side, Philadelphia went 12-6 against the Mets last year, and despite Friday’s result, the Phils are still 11-3 in the last 14 meetings, including 6-2 in the last eight at Citizens Bank.
Pelfrey gave up two runs on four hits in six innings in his season debut on April 9, beating the Nationals 8-2 at home. But since the second inning of that contest, he’s pitched 24 scoreless innings in four appearances (three starts), yielding a total of 14 hits and nine walks while striking out 15. New York posted shutouts in all three starts, beating the Rockies 5-0 (road), the Cubs 4-0 (home) and the Braves 1-0 (home).
Despite Pelfrey’s recent success overall, the Mets are still just 2-6 in his last eight outings on the highway, and last year he went 4-7 with a 6.72 ERA in 14 road contests. However, New York won four of Pelfrey’s five starts against the Phillies last year, and Pelfrey is 4-2 with a 4.82 ERA in nine career starts against Philadelphia, but 1-1 with a 7.17 ERA in four games at Citizens Bank. In fact, the Phillies at home are batting .341 against Pelfrey. In two starts last year in Philadelphia, Pelfrey gave up 11 runs and 18 hits in 11 1/3 innings, but the Mets won both games (7-4 and 10-9).
After four straight gems to begin his Phillies career, Halladay finally got touched up Monday in San Francisco, giving up five runs on 10 hits in seven innings of a 5-1 loss. That ended a string of eight straight quality starts for Halladay, who gave up two runs or less in seven of those games and registered four complete games. The veteran right-hander still has six complete games in his last 11 outings, allowing a total of 16 earned runs in 89 innings (1.61 ERA).
Four of Halladay’s first five starts have come on the road, with his lone game at Citizens Park resulting in an 8-6 win over the Marlins (two runs allowed in eight innings). Halladay is a mediocre 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA in four career starts against the Mets (all in interleague play when he was with Toronto).
The Mets are on “under” runs of 10-4-1 overall, 6-0 against N.L. East foes, 4-0 on Saturday, 5-1 overall behind Pelfrey and 4-1-1 when Pelfrey works on Saturday. The under is also 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last six divisional games and 4-0 in its last four in the second game of a series. On the flip side, though, the Phillies carry lengthy “over” streaks of 34-16-2 overall, 10-3-1 at home, 23-10-2 versus right-handed starters and 6-1-1 at home against righties.
Finally, these teams barely stayed under the 10½-run total Friday, making the under 11-2 in the last 13 series meetings overall, including 7-1 in the last eight in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (12-12) at Detroit (14-10)
Two veteran pitchers off to slow starts hope to get back on track at Comerica Park, where the Tigers and Jeremy Bonderman (1-1, 6.97 ERA) match up against the Angels and southpaw Scott Kazmir (2-1, 7.20) in the middle game of a weekend series.
Detroit stretched its winning streak to three in a row with Friday’s 10-6 rout of Los Angeles, scoring eight runs in the fourth inning to erase a 4-2 deficit. The Tigers are on positive runs of 7-3 at home this year, 9-4 in their last 13 against lefty starters and 21-7 in their last 28 at home versus southpaws.
Los Angeles has followed up a five-game winning streak by going 4-5 in its last nine games. Still, Mike Scioscia’s squad is on surges of 7-3 versus winning teams, 13-6 on Saturday and 7-3 with Kazmir starting.
These teams split a four-game set in Anaheim earlier this month, with Los Angeles taking the first two contests (2-0 and 6-5) and Detroit posting one-run wins in the last two (4-3 and 5-4). Even though the Tigers have won the last three in a row, the Angels remain on a 49-24 overall run against the Tigers.
Kazmir faced the Tigers on April 20 at home and gave up two runs on six hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in 5 2/3 innings, picking up a 6-5 win. He followed that with Sunday’s 8-4 home victory over the Yankees, though he survived just 5 1/3 innings after surrendering four runs on three hits and four walks. The veteran southpaw has not made it out of the sixth inning in four straight starts going back to last year’s playoffs, and he’s gone six straight starts without a quality outing (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or less allowed).
Kazmir’s first start of 2010 came on the road, and he got pounded at Yankee Stadium (six runs allowed – including three home runs – in four innings of a 6-2 loss). He’s made five career starts at Comerica Park, going 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA, part of an overall 3-4 mark with a 4.50 ERA in nine lifetime starts versus Detroit.
Bonderman’s longest outing of the season came at Angel Stadium on April 21, when he yielded just three runs on three hits in six innings, getting a no-decision as Detroit pulled out a 4-3 victory. The right-hander followed that with another no-decision Sunday in Texas, yielding four runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings, with Detroit prevailing 8-6. Bonderman’s one victory came in his only home start to date, as he held the Indians to a run on one hit in five innings of a 4-2 win on April 10.
With last month’s performance in L.A., Bonderman is now 3-3 with a 4.66 ERA in 11 career starts against the Angels, giving up three earned runs or fewer and pitching at least six innings in seven of the last nine.
The Halos sport “under” streaks of 20-7 on the road, 14-5-1 versus the A.L. Central, 19-7-1 in the second game of a series, 13-4 against right-handed starters on the road, 5-0 on Saturday and 4-1 with Kazmir pitching on the road. However, the over is 4-1 in Kazmir’s past five starts overall, while Detroit is on “over” surges of 6-2-1 overall, 6-2 at home, 5-0-1 versus the A.L. West and 12-3-2 when Bonderman faces A.L. West squads. That said, the under is 13-6-2 in Bonderman’s last 21 starts overall.
Finally, the under is 6-3-1 the last nine times the Angels have visited Motown, though Friday’s slugfest easily cleared the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
Saturday's Fox Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
As always, MLB offers gamblers a stacked slate on Saturday. Also, there are three games at 3:15 p.m. Eastern on Fox. Let’s look at all three of those matchups and more.
**Astros at Braves**
There was no overnight line due to the uncertain status of Houston’s starting pitcher in this spot.
Atlanta (8-14, -822) took a nine-game losing streak into Friday’s series opener against the Astros. The Braves went winless on a seven-game road trip, including Thursday’s 10-4 loss at St. Louis in which they also lost RHP Jair Jurrjens to a strained hamstring in the second inning.
Houston (8-13, -375) lost its first eight games of the season, but it has responded by winning eight of its last 13 games going into a three-game set at Turner Field. The Astros won five of the first six games of a recent home stand, only to close it out by getting swept by Cincinnati.
Tim Hudson (1-1, 3.28) owns a 2-0 record and 1.16 ERA in four career starts against the Astros. The Braves are 2-2 in his four outings this year.
Wandy Rodriguez (1-2, 3.65) was pushed back a day from his originally scheduled start on Friday. The left-hander has made six lifetime starts against the Braves, compiling a 2-1 record and 4.89 ERA.
Atlanta veteran slugger Chipper Jones is 4-for-12 (.333) against Rodriguez with a triple and a pair of home runs. On the flip side, Martin Prado is an abysmal 1-for-8 (.125) off the lefty.
With the exception of the aforementioned Prado, who is second in the National League with a .360 batting average, nobody in Atlanta’ starting lineup is hitting better than .250. That, folks, is beyond pathetic.
Bobby Cox’s team has lost four of its six games against lefty starters so far this year. Meanwhile, the ‘Stros are 6-10 versus righties, 4-4 in day games. The Braves have lost five of their eight day games.
Atlanta went into Friday’s action in the NL East cellar, five games back of the division-leading Mets. Houston was also in the cellar, 6 ½ games behind the first-place Cardinals.
The ‘under’ is 11-8 overall for the Braves, 6-3 in their home games.
The ‘under’ is 13-6 overall for the Astros, 5-0 in their road assignments.
**Mets at Phillies**
As of Friday night, most books were listing Philadelphia (12-9, -47) as a minus-200 favorite with a total of eight ‘under’ (minus-120). Bettors can take the Phillies on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-105 return (risk $100 to win $105).
New York (13-9, +368) took a seven-game winning streak into the City of Brotherly Love. That surge had the Mets atop of the National League East standings going into Friday’s series opener. The Phillies were one-half game back of the division leaders.
Mike Pelphrey (4-0, 0.69) might be a darkhorse Cy Young candidate if there’s such a thing in early May. The right-hander, who came into 2010 with a 28-32 career record, hasn’t given up an earned run in three consecutive outings. Pelphrey owns a 4-2 record and 4.89 career ERA against the Phillies.
Charlie Manuel will give the starting nod to Roy Halladay, who is 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA through his first five starts in the NL with Philadelphia. The veteran right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA in four career starts against the Mets.
The ‘over’ is 12-9 overall for the Phillies, 4-2 in their home outings.
The Mets have seen the ‘under’ go 12-9 overall, 3-3 in their road games.
Rangers at Mariners**
Most spots have installed Seattle (11-11, +43) as a minus-220 ‘chalk’ with a total of seven flat (minus-110 either way)
The Mariners have limped to a 2-6 record in day games, while the Rangers are 4-6 in 10 day games.
Felix Hernandez (2-1, 2.23) is coming off a 114-pitch outing in a 3-1 loss to the Rangers. Hernandez went seven innings and gave up a pair of earned runs while striking out seven. The M’s had prevailed in his four previous starts this season. Hernandez owns an 8-9 record and 3.72 ERA in 23 lifetime starts against the Rangers.
Matt Harrison (0-1, 5.48) has been shelled for six earned runs in back-to-back outings. The Rangers have lost in all four of his starts. The southpaw is 1-1 with a 3.91 ERA in four career assignments against Seattle.
The ‘under’ is 13-8 overall for the M’s, 7-2 in their home games.
The ‘under’ has cashed at an 11-10 overall clip for the Rangers, going 6-3 in their road contests.
vegasinsider.com
Tips and Trends
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Mets: Considering a New York team has won 8 consecutive games, the Mets are sure flying under the radar. Very little buzz has been created since the Mets have won 8 straight games. New York is an impressive 14-9 to start the season, and are out to prove they are a force in the National League East. The Mets are winning of late with both timely hitting and solid pitching. The Mets bullpen has also been doing a masterful job this season, as they have an ERA of 2.31 so far this season. P Mike Pelfrey has been simply amazing this year, as he enters tonight 4-0, with an ERA of 0.72 and a WHIP of 1.16. Pelfrey has been so solid, he hasn't given up an earned run in his past 3 starts. Despite the great year the Mets are having, New York is only 2-6 in Pelfreys last 8 starts as the listed road underdog. The Mets traditionally struggle on the road, as they are only 16-38 in their last 54 road games.
Mets are 5-0 last 5 games as an underdog.
Under is 4-1 last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - CF Carlos Beltran (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)
Phillies (-200, O/U 8): Philadelphia is not playing their best baseball right now, as they've lost 4 of their last 5 games entering tonight. The Phillies are just getting settled in after a 9 game road trip. They played like a team still battling jet lag, as they lost last night to the Mets 9 to 1. The Phillies offense is to blame, as they've only scored more than 4 runs in 3 of their past 12 games. Philadelphia is still confident today, as they send their ace P Roy Halladay to the mound today. Halladay is coming off his only poor start this season, a loss to San Francisco. Halladay is 4-1 with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.98. The Phillies are 42-18 in their last 60 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. Philadelphia has also excelled in low scoring games at home, going 21-6 in their last 27 home games when the total is set between 7-8.5 runs.
Phillies are 38-15 last 53 games as a home favorite.
Over is 10-2-1 last 13 home games.
Key Injuries - SS Jimmy Rollins (calf) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3