Saturday's Fox Tips
By Brian Edwards
**Astros at Giants**
Most betting shops are listing San Francisco (18-15, +79) as a minus-200 favorite with a total of 6 ½ ‘under’ (minus-115). Gamblers can take the Giants on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-110 return (risk $100 to win $110).
Houston (13-21, -321) has won four in a row and is coming off a shocking three-game sweep of the Cardinals in St. Louis. The Astros hooked up their backers with the following payouts as underdogs against the Cards: +200, +160 and +260. That’s more than six units of profit.
Bruce Bochy’s club went into Friday’s series opener against Houston with a 10-8 home record. The Giants were 3 ½ games back of the National League West leaders, the San Diego Padres.
Even after dealing broom treatment to St. Louis, the Astros are still in the NL Central cellar, 6 ½ games back of the first-place Cards.
Roy Oswalt (2-4 2.63) has been a hard-luck pitcher so far this season. The hard-throwing righty has an excellent 2.86 ERA in his last three starts, yet zero wins to show for it. Oswalt owns a 5-6 record and 3.76 ERA in 16 lifetime starts against San Francisco.
Tim Lincecum (4-0, 1.86) will get the ball for the Giants, hence the miniscule total for this contest. Lincecum, a right-hander with a 44-17 record and 2.86 career ERA, threw seven scoreless innings against Houston earlier this season. He has a 3-0 record and 1.37 ERA in six lifetime starts against the Astros.
The ‘under’ is an MLB-best 21-11 overall for Houston, 8-3 in its road assignments.
The ‘under’ is 18-12 overall for the Giants and has been especially prevalent in their home games with a 12-4 ledger.
This game will come off the board at 4:10 p.m. Eastern with FOX providing television coverage.
**Mariners at Rays**
Most books are listing Tampa Bay (24-10, +893) as an expensive minus-210 favorite with a total of 8 ½ ‘under’ (minus-115). Bettors can take the Rays on the run line and just risk a minus-120 price.
Seattle (13-21, -984) was hoping to be a serious contender in the AL West after acquiring new ace pitcher Cliff Lee. However, Lee missed all of April and is just now starting to make an impact. Meanwhile, Ken Griffey Jr. and others in the lineup have not produced, leaving the Mariners in the division’s cellar, trailing the loop-leading Rangers by 6 ½ games going into Friday’s play.
James Shields (4-1, 3.13) will take the mound Saturday for his eighth start of the season. The right-hander has already beaten the Mariners this year, working eight innings and giving up just two earned runs. Shields walked none and struck out 10 Seattle batters. In seven career starts against the M’s, Shields is 3-2 with a 2.32 ERA.
Jason Vargas (3-2, 3.00) picked up a win after working 7 1/3 scorless innings in his last start. The lefty is 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA in seven-plus career innings against Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay has feasted on left-handed pitching, going 10-5 in 15 games against lefty starters. The Rays have a 9-6 record at home.
The M’s have seen the ‘under’ go 19-16 overall, 8-7 in their road games. They had a miserable 5-11 road record going into Friday’s series opener.
Totals have been a wash overall for the Rays (16-16), but they have watched the ‘over’ go 8-7 in their home outings.
FOX will have the telecast at 4:10 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
A pair of lefties will take the mound at Yankee Stadium on Saturday for a 1:05 p.m. Eastern start. Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano is coming off his first loss of the season, but he’s still sporting a 4-1 record and 2.36 ERA through six outings, clearly returning to the form he demonstrated his rookie year before developing elbow problems. Andy Pettitte will get the ball for Bronx Bombers, looking to improve on his 4-0 record and 2.08 ERA.
The Twins are 8-2 in 10 games against left-handed starters, while the Yankees are just 7-6 versus southpaws.
The ‘over’ is an MLB-best 24-12 for the D-backs and was 15-4 in their road games before Friday’s series opener at Atlanta.
With Friday’s postponement in Denver, Colorado and Washington will play a day-night doubleheader on Saturday. The first game of the twin bill will come off the board at 2:10 p.m. Eastern.
vegasinsider.com
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (21-14) at Cincinnati (19-16)
The top two teams in the National League Central continue a three-game series at Great American Ballpark, as red-hot Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright (5-1, 2.08) is set to oppose Reds rookie Mike Leake (3-0, 3.10).
St. Louis snapped a three-game skid with a 4-3 victory in Friday’s series opener, jumping out to a 4-0 lead and holding on late. The Cardinals remain just 3-7 in their last 10 games (3-4 on the road), and they’re in additional slumps of 2-4 against N.L. Central rivals, 5-9 against winning teams, 1-5 versus right-handed starters, 2-5 on Saturday and 2-6 in the second game of a series
Cincinnati had its five-game winning streak – all against the N.L. Central – halted with Friday’s loss and fell 1½ games behind the Cardinals in the division race. The Reds, who had outscored their opponents 35-6 during their five-game winning streak, have still won five of eight at home, but they’ve lost 23 of their last 32 Saturday contests.
This is already the third time these rivals have squared off in a series this season. St. Louis has won five of the seven contests, and going back to last year, the Redbirds are on a 6-2 roll against Cincinnati.
Wainwright is coming off his 13th consecutive quality start – at least six innings pitched while allowing three earned runs or fewer – as he held the Pirates to two runs on five hits in six innings on Sunday, rolling to an 11-4 road win. Wainwright has now held seven of eight opponents to two earned runs or less, and going back to the middle of last June, the right-hander has had 26 quality starts in his last 27 trips to the mound, yielding two earned runs or fewer in 24 of those 27 contests. He’s also gone 14 straight starts without walking more than two batters in a game.
With Wainwright starting, the Cardinals have won 38 of 54 games overall, 20 of 26 on the road, 24 of 32 against division rivals, 25 of 32 against winning teams and nine of 13 on Saturday. He’s 2-1 with a 2.17 ERA in four road outings this year, including a 6-3 victory in Cincinnati on April (two runs, three hits in seven innings). With that win, he’s now 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA in 10 games (five starts) versus the Reds (1-1, 5.14 ERA in five games and three starts at Great American Ballpark).
Leake is off to a strong rookie season, giving up three earned runs or fewer in five of his first six starts, while pitching at least six innings in every game. On Sunday against the Cubs, he surrendered three runs on four hits in seven innings of a 5-3 home victory, so he’s 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three trips to the mound.
Cincinnati is 5-1 in Leake’s six outings this year, including 3-0 at home, where the right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA. He has yet to face St. Louis in his brief career.
St. Louis is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 23-10-1 overall, 9-2 on the road, 12-4-1 within the division, 5-0-2 on Saturday and 8-2 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is on “over” runs of 3-0-2 on Saturday and 5-1-2 when facing right-handed starters at home.
Finally, the under is 4-0-1 in the last five series meetings, but 10 of the last 14 clashes in Cincinnati have hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (22-13) at N.Y. Yankees (23-11)
Andy Pettitte (4-0, 2.08) is scheduled to return to the mound for the first time in 10 days as he leads the Yankees against Francisco Liriano (4-1, 2.36) and the Twins in the middle game of a three-game series at Yankee Stadium.
Alex Rodriguez hit a grand slam to highlight a four-run seventh inning as New York rallied for an 8-4 victory Friday. Prior to last night, the Yankees had lost four of five games to end a road trip, a slump that came on the heels of a six-game winning streak. Still, New York remains on upticks of 99-43 overall, 49-11 at Yankee Stadium (11-2 this year), 38-14 against the A.L. Central, 6-1 on Saturday and 44-10 when facing right-handed starters at home.
Minnesota has still won seven of 11, and it is on further hot streaks of 39-20 overall, 16-5 against left-handed starters and 7-2 on Saturday. However, they’ve now lost 43 of 63 against the A.L. East and 41 of 61 on the road against southpaw starters.
The Yankees swept the Twins out of the best-of-5 American League Division Series last October, finishing the year 10-0 against Minnesota, so they’ve now won 11 straight in this lopsided rivalry, which has seen New York win 51 of the last 67 meetings overall and 28 of the last 33 in the Bronx.
Liriano is coming off his first loss of the season, falling 7-3 to the Orioles on Saturday as he gave up five runs on 10 hits in six innings. Prior to that, Liriano had surrendered a total of six runs in his first five starts covering 36 innings, and the Twins won all five games. Liriano is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three road contests.
Minnesota has dropped five of Liriano’s last six starts against the A.L. East. That includes two losses to the Yankees last year (5-4 on the road, 6-4 at home), with the lefty giving up seven runs (four earned) in 11 1/3 innings. Throw in one relief appearance, and Liriano is 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings pitched against New York.
Pettitte picked up a 7-5 home win over the Orioles in his most recent start on May 5, but was forced to leave the game after five innings because of elbow discomfort, and he’s been sidelined since. The 37-year-old veteran has held five of his six opponents to two runs or fewer, and the Yankees are undefeated in his last nine trips to the mound (playoffs included) and his last six starts at home.
New York is 22-8 in Pettitte’s last 30 starts overall, 84-38 in his last 122 home outings and 22-8 in his last 30 against the A.L. Central. Also, including the playoffs, the Yankees are 6-1 in Pettitte’s last seven starts against the Twins and 5-1 in his last six home outings against Minnesota. For his career, Pettitte is 11-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 21 starts (two playoffs) against Minnesota.
The Twins are on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 20-5-2 against the A.L. East, 6-1 against left-handed starters and 5-2 in Liriano’s last seven starts. Likewise, the Yankees have stayed low in four of five overall, and the under is 16-8-1 in their last 25 home games, 8-4-1 in their last 13 against the A.L. Central (4-0 last four) and 6-2 in Pettitte’s last eight starts against the Central. However, the over has cashed in five of New York’s last six on Saturday and four of Pettitte’s last five home outings.
Finally, even though Friday’s contest flew over the posted price, the under is 29-12-4 in the last 45 Twins-Yankees battles in the Bronx, and all three playoff meetings in October stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
MLB RoundUp For 5/15
By Dan Bebe
National League
Pirates @ Cubs (-215) with a total of N/A
Jason Jaramillo is 3-for-6 off Dempster;
Andy LaRoche is 3-for-9 with an RBI off Dempster;
Derrek Lee is 7-for-21 off Maholm;
Aramis Ramirez is 8-for-20 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Maholm;
Alfonso Soriano is 6-for-18 with 3 HR and 5 RBI off Maholm;
Ryan Theriot is 6-for-18 with 5 RBI off Maholm.
Neither of these pitchers has a strong track record against this particular opponent. Maholm is 5-1 against Chicago but has an ERA of 6.63. Dempster is 6-7 with a 5.15 ERA. So, yes, Maholm is lucky in this series, but that sort of thing rarely lasts forever. We also know this game is a "B" play, so there should be a goodly public rush for Chicago, more than usual. Scary game, but if we wait on the wind, we might get some value with the Over.
Astros @ Giants (-230) with a total of 6.5
Lance Berkman is 3-for-10 with 2 RBI off Lincecum;
Mark DeRosa is 12-for-23 with a HR and 3 RBI off Oswalt since '05.
Well, you certainly don't want to play an over between these two guys. Oswalt is sporting a 2.63 ERA, and Lincecum 1.86. Of course, that number of 6.5 is awfully low, so the under is probably out of the question, as well. Lincecum is 3-0, 1.37 ERA lifetime against Houston, so not sure I'm comfortable fading him, either. Pass.
Phillies @ Brewers (-115) with a total of 9.5
Ryan Braun is 3-for-8 off Blanton;
Corey Hart is 5-for-9 off Blanton.
This is a weird line, I feel. The Phillies are vastly superior to the Brewers from a talent perspective, and I know Narveson is a perfect 3-0, but his 5.06 ERA makes this line even more odd. Blanton has the potential to be a horse, though he's clearly not at full strength right now, and he's just 1-1 against Milwaukee lifetime. At this absurd price, I feel like the Phils are awfully tempting, but I can't help but think this line on Narveson has to be set for a reason. Perhaps it's Blanton's lingering injury or the fact that he's trying to get up to full speed; perhaps it's Narveson's seemingly lucky ability to get run support. We'll dig deeper on this one.
D'backs @ Braves (-215) with a total of 8.5
Stephen Drew is 2-for-3 with a HR off Hanson;
Melky Cabrera is 4-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Lopez.
Tommy Hanson is one tough cookie, and Rodrigo Lopez has been decent, maybe decent enough where this game is a value on Arizona, but with the bullpen struggles of the D'backs, and with their offensive slump, this game could be tough to watch no matter which side you're betting on. Pass.
Mets @ Marlins (-120) with a total of 9.5
Luis Castillo is 7-for-17 off Robertson;
Jorge Cantu is 6-for-15 with 3 RBI off Maine.
John Maine has been oddly good against Florida, going 5-2 with a 3.45 ERA in his career. Robertson is 1-0 against the Mets, but that sample size just isn't sufficient. I admit, Robertson has been better this year than I expected, and Maine is just finally starting to throw a little better, and while I feel like perhaps the under might have some value (if Maine and Robertson are decent), either guy (or both) could implode and stink it up. Tough call, here, though the Mets don't appear comfortable on the road, so I'd have to say tiny, tiny lean to Marlins, but barely a blip on my radar.
Cardinals (-155) @ Reds with a total of 7.5
The current Reds are 6-for-28 with 1 HR and 3 RBI, not impressive.
Wainwright's career numbers against Cincinnati actually aren't great, 2-2, 4.46, but the current Reds, who, for what it's worth, are playing good baseball, but haven't done much of anything against Wainwright. Leake has been solid since making the leap from College, though I'm still not sold, and I feel like the Reds solid play and Leake's early-season success are driving this line down. Believe it or not, despite momentum telling otherwise, I would look at the Cards here. Wainwright is an ace and a bonafide stopper.
Nationals @ Rockies (-150) with a total of 10.5
Nyjer Morgan is 3-for-8 off Hammel;
Ivan Rodriguez is 3-for-10 off Hammel;
Josh Willingham is 3-for-7 with a HR off Hammel.
Not surprisingly, no one on the Rockies has seen Atilano. Maybe more surprising is that Hammel is still sporting an ERA over 9 in 2010. He should be able to get things turned around eventually, but for whatever reason, he's getting a ton of credit in this one. Atilano will likely have a rough go of things in his first career start in the altitude of Coors, so backing the dog isn't easy, but backing a starter who gives up a run every inning at -150 is even tougher. Pass.
Dodgers (-125) @ Padres with a total of 7.5
Andre Ethier is 8-for-15 with 3 RBI off Correia;
Manny Ramirez is 2-for-6 off Correia;
David Eckstein is 4-for-12 off Kershaw;
Scott Hairston is 3-for-9 off Kershaw;
Chase Headley is 5-for-16 with 2 RBI off Kershaw.
I'm still having trouble wrapping my head around how good the Padres are playing. Having a lights out bullpen helps, but that batting order getting it done is boggling my mind. Something tells me the Dodgers might pose a problem, since they can really hit. Kershaw is excellent, and he's been good against the Padres. Correia has a nice track record against LA, but he's coming off an injury, and while he says he's good to go, I'm not sure I always believe starters when they throw themselves in the line of fire like that. Slight lean to LA.
American League
Twins @ Yankees (-130) with a total of 9
Michael Cuddyer is 4-for-9 off Pettitte since '05;
Brendan Harris is 8-for-17 off Pettitte;
Joe Mauer is 4-for-10 with a HR and 2 RBI off Pettitte;
Justin Morneau is 4-for-10 off Pettitte with 1 RBI since '05;
Delmon Young is 9-for-14 with 3 RBI off Pettitte;
Marcus Thames is 4-for-9 with 3 HR off Liriano.
The Yankees continued their dominance of the Twinkies last night with another beatdown, but this one feels different. Pettitte had his spot in the rotation skipped because of some mild inflammation, and all signs are that he's okay, but even a tiny blip for some of these guys and things can change drastically. Pettitte's ERA crept up over 2 in his last start, and he's 7-1 lifetime against the Twins, but Liriano is one of the few guys that could potentially sneak a win against the juggernauts.
Rangers @ Blue Jays (-160) with a total of 8.5
Vlad Guerrero has a couple hits off Romero in a few ABs, as does David Murphy;
Adam Lind has homered twice off Feldman in brief exposure.
Romero dominated the Rangers earlier this year, but he seems to be regressing a bit over his last few starts, and you guys all know how I feel about rematches. Feldman actually pitched pretty well against the Jays earlier this year, though he's been relatively bad since. This line is accurate. Pass.
Mariners @ Rays (-215) with a total of 8
Chone Figgins is 6-for-17 with an RBI off Shields;
Franklin Gutierrez is 3-for-9 with a HR off Shields before 2010;
Michael Saunders was a perfect 3-for-3 off Shields before this season.
Sadly, I believe we had the Mariners good situational spot pegged last night, and we might have missed our chance to capitalize (at least with a premium play). Tampa is too expensive, and my guess is that they'll probably come back and win the rest of the games in this series. Pass.
Red Sox (-155) @ Tigers with a total of 9
Adrian Beltre is 3-for-4 with an RBI off Willis;
Victor Martinez is 2-for-3 with a HR off Willis;
Johnny Damon is batting .292 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Lester.
Again, pretty hefty price on Lester, but I suppose Boston is the better overall team, and he's absolutely the better pitcher. Something tells me the Tigers don't take well to getting put behind early yesterday, and the D-Train comes out with a fire. Not sure I have the gumption to back them, though, as Dontrelle's start was skipped because of a fever of 102. Tigers or nothing for me, here.
Indians @ Orioles (-130) with a total of 8.5
Matusz dominated the Indians the only time he saw them, and he's 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA. Talbot, who has been a shining beacon of hope this year (4-2, 3.43) will try to get the Indians some kind of momentum. You certainly have to like the Orioles here, who continue to improve their collective offense, and are coming off, now, back to back wins, including an easy 8-1 winner last night. I know there isn't a ton of value laying this type of price on a young hurler, but I happen to think Matusz could reasonably be a -150 favorite here, so we're getting about 15-20 cents of value.
White Sox (-135) @ Royals with a total of 8.5
Alexei Ramirez was 4-for-8 off Hochevar before 2010.
Peavy was outstanding the last time he faced the Royals, and he's starting to get things pieced together a little bit. Hochevar was excellent the last time he faced the White Sox, and he remains very up and down. Both guys have nice career numbers against the other team, which makes picking a side here awfully tough. I'm inclined to say the home team is the value, but that Royals pen is a disaster waiting to happen. For the same reason, I'm hesitant to back the Under, though that's my favorite play of any in this one. Still, in all likelihood, this isn't a game that I'll be grabbing.
Athletics @ Angels (-125) with a total of 8.5
Daric Barton is 5-for-15 off Santana;
Eric Chavez is 8-for-25 with 2 RBI off Santana since '05;
Ryan Sweeney is 7-for-12 with a HR and 3 RBI off Santana;
Mike Napoli is 2-for-3 with a HR off Duchscherer before 2010.
When Duchscherer is healthy, he's something of a wizard with the baseball. Maybe this isn't the right breakdown, but he has an arsenal of pitches and uses deception a little more like a pitcher from overseas. A few different fastballs, a handful of breaking stuff. Really a fun guy to watch, from a finesse standpoint. And, he's 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA against the Halos in his career. The concern is that he's not fully healthy. On the other side, Ervin Santana continues to improve, and his hard stuff has given the A's all kinds of fits over the years. He's 10-2 with a 1.41 ERA against Oakland. This total of 8.5 seems eerily high, though. If money is bigtime on the Under, we'll be careful. If money is split, this total might get our attention.
Tips and Trends
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Twins: Minnesota will look to bounce back strong after a loss yesterday to star their road trip. The Twins have been very consistent this year, rarely going on any losing streaks this season. The Twins are 22-13 this season, which puts them in 1st place in the AL Central. Minnesota is up 4.54 units this season, including 2.72 units on the run line. Right hander Scott Baker will look to handle the Yankees today. Baker is 4-2 this season, with an ERA of 4.57 and a WHIP of 1.29 this year. Twins are 13-5 in Baker's last 18 starts. Twins are 2-9 in Baker's last 11 starts as a road underdog. The Twins are 8-2 this season against left handed pitching, averaging 4.5 runs per game while batting .297 as a team. The Twins are 8-7 this season when playing in day games.
Twins are 4-1 last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600.
Under is 8-2 last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - SS J.J. Hardy (wrist) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Yankees (-130, O/U 9): New York got a much needed win yesterday in their first game home from a 7 game road trip. The Yankees had lost 4 of their previous games prior to yesterday's convincing win. With their solid win yesterday, the Yankees put to rest an offense that had been struggling a bit. The Yankees are 23-12 on the season, including 11-2 overall at home. The Yankees are up 6.96 Units this season, including 11.54 units on the run line thanks to the same 23-12 record. P Andy Pettite will try to maintain the solid start to their season. The Yankees are a perfect 6-0 in games started by Pettite this year. Pettite is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 1.21 this season. The Yankees are 5-0 in Pettitte's last 5 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 26-8 in Pettitte's last 34 starts as a favorite. Pettite dominated the Twins when these two teams met in the playoffs last October, winning 4-1.
Yankees are 10-1 last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 16-7-1 last 24 home games.
Key Injuries - SS Derek Jeter (finger) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side of the Day)
Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers
Red Sox (-155, O/U 9): Boston has won 4 of their past 5 games, enabling them to get back over .500 for the year. The Red Sox are 19-17 this season, including 7-6 on the road. The Red Sox are -4.08 overall and more than 8 units in the hole on the run line this season. Boston will send their ace to the mound today, P Jon Lester. Lester 3-2 with an ERA of 3.71 and a WHIP of 1.24 this year. The Red Sox are 4-0 in Lesters last 4 starts as a road favorite of -151 to -200. Boston is 4-1 in Lesters last 5 starts against the American League Central. Lester has been especially dominant over his past 3 starts, as he's 3-0 with an ERA of 1.23 and WHIP of 0.727. Boston has hit left handed pitching well all season long, as they've averaged 6.4 runs per game while batting .285 against left handers this year. Boston is 8-4 when facing a left handed starting pitcher this season.
Red Sox are 6-20 last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-0 last 6 Saturday games.
Key Injuries - CF Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 7 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Tigers: Detroit is playing well right now, which just happens to be at perfect time. Detroit is playing the Yankees and the Red Sox in back to back series. The Tigers won 3 of 4 against the Yankees, and will to win the final 2 games against the Red Sox to win both series. Detroit is 20-16 for the year, placing them 2nd in the AL Central. The Tigers are 12-5 at home this year, and are up 4.57 units overall this season. The D-Train is back on the tracks today, as Dontrelle Willis will attempt to have a Quality Start against a hot hitting Red Sox team. Willis is 1-1 this season, with a 3.99 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Under is 4-0 in Willis' last 4 starts as a home underdog. The Tigers are 3-9 in Willis' last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Tigers are 35-16 last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-0 last 6 home games.
Key Injuries - LF Carlos Guillen (hamstring) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4