Saturday FOX Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Saturday FOX slate in baseball takes place under the lights with four games getting regional coverage. Two of the East Coast tilts take place inside NL East ballparks, while the other two contests involve a pair of American League clubs playing extremely well. The Subway Series will bat lead-off in tonight's preview with a fantastic pitching matchup between two solid right-handed pitchers.
Yankees at Mets - 7:10 PM EST
These two rivals sent out hurlers from the back-end of their rotation on Friday, but will see instant improvement on Saturday when Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey take the mound. Both these pitchers have won five games each, as each righty is finally come into their own.
Hughes (5-0, 2.25 ERA) has been nearly automatic when he takes the mound, but is coming off his worst start of the season. The Red Sox tagged Hughes for five earned runs in five innings, but the Yankees rallied for an 11-9 victory as the righty picked up a no-decision. Three of Hughes' four road starts have been quality ones, including wins at Detroit and Boston. The run support is outstanding for Hughes, as the Yankees have scored at least eight runs in each of his last four outings.
Pelfrey (5-1, 3.02 ERA) began the season on fire by allowing just two earned runs in his first four starts (Mets 4-0). The tables have turned recently as the Mets' righty gave up 15 earned runs in his last four outings, while the New York is 2-2 in that span. Pelfrey's numbers at home are strong, owning a 2.61 ERA in five starts, with the Mets winning four times. This will be the third start against the Yankees for Pelfrey, coming off a 9-1 home loss last June, as the righty lasted just five innings.
The Yankees grabbed five of six meetings last season, including all three at Citi Field. The road team is 9-3 the previous 12 matchups, as the Mets are 1-5 the last six home games against the Bombers.
Red Sox at Phillies - 7:10 PM EST
Philadelphia owned the worst interleague record among NL teams last season, but the Phillies try to turn their luck around against Daisuke Matzusaka and the Red Sox. After Cole Hamels took the mound in the series opener, the Phillies send out Kyle Kendrick tonight.
Matzusaka (2-1, 7.89 ERA) was knocked around in his last outing against the Yankees, allowing five runs in the first inning of an 11-9 loss. Luckily, the Sox came back to take a late lead to get Dice-K off the hook, but Boston ultimately lost on a Marcus Thames walk-off homer. Matzusaka has not pitched well on the road in two away starts, giving up 13 earned runs in 9.1 innings of defeats to the Yankees and Orioles. Dice-K lasted four innings against the Phillies, pitching through an hour and a half rain delay, as the Sox picked up an 11-6 victory.
Kendrick (2-1, 5.24 ERA) struggled to start the season, but the Phillies have won each of his last three outings. The righty pitched well against the Pirates and Cardinals at home, allowing two earned runs in 15 innings. Kendrick lost his only career start versus the Red Sox back in 2008, yielding six hits and six earned runs in three innings of a 7-4 home setback.
Boston finished last season at 6-3 on the road in interleague play, including a pair of victories at Citizens Bank Park. On the flip side, the Phillies are 1-8 the previous nine games against the American League, including getting swept by the Orioles and Blue Jays.
Tigers at Dodgers - 7:10 PM EST
One of the better matchups this weekend takes place at Chavez Ravine, as the Tigers and Dodgers continue their series. Los Angeles has been on fire by winning ten of 11, while going 'under' the total in eight of the last 12. Detroit has not been able to put up a substantial winning streak, as the Tigers have not won more than two straight games over the last three weeks.
The Tigers send out Armando Galarraga (1-0, 1.59 ERA), as the righty is trying to reclaim the magic of the 2008 season in which he finished 13-7. Galarraga won his season debut over the Red Sox, limiting Boston to three hits and one earned run in 5.2 innings of a 5-1 victory. Detroit went 4-8 in Galarraga's 12 starts on the highway last season, while going 1-5 when he is listed as a road underdog.
John Ely (2-1, 3.51 ERA) has become a nice addition to the back end of the Dodgers' rotation, turning in three straight quality starts. Los Angeles has won each of his previous three outings, while all four of his starts have finished 'over' the total. Ely forces batters to earn their way on base by going three consecutive starts without walking a batter.
Following a nice run in interleague play on the road, the Tigers won just three of nine games on the highway last season against NL opponents. The Dodgers weren't much better with a 4-5 home mark in interleague, including dropping a series to the Mariners.
Cubs at Rangers - 7:10 PM EST
Texas looks to keep swinging hot bats, as the Rangers host the Cubs in Arlington. Ron Washington's club captured all four games against the Angels and Orioles, while winning three of those games by one run. The Cubs are playing better after a bit of a funk by grabbing victories in four of their last five.
Randy Wells (3-2, 4.12 ERA) has bounced back from two bad starts by putting together quality outings in each of his last two trips to the mound. The Cubs' righty did not figure in the decision of a 4-2 extra-innings victory over the Rockies last Tuesday, but Wells did turn in 6.2 innings of seven-hit baseball. Wells compiled three quality starts on the road to start the season, but was rocked in his last outing on the highway, allowing seven runs in just two innings of an 11-1 thumping at Pittsburgh.
The Rangers counter with lefty Derek Holland (2-0, 2.38 ERA), who has turned in two home victories in his first two starts since returning from a stint in the minors. Holland had his moments last season, but needed to sure some things up at Triple-A Oklahoma City. The southpaw responded with a 4-1 mark and ERA of 0.93 at the Triple-A level, then was promoted after Matt Harrison hit the DL with biceps tendonitis. Holland was dominant over Oakland in his season debut by hurling six scoreless innings, followed by a win over the Angels.
The Cubs are 1-11 the last 12 interleague road games, while the Rangers finished 3-6 against NL opponents at home in 2009.
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INTERLEAGUE
Boston (22-21) at Philadelphia (26-15)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 7.89 ERA) looks to rebound from a horrendous start at Yankee Stadium when he matches up against Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 5.24) and the Phillies as this three-game interleague series continues at Citizens Bank Park.
Boston scored a run in the top of the first inning on Friday, but was shutout thereafter and fell 5-1 to end a modest three-game winning streak. The Red Sox are just 4-5 in their last nine games, and they’ve lost seven of nine on the highway 20 of 29 against opponents with a winning record and four of five on Saturday. On the bright side, Boston is still on interleague runs of 63-24 overall, 30-13 in N.L. ballparks and 38-14 against the N.L. East.
The Phillies are on a 14-5 roll, having won nine of 13 at home during this stretch. They’re also on positive runs of 6-1 against winning teams and 41-16 when facing right-handed starters at home, but they’ve still lost four of six in interleague play (all against the A.L. East), eight of 10 interleague home games, 37 of 54 interleague games against right-handed starters and 12 of 17 on Saturday.
Despite Friday’s result, Boston has owned this rivalry, winning 13 of the last 17 meetings, going 4-2 in the last six battles in Philadelphia.
Matsuzaka got crushed by the Yankees on Monday, giving up seven runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings, and although he didn’t factor in the decision, Boston lost 11-9 by allowing four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Take away one strong outing against Toronto (one run allowed in seven innings of a 6-1 home win), and Matsuzaka has surrendered 18 runs in his three other starts over 14 2/3 innings (11.05 ERA) since coming off the disabled list at the beginning of this month.
The Red Sox are still 38-16 in Matsuzaka’s last 54 starts overall, 17-7 in his last 24 on the road and 10-4 in his last 14 Saturday efforts. He’s also 0-1 with a 12.54 ERA in two road games this year, and in his lone career start against the Phillies last June, he gave up four runs on seven hits in four innings, but Boston prevailed 11-6.
Kendrick has turned things around lately, going 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three starts (all Phillies wins). On Monday, he limited the Pirates to two runs in eight innings, rolling to a 12-2 victory. He’s still just 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in four home games this season, but in his last two he allowed just two runs in 15 innings in wins over Pittsburgh and St. Louis (4-0). Going back to last year, Philadelphia has won five of Kendrick’s last six home outings.
Kendrick lasted just three innings in his only career start against Boston back in 2008, getting rocked for six runs on six hits and two walks in a 7-4 home loss. Throw in a poor relief outing last year – he gave up three runs in two innings of a 5-2, 12-inning defeat – and the right-hander is 0-2 with a 16.20 ERA versus the Red Sox.
The Sox are riding “over” streaks of 9-3-2 in the second game of a series, 7-0 on Saturday and 4-1 when Dice-K pitches away from Fenway. Also, the Phillies are on “over” runs of 4-1 in interleague play (all vs. the A.L. East), 4-2 when hosting A.L. teams, 9-4 on Saturday, 16-6 behind Kendrick overall, 4-1 when Kendrick starts on Saturday and 4-1 when he pitches against the A.L.
Finally, the over has cashed in eight of the last 12 Phillies-Red Sox battles overall and six of the last nine meetings at Citizens Bank. However, Friday’s series opener stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Detroit (24-18) at L.A. Dodgers (24-18)
The surging Dodgers send rookie John Ely (2-1, 3.51 ERA) to the mound for his fourth big-league start, while the Tigers counter with Armando Galarraga (1-0, 1.59) as these teams continue their three-game interleague series at Dodger Stadium.
Behind an outstanding effort from Chad Billingsley and two relievers, Los Angeles held the Tigers to just a run and four hits in Friday’s series opener and prevailed 4-1. The Dodgers are have won 10 of their last 11 and 11 of their last 13, going 7-2 at home during this span, stretching their record to 14-7 at Dodger Stadium. On top of that, L.A. is on upticks of 13-3 against right-handed starters, 20-6 versus righties at home, 28-11 on Saturday and 4-0 in the second game of a series.
That said, Joe Torre’s squad has been a disaster in interleague play the last few years, going 30-52 in the last 82 overall and 6-21 in the last 26 against the A.L. Central.
The Tigers are still 7-4 in their last 11 games, but they’ve now lost five of six on the road and seven of nine in National League ballparks. On the positive end Jim Leyland’s club is on impressive runs of 4-0 on Saturday, 53-24 in interleague action, 6-3 versus the N.L. West and 42-20 when facing right-handed starters in interleague play.
These teams met two years ago in Motown, and Detroit swept a three-game series, outscoring Los Angeles 22-11. Prior to that, the Dodgers had won five of six from the Tigers in two series in 2003 (road) and 2005 (home).
Galarraga lost a competition for the Tigers’ No. 5 spot in the rotation in spring training, but he returned from Triple-A on Sunday and rolled to a 5-1 home win over the Red Sox, giving up just one run on three hits and three walks in 5 2/3 innings. It was the right-hander’s first big-league start since Sept. 5 of last year.
Going back to last season, the Tigers are 3-7 in Galarraga’s last 10 starts overall, 4-10 in his last 14 road contests and 1-4 in his last five on Saturday. However, they’re 6-2 behind Galarraga when he pitches against the National League. That includes a 5-0 win over the Dodgers in 2008, with Galarraga scattering three hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings.
Ely went a career-high seven innings against Houston on Monday, allowing just two hits and five walks in cruising to a 6-2 victory. Since a disappointing big-league debut at the Mets on April 28 (five runs, six hits, three walks in six innings of a 7-3 loss), Ely has gone 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in three starts, yielding just five runs in 19 2/3 innings. The Dodgers won all three games, with the 24-year-old right-hander posting a 21-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In two home starts, Ely is 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA.
Detroit carries a slew of “under” trends, including 8-2-1 overall, 15-6-1 in N.L. parks and 16-5-1 against the N.L. West, and with Galarraga starting, the “under” is on runs of 8-3 overall, 9-3 on the road and 4-0 against the N.L. West.
For Los Angeles, the under has hit in four straight Saturday contests, 12 of 17 interleague home games, six straight against the A.L. Central and seven of 10 against right-handed starters. However, the over is 8-4 in its last 12 at Dodger Stadium, and all four of Ely’s big-league starts have climbed over the total.
Lastly, these teams have stayed under the total in seven of 10 meetings since 2003, including four of the last five.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MLB RoundUp For 5/22
By Dan Bebe
National League
Braves (-160) @ Pirates with a total of 9
Derek Lowe is a lifetime 7-0, 2.89 ERA pitcher against the Pirates, but looking at the current roster, it kind of makes me wonder if he's due for a loss. Ryan Church has a couple hits, Bobby Crosby has a couple, Ryan Doumit has a pair of hits, and Delwyn Young is 2-for-3. None of them has any power numbers against Lowe, and Derek is trending up after a very poor start to the year, but there's no value here, especially against Charlie Morton, owner of a 1-7 record and 9.68 ERA. I suppose this line might be higher if Lowe's season numbers were better, but -160 is too much to lay on the road.
Interleague Play
Marlins @ White Sox (-110) with a total of 8.5
This game looks pretty evenly matched, to me. Neither guy has seen much of the other, and the only thing that separates one team from the other is recent numbers. So, let's go to the books. Looking at the numbers, the Nationals are really the only team that Volstad has looked dominant against this year. Otherwise, he's been okay, usually giving up 3-4 runs in roughly 6 innings, sort of bordering on "quality start." Gavin Floyd has been dismal this season, sporting that dubious 7.00 ERA, and he's given up 16 runs in his last 3 starts. I keep thinking the next start is going to be the one when he snaps out of it, and truthfully, if he got some defensive help, he probably should have been able to escape his last start only allowing 2-3 runs instead of 5. In any case, there are better games out there. Pass.
Angels @ Cardinals (-150) with a total of 9
Hideki Matsui is 3-for-3 off Lohse;
Matt Holliday is 3-for-6 with a HR off Kazmir.
I wish I could say this line was inflated, but Kazmir has just been garbage this season. I don't much care for Lohse, who actually pitched better his last time out, but his 4-4 lifetime mark against the Angels and 5.11 season ERA isn't too tempting. Without getting into excruciating detail, picking between two underachieving starters is not interesting to me. Pass.
Giants @ Athletics (-110) with a total of 7
The current Giants are 8-for-17 off Gonzalez with 2 HR and 7 RBI;
Jack Cust is 4-for-10 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Cain;
Adam Rosales is 3-for-7 with a HR and 2 RBI off Cain.
This line is a head-scratcher. I would have at least expected Cain to open as a slight favorite, and maybe see where the line moved from there, but to see both teams open at standard juice considering the numbers, is intriguing. Cain is just 2-4 against the A's, but has a 2.89 lifetime ERA against them. He's the poster boy for never getting run support. Gonzalez is 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA against the Giants, and though he's been better this year, and I know rivalry games lead to odd games, but still. This one needs more exploration.
Orioles @ Nationals (-140) with a total of 9.5
This game is 100% about how the pitchers have been trending, and what we find might intrigue you. Brad Bergesen, whose name comes out wrong every time I try to type it, has actually been getting better progressively. He started the year by allowing 5, 8, 7, and 4 runs, but has given up just 0, 1, and 4 in his most recent 3 starts. Stammen has been consistently mediocre all season, allowing 3 or 4 runs just about every time out. If we think Bergesen can hold the Nats to 2-3 runs, this is a nice value on Baltimore; if not, then it isn't. Probably 50/50, so slight lean to Baltimore.
Rockies (-135) @ Royals with a total of 9
Todd Helton is 4-for-6 off Davies;
Troy Tulowitzki is 3-for-5 with 4 RBI off Davies;
David DeJesus is 3-for-10 off Francis;
Jose Guillen is 3-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBI off Francis.
I'd love to back the Royals in this one if the starter was just about anyone other than Kyle Davies. Why? Well, I think this is the ultimate spot to fade a guy coming off a long, long layoff. Jeff Francis powered his way through his first start, but most pitchers suffer a dead-arm in these spots, and take a small step back before surging back towards full health again later. But, unfortunately for us, Davies happens to be 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA against the Rockies lifetime. That ain't good.
Brewers @ Twins (-120) with a total of 9
This is kind of hard to believe, but of all the teams in baseball, I'm not sure there's one that Slowey would like to face more than the Brewers. Slowey, for all his 4.70 ERA glory against the League, is 3-0 lifetime against the Brew Crew with a 2.43 ERA. And looking up and down the current Brewers' roster, Slowey has owned them. Braun is 2-for-13, Prince is 2-for-11, Corey Hart is 3-for-14, Rickie Weeks is 0-for-4, the list goes on like this. This is probably one of the better prices we could get Gallardo at, but I believe there's a reason for that, and that reason is that Milwaukee stinks. The Twins are superior in almost every aspect of the game, and if indeed Slowey cracks off a nice start, the Twins can close the gap in the one spot where Milwaukee might have an edge tonight. Lean to Minnesota.
Reds @ Indians (-110) with a total of 8.5
Orlando Cabrera is 4-for-9 with a HR off Carmona;
Travis Hafner homered in his only AB off Cueto;
Austin Kearns is 3-for-6 off Cueto.
This game is intriguing, if mostly because it's the type of game that reminds us why we have to be so careful with Interleague games. The Indians stink, there's no question about that. They lost another one Friday night, and that answered a question about how the Reds would bounce back from that heartbreaking loss to the Braves the day before. That also scares me away from backing the Indians. Carmona is having a strong year, and he has an 0.96 ERA against the Reds, but his team just isn't hitting. Cueto is having a nice bounceback 2010, and he's been good enough against Cleveland. Where do you go? Maybe the Under?
Rays (-160) @ Astros with a total of 8
Let's start by talking about Niemann. The Astros have never seen the giant righthander, and that's bad news for the light-hitting club from Houston. Somehow, they beat the Rays last night, but did so by holding the Rays to only 1 run. Can they do that again today, against the best road team in baseball? I'm not all that excited to get behind Wandy Rodriguez, who just isn't having his kind of year. No thanks on this one, side or total. Pass.
Red Sox @ Phillies (-125) with a total of 10
J.D. Drew is 2-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI off Kendrick;
Jeremy Hermida is 4-for-13 with a HR off Kendrick;
Mike Lowell is 2-for-3 with a HR and 2 RBI off Kendrick.
This line is nuts. I apologize for going back to non-matchup capping, but the fact that Kyle Kendrick is a -125 favorite to a good team, and the line appears to be rising off the opening number is just bad news for Matsuzaka. I don't trust either starter, here, but reading that line and the line move can tell you plenty, and here, I think that means we're going to get some runs. Boston got held to just 1 run by Cole Hamels, but not tonight. Similarly, the Phils are going to score off Daisuke, who had one good start, then reverted to terrible form his last time out. Plus, that line move definitely makes you think he's going to get shelled. I'd look at the Over, even though the number is pretty high, already.
Cubs @ Rangers (-145) with a total of 9.5
Zero historical data, that's always fun. To the books, we go. Randy Wells started the year strong, clunked his way through the end of April/beginning of May, but looked good again his last time out against the Rockies. Though, Colorado is being exposed lately as a poor-hitting team. Derek Holland threw 6 shutout innings in his season debut, then came back with 5.1 innings, and a bit of a struggle, against the Halos. He only allowed 3 runs, but he labored, and as a young fireballer, that will happen from time to time. As a team, the Rangers have won 5 games in a row after picking up a narrow 2-1 victory last night, and the Cubs have lost 2 straight after a 4-game win streak. Rangers are dangerous right now, and I wouldn't back the Cubs, here. I might consider Texas, but -145 is teetering on too expensive.
Tigers @ Dodgers (-145) with a total of 8
You don't think the Dodgers wish they had Andre Ethier for this game? Armando Galarraga has been destroyed by lefthanded bats throughout his career, and the Dodgers are markedly short on power lefties with Ethier and Furcal both sidelined (Raffy is a switch hitter, for the record). So, what does LA have left? Manny, Kemp, Russ Martin, Blake, and the one lefty, Loney. And while the Dodgers have hit righties very, very well this year, Ethier has played a huge role in that, and the stage is set for Galarraga to have a decent start. Of course, with Ely, you have a solid youngster that is succeeding because teams don't have a scouting report on him. That worries me. The Tigers have a few veteran bats in the middle of that order that can really do some damage. As a Dodger fan, I don't like this game at all; as a handicapper, the Tigers jump out as intriguing, but only enough to make the middle of my lean list.
Yankees (-170) @ Mets with a total of 8
Mark Teixeira is 4-for-13 with 2 RBI off Pelfrey;
Ramiro Pena is 2-for-2 off Pelfrey.
The Subway Series is 1-0 Yanks right now, and this one doesn't look all too pretty. Pelfrey has always been better at home than on the road, but these are, after all, the Yankees. Phil Hughes is overvalued right now, so for the volume guy, this is a Mets play, since backing a pitcher that's 5-0 is rarely a good value move, especially when he's on the Yankees. That being said, we're trying to stay selective and absolutely getting back to the basics, and this game with this line does not fall into any of those categories, at least not for a Premium play. Pass.
Blue Jays @ D'backs (-125) with a total of 10.5
John McDonald is 4-for-12 off Jackson.
Okay, this game illustrates a great handicapping crossroads. On the one hand, we have historical data to work with in the case of Edwin Jackson, and he's been decent in his career against the Jays (2-3, 3.82 ERA). On the other, Edwin doesn't have that "never before seen" edge that a lot of guys do in Interleague play. Opposite him is Dana Eveland, who got off to a nice start this year, but seems to be struggling with control a bit of late, and getting hit hard. But he, unlike Jackson, does indeed have the "never before seen" advantage. Which way do we go? Personally, I err towards Arizona. I like that Jackson is coming off his best start of the year, and Eveland is trending down. Lean to Arizona, here.
Padres (-125) @ Mariners with a total of 7.5
David Eckstein is 7-for-21 with a HR off Snell;
Nick Hundley is 2-for-4 with a HR and 2 RBI off Snell.
This line tells me oddsmakers don't expect a great deal from Snell, just as yesterday's sort of indicated that LeBlanc was going to have some issues. This Mariners team woke up in a big way, but now it seems like the Padres are back to getting the books' attention. I'm not really sure either team is a strong favorite or dog. Until last night, they both had all kinds of offensive issues, and for Seattle, Snell hasn't started since back on April 27th. Clayton Richard hasn't allowed more than 3 runs all season long, but how will he handle the DH? Hopefully not like LeBlanc. I think you have to lean to Padres just because Snell is, well, Snell, but this isn't that strong of a choice.
Saturday’s Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
Streaking
Clayton Richard (3-2, 2.94), San Diego Padres
The surprising thing about the Pads is that they are in first place. Not surprisingly, the team is collecting W’s with its pitching, not hitting.
Richard has yet to surrender more than three earned runs in any of his nine starts this season. The Southpaw has gone 7.0 innings in each of his last two outings (both wins) while giving up one and two runs, respectively.
With Diego’s great pitching, the team is seeing a lot of low totals and this one is set at 7.5
Phil Hughes (5-0, 2.25), New York Yankees
In his last outing, Hughes proved that he was human after all.
The Yanks’ righty gave up five runs against the Red Sox on May 17 but prior to that performance had been lights out. Hughes had given up two runs or fewer in his previous six starts and went at least 7.0 innings in four of those outings.
“On 15 to 20 teams, he’s probably an ace,” former teammate Johnny Damon said. “For the Yankees, he’s the No. 4 starter.”
“I probably didn’t envision these exact numbers, but I really felt good coming out of spring training,” said Hughes.
Slumping
Scott Kazmir (2-4, 6.51), Los Angeles Angels
Tampa Bay must have seen something eerie in Scott Kazmir’s future when they dumped him off on the Angels before last season.
The once heralded, fire-balling lefty went longer than 6.0 innings for the first time all season in his last start but still gave up nine hits and four earned runs. Before that start, Angels’ management had an hour-long, closed-door meeting with Kazmir.
"We just wanted to get an understanding of where he felt he was, what adjustments need to be made and whether he needed some time to make those adjustments," manager Mike Scioscia said. "He doesn't think so, and [pitching coach Mike Butcher] doesn't think so, so he will make his next start.”
Kazmir clearly needs to make some adjustments. He’s surrendered a total of 14 runs in his last three outings.
Returning
Ian Snell (0-2, 4.76 ERA), Seattle Mariners
Snell was exiled to the bullpen three weeks ago but because Ryan Rowland-Smith has struggled for the M’s, the team has moved the righty back into the rotation.
In three relief appearances, Snell compiled a 4.81 ERA so it wasn’t like he was stellar in those situations, giving up at least one earned run in each appearance.
Prior to being banished to a relief role, Snell had made four starts for Seattle. He had a 4.66 ERA in those starts with 18 strikeouts in 28.1 innings of work.
Tips and Trends
New York Yankees at New York Mets
Yankees (-154, O/U 8): New York has scored 6 runs in each of their past 3 games, yet have lost each game. The Yankees pitching staff has let them down of late, as they are riding a 3 game losing streak. New York is currently 5 games behind the team that just swept them, the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees are certainly excited to play in their Subway series with the Mets. The Yankees are up 3 units overall this year SU, including +10 Units on the RL. New York will send Phil Hughes to the mound today, arguably the ace of their staff. Hughes is 5-0 this season, with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 0.98. The Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 interleague games as the listed favorite. New York is 6-0 in Hughes' last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. The Yankees are 8-1 in Hughes' last 9 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Yankees are 7-1 last 8 Saturday games.
Under is 5-0 last 5 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Key Injuries - C Jorge Posada (foot) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Mets: New York is really struggling of late, as they only have 2 wins in their past 9 games overall. Making matters worse is the fact their recente slide has come against their fellow NL East opponents. New York is 20-22 SU overall this season, which places them last in their division. The Mets have played well at home this year however, as they are 14-8 on the year. Mike Pelfrey will take the ball tonight for the Mets, as he looks to continue his outstanding season. Pelfrey is 5-1 this season, with an ERA of 3.02 and a WHIP of 1.32. The Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 games as the listed underdog. New York is 5-1 in Pelfreys last 6 starts as the listed home underdog. The Mets are 6-2 in Pelfreys starts overall this season heading into tonight.
Mets are 3-9 last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Over is 8-1 last 9 against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - CF Carlos Beltran (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)