Saturday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Carlos Silva, Chicago Cubs
What a long strange trip it’s been for Carlos Silva. Long considered one of the most overpaid starters in the majors, Silva has turned around his career in his first year in the Windy City.
Silva continues to rack up the wins even though the Cubs are playing like crap. Chicago is 8-1 on days the big righty takes the mound. Silva has six quality starts in nine appearances for the Cubs and his teammates are helping him out with great run support.
Oddsmakers still aren’t buying into Silva. They made him a large dog in his last outing and the Bolivian native did his part helping the visiting Cubs top the Rangers.
Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
The Marlins ace didn’t allow a run in either of his last two trips to the bump and he sports an eye-popping 0.45 ERA over his last three starts.
"He's probably the best unheralded pitcher in our league," Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch said after Johnson pitched seven scoreless innings and tacked on nine K’s to boot. "He doesn't get a lot of attention down here in Florida, but he's pretty good. He's got a lot of weapons and knows how to pitch."
That’s probably why the notoriously-cheap Marlins decided to sign the young stud to a four-year extension. Florida backers should be able to grab Johnson and the Fish at a cheap price going against Roy Halladay and the Phillies.
Slumping
CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
CC has been up and down this year but since he’s always a heavy – no pun intended – favorite, bettors are a little bit more critical. The southpaw pitcher, who earns over $600,000, a start hasn’t won a decision since May 3.
He was touched up for five earned runs in five innings of work Sunday night against the Mets, making it three out of four games where Sabathia failed to deliver a quality start for the Bronx Bombers.
His biggest problem is keeping the ball in the park. Sabathia has given up seven homers in his last four starts.
C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers
Wilson was enjoying great success in his transition from closer to starter, but he got rocked in his last two outings. Wilson has been charged with 12 earned runs in his last 10 innings.
The big fly has been Wilson’s problem too. He gave up one in his last start and the Angels took him out of the park twice in his previous appearance. While Wilson owns swing-and-miss stuff his WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is beginning to creep up.
MLB RoundUp For 5/29
By Dan Bebe
National League
Cards @ Cubs (-140) with a total of N/A
The Cards have seen little of Silva, and the Cubs have seen even less of the youngster, Ottavino. Silva, somehow, is a perfect 6-0 this season, and a career 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA against St. Louis. At this price, I wouldn't touch this game. I might consider the Cards, who seem to have woken up the last two days, but I'm thinking, and maybe we'll learn different as we work our way through the card, that there are better values out there!
Astros @ Reds (-175) with a total of 9
Geoff Blum is 8-for-14 with a HR and 3 RBI off Harang;
Carlos Lee is batting .382 with 1 HR and 8 RBI off Harang;
We actually faded Harang against the Astros in Houston, and the Reds won that game 6-2. Have we learned our lesson? Maybe. Harang is 10-9 in his career with a 4.71 ERA against the 'Stros, so it could go either way, but given that the Reds are simply a better team than the Astros, there's a reason this line is somewhat inflated. I really dislike Moehler as a starter - this is desperation time for Houston, and while a volume guy might like the dog, here, I'd pass.
Mets @ Brewers (-125) with a total of 9.5
It's a weekend blog, so I think you guys will cut me some slack if I just say the following: "I don't trust either starter; I don't trust the Mets on the road; I don't trust the Brewers anywhere." Pass.
Phillies (-125) @ Marlins with a total of 7
Ryan Howard is 8-for-24 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Johnson;
Greg Dobbs is 4-for-8 with a HR and 2 RBI off Johnson.
We already did a Florida team profile against Halladay a month ago, and Roy tossed 8 innings of 2-run ball in a winning effort against the Fish. Johnson hasn't faced the Phils yet this year, so we went ahead and listed two of the Phillies bats that hit him relatively hard. Johnson is 4-2 against Philadelphia lifetime, but that 4.25 ERA is significantly higher than his numbers against a lot of other teams. He's rolling right now, though, and this is hell of a battle of aces. Too close to call, in my opinion.
Pirates @ Braves (-200) with a total of 9
Medlen has been effective since moving into the starting rotation, and unless there was a real clear reason to play the dog, this one is a pure pass.
Dodgers @ Rockies (-130) with a total of 9.5
Casey Blake is 3-for-8 with 3 RBI off Cook;
Blake DeWitt is 4-for-11 off Cook;
Manny Ramirez is 5-for-11 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Cook.
Again, trying to save space and energy, we've already done a list on Colorado's numbers against Kuroda, and Hiroki has not pitched well against the Rox, at all. This is just one of those teams that has his number, and even though the Dodgers won his last start against Colorado, Kuroda didn't pitch well, and his lifetime 0-2, 6.94 mark against them is warranted. Cook hasn't been great against LA, and hasn't been great this year, but Kuroda's clunker of a career against the Rox makes this line pretty fair.
Nationals @ Padres (-185) with a total of 7
We're staring down the barrel of another huge line, but a warranted one. J.D. Martin is an up-and-coming talent who did actually pitch well against the Padres in the past, but Latos is really coming on strong after being too inefficient with his pitches early. This line is alright, I suppose. Pass.
D'backs @ Giants (-165) with a total of 8.5
Conor Jackson is 9-for-16 off Sanchez with 2 HR and 5 RBI;
Kelly Johnson is 4-for-7 off Sanchez;
Adam LaRoche is 2-for-3 with a HR off Sanchez;
Ryan Roberts, Chris Snyder, Justin Upton and Chris Young are each batting right around .300 off Sanchez, but none is really "crazy" enough to make its own clause;
Pablo Sandoval is 5-for-7 with a HR and 3 RBI off Buckner;
Juan Uribe is 4-for-9 with a HR and 2 RBI off Buckner.
I'm absolutely freaked out by the total number, here. Sanchez has been creamed by the D'backs in his career, going 4-6 with a 5.19 ERA against Arizona, and Buckner, in limited action, has been hit hard by the few Giants that have seen him. I can't help but think this one could go up and Over the total, but the number is so low, and I need to really put the pieces together as to why. If both pitchers are going to throw well, that means there's value with Arizona, but we have more work to do here!
American League
Indians @ Yankees (-320) with a total of 9.5
Mark Grudzielanek is 9-for-30 with 4 RBI off Sabathia since '05;
Mike Redmond is 13-for-26 with 6 RBI off Sabathia since '05.
I'm starting to think that playing any +275 or higher underdog for a 1/4 unit might be a good move. In fact, let's start tracking these favorites up and over -300. We can go back and hunt down the ones that have already happened, if we're feeling saucy, but there's absolutely no value in backing a favorite of this size.
Orioles @ Blue Jays (-185) with a total of 9
Looks like each of these guys has faced the other team before, but we're going off some very weak data. Tillman makes his first start of 2010 after finishing up '09 in the Bigs. He's 0-1 with a 4.63 ERA against the Jays. Cecil is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA against the O's, so really, this line is probably about right. You may have heard on the weekend podcast that Sac Lawson really likes Tillman's stuff, and if he breaks in this year with a bang, there might be a tiny bit of value with the dog, but this one is a pure volume bettor special.
Mariners @ Angels (-200) with a total of 8.5
Milton Bradley is 3-for-9 with a HR off Weaver;
Franklin Gutierrez is 4-for-11 with 3 RBI off Weaver;
Jose Lopez is 12-for-38 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Weaver.
Ian Snell is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA against the Angels, and Weaver, despite the 4.24 ERA against Seattle, is 9-3 against them, and has always been a strong home pitcher. No thanks to this one!
Rangers @ Twins (-125) with a total of 8.5
Julio Borbon is 3-for-5 off Pavano;
Ian Kinsley is 5-for-6 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Pavano;
Michael Young is 4-for-8 off Pavano.
Carl Pavano no likey the Rangers. How's that for clever? Yeah, not really. In any case, Pavano is a career 13.09 ERA pitcher against Texas, and while there's been some turnover, Ian Kinsler has "ownage" on Pavano, as you can see. Pavano has not beaten Texas, and while Pavano continues to be an innings-eater, he hasn't been outstanding in his last couple starts. I would love Texas if Wilson wasn't coming off two horrid outings. Young guys usually have 2 bad starts, but 3 is questionable, so we hit a little handicapping impasse. Still, despite Wilson's recent struggles, being a lefty against Mauer, Morneau and Kubel should give him a shot. Lean to Tejas.
Athletics @ Tigers (-125) with a total of 8.5
Jack Cust is 3-for-8 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Porcello;
Ryan Sweeney is 4-for-6 off Porcello;
Miguel Cabrera is 3-for-5 off Anderson;
Johnny Damon is 3-for-10 with 2 RBI off Anderson;
Magglio Ordonez is 3-for-4 off Anderson.
Brett Anderson hasn't started in a bit, making his last appearance in late April, but was off to a very strong start in 2010 beforehand. Betting on a pitcher making his return from injury is never a "safe" play, but there's something to be said for this one. Porcello is 1-2 lifetime against Oakland with a 6.32 ERA, but the concern is that he's been pitching better in his last few starts. I think the positives and negatives balance pretty well, here, with Detroit very good at home, and the A's with the apparent match-up edge.
White Sox @ Rays (-130) with a total of 8.5
John Danks is a world class Rays-killer. He's 5-1 against Tampa with a 2.35 ERA, including 8 innings of 1-run ball earlier this season. Wade Davis is 1-0 against the White Sox, going 6 shutout frames in Chicago earlier this season. This could very well be an Under play, if indeed these guys can toss solid follow-ups to that game. The Rays have actually been in a bit of an offensive slump the last 3-4 days, so that might contribute, as well, and if the White Sox continue to rely almost exclusively on Konerko and Rios to get anything on the offensive side, we might see a game decided with 5-6 runs.
Royals @ Red Sox (-135) with a total of 8.5
J.D. Drew is 3-for-8 off Greinke;
Victor Martinez is 14-for-35 with a HR and 8 RBI off Greinke;
Marco Scutaro is 6-for-13 with 4 RBI off Greinke.
Greinke was 1-3 with a 3.18 ERA off Boston, but most of that was before the Red Sox acquired 2 bats (Martinez and Scutaro) that have had success against Greinke, and that's reason for concern if you're going to back KC. It looks like a nice price on Greinke, but sometimes you have to just tip your cap to bad luck, and Greinke, no matter if he pitches well or poorly, just seems to find a way to not win, if that makes sense. Buchholz is 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA against KC, and we all remember his work against them in '08. I'd be careful grabbing at the dog, here, as I just don't know if I trust the KC pen to keep pitching well with that tiny left field in Fenway.
Tips and Trends
Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins
Phillies (-125, O/U 7): Philadelphia finally snapped their losing streak with a win yesterday against the Marlins. The Phillies had lost 5 in a row prior to yesterday's 3-2 victory. Offensively, the Phillies have scored a total of 6 runs in their last 6 games. 4 of those 6 games, Philadelphia has been held scoreless. Despite their struggles, the Phillies lead the National League East with a 27-20 record. Philadelphia actually has a better road record than home record this year, as they are 14-10 away from home. P Roy Halladay will take the mound tonight, as he looks to get back on track. Despite being 6-3 on the season, the Phillies have lost each of the past 3 starts made by Halladay. Halladay has an ERA of 2.22 and a WHIP of 1.10 this season. The Phillies are 14-6 in their last 20 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter. Philadelphia is 0-4 in their last 4 games as the listed favorite of -110 to -150. Philadelphia is 4-0 in Halladays' last 4 starts against the National League East.
Phillies are 3-7 last 10 games as a road favorite.
Under is 7-0 last 7 against the National League East.
Key Injuries - SS Jimmy Rollins (calf) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Marlins: Florida might only be 1 game below .500 at 24-25 this season, yet they are in last place in the National League East. In their past 8 games, Florida has had 2 three game losing streaks. The Marlins have been held to 3 runs or fewer in each of the past 3 games entering tonight. The Marlins are an even 13-13 this year when playing at home. P Josh Johnson will look to keep up his stellar record this year. Johnson is 5-1 this year, with an ERA of 2.43 and a WHIP of 1.03. The Marlins are 2-5 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter. Florida is 1-7 in their last 8 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Florida is 4-0 in Johnsons' last 4 starts as a home underdog. The Marlins are 15-3 in Johnsons' last 18 home starts against a team with a winning record.
Marlins are 8-22 last 30 games as a home underdog.
Over is 8-1 last 9 games a home underdog.
Key Injuries - C John Baker (elbow) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 2