NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (12-17) at Philadelphia (18-11)
The Braves give young right-hander Kris Medlen (1-1, 2.55 ERA) his first start of the season, while the streaking Phillies counter with Joe Blanton as this three-game weekend series between N.L. East rivals continues at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia got a complete-game, two-hitter from 47-year-old lefty Jamie Moyer on Friday and won its fourth in a row by routing Atlanta 7-0. The Phillies, who have surrendered just three runs during their four-game win streak, have also won six of their last seven, and they’re on additional surges of 45-22 at home, 5-1 versus the N.L. East and 21-8 against right-handed starters. However, Charlie Manuel’s squad has dropped 11 of 15 on Saturday.
The Braves are 1-3 on their current road trip and they’ve lost 12 of 16 overall, scoring three runs or fewer in 10 of the 12 defeats. Bobby Cox’s club has also lost 10 of 11 on the road and is in further slumps of 3-14 against N.L. East rivals, 3-7 against right-handed starters and 1-9 versus winning teams. The one positive for the Braves: They’ve won 10 of 14 on Saturday.
These teams faced off two weeks ago in Atlanta, and the Phillies took two of three. Going back to last season Philadelphia is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
Medlen has made 12 relief appearances this season and he’s surrendered six runs (five earned), 16 hits and three walks while striking out 16 over 17 2/3 innings. The 24-year-old California native made four starts as a rookie last year, giving up 13 runs in 18 1/3 innings (6.38 ERA), with the Braves going 1-3 in those four contests.
Medlen has faced the Phillies seven times (all in relief), allowing six runs on 10 hits in eight innings (6.75 ERA).
Blanton, who spent the first month of the season on the disabled list, finally made his first start Monday and got smacked around by the Cardinals, allowing four runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 home loss. Including three playoff starts, Blanton has allowed 22 runs (21 earned) in his last five starts spanning 30 1/3 innings (6.23 ERA).
Behind Blanton, the Phillies are on runs of 17-8 at home and 15-7 versus the N.L. East, but they’ve lost Blanton’s last four Saturday outings. Since getting traded from Oakland to Philadelphia in the middle of the 2008 season, Blanton has faced the Braves six times, going 1-1 with a 5.42 ERA. However, in two August starts two weeks apart last year, Blanton pitched seven innings in each contest and held Atlanta to three total runs (two earned), with Philadelphia winning both games by a 3-2 score.
The Braves are on “under” runs of 13-5-1 overall, 8-3-1 against right-handed starters and 5-1-1 against the N.L. East, but the over is 5-2-1 in their last eight on Saturday. Meanwhile, it’s been all “overs” for Philadelphia lately, including 13-7-1 at home, 11-6 versus division rivals, 14-4 against losing teams, 5-1 at home against losing teams and 25-13-2 versus right-handed starters. Also, the over is 4-1-1 in Blanton’s last six starts overall, but the under is 6-2-2 in his last 10 against the N.L. East and 5-1 in his last six on Saturday.
Finally, the under has been the play in 10 of the last 14 series meetings and five of the last six clashes at Citizens Bank, and the under is 3-0-1 in Blanton’s last four starts against Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (20-8) at Boston (15-15)
CC Sabathia (4-1, 2.74 ERA) looks to atone for a poor Opening Night outing at Fenway Park when he leads the Yankees against Clay Buchholz (3-2, 2.97) and the Red Sox in the middle game of a weekend series between division rivals.
New York used a six-run sixth inning to bust Friday’s game wide open and cruised to a 10-3 victory, running its winning streak to five in a row while halting Boston’s four-game uptick. Additionally, the Yankees have followed up a 1-4 slump by winning eight of nine, with all eight wins being by multiple runs. In fact, all 20 of the Yankees’ victories this year – and 26 of their 28 contests overall – have been decided by at least two runs. The defending champs are on further runs of 39-15 overall, 43-14 against divisional foes, 61-22 versus right-handed starters and 5-1 on Saturday.
Despite Friday’s debacle, Boston is still 11-6 in its last 17 games, going 8-3 at Fenway during this stretch, and the Sox have won five in a row against left-handed starters. On the downside, Terry Francona’s troops are in ruts of 6-17 against the A.L. East and 4-18 versus opponents with a winning percentage higher than .600.
The Yankees have now won three straight meetings against Boston – all at Fenway Park – since losing on Opening Night. Also, since dropping the first eight meetings with the Red Sox last year, New York is on a 12-2 roll against its archrivals, winning five of the last seven at Fenway. Still, the home team is 15-7 in the last 22 head-to-head battles.
Sabathia gave up five runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings in a season-opening start in Boston on April 4, failing to get a decision in New York’s 9-7 loss. Since then, however, the hefty lefty has delivered five straight quality starts, giving up a combined nine runs (eight earned) in 37 1/3 innings (1.71 ERA). On Monday, he limited Baltimore to a run on six hits in eight innings of a 4-1 home win.
With Sabathia on the bump, New York is on positive stretches of 21-5 overall, 10-3 on the highway, 9-2 against the A.L. East, 5-0 on Saturday and 5-0 in the second game of a series. Since the Opening Night loss in Boston, Sabathia is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA in three road games. Finally, he’s now 5-7 with a 4.39 ERA in 12 career starts (playoffs included) against the Red Sox (2-3, 5.05 ERA in seven games at Fenway Park).
Buchholz surrendered a season-high four runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Angels on Monday, but the Red Sox offense picked him up and rolled to a 17-8 victory. Buchholz is now 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA in three home games this year, with Boston supporting the right-hander with 7.3 runs per game.
The Sox have won 12 of Buchholz’s last 16 starts, but they’re 4-12 in his last 16 against winning teams and 1-4 in his last five Saturday efforts. Buchholz has a 5.74 ERA in three starts against the Yankees, with Boston losing all three games. However, he pitched well in two of the contests, giving up one run in six innings of a 4-1 home loss in 2008 and two runs in six inning of a 5-0 road loss last August.
New York is on “over” runs of 15-5-2 on the road, 4-1-1 against righty starters, 4-1 on Saturday, 17-4 when Sabathia pitches on the road and 4-1 when Sabathia faces division rivals. Meanwhile, Boston has topped the total in five straight games on Saturday, four of five against lefty starters, seven of Buchholz’s last nine starts overall and five of his last six home outings.
Finally, the over has cashed in three of four meetings between these teams this year, and seven of the last eight clashes at Fenway have climbed over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
MLB RoundUp For 5/8
By Dan Bebe
National League
Marlins @ Nationals with a total of N/A
Not sure who's going for the Nats here.
Giants @ Mets (-185) with a total of 8.5
Aubrey Huff is 4-for-12 with a HR and 3 RBI off Santana since '05;
Bengie Molina is 7-for-18 with a HR and 5 RBI off Santana since '05;
Pablo Sandoval is 5-for-7 with a HR and 2 RBI off Santana;
Luis Castillo is 5-for-9 off Wellemeyer;
David Wright is 8-for-11 off Wellemeyer;
Jeff Francoeur is 2-for-5 with a HR and 2 RBI off Wellemeyer.
Todd Wellemeyer is actually a decent value here, if the Giants could mount an offensive attack against Santana. Unfortunately, I don't really trust Wellemeyer. I wouldn't take the home team at this price, but I wouldn't back a road team with a pitcher that could give up 5 runs in 3 innings.
Braves @ Phillies (-145) with a total of 10
Chipper Jones is 4-for-12 off Blanton;
Brian McCann is 6-for-16 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Blanton;
Martin Prado is 5-for-9 with 2 HR off Blanton;
Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jayson Werth are a combined 4-for-4 off Medlen.
The Braves are just horrible. I thought they'd pull out of their tailspin, but they beat up on some other awful teams for 2 series, and then went right back to ugly ball -- not hitting, not fielding, and barely pitching. This isn't a team I can back under any circumstances, but Blanton is fresh off injury (1 start under his belt), so I'd rather not take chances on his side, either.
Padres (-140) @ Astros with a total of 9
Jerry Hairston, Jr. is 2-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Paulino;
Michael Bourn is 5-for-10 off Garland;
Jason Michaels is 4-for-8 with a HR and 2 RBI off Garland.
Jon Garland has come out of the gates humming, going 3-2 with a 2.06 ERA, and the Padres continue to play great baseball. The Astros give the ball to Felipe Paulino, arguably one of the most reliably bad starters in the Majors. There really isn't much value here on either team, but sometimes you can look at a game and just know a particular team is bent on winning. Lean to Padres.
Cardinals (-185) @ Pirates with a total of 8
No real historical numbers to go off, here, which makes me think that the very, very low total is telling us something. For one, Garcia's 1.13 ERA thus far is keeping the total low, but Jeff Karstens hasn't exactly been an "ace" with his current 6.17 ERA. I don't really like either side, since the Pirates are pretty bad, and the Cardinals price is too high, but I think this total of 8 is low for a reason. Let's keep an eye on this one.
Cubs (-120) @ Reds with a total of 9
Mike Fontenot is 7-for-18 with 3 HR and 7 RBI off Harang;
Kosuke Fukudome is 6-for-15 off Harang;
Xavier Nady is batting .370 off Harang since '05 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Aramis Ramirez is batting .310 off Harang with 3 HR and 7 RBI since '05;
Geovany Soto is 5-for-15 with a HR off Harang.
It just seems like everywhere you look, someone is teeing off on Aaron Harang. My concern here is that oddsmakers know this, too. Still, the Cubs put on a nice offensive show against Homer Bailey, and sometimes visiting a nice hitters' park in Cincinnati can be just what the doctor ordered for a slumping offense. Gorzelanny is just 1-3 this year, but his ERA of 2.48 shows he's getting the job done. Lean to Cubbies.
Brewers @ D'backs (-110) with a total of 10
Adam LaRoche is 6-for-15 with a HR and 3 RBI off Wolf;
Chris Snyder is 3-for-10 off Wolf.
This line is giving a ton of credit to the youngster Valdez making just his second Major League start. I'm actually pretty interested in this game, as I'm proud to say that I got to know Cesar while he was in Visalia with the D'backs Class-A club. The guy has an absolutely nasty sinker, a big curve, and a decent splitter - he was way too good for A-ball, but I think after a few starts Big Leaguers will catch up. I'm just not sure that time has come, yet. The Brewers hit-or-miss offense is the bigger question mark, here, which makes this game somewhat tough to cap.
Rockies @ Dodgers (-110) with a total of 8.5
Another game with darn near nothing to work off, other than what we know. Chacin, another guy that pitched against my Oaks during my time in Visalia, but this one is more the "young phenom" to yesterday's starter (Rogers) slow, methodical back-of-the-rotation stuff. Chacin is very tough, throws hard, has a wide selection of pitches, and is a guy the Rockies are pretty excited about. Haeger is a knuckleballer, end of story. A pitch that's as tough to handicap as it gets, and the line reflects that. This game is basically a Pick, despite the Rockies being on the road. That tells me the Rox get a few runs, but I'm not sure playing against the Dodgers at home is always a wise choice.
American League
Tigers (-147) @ Indians with a total of 8
Andy Marte is 3-for-10 off Verlander;
Miguel Cabrera was 3-for-3 off Masterson in the past with a HR and 3 RBI.
This one is pending yesterday's game actually finishing, as the weather here in the Northern Midwest is just hideous right now. Verlander has poor career numbers against the Indians, but it's tough to really pinpoint why. Seems as though the Indians just come up with a big home run to put 2-3 runs on the board, and Verlander can't come up with one of those shut-down wins against Cleveland. It might be a mental thing, but that's as important as anything physical. Pass.
Orioles @ Twins (gm1); K. Millwood vs. F. Liriano
Michael Cuddyer is 10-for-23 off Millwood since '05 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Orlando Hudson is 6-for-8 off Millwood since '05 with 2 RBI;
Jason Kubel is 5-for-15 with a HR and 2 RBI off Millwood;
Justin Morneau is 7-for-19 with 3 HR and 10 RBI off Millwood since '05;
Nick Punto is 10-for-21 off Millwood since '05.
Feel free to look back at yesterday to see why most folks are going to bet on Liriano, and they'll probably win, but this chalk isn't in our best interest. Move along, nothing to see here.
Orioles @ Twins (gm2); J. Guthrie vs. S. Baker
Jim Thome has homered 3 times off Guthrie since '05;
Joe Mauer is 3-for-6 off Guthrie;
Jason Kubel is 3-for-8 with a HR off Guthrie.
Despite those 3, Guthrie is actually 1-0, 2.84 against Minnesota. Baker is 3-0, 2.93 against the O's, so some decent numbers from the starters. We'll see what the weather's like and how the pace of the first game goes. We can also know what members of the pen are available in game two. Slight lean to the Under when we see the number, but again, with the double-header, it can be tough to know exactly who's going to play and more importantly, who is going to play hard/well.
Yankees (-150) @ Red Sox with a total of 9
Robinson Cano (if he plays) is 3-for-8 off Buccholz;
David Ortiz is 5-for-14 off Sabathia with a HR since '05;
Marco Scutaro is 4-for-12 off Sabathia.
C.C. has started 2010 much quicker than usual, posting a 4-1 record and 2.74 ERA out of the gates. Clay Buccholz is doing a nice job, as well, though he hasn't done anything impressive against the Yanks. This is a poor value in a rivalry game, and even though I think the Yankees are the vastly superior club, you just never know in Fenway. Pass.
Rays (-160) @ A's with a total of 8.5
Pat Burrell was 4-for-12 off Sheets before this season with 2 HR.
These two pitchers faced off a little over a week ago and the teams battled to a 8-6 Rays victory, with Sheets giving up all 8 of those runs, and Davis allowing 4 of his own. Sheets is really struggling lately after a nice start to the year, while Davis seems to be getting better with almost every start. This line is probably accurate, though it's tough to see Sheets giving up 8 runs again to the same team. Tough call, here, which means I probably pass.
Blue Jays @ White Sox (-125) with a total of 8
Alex Gonzalez is 4-for-9 off Peavy;
Fred Lewis is 4-for-9 off Peavy.
Jake Peavy has been pretty darn bad so far this season for the Sox, posting an ERA over 6. Brett Cecil has been solid for the Jays, with an ERA of 2.61. So, why are the Sox favored? Honestly, it's a good question, and I don't have a great answer. Peavy did go 7 shutout frames his last time out against the Royals, so maybe he's turning a corner? The Jays almost look too easy. This one needs more digging.
Royals @ Rangers (-180) with a total of 10
Ryan Garko is batting .321 off Meche since '05 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Michael Young is 12-for-24 off Meche with a HR and 6 RBI since '05.
This is another one of those games that tempts me to take the home team on the RL, though you guys know how I feel about those. Still, the current Royals are 2-for-32 off Harden. Yep, you read that correctly. Meche, meanwhile, has an ERA of 9.89, and looks just as horrid as ever. If ever there was a game where the normal outcome is a home team blowout, this has that tattoo on it.
Angels @ Mariners (-150) with a total of 7.5
Interestingly, despite the 7.04 ERA, Saunders has very strong numbers against the Mariners, 7-1 in his career, in fact. Fister is 1-0 against the Angels, and has the lowest ERA in the American League right now. Tough call, here, since we know the Angels can score, but they've been slumping a bit. Something about this game, though, where everything points to the Mariners on paper feels like one of those contests where the Angels just swoop in and steal it.
Fox Saturday Baseball
By Judd Hall
If it’s Saturday, then Fox must have some national broadcasts of Major League Baseball between showings of American Idol. They’re offering up just two games that will give some early divisional bragging rights to the winners. Let’s look at these contests.
Yankees (20-8, +887) at Red Sox (15-14, -457) – 3:10 p.m. EDT
Is it possible that the Red Sox are finally finding their groove?
Leading up to its series opener with the Yankees, Boston is rolling along after a four-game sweep at home of the Angels. The Sox’s offense teed off on Los Angeles’ pitching to the tune of 36 runs. To give you an idea of how impressive that is, the BoSox scored 38 combined in their eight games before facing the Halos. And David Ortiz went just 2-for-7 in the series with one homer. That brings him up to a robust .171 batting average with four home runs and seven runs batted in for the season.
Clay Buchholz (3-2, 2.97) is coming into this game as one of the Red Sox’s best pitching options right now. He has won his last two starts by giving up five earned runs in 13.2 innings of work. There is room for improvement with Buchholz as just six strikeouts to five walks in those contests (He had 10 K’s to 1 BB on April 27 at Toronto).
What can be said about the Yankees that hasn’t already been said? They are in the Top 5 in team hitting (.276), runs scored (151) and four-baggers (34). New York also has a pitching staff that is fifth in team earned run average (3.45), sixth fewest walks surrendered (88) and fourth in WHIP (1.22). And gamblers have enjoyed taking the Yanks on the run line (-1 ½ runs) as they’ve covered that spread in all 19 wins this season.
The Yanks will send C.C. Sabathia (4-1, 2.74) out to the mound on Saturday afternoon. He’s been a workhorse for New York so far, lasting at least 7.2 innings in his last three starts. And the opposition is having a devil of a time hitting him, evidenced by a .212 average.
New York has to feel confident about taking this series after winning two of three at Fenway Park to open the 2010 campaign. The ‘over’ cashed in two of those tilts as well. Boston fans shouldn’t fret as they’ve won seven of last year’s nine meetings at home with the Bronx Bombers.
The BoSox have gone 5-2 at home this year against southpaws, including a recent 3-0 run.
The ‘over’ is 15-11-1 for the Yankees this season, 9-5-1 on the road.
Boston has watched the ‘over’ go 14-13-1 in 2010, 10-7 when played at Fenway.
Braves (12-17, -776) at Phillies (18-11, +319) – 3:10 p.m. EDT
Just when you thought that the Braves were back in business, reality slaps them across the face.
Atlanta appeared to have bounced back from a nine-game losing skid by sweeping the Astros at home to start off the month. But they fell apart right after that, dropping two of three in our nation’s capital to the Nationals. The Braves are now a startling 4-12 away from Turner Field this season.
Bobby Cox will turn to Kris Medlin (1-1, 2.55) to stop the bleeding. It’s hard to tell if Medlin has the goods to turn things around since he hasn’t pitched more than three innings in any appearances this season. He hasn’t started a game for the Braves since mid-July of 2009, the last of his four starts last year. Atlanta went 1-3 in that small set of starts from Medlin.
Things are going just fine for the Phillies right now. They’ve won five of their last six games, covering the run line in four of those tests. And if that weren’t enough, their security staff tased a 17-year-old numbnut, to the delight of everyone at Citizens Bank Park (and my endless laughter).
Joe Blanton (0-1, 5.40) will be making his second start of the season after spending the first month of the season on the disabled list with a strained left oblique. In his first outing of the year, Blanton allowed four earned runs on 10 hits in 6.2 innings of work en route to a 6-3 loss at home to the Cardinals. Not a terrible performance considering St. Louis is one of the National League’s better clubs.
Atlanta has gone 11-20 as a road pup in day games over the last two seasons, losing both spots in 2010. The ‘over’ is 18-13 in that stretch, which includes 5-0 run.
Philly does well at home in daytime affairs, evidenced by a 34-23 mark dating back to the start of the 2009 campaign. The ‘over’ is 32-24-1 in those contests and 4-1 in the Phils’ last five.
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