MLB News and Notes Saturday 6/12

Saturday's Afternoon Tips
By Chris David

The folks at the FOX network return to the diamond this Saturday with another pair of televised battles, with this week’s coverage focusing on interleague action. Let’s take a closer look.

**White Sox at Cubs**

Since Interleague play started in 1997, the Windy City Series has been close to even. In the first 72 games, the White Sox hold a 37-35 edge over the Cubs, including a 4-2 performance last season.

On Friday afternoon, Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox doubled-up the Cubs 10-5 in the first game of this year’s crosstown series. A combined 26 hits and 15 runs helped the total easily go ‘over’ the closing number of 10 ½ runs. While this series usually receives top billing in the Windy City, this particular game played second fiddle to the Blackhawks, who won their first Stanley Cup on Wednesday.

The White Sox will send Mark Buehrle (3-6, 5.40 ERA) to the mound on Saturday and the club has won three of his last four starts, which is good news considering the team went 2-6 in his first eight starts. The 3-1 record is solid, but Buehrle’s also benefited from 27 runs from his offensive over this four-game span. Don’t be surprised to see a good effort here, especially when you look at his interleague stats. He’s tied for the most career interleague wins (20) and since 2008, Buehrle is 6-0 with a 1.71 ERA in nine starts against NL opponents. Total players might want to make a note that the ‘over’ has gone 7-4-1 in his 12 appearances this season.

Even though Chicago is eight games under .500 and eight games behind the Reds for the NL Central lead, the team has had one bright spot this season and its pitcher Carlos Silva (8-0, 2.93 ERA). The veteran is having a career season and Chicago fans couldn’t have imagined his success. The Cubs have won 10 straight starts with Silva on the hill after losing first his appearance, a 5-4 loss at Cincinnati back in early April. The total has gone 5-3-3 in Silva’s 11 games this year, but his last three have all gone ‘under.’ It will be curious to see if Silva can keep his success going this afternoon, considering he’s struggled against the White Sox (4-10, 5.52 ERA) over his career.

The Cubs have gone 14-14 at home this season, while the White Sox have produced a 12-15 mark on the road.

**Phillies at Red Sox**

Boston and Philadelphia meet for the second time this season, with this three-game set taking place at Fenway Park. The Red Sox took two of three from the Phillies in May and have now won four of the last six encounters between the pair. Since the two teams started squaring off in their interleague battles, Boston has gotten better of Philadelphia at home. The Red Sox have won eight of 12 and six of the last seven, but the pair hasn’t played at this venue since 2006.

The oddsmakers opened Boston as a $1.50 home favorite (Bet $150 to win $100) for Saturday and the number seems fair considering the recent encounters, plus the pitching matchup. The Red Sox dominated the Phillies 12-2 on Friday behind David Ortiz's bat and John Lackey's arm. The combined 14 runs easily jumped 'over' the closing number of 10.

After missing the first month of the season, Daisuke Matsuzaka (5-2, 4.59 ERA) is starting to get into a solid groove. Boston has won five of his eight starts this season, including three of the last four. During this run, the Japanese product has surrendered six earned runs and 17 hits in 27 1/3 innings. His control has been up and down, evidenced by 14 walks during over this span. Dice-K has already faced the Phillies this season on May 22 and he just missed a no-hitter. Despite giving up a hit in the bottom of the eighth, his teammates preserved the 5-0 shutout win.

The Phillies will counter with Joe Blanton (1-4, 6.07 ERA) and the hefty hurler also got a late jump on the season and he’s still looking for his form. Philadelphia is 2-5 in his seven starts, which includes three straight losses. Even though his numbers haven’t been consistent this season, Blanton (3-2, 3.61 ERA) has decent stats over his career against Boston, with eight of his nine starts coming with his stay in Oakland. Last year with the Phils, Blanton came up on the wrong side of a 5-2 loss to Boston, but he only gave up two earned runs.

The total on this game is sitting at 10 runs, which could be a tad high when you look at Phillies’ offense. Ironically, the drought started against Boston and Dice-K. Including that shutout, Philadelphia has scored 39 runs over its last 17 games, which translates to an average of 2.3 runs per games. It should be noted that All-Star Jimmy Rollins went on the DL at the start of this skid, which has watched the Phillies go 5-12 over this span.

Philadelphia has gone 15-14 on the road this season, while Boston owns an 18-14 record at home.

vegasinsider.com

MLB RoundUp for 6/12
by Dan Bebe

National League

Cardinals @ Diamondbacks (-140) with a total of 9
Matt Holliday is 5-for-11 with 2 HR and 3 RBI.
Interestingly, Haren has faced the Cards already this year, and despite giving up 7 runs in 6 innings, the D'backs won 9-7. This is a different Haren now than in April, though, as his pitches are finally starting to dance, and his numbers are slowly creeping back from awful to mediocre. Pitching at home is tough, though, as Chase Field seems to get more and more hitter friendly by the year, and Haren struggled a bit with the Braves at home 5 days ago. He's 3-0 against the Cards with a 4.29 ERA, but that number was massaged north by the 7-run effort this season. Ottavino has been, well, not good in his two starts, and you have to think the D'backs are going to score a few off him, but is this price too much for a team that can't protect a late 2-run lead? Leans: D'backs

Interleague Play

Astros @ Yankees (-245) with a total of 9.5
I'd love to say that THIS is the time to fade the Yankees at home, but it just doesn't seem quite right. Wandy is having an off year, and has a 9.00 ERA against the Yanks in his brief work against them. Houston is playing better, to their credit, but the Yanks are just dominant at their palace in the Bronx, and Vazquez, for as bad as he started the year, is still a guy that had top-5 stuff in the NL last year, and he's just now starting to find his velocity. Leans: None

White Sox @ Cubs (-155) with a total of N/A
Paul Konerko is batting .321 with 1 HR and 6 RBI off Silva since '05;
A.J. Pierzynski is batting .296 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Silva since '05;
Derrek Lee is 3-for-10 with 3 RBI off Buerhle since '05.
I was looking for a way to back the White Sox at a dog price in this one, but this is another spot where I'm just not pleased with the numbers on the underdog side, either. Silva is just 4-10 in his career against the Southsiders, and posts a 5.52 ERA, but most of that work came a few years back, so there's been turnover, and even the guys that hit him hard haven't seen much of him lately. Buerhle is having a terrible season, and is showing zero signs of busting out of his slump. The Cubs have won Silva's last 10 starts, he's 8-0, and this is Cubs or nothin'. Leans: Cubs

Phillies @ Red Sox (-156) with a total of 10
Mike Cameron is 4-for-9 with 3 HR and 5 RBI off Blanton since '05;
J.D. Drew is 5-for-15 with a HR and 2 RBI off Blanton since '05;
Big Papi is 7-for-23 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Blanton since '05;
Kevin Youkilis is 7-for-21 with a HR and 2 RBI off Blanton.
Blanton still looks a bit lost, and while he's likely to hit his stride at some point, it hasn't happened yet. Matsuzaka is actually pitching quite well, lately, and has his season ERA down to just 4.59. This line is pretty fair, even though Blanton has pitched alright against the Sox in his career (3-2, 3.61). He's just not there physically, and until a pitcher is at full strength, almost any line is actually going to be a tiny bit of value (even if it's just a nickel) on the other side. Leans: Red Sox

Mets (-115) @ Orioles with a total of 9
The Orioles continue to be in that rare category of being completely radioactive. I would love to fade the Mets on the road, but the Orioles are just completely hapless. I mean, it's gotten to that point where even though the Mets are a great road fade, and Brian Matusz has good enough stuff to shut down most teams (if he's on), the Orioles are just so completely inept with runners on base, and that bullpen is so pathetic (though new closer David Hernandez pitched well) that they're basically unbackable. Leans: None

Pirates @ Tigers (-185) with a total of 8.5
Ryan Church is 2-for-2 with an RBI off Bonderman.
Jeremy Bonderman is coming off a poor start against the Royals that raised his ERA considerably. He's had 2 other starts this year where he's just sort of blown up, and each time he's bounced back nicely the next time out, and for that reason, I don't really consider it a downward trend. Bonderman just doesn't have the velocity he used to, so when he's off his game, he's going to get hit hard. Maholm is a nice, solid lefthander, but we know what the Tigers can do to lefties. This is not a good time to back the road team, and the price is probably too high to consider a play on the home team. Leans: None

Nationals @ Indians (-129) with a total of 9
Adam Kennedy is 3-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBI off Carmona;
Ivan Rodriguez is 3-for-9 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Carmona.
This line seems intriguingly low, considering Carmona's name recognition. Jake Westbrook opened as a -110 favorite yesterday and went off at -129, and this is only 4 cents more? I'm not sure you can really call a line "fishy" when it's a Washington/Cleveland game, but I'm absolutely not sold on the reasoning behind this one. Still, looking at the numbers, Martin has pitched well in 2 starts, but we know he's not a 2.31 ERA guy long term, and Carmona just keeps rumbling along. He walked too many batters against the Red Sox in his last start, and got hit harder by the Yanks a few starts before that, but he would seem to be effective enough to shut down the Nats lesser offense. Leans: Indians

Braves @ Twins (-120) with a total of 9.5
Joe Mauer is a perfect 4-for-4 off Lowe;
Justin Morneau is 3-for-6 with a HR and 4 RBI off Lowe.
This is an interesting game, if mostly because Derek Lowe is getting us a very cheap price on the Twins. Do we want it, though? I think maybe. The Twins seem to find a way to win many of Blackburn's starts, even though the oddly pear-shaped righthander has a 5.21 ERA. He's never faced the Braves, so he will have his hands full, but Lowe is a career 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA against Minnesota, and the Twins are mashing at Target Field. The concern is that Blackburn is indeed coming off his 2 shortest starts of the season, so he's really struggling, but man does this price look tempting. Leans: Twins

Marlins @ Rays (-180) with a total of 8.5
Nolasco is 2-1 against the Rays, but has a 6.88 ERA. Maybe not the best time to be backing the big underdog. If we're going to lay our money down on a bit of a longshot (or semi-longshot, in this case), we're not going to do it unless the situation is damn near perfect. Garza is actually coming off 3 straight starts where he has been far from dominant, but Nolasco is right in that same boat, and Tampa has the huge bullpen edge. Leans: None

Royals @ Reds (-175) with a total of 8.5
You were looking for that big underdog with a decent shot? This one certainly is getting closer. Brian Bannister is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA against the Reds, and while that is the definition of "limited action", he's extremely reliable, and his 6-3 record is a nice indicator that run support is usually alright. Cueto is struggling just a tad, lately, giving up 10 hits in each of his last 2 starts, and 12 runs in 11 innings. Sure, it could be a 2-start blip, which happens to younger pitchers quite often, but the strikeout numbers aren't great, and I happen to think this slump could last another 1-2 starts before he gets things straightened out. The bullpen always makes the Royals a dangerous play, but they're definitely a good value these days, finding ways to win closer to 40% of games. Leans: Royals

Rangers @ Brewers (-110) with a total of 10
If we make a play on this game, it's going to be based largely on who works in the Brewers pen the previous game. There are, literally, 2 arms in that pen that I trust, and if those guys aren't fully rested, I'm not sure I can advocate playing on Milwaukee. I believe Feldman is going to give up 3-4 runs in this one, and that high total is indicative of that. Parra has actually been alright since sliding back into the starting rotation. He's building up that arm strength, and he racked up 10 big strikeouts in his last start against the Cards. The Brewers are miserable at home, so that's definitely a point of concern, but the Rangers offensive home/road splits make them an intriguing road fade. But, again, this lean is based on the opening line and the assumption that all relevant arms are available. Leans: Brewers

Blue Jays @ Rockies (-129) with a total of 9.5
Fred Lewis is 6-for-7 off Hammel;
Vernon Wells is 3-for-8 with a HR off Hammel.
Jason Hammel is 2-0 against the Jays, but that ERA of 5.87 stands out as less-than-stellar. He has, however, started to turn the corner this year, and has made 3 straight solid starts, including 2 very strong efforts here at Coors. Brandon Morrow is another guy that is on a wild upward swing. He's given up just 2 runs over his last 14 innings in 2 starts, those coming against the Rays and Yanks, 2 of the top offenses in baseball. If you're a Morrow fan, you're liking what you see. I think the first thing that jumps out in this game is that total. 9.5 is such an interesting number, especially when you have two pitchers with ERA's in the 5's getting the starting nod at Coors Field. That number is a strong, strong note, as oddsmakers could have easily opened this one up at 10, considering the two guys involved. Leans: Under

Mariners (-125) @ Padres with a total of 6
REMATCH ALERT! This is a really funny rematch, if only because the last game, a 6.5-total battle in Seattle, ended with the final score o 15-8, Cliff Lee giving up 7 runs in 6.1 innings, which was good enough for a win, somehow. Ah yes, I know how. LeBlanc has a career ERA of 24.92 against the Mariners, absolutely the one team that he never wants to see again. 8 runs in 3 innings is going to be a bit of a nausea-inducing contest. LeBlanc is coming off a nice start his last time out, and I'm intrigued by this incredibly low total. You have to think that the 23 combined runs would have at least kept the total at 6.5, but instead it's a half-run lower? Someone is throwing a complete game shutout, maybe both, but given LeBlanc's history with the Mariners, I'd think Lee is the safer play. Leans: Mariners, Under

Athletics @ Giants (-136) with a total of 7.5
Ben Sheets probably wishes he could just go back to facing NL teams. He's been decent enough this year, but pitched 6 shutout innings in his only start against the NL this year, that coming in a 3-0 win over these Giants. He's 4-2 with a 2.15 ERA lifetime against San Francisco, but, for what it's worth, the Giants are hitting the ball a bit better going into this meeting with the A's, and haven't had their spirits broken by series with the Padres. On the Giants side, Barry Zito gets the call, and aside from his dominance of the Rockies, Zito has been scuffling over the last month, or so. This line is low for a reason, and while I'm not sure the A's have the firepower to win (the Giants are pretty tough at home), I'm absolutely positive I don't trust Zito against his former team. Leans: Athletics

Angels @ Dodgers (-161) with a total of 8.5
The price just keeps rising on this young Dodgers hurler, and probably too high for me to get behind. Though, at the same time, I realize that you don't often get a chance to back one of the best home teams in baseball against a lefthander that can barely get a ball over the plate. Quietly, though, Kazmir has given up just 1 earned run in each of his last 2 starts, both Angels wins, so he's starting to find a little bit of a rhythm. You could probably convince me that there's value on the Angels side, given that Kazmir is trending way, way up, and Ely is sort of plateauing at "pretty good," but I'm not sure I can fade that Dodgers bullpen right now. Even if Kazmir keeps this game close...heck, even if the Angels are up by a run or two, Kazmir doesn't go deep in games, and the Angels middle relief is a very weak spot, and the Dodgers pen is dominant. Leans: None

Tips and Trends

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs

White Sox: Chicago is clearly more talented than a middle of the road team right? The White Sox have some sound pitching, yet they have one of the very worst offenses in baseball. As a result, the White Sox are only 26-33 for the year and 8.5 games behind the American Central Division leader. Chicago has scored 3 runs or fewer in 4 of their previous 6 games entering today. The battle of Chicago is always a heated rivalry, so the fans should be in for another treat. Chicago has been a terrible team from a betting standpoint, as they are down double digits both SU and on the RL this year. To be exact, the White Sox are -10.45 and -14.88 units respectively this year. Lefty Mark Buehrle has been a disappointment this year, as he is only 3-6 with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.49. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games against a right-handed starter. The White Sox are 3-8 in their last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The White Sox are 4-1 in Buehrle's last 5 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance. The White Sox are 20-6 in Buehrle's last 26 interleague starts overall.

White Sox are 6-2 last 8 interleague road games.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games against a team with a losing record.

Key Injuries - RF Carlos Quentin (rest) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)

Cubs (-142, O/U na): Chicago is coming off perhaps their worst fielding game of the season. Between the Cubs outfield and SS Starlin Castro, Chicago had 3 costly errors. It was only fitting that the Cubs would lose the game on a wild throw. The Cubs have frustrated their faithful fans this year, as they seem to lack any passion this year. It's been 14 long games since the Cubs last won consecutive games. Chicago is 27-33 this year, 7.5 games behind the Reds in the National League Central. The Cubs are only 14-13 this year at historic Wrigley Field. Chicago is -14.62 and -4.63 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. The lone bright spot for the Cubs this season has been P Carlos Silva. Silva is an amazing 8-0 this year, with an ERA of 2.93 and a WHIP of 1.06. The Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 games against a left-handed starter. The Cubs are 35-17 in their last 52 home games against a left-handed starter. Chicago is 1-7 in their last 8 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Cubs are 7-0 in Silva's last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Cubs are 4-1 last 5 interleague home games against a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-0 last 5 interleague games.

Key Injuries - 3B Aramis Ramirez (thumb) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants

Athletics: Oakland is leaning on their pitching staff to keep them afloat this season. The Athletics are 32-30 overall this year, 2 games behind the American League West division leader. The A's are 11-17 SU on the road this year. Oakland has played in numerous close games this year, proven by the difference in units SU and on the RL. Oakland is +3.68 and -6.56 units respectively this year. The A's have enjoyed playing close to home of late, as this will be their 3rd consecutive series in the Bay Area. Right hander Ben Sheets will take the mound tonight, as he looks to get rewarded for his work. Sheets hasn't had any run support this year, causing him to have a 2-5 record overall. Sheets has an ERA of 4.96 and a WHIP of 1.44 this year. The Athletics are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in San Francisco. The Athletics are 3-8 in their last 11 interleague road games. Oakland is 1-7 in their last 8 interleague road games against a team with a winning record.
Oakland is 1-5 in Sheets' last 6 road starts overall.

Athletics are 10-3 last 13 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Under is 9-1 last 10 Saturday games.

Key Injuries - C Kurt Suzuki (personal) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 2

Giants (-123, O/U 7.5): San Francisco has been dominant at home all season long, as they are 19-11 there. Despite losing each of their last 2 games, San Francisco is still 32-27 SU overall. The Giants are 3.5 games behind the hotly contested National League West leader. The Giants are +0.83 and -3.56 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. San Francisco is looking for some redemption after losing all 3 games against Oakland a few weeks ago. The Giants really struggled offensively in that series, scoring a total of 1 run over the 3 games series. Lefty P Barry Zito will face his old team tonight, so finding motivation won't be difficult. Zito is 6-2 this year overall, with an ERA of 3.15 and a WHIP of 1.24. The Giants are 6-14 in their last 20 interleague games against a team with a winning record. The Giants are 8-3 in their last 11 home games against a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 7-3 in Zito's last 10 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Giants are 2-9 in Zito's last 11 interleague starts.

Giants are 4-1 last 5 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%.
Under is 7-1 last 8 interleague games.

Key Injuries - LF Mark DeRosa (wrist) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER - Total of the Day)