Saturday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Michael Pelfrey, New York Mets
Pelfrey (9-1, 2.39) has quietly been turning in a fantastic season. He has not tasted defeat since May 1 and has won five of his last six starts.
That no-decision came on June 8 against the Padres and may have been his best of the bunch - a nine-inning gem in which he allowed only five hits, one run, struck out six and walked none but missed out on the win when the game went to extra innings.
"I didn't feel like the ball was jumping out of my hand, but I felt like I was putting it where I wanted to," Pelfrey said after the game. "That's the biggest thing."
That's been the key to his success all season. Like a young Greg Maddox, he's beating batters with his pinpoint control and brains instead of blowing them away with sheer heat.
Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs
Time to wake up Ted Lilly (2-5, 2.64) and remind him he's a 34-year-old journeyman.
Lilly had his no-hit bid broken up in the ninth inning against crosstown rival White Sox on Sunday night, harkening back to his glory days with the Yankees.
"There was so much energy," Lilly said after the near no-no. "I can't remember that much energy - I guess I'd have to go back to 2001 and the World Series and some of those big late inning game-winning homers and you get that kind of feeling. It was awesome and really special."
The one-hitter wasn't a one-hit wonder. Despite losing his previous five decisions, Lilly has been solid but has lacked support from the scuttling Cubs. He allowed only four earned runs in his previous three starts, all of which lasted longer than seven innings.
Matt Cain, Giants
Cain (6-4, 2.05) has won four consecutive starts and has allowed only two earned runs during that stretch.
Among those wins a pair of complete-game shutouts, including a one-hitter over the Diamondbacks. His recent surge corresponds with some sage advice from catcher Bengie Molina last month.
"'Your fastball needs to be located,'" Molina said he told Cain. "'If you locate your fastball, you're going to be fine.' That's the last time I remember telling him that. And his fastball location has been amazing. ... He smells a complete game or he smells a win, and it's amazing. He gets stronger and stronger."
Slumping
Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers
After a phenomenal rookie season, Porcello (4-6, 6.09) is suffering through a serious sophomore slump.
Manager Jim Leyland was so concerned after his last outing that he skipped him a turn in the rotation. Porcello tries to rebound from the thumping he took against the White Sox in which he allowed eight hits and earned runs before getting the hook after just 3 1/3 innings.
"They got those hits so quick, it was like a slap in the face," Porcello said. "I didn't even realize what happened until I was out of the game. That's a perfect example of just letting the game speed up on me, and I've done that a couple times this year and not been able to stop it."
The 21-year-old has shown he can handle success at this level. Now it's time to see how he deals with adversity.
Ben Sheets, Oakland A's
Sheets (2-6, 4.93) is mired in one of the longest droughts of his career. He hasn't won since May 8, marking a seven-game streak without a decision.
That's his longest winless stretch since 2004, when he made nine starts without earning a W. Perhaps more alarming is the fact that he's lasted seven innings only once this season.
"Six innings isn't really that great," said Sheets, who has given up a total of 10 earned runs in his past three starts - all lasting exactly six innings. "I prepare to go nine every time."
Perhaps he should instead prep for six good ones.
Kevin Millwood, Baltimore Orioles
One month ago it didn't seem like things could get worse for the winless Millwood (0-8, 5.16). Now they seem like the good old days.
Millwood has lost hi last four outings and failed to last more than six innings in those starts, giving up a total of 31 hits and 20 earned runs in his last 16.1 innings. His ERA ballooned to 10.80 over that span.
"I'm just not throwing the ball where I need to," Millwood said. "That's pretty much it. And hopefully I can figure something out between now and the next time and get back to where I was before."
Let's hope "before" refers to his glory days with the Braves, not his 0-for days with the O's.
Saturday FOX Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Saturday FOX card involves three interleague matchups, highlighted by the Red Sox/Dodgers showdown at Fenway Park. Elsewhere, the Nationals host the streaking White Sox in D.C., but we'll begin in Philadelphia with the Phillies looking to keep their bats hot against the Twins.
Twins at Phillies - 4:10 PM EST
Minnesota and Philadelphia continue a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park as Cole Hamels goes for his seventh win of the season. The Phillies' offense has picked up after their cold streak on a road trip through the NL East, scoring 21 runs the last four games (3-1).
Hamels (6-5, 3.74 ERA) is coming off a terrific start against the Red Sox his last time out, striking out eight and allowing five hits in seven innings of a 5-1 victory. The southpaw is slowly returning to the form that won him the 2008 World Series MVP, as the Phillies are 6-3 in his last nine starts. The 'under' has turned into a profitable play, hitting in seven of his previous eight outings.
The Twins counter with Kevin Slowey (7-4, 3.84 ERA), who was knocked around by the Braves in his last outing, allowing six runs and nine hits in 4.2 innings. Slowey is known as one of the better control pitchers in baseball (55 strikeouts, 16 walks), but his day numbers have been less than stellar. Eleven of his walks and eight of his home runs allowed (10 homers overall) are in matinee action, to go along with an ERA of 5.81. The 'over' is 4-2 in Slowey's last six starts, while hitting in each of his last two interleague outings against Atlanta and Milwaukee.
Minnesota is 9-3 the last 12 road interleague contests, while Philadelphia tries to improve on its 2-10 mark against American League teams since the start of last season.
Dodgers at Red Sox - 4:10 PM EST
After two rookies started on Friday night, a pair of wily veterans hit the mound at Fenway Park on Saturday afternoon. Boston has been on fire recently at home, winning nine of its previous 11, including a 9-1 mark as home 'chalk.'
The Sox send out Tim Wakefield (2-5, 5.42 ERA) to the hill, going for his first home victory of the season. The knuckleballer owns a dreadful 0-4 mark at Fenway, to go along with an ERA of 6.86 with the Sox winning one of his six home outings. Wakefield had one bad inning against the Phillies in his last start, allowing seven hits and four earned runs in 7.1 innings. Dating back to 2005, the Sox are 15-4 in Wakefield's last 19 interleague starts, including four straight home wins.
Vicente Padilla (1-1, 6.65 ERA) started on Opening Day for the Dodgers, but hasn't pitched since April 22 thanks to an inflamed nerve is his pitching arm. Los Angeles has suffered a myriad of injuries through its rotation with Padilla and Chad Billingsley, who was just placed on the disabled list with a groin strain. The Dodgers are 0-3 in Padilla's three road starts, as the righty possesses a 7.98 ERA on the highway this season. Padilla faced the Red Sox last season as a member of the Rangers and picked up a road underdog victory by tossing seven innings and allowing two earned runs in a 6-3 win.
The Red Sox are 16-6 in Game 2's this season, including a 12-2 mark off a victory in the series opener. The Dodgers own a 6-8 record as a road underdog this season.
White Sox at Nationals - 4:10 PM EST
This game was moved to the FOX slot with the thinking Stephen Strasburg was taking the hill. Only problem is that the rookie sensation started on Friday night against Chicago, trying to keep the righty on a normal four days of rest regiment. The Nats will face a former National League Cy Young Award winner with Jake Peavy taking the mound for the Sox.
Peavy (5-5, 5.62 ERA) was pushed back to Saturday after needing several days to rest his right shoulder. The ex-Padres righty is coming off a victory over the Cubs at Wrigley Field, giving up six hits and two earned runs in seven innings of a 10-5 win. That outing was his second straight quality start following four consecutive non-quality appearances (2-2). Peavy hasn't faced the Nationals since 2007, as Washington picked up two victories as substantial underdogs.
J.D. Martin (0-2, 4.19 ERA) hits the bump for the Nats, making his first home start of the season following three road outings. The right-hander hasn't had much luck through his first three turns, as Washington is 0-3, including a 7-1 loss at last-place Cleveland in his previous outing. The Nats haven't provided Martin with run support, averaging 2.3 runs/game in his three outings.
The White Sox are one of the top interleague road teams, winning 11 of their past 15 on the highway against National League foes. The Nats have compiled seven wins in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
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Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox
Dodgers: Los Angeles is tied with San Diego for the hotly contested National League West division lead. The Dodgers are 38-28 SU, the 2nd best record in the National League. Los Angeles is +3.22 and -3.09 units respectively both SU and on the RL this year. The Dodgers have lost 4 of their last 6 games as they are in the middle of a brutal stretch of games in their schedule. It's been 6 years since the Dodgers have faced off against the Red Sox. Right-hander Vicente Padilla will take the mound today, as he looks to turn around his season. Once the ace of this staff, Padilla has struggled this year going 1-1 with an ERA of 6.65 and a WHIP of 1.43. The Dodgers are 8-3 in their last 11 road games against a right-handed starter. The Dodgers are 8-23 in their last 31 interleague road games against a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 4-1 in Padilla's last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 0-4 in Padilla's last 4 road starts overall.
Dodgers are 5-1 last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Under is 7-2 last 9 road games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - SS Rafael Furcal (personal) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6
Red Sox (-145, O/U 10.5): This is an anticipated series, as it's the return of Manny Ramirez, and it's a series amongst two of the hottest teams in the game. Boston has won 5 of their past 6 games, and are 40-28 SU for the year. Boston trails the Yankees and the Rays by 2 games in the ultra competitive American League East standings. The Red Sox are +2.93 and -3.70 units both SU and on the RL this year. P Tim Wakefield will make the start for Boston tonight, as he is 2-5 with an ERA of 5.42 and a WHIP of 1.29 this year. The Red Sox are 43-11 in their last 54 interleague home games against a right-handed starter. Boston is 8-3 in their last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Red Sox are 14-3 in Wakefield's last 17 interleague starts overall. Boston is 1-5 in Wakefield's last 6 starts against a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 0-5 in Wakefield's last 5 home starts coming into tonight's contest.
Red Sox 9-2 last 11 games vs.a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - CF Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 7 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Tampa Bay Rays at Florida Marlins
Rays (-150, O/U 9): Despite losing back to back games SU, Tampa Bay still is tied with the Yankees for the best record in baseball at 41-25. Tampa Bay has arguably the best pitching staff in the game, and that's why this team is competitive more often than not. The Rays have been dominant on the road this year, going 23-10 SU thus far. This series with their state neighbor is important to them, as they lost 2 of 3 when they met up last week. Tampa is +4.04 and -1.07 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. P Jeff Niemann has been brilliant this year, going 6-1 with an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.08. The Rays are 3-7 in their last 10 interleague road games against a right-handed starter. The Rays are 6-0 in Niemann's last 6 road starts. Tampa is 5-0 in Niemann's last 5 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Tampa is 14-2 in Niemann's last 16 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rays are 19-6 in Niemann's last 25 starts against a team with a losing record.
Rays are 5-0 last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 8-3 last 11 interleague road games.
Key Injuries - RF Gabe Kapler (hip) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side of the Day)
Marlins: Florida is in a tailspin, as they've lost 7 of their last 10 to tumble down the standings. The Marlins are 31-35 SU, placing them in 4th place in the National League East division. Florida has had issues with their pitching staff this season, as they have struggled with their consistency. Florida has allowed opponents to score at least 6 runs in 4 of their past 6 games overall. Lefty Nate Robertson has had his own issues this year, going 4-5 with an ERA of 4.57 and a WHIP of 1.48. The Marlins are 17-35 in their last 52 games as a home underdog. Florida is 4-9 in their last 13 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Marlins are 4-10 in their last 14 games against a right-handed starter. Florida is 1-7 in their last 8 home games against a right-handed starter. The Marlins are 7-3 in Volstad's last 10 starts against a team with a winning record. Florida is 3-15 in Volstad's last 18 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Marlins are 8-3 last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Over is 9-2 last 11 games a home underdog.
Key Injuries - C John Baker (elbow) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Hot-Sticks!!
By SportsPic
The Phillies showing signs of life the past three plating 22 runs in defeating Yankees twice and Central-Leading Twins in the opener of this three game set have conditions on their side to extend the winning streak to four games. Phillies smacking 27 hits, 6 yard-ball during it's run expect more fireworks swinging away at Twins hurler Kevin Slowey. The righty off a rough outing giving up 6 runs over 4.2 innings of work heads to the mound with a whopping 1.58 WHIP, 10.92 Batter-Out-Rating/9 on the road. Consider Phils' knowing home favorites of -$1.40 to -$1.50 facing a starter like Slowey who can't get guys out (BOR/9 <12) have been excellent bets winning at a 83.6% rate (38-6) outscoring the visitor 7.4 to 3.6. If that were not enough, Minnesota will be facing lefty Cole Hamels a situation that has given Twinkies fits as they are 6-16 on the road vs a left-handed starter.