Saturday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Carl Pavano (8-6, 3.64), Minnesota Twins
The mustache must be working for Carl Pavano. Minnesota’s right-hander is 3-0 in his last three starts and went at least seven innings in each. Pavano threw a complete game in his most recent outing, limiting the Phillies offense to four hits in a 4-1 victory.
“Pavano was fantastic,” Ron Gardenhire said after the game. “That’s an unbelievable lineup they have over there, but he kept them off balance and got his pitches over for strikes.”
Pavano and the Twins are +115 underdogs facing the New York Mets Saturday.
Clay Buchholz (10-4, 2.47), Boston Red Sox
Boston’s current ace shutout the Dodgers in his last start, giving up three hits over 6.2 innings of work for a 2-0 victory. Buchholz has won his last two starts and is 8-2 since early May.
“Just a maturing young pitcher,” manager Terry Francona said. “His stuff is so good, now that he’s got some repetition under his belt the game doesn’t speed up for him.”
Most of the Giants lineup has never seen Buchholz and the oddsmakers are well aware, making the BoSox a -155 favorite in San Fran on Saturday.
Slumping
A.J. Burnett (6-6, 4.83), New York Yankees
The wheels are falling off for New York starter A.J. Burnett. The righty has given up 23 earned runs in 20.0 innings pitched in June with only 13 strikeouts. In his last outing, Burnett was chased out of the game after only four innings after giving up three bombs in the first inning and seven runs overall.
"I don't feel like myself," Burnett said after the game. "I'm not having fun right now. Who would in a stretch like this? When you come out and take the air out of your team right away for a handful of starts, it gets quite frustrating. I'm going to keep plugging away.”
Burnett is 0-4 in four June starts and the Yankees are a pick ‘em (-110) against the Dodgers in L.A. Saturday.
Returning
Doug Fister (3-3, 2.45), Seattle Mariners
Fister was once the AL leader in ERA but has been on the disabled list since May 31 because of shoulder fatigue. Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu said that Fister will be on an 85-pitch count in his return Saturday.
Fister is a crafty righty that isn’t going to blow hitters away. He has a high ground ball rate and great control so his effectiveness comes from keeping hitters off balance. Fister was starting to get touched up a bit before going on the DL, yielding 10 runs over his last three starts.
Saturday's FOX Tips
By Brian Edwards
**Yankees at Dodgers**
Most books are listing the side as a pick ‘em with a total of nine 'under' (minus-120). Gamblers can back the Dodgers on the run line (minus 1 1/2 runs) for a plus-165 return (risk $100 to win $165).
New York (45-27, +372) went into Friday’s play with a two-game lead over the Rays and Red Sox in the American League East.
Los Angeles (39-33, -79) went into Friday’s action trailing the NL-West-leading Padres by three games. The Dodgers are in third place in the division, also behind the Giants by one-half game.
New York RHP A.J. Burnett (6-6, 4.83) will take the ball in this spot. The hard-throwing veteran righty is mired in an awful slump, as evidenced by his 0-3 record and 10.93 ERA his last three times out. For the season, Burnett is 3-4 with a 5.85 ERA in nine road assignments. He is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA in seven career starts against the Dodgers.
Joe Torre’s club will counter with Hiroki Kuroda, who is 6-5 with a 3.06 ERA this season. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.18 ERA in seven home starts. The 35-year-old Kuroda will be facing the Yankees for the first time in his big-league career.
L.A. slugger Manny Ramirez has only faced Burnett three times, going 1-for-3 with the lone hit being a home run.
Joe Girardi’s team had a 20-17 road record going into Friday’s series opener at Chavez Ravine. Meanwhile, the Dodgers had a 23-13 home ledger.
The ‘under’ is 38-37 overall for the Yankees, 20-19 in their road assignments.
The Dodgers have watched the ‘over’ go 39-32 overall, 22-13 in their home games.
Fox will have regional television coverage of the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. Eastern.
**Cubs at White Sox**
Most spots have installed the White Sox as minus-120 favorites for the middle game of this series between the Windy City rivals. The total is nine ‘under’ (minus-115). Betors can take Ozzie Guillen’s club on the run line for a plus-165 return (risk $100 to win $165).
The White Sox have won 10 in a row and 14 of their last 15, including a three-game sweep of the Braves this week. They beat the Cubs by a 6-0 count in Friday’s series opener, shelling Carlos Zambrano for four runs in the first inning. Jake Peavy worked seven shutout innings, fanning nine batters for the winners. Carlos Quentin providing all the offense the White Sox would need, belting a three-run homer off of Zambrano in the opening frame.
-Pending Minnesota’s result Friday night, Chicago (38-34, +172) had moved to within two games of the AL-Central leaders. On the flip side, the NL’s version of Chicago (32-41, -1822) was laboring in fourth place in the NL Central, 8 ½ games behind the loop-leading St. Louis Cardinals.
Carlos Silva (8-2, 3.01) has emerged as the Cubs’ surprising ace this year. The veteran righty is no stranger to the White Sox from his days with division-rival Minnesota. Silva hasn’t fared too well against the White Sox, either, posting a 4-11 record and 5.33 lifetime ERA.
Silva is 4-0 with a 3.07 ERA in five road assignments this season.
The White Sox will give the starting nod to Freddy An. Garcia (8-3, 4.85), who is 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in five career starts against the Cubs.
The White Sox are just 20-26 in night games.
The Cubs have seen the ‘under’ go 39-27 overall, 21-11 in their road outings.
The ‘over’ is 36-32 overall for the White Sox, 17-16 in their home games. However, the ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run in their last six outings.
Fox will have the regional telecast at 7:10 p.m. Eastern.
**Red Sox at Giants**
Most books are listing Boston (44-30, +460) as a minus-150 road favorite with a total of 8 ½ flat (minus-110 either way). Gamblers can take the Red Sox on the run line for a plus-113 payout (risk $100 to win $113).
--Terry Francona’s squad is 18-15 in its road games, 38-18 in its games played at night under the lights.
San Francisco (39-32, +152) has thrived at home with a 24-12 record. The Giants have won six of their last seven at home, but they went into Friday’s series opener after back-to-back losses at Houston.
Clay Bucholz (10-4, 2.47) will toe the rubber for Boston on Saturday. The right-hander has been especially effective in six road outings, going 5-1 with a 1.74 ERA. Bucholz is facing San Francisco for the first time in his career.
Joe Martinez (0-1, 4.91) will get the ball for the Giants for his third start of the season. The right-hander is making his career debut against the Red Sox.
The ‘over’ is 37-33 overall for Boston, 15-15 in its road games.
The ‘over’ is 36-33 overall for the Giants, but the ‘under’ is 19-16 in their road games.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 6/26
By Dan Bebe
National League
Padres @ Marlins (-205) with a total of 7
Jorge Cantu is 5-for-10 off Garland with an RBI;
Mike Lamb is 3-for-8 off Garland with an RBI.
Josh Johnson, well, you guys already know the damage he's been doing to the League, though I must say, if any team can beat Johnson, it's the Padres. All they really have to do is "hang around" for a while, and when Johnson leaves the game, the bullpen is going to look even worse than usual, because they're not Johnson. But, as we're not really volume guys, this one sort of fritters off the table. Leans: None
Interleague Play
Twins @ Mets (-135) with a total of 7.5
Delmon Young is 3-for-6 off Santana.
This line is eerily low, isn't it? The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball, and the Twins haven't really been hitting that well on their current road trip. Still, Pavano has been a complete and total horse for the Twins, seemingly going 8 innings every time out (I did say "seemingly"), and over the last 3 starts, Pavano is actually putting up better numbers than Santana. I hate to say it, since I'd love to back the Mets, but due to the perception that Santana is somehow leagues ahead of Pavano, the Twins are a live dog. Leans: Twins
Cardinals @ Royals with a total of N/A
Come on Cardinals, pick a starter. It's weekend time, so I can't wait around. We'll handicap this one in the morning, but no blog entry. Sorry! Leans: N/A
Astros @ Rangers (-280) with a total of 10
Hunter Pence is 4-for-5 off C.J. Wilson before 2010.
Wilson faced the Astros just a few days ago, and gave up 4 runs (only 2 earned) in 7 innings of work in a game the Rangers won, 5-4. The Rangers, somehow, have forgotten how to lose. Obviously, we'll see how Friday's game plays out (since I do write these early), but the rather heavy amplitude on this line makes it a no-play, without question. How about that total? Well, tough to say what Banks is going to do, but Texas has been hitting the heck out of the ball. I fear, though, that if the Rangers play strong defense, Wilson could give up just 2 runs in 7 innings this time around. Leans: None
Phillies (-135) @ Blue Jays with a total of 9
Placido Polanco is 3-for-6 off Marcum;
Ryan Howard hit a 2-run jack in his only AB off Marcum;
Adam Lind is 3-for-6 with a HR off Lind.
This is about as evenly matched a pitching pair as we've seen in a while. Hamels season ERA is 3.75; Marcum's is 3.24. Hamels has 6 wins, Marcum has 6 wins. Hamels is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA against Toronto, and Marcum is 1-0 with a 5.14 ERA against the Phils. Hamels has been on a nice run of going pretty deep in games with solid strikeout numbers, though his team isn't necessarily winning those games; Marcum seems to be slipping just a tad, and I think that's the reason for this road fave. I know Toronto seems like an easy choice, but I don't think it's so simple. Leans: Phillies
D'backs @ Rays (-205) with a total of 8.5
B.J. Upton is 3-for-8 with a HR and 3 RBI off Kennedy.
Ian Kennedy is 1-2 with a 6.64 ERA against the Rays, though looking at the numbers, the current Rays don't hit him all that hard. Kennedy has been the D'backs most consistent starter (yes, better than Haren), but that bullpen behind him makes any Kennedy start a potential disaster late. Price hasn't been as unhittable lately as he was early in the season, but where the D'backs fail, the Rays excel, and that's in the pen. I'd love to say the dog is the right play, here, but considering the Rays could score 4 runs in the 7-9th innings, I wouldn't take the chance that the D'backs will be up by 5 at that point. Leans: None
Tigers @ Braves (-130) with a total of 9
Yunel Escobar is 5-for-11 off Scherzer;
Chipper Jones is 4-for-8 off Scherzer with a HR and 5 RBI.
You wouldn't think Scherzer would have 3 decisions against Atlanta in his short time in the Bigs, but he's 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA against the Braves. And while Scherzer has pitched better since coming back from the Minors, and the Tigers are 3-2 in his starts, the 3 wins all came at home, and the 2 losses came on the road. Kawakami is 0-9, but the Braves did score enough to win his last start, and are actually 4-1 in the games where Kawakami doesn't receive a decision. I happen to think the strength of this line is indeed a tipped hand. Leans: Braves
Mariners @ Brewers (-125) with a total of 8.5
Ichiro is 4-for-6 with an RBI off Wolf.
Randy Wolf is starting to heat up. I know that sounds insane, but his last 2 starts have both been extremely solid, going 14 combined innings and allowing 3 total runs. Doug Fister is making his first after missing almost 4 weeks of action. We'll do a little more digging to find out what sort of shape Fister is in, but any time a pitcher isn't quite at full strength and the adrenaline isn't going to be flowing too much more than usual, you have to look to fade that pitcher. Leans: Brewers
Nationals (-125) @ Orioles with a total of 9.5
Corey Patterson is 7-for-18 with 2 RBI off Hernandez;
Ty Wigginton is 3-for-6 off Hernandez since '05.
I think this line is actually a tad on the cheap side for the Nationals, and I just can't help but think that "home dog" money is what's keeping it so low. Those of you that have been reading this blog since the NBA season know that there are just times where it's extremely clear which side is square and which is sharp, and more than 50% of the time I lean to the sharp side, but to me, this just doesn't make sense. Bergesen had 2 good starts out of 10, and I just can't see Baltimore cracking Livan over his noggin. Leans: Nationals
Indians @ Reds (-145) with a total of 9.5
We don't have much to work with, here, as Masterson is 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA against the Reds, and remains one of the streakier pitchers in baseball. Sam LeCure hasn't been too impressive in his Big League work so far, and that's why this line is so low for the Reds, at home. I guess the issue is that the Indians have gone back to losing every night, once again. They were hitting a ton for about a week, but things have tailed off, and even if LeCure isn't that great, you have to think that the Reds lefthanded bats can do some damage off Masterson in this small ballpark. Leans: None
Red Sox (-160) @ Giants with a total of 8.5
This line is high for a reason. Joe Martinez is not that good, and the Red Sox veterans are going to eat him alive. Clay Buccholz might be among the top-10 pitchers in all of baseball, and yet his name seems to slip through the cracks when all the aces are getting discussed. I don't get that. He's 10-4 with a 2.47 ERA, is coming off a brilliant performance against a Dodgers team that hits righties pretty darn well. An interesting stat: Buccholz has received a decision in all 14 of his starts. Odd. Leans: None
Yankees @ Dodgers (-110) with a total of 9
Garrett Anderson is 5-for-14 with a HR and 3 RBI off Burnett since '05;
Rafael Furcal is 4-for-13 off Burnett.
This game has the makings of a fun one. A.J. Burnett, struggling of late, faces a team that he's somehow 3-2 against with a 2.45 ERA. A lot of that work came in strangely scheduled Interleague action a few years back, so you can see he hasn't seen much of the Dodgers young bats. Hiroki Kuroda has some absolutely filthy stuff right now, and I really think he can hold the Yanks to 2 runs in 6-7 innings.
Cubs @ White Sox (-115) with a total of 9
Aramis Ramirez is 5-for-12 with an RBI off Garcia since '05;
Paul Konerko is batting .321 with a HR and 6 RBI off Silva in 28 AB;
A.J. Pierzynski is batting .296 with 2 HR and 5 RBI in 27 AB off Silva since '05.
I honestly don't know how you back the Cubs, here. Silva continues to be decent enough, bordering on good, but his luck seems to be turning a tad, and luck plays a huge role in baseball, as we all know. He's 4-11 against the White Sox, and lost 2-1 to Mark Buerhle 2 weeks ago. I can't imagine he pitches that well again, and even if he does, Freddy Garcia is just rolling right along, consistent as ever. Leans: White Sox
Pirates @ Athletics (-200) with a total of 8.5
Not much to work with, here, but this line is awfully high, and the Pirates stink. Those are the two factors that seem relevant to me. I'm not going to advocate backing the Pirates, especially on the road, until they show some signs of waking up, and it hasn't happened yet. Probably leave this one alone. Leans: None
Rockies @ Angels (-125) with a total of 9.5
Melvin Mora is 8-for-18 with a HR and 3 RBI off Saunders;
Miguel Olivo is 3-for-6 with a HR off Saunders.
This game has some sneaky Under trends. First, Colorado is coming off some ridiculously high-scoring, zero-bullpen games at home against the Red Sox, so the line is slightly inflated. Second, Joe Saunders has been getting pummeled in his last 2 starts to raise his ERA up over 5 runs. Yet, Saunders is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA against the Rockies, and Aaron Cook, Colorado's starter today, is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA against the Angels. They put the ball in play, and with Cook's sinker, he should be able to get a few groundballs at his defense. Sure, this one could be another 16-run fireworks show, but I believe the line is higher than it should be. Leans: Angels, Under
Tips and Trends
Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves
Tigers: Detroit has won 7 of their last 10 games, as they are trying to chase down Minnesota in the American League Central. The Tigers are playing good baseball right now, and will look to keep that up on the road against one of the best home teams in the game. Detroit is 39-32 SU this year, including 14-21 SU away from home. Detroit is +5.66 and +6.21` units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. P Max Scherzer will take the mound today, as he looks to continue his recent solid form. For the season, Scherzer is 4-6 with an ERA of 5.67 and a WHIP of 1.48. The Tigers are 5-2 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter. The Tigers are 48-23 in their last 71 interleague games against a right-handed starter. Detroit is 5-11 in their last 16 road games against a right-handed starter. Detroit is 0-5 in Scherzer's last 5 road starts overall.
Tigers are 14-3 last 17 games against the National League East.
Over is 7-2 last 9 interleague games.
Key Injuries - CF Austin Jackson (back) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Braves (-130, O/U 9): It's been quite some time since Atlanta has beaten the Tigers. Atlanta has lost the past 5 games with Detroit, and haven't beaten then since June 8th, 2004. Atlanta has lost their past 3 games, all against the red hot White Sox. Despite the losing streak, the Braves stil lead the National League East with a record of 42-31 SU. Atlanta has the 2nd best record in the National League thanks to a home record of 24-7 SU. Atlanta is +8.06 and +6.24 units both SU and on the RL this year. P Kenshin Kawakami is still looking for his 1st win this year, as he is 0-9 with an ERA of 4.78 and a WHIP of 1.46. The Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague home games against a right-handed starter. The Braves are 8-1 in their last 9 interleague games against a right-handed starter. Atlanta is 22-8 in their last 30 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Atlanta is 4-1 in Kawakami's last 5 home starts. The Braves are 1-7 in Kawakami's last 8 starts against a team with a winning record.
Braves are 13-3 last 16 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Under is 5-1 last 6 interleague home games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - CF Nate McLouth (head) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side of the Day)
Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants
Red Sox (-160, O/U 8.5): Boston scored a robust 13 runs in their most recent game to salvage a win in Colorado. The Red Sox hope they keep swinging hot bats as they head to San Francisco to face their perennially tough pitching staff. Boston is right in the thick of the American League playoff race as we approach the All-Star break. Boston continues to score plenty of runs, as they've scored 6 or more runs in six of their past 10 games. Boston is 44-30 SU overall this year, including 18-15 SU on the road. Boston is +4.60 and -3.33 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. P Clay Buchholz has been dominant this year, and he will look to keep it going tonight. Buchholz is 10-4 with an ERA of 2.47 and a WHIP of 1.24 this season. The Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Boston is 61-17 in their last 78 interleague games against a right-handed starter. The Red Sox are 20-7 in their last 27 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Boston is 19-7 in their last 26 games against a right-handed starter. The Red Sox are 9-1 in Buchholz's last 10 road starts overall. The Red Sox are 14-2 in Buchholz's last 16 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Red Sox are 6-2 last 8 road games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-4 last 13 games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - RF J.D. Drew (hamstring) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Giants: San Francisco is happy to be back at home after losing their past 2 series, both on the road. Their vaunted starting pitching has let them down of late, as they've allowed 6 runs or more in 3 of their past 4 games. San Francisco is still in the hunt in the underrated National League West with a record of 39-32 SU. The Giants are +1.52 and -0.51 units both SU and on the RL this season. San Francisco is an impressive 24-12 SU at home this year. P Joe Martinez will be making only his 2nd start of the season today. Martinez is 0-1 with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.64 this year. The Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Giants are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague home games against a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 42-20 in their last 62 home games against a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 1-4 in Martinez's last 5 starts overall heading into tonight.
Giants are 4-0 last 4 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.
Under is 7-1-1 last 9 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - LF Mark DeRosa (wrist) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 1