Saturday's MLB Preview
By Josh Jacobs
As I was told some time ago, haste makes waste. In relation to betting on baseball, it will be beneficial to us if we take our time analyzing pitching matchups, offensive stats and anything else that can aid in our decision making process.
Saturday brings with it a loaded, 15-game card. But what stands out on this day is the drop in quality of pitchers expected compared to Friday’s loaded talent. Friday was headlined by C.C. Sabathia, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander or Jair Jurrjens playing catch. But the lineup we’re concerned about will be categorized by competitive prices based on the talent taking the mound.
San Francisco at Florida – 6:10 p.m. EDT
Despite the Marlins dropping -3.07 units on the money line and -4.63 units on the run line, a 7-4 mini turnaround in their last 11 came at the heals of being placed as the favorite seven times. In just the last four home games versus Milwaukee (going 3-1 in that series), Florida began the series as a $1.11 favorite while taking Game 4 as much as a $1.60 fave. On top of the recent success is the ‘Fish hitting the run line five times in the last six victories.
Florida won’t have the easiest of times at home when the Giants take the field. San Francisco has lowered its ERA down to 2.89 in the last 10 games while the offense has turned up the heat as a .298 BA is evidence of (fourth best in the Majors). Thanks to Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn, the club is 9-4 on the ‘over’ in the last 13 home stands.
Toeing the slab for the Giants will be third-year pitcher, Jonathan Sanchez (2-4, 4.75 ERA). A win against Atlanta two starts ago resulted in Sanchez’s first victory in the span of one month plus. In his last seven starts, the lefty is 1-3 but only coughing up 2.9 runs per game. It’s been the 3.1 runs of support per game and a team, .257 BA from April to May that’s been damaging to not only Sanchez but the club as a whole.
Andrew Miller, gearing up for his seventh start of the season, might be 0-1 in his last three starts after coming off the 15-day DL on May 16 but allowing 2.3 runs per game in 17.1 innings once again displays the inadequate offense showing up to the park. But with the Giants struggling to bring home the bacon against southpaw pitchers, scoring a second to worst 44 runs, it’s not hard to envision the Marlins holding this game close on the scoreboard.
Despite the pitching vitals, San Francisco is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Florida. The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings.
Arizona at San Diego – 10:05 p.m. EDT
The Padres have had a sleeper hold in this series, owning the 6-2 edge in the last eight head-to-head matchups. But 10 straight home wins may have run its course as San Diego dropped three straight to Philadelphia this week.
In-fact a 2-6 drop-off in the last eight shouldn’t be that much of a surprise. As baseball is a game of ups and downs through a long season, San Diego gave us indication that there would be more dark days then bright when it went 2-12 from Apr. 29 to May 14. Let’s be honest, when you’re a club batting .217 at home (.196 versus lefties) you’d be hard pressed to find a reason for winning.
And now with an Arizona club coming to town that’s batting .215 on the road this year, expect totals of seven or 7 ½ to become a regular occurrence. Add in the PETCO Park factor and a total no larger then eight has been set by books throughout the season. To begin the year against the Dodgers, books had gone as far as to list the total at 6 ½.
Five quality starts in his last six starts couldn’t have been predicted coming from a pitcher who went 0-3 in his first six starts. Arizona’s Max Scherzer (2-4, 4.47) is 2-1 in his last three trips to the diamond. Scherzer’s last start on May 31 ended in disaster after getting pegged for eight runs off 10 hits in 3.2 innings.
San Diego is planning to counter with second-year slinger, John Geer (1-1, 5.44). The relatively unknown Geer has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven of nine times in both starting and relief spots. Batters have struggled against Geer when he’s been pitching at home versus on the road (.253 BAA at home versus .283 BAA on the road).
The Diamondbacks are 2-7 in Scherzer’s last nine starts.
Extra Innings
Texas and Boston meet up for a scheduled nine innings of play at 7:10 p.m. EDT. With lefty Jon Lester (4-5, 5.65) on the hill, most books have already set a steep price of -180 in favor of the Red Sox.
The Rangers enter this foray harboring a disturbing 9-34 record in the last 43 meetings played in Boston. Another lefty in Derek Holland (1-2, 6.33) will have to contend against the Red Sox who have fired off .479 slugging percentage and have brought in a second best, 89 runs versus southpaw slingers. With the offensive loaded Rangers only giving Holland four runs of support per game the +172 price is warranted.
The Red Sox are coming off a four-game stretch for which the bats devasted Toronto and Detroit for 7.3 runs per game. And despite this the total went an even 2-2. In the longer run, Boston is 7-3 on the ‘under’ in its last 10 games and 16-6-1 in the last 23 games. This coming from a team who’s bullpen ERA is now ranked No. 1 in the league at 2.82.
The Sox starter Lester has been off and on, giving up no more then one run in two of four starts. However, those other two appearances witnessed Lester giving up five runs per game for a combined 10 runs.
David Ortiz is on a three-game hitting streak for Boston despite going 5-for-41 in the last 10 games (.122 BA).
Texas is also just 9-24 in its last 34 head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ is 9-3 in the Rangers last 12 road games and 17-7-1 in the last 25 overall.
vegasinsider.com
MLB weekend cheat sheet
By Marc Lawrence
The MLB Cheat Sheet, a guide designed to help you isolate a few key best bets, we focus on two key series in both the American and National League this weekend. Keep in mind that all pitcher records are team starts unless noted otherwise.
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
Most Recent Series Result: Brewers 6-3 last nine games vs. Cubs
Most Recent Series Result: at the Site: Brewers 4-2 last six games away vs. Braves
Key Day/Month Stat: Braves 1-6 Sundays in June
Best Arm in the Series: Braves’ Vazquez 5-1, 2.45 ERA last six home starts vs. Brewers
Worst Arm in the Series: Brewers’ Suppan 1-3, 6.45 ERA away starts lifetime vs. Braves
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Most Recent Series Result: Phillies 9-3 last 13 games vs. Dodgers (1-2 this year)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Dodgers 6-2 last eight home games vs. Phillies
Key Day/Month Stat: Phillies 19-4 on Sundays (10-2 away)
Best Arm in the Series: Dodgers’ Kuroda 2-0, 2.08 ERA home lifetime vs. Phillies
Worst Arm in the Series: Phillies’ Moyer 0-3, 18.82 ERA last three starts vs. Dodgers
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Most Recent Series Result: Yankees are 8-5 last thirteen games vs. Rays (2-3 this year)
Most Recent Series Result: at the Site: Yankees are 6-3 last nine home games vs. Rays (2-0 this year)
Key Day/Month Stat: Yankees are 15-3 home on Sundays; Rays are 5-14 away on Sundays
Best Arm in the Series: Rays’ Sonnanstine 3-0, 2.53 ERA away lifetime vs. Yankees
Worst Arm in the Series: Rays’ Garza 0-2, 7.50 ERA away lifetime vs. Yankees
Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
Most Recent Series Result: Angels are 11-4 last 15 games vs. Tigers (2-1 this year)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Angels are 3-1 last four away games vs. Tigers
Key Day/Month Stat: Tigers are 8-1 on Saturdays; Angels are 2-7 on Saturdays
Best Arm in the Series: Angels’ Saunders 2-0, 2.64 ERA away lifetime vs. Tigers
Worst Arm in the Series: Tigers’ Verlander 0-3, 4.34 ERA home lifetime vs. Angels
Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox, (3-5, 5.75 ERA)
After a slow start to the season, Floyd is finding his groove on the bump. The righty has tossed at least seven innings in each of his past three starts after doing so only twice in his first eight starts of the year.
White Sox bettors were rewarded with a 2-1 record during the recent uprising and under bettors cashed their tickets in all three games thanks to Floyd’s 1.96 ERA. The under might be worth a strong look against the Indians Saturday. The White Sox have the third-worst batting average in the American League (.253 BA).
Nick Blackburn, Minnesota Twins, (5-2, 3.50 ERA)
You go Nick Blackburn. The Twins hurler has won his last three starts and has pitched for a tiny 1.35 ERA during the win spurt.
Blackburn has made for a solid bet all season, going at least six innings in all but one of his 11 starts so far. He’s even better in the day time when his ERA drops to 2.41 compared to 4.54 in the evening.
Saturday’s game is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. local time in Seattle.
Slumping
Derek Holland, Texas Rangers, (1-2, 6.33 ERA)
Holland is learning the hard way what it takes to be a major league pitcher. The rookie, who worked his way through the minor leagues last year and then through the bullpen this year, has given up six home runs in 27 innings.
He has earned a respectable nine strikeouts in his only two starts so far, but he also gave up three homers and eight earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in those efforts. Texas manager Ron Washington told the Dallas Morning News that Holland won’t ever back down against a hitter but that he also has a lot to learn about location.
He might get another lesson against a Red Sox squad Saturday that’s hitting .281 BA against lefties at home this season.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (32-21) at L.A. Dodgers (38-19)
Hiroki Kuroda (1-1, 2.53 ERA) makes just this second start since Opening Day when he leads the Dodgers against the Phillies and Joe Blanton (4-3, 5.86) as this four-game series continues at Dodger Stadium.
Los Angeles earned a come-from-behind 4-3 win Friday night, scoring two in the ninth off Phillies’ closer Brad Lidge to even this four-game set at one game apiece. Andre Ethier delivered a bases-loaded hit with two outs in the ninth for the game-winner, to make the Dodgers 10-1 in one-run games at home this season.
Philadelphia had a seven-game overall and five-game road winning streak halted with Friday’s stunning loss.. The Phillies still lead the major leagues with a 20-7 road record (12-3 in the last 15), and they’re on additional upswings of 56-27 overall, 36-17 on the highway, 17-7 against the N.L. West, 4-0 against right-handed starters, 15-5 on Saturdays, 37-15 versus winning teams.
The Dodgers are still just 4-4 in their last eight games and have been held to two runs or fewer in six of their last nine contests. Despite the recent slump, Los Angeles is still on upticks of 36-17 overall, 41-15 at Dodger Stadium, 5-1 against the N.L. East and 9-4 versus winning teams. Also, the Dodgers’ 21-7 home record is the best in the majors, as is their 38-19 overall mark.
Los Angeles has a 3-2 advantage the season series with Philadelphia, but the Phillies are 10-4 in the last 14 head-to-head battles (playoffs included). However, Philadelphia is still just 3-7 in its last 10 games in Hollywood.
Blanton is 3-0 in his last three starts and 3-1 on the highway this season. Monday in San Diego he gave up three runs on six hits in seven innings of a 5-3 Philadelphia victory. He pitched in Los Angeles twice last season, including once in the postseason, and allowed a combined seven runs on 16 hits in 10 inning of work as the Phillies lost the regular-season matchup 7-6 but won the playoff game 7-5. With Blanton on the mound, the Phillies are on streaks of 19-7 overall and 4-0 on the road.
Kuroda opened the season on April 6 by holding San Diego to one run on four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 4-1 win, then went on the DL and re-emerged Monday and was sharp against the Diamondbacks, allowing two runs on three hits in five innings and striking out six in a 3-2 Dodgers’ loss. He faced the Phillies three times last season and looked good each time, allowing a combined four runs on nine hits in 19 innings of work as Los Angeles went 2-1. The Dodgers are 7-2 in Kuroda’s last nine outings dating to last season (4-1 in the last five at home).
The under for Philly is on streaks of 11-2-1 overall and 6-1-1 on the road, but the over is 10-6-2 in the Phillies’ last 18 against the N.L. West. For the Dodgers, the “under” is on runs of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on Saturday, 5-1-1 against the N.L. East and 4-1 with Kuroda on the mound. However, even though the first two games of this series have stayed low, the over is still 10-4-2 in the last 16 series meetings in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Texas (32-22) at Boston (32-23)
The Rangers continue their seven-game East Coast road trip when they send rookie Derek Holland (1-2, 6.33) to the mound for his third career big-league start against the Red Sox and Jon Lester (4-5, 5.65) in a battle of southpaws at Fenway Park.
Texas won Friday’s series-opener 5-1 behind the pitching of Kevin Millwood who allowed just one run in seven innings. The Rangers evened their record at 2-2 on the trip and snapped a four-game Red Sox winning streak.
Boston remains on runs of 81-36 at home, 27-12 when playing on grass, 19-8 against teams with a winning record and 12-4 versus left-handed starters. Meanwhile, Texas is on impressive runs of 22-11 overall, 5-1 on Saturday and 4-1 against southpaw starters, but they’re 19-39 in their last 58 contests on the highway versus lefties.
The Red Sox dominated Texas last year, winning nine of 10 head-to-head meetings, and they’ve won eight of the last nine meetings inside Fenway Park. Going back further, Boston is still 25-10 in the last 35 overall against Texas and 34-10 in the last 44 clashes at Fenway.
Holland was roughed up in his last start, giving up six runs (five earned) in five innings of a 9-2 loss to the Yankees back on May 27. In his only road outing, Holland held the Astros to three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 victory two weeks ago.
Lester was dominant in his start on Sunday in Toronto, allowing one run and three hits while striking out 12 in six innings of an 8-2 win. He faced the Rangers twice last season with Boston coming out on top both times as he allowed three runs in each outing. Boston is 41-20 in Lester’s last 61 starts overall and 23-5 in his last 28 home efforts, but the Sox have lost four of Lester’s last five Saturday outings.
Texas carries “under” trends of 18-7-1 overall, 10-3 on the road, 5-1 against lefty starters and 6-2 on Saturday. Similarly, the Red Sox have stayed low in eight their last 10 overall and six of eight at home, but the over is 11-4-1 in their last 16 Saturday contests and 5-0 in Lester’s last five on Saturday. On the flip side, four of the last six Rangers-Red Sox clashes at Fenway have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Saturday, June 6
L.A. Angels at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EDT). The Angels' Kelvim Escobar returns from a shoulder injury to make his first start since the 2007 season against the Tigers, who are in first place in the AL Central.
STARS
Friday
- Carlos Zambrano, homered and allowed two hits and five walks in 6 2-3 innings, striking out seven in a 2-1 win over the Reds. It was Zambrano's 100th career win.
- David Wright, Mets, went 4 for 5 and doubled in the winning runs in the 10th inning of a 3-1 win at Washington.
- Carl Pavano, Indians, pitched a three-hitter and struck out six in a 6-0 win over the White Sox.
- Carlos Lee, Astros, hit a grand slam to help Houston to a 9-1 rout of the Pirates.
- Yovani Gallardo, Brewers, allowed two hits and four walks over eight innings, striking out six in a 4-0 win over the Braves.
- Pablo Sandoval, Giants, homered and drove in both runs in a 2-1 win over the Marlins.
- Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays, doubled, homered and drove in three runs off Zack Greinke in a 9-3 rout of the slumping Royals.
- Andre Ethier, Dodgers, hit a two-run double with the bases loaded in the ninth inning, giving Los Angeles a 4-3 victory and snapping the Phillies' seven-game winning streak.
- Doug Davis, Diamondbacks, pitched three-hit ball over six innings to win for the first time in more than five weeks, and Arizona beat the Padres 8-0.
- Jack Cust and Matt Holiday, Athletics, each hit three-run homers as Oakland beat Baltimore 9-1.
TONY LA TWITTER
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa and Twitter have reached a settlement in his lawsuit against the social networking site. La Russa said Friday that Twitter has agreed to pay legal fees and make a donation to his Animal Rescue Foundation. La Russa filed suit last month in the Superior Court of California, claiming an unauthorized page that used his name caused emotional distress by making light of the manager's DUI charge and two Cardinals pitchers who died in recent seasons. The organization is likely to take control of the name www.twitter.com/TonyLaRussa. La Russa is founder and chairman of ARF, an organization in northern California that finds homes for pets.
THE WRIGHT STUFF
David Wright went 4 for 5 with a two-run double in the 10th inning for a 3-1 win over the Nationals on Friday night. Wright leads the Mets with 20 multihit games and has 27 RBIs in 34 games, and his key hit helped the Mets snap a three-game losing streak.
ATLANTA APOLOGY
Braves president John Schuerholz apologized Friday for the club's approach to releasing Tom Glavine, who was still seething when he said the Braves knew they were going to release him on Tuesday afternoon but "still paraded me out in Rome to a sold-out crowd'' for his minor league start that night. Glavine was due a $1 million bonus by being added to the 25-man roster.
TIGER STADIUM SURVIVES
The demolition of Tiger Stadium was halted by a judge Friday, just hours after crews began tearing down what's left of the historic ballpark. Wayne County Circuit Judge Isidore Torres issued a temporary restraining order that was requested by the Old Tiger Stadium Conservancy, a nonprofit group that had tried to raise money to preserve and redevelop the ballpark.
STREAK SNAPPED
Ichiro Suzuki's hitting streak ended at 27 games after he went hitless in four at-bats in Seattle's 2-1 loss to the Mariners. ... The Dodgers ended the Phillies seven-game winning streak with a 4-3 victory.
SO LONG
Richard E. Jacobs, who stepped up along with his brother in the 1980s to rescue Cleveland's baseball franchise, died peacefully at the age of 83 on Friday. The team's new ballpark in downtown Cleveland became Jacobs Field when it opened in 1994, and the Indians made it to the World Series in 1995 and 1997. Jacobs owned the club until 2001.
SAY YOU'RE SORRY
Blue Jays outfielder Alex Rios apologized after he was caught on video yelling profanities at a fan. The incident happened Thursday night as Rios was leaving a gala dinner for the Blue Jays' charity. He is seen walking to his car when he appears to ignore an autograph request from a young fan. An older man yells, "The way you played today Alex, you should be lucky somebody wants your autograph.'' Rios responded with a profanity.
SPEAKING
"That was vintage Zambrano right there: high velocity, a lot of movement, good sinker. He's a great athlete and a good hitter. I don't think I've ever seen a guy cross over like that and hit a home run, and that ended up being the game-winner.'' - Reds manager Dusty Baker, after Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano homered while winning his 100th career game, 2-1 over Cincinnati.