Saturday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Mark Buehrle (8-7, 4.24 ERA), Chicago White Sox
The long-time White Sox ace is rounding into form. The southpaw hurler has guided the Chi-Sox to a 6-1 record in his last seven trips to the bump. Buehrle’s delivered quality starts in each of his last six outings and the under is 4-2 over the same stretch.
Better yet, he hasn’t been priced higher than -156 in any of his last 10 starts even though the Sox are 8-2 in those games.
Trevor Cahill (9-3, 2.94 ERA), Oakland Athletics
This young righty has been money in the bank for A’s backers all season. Oakland is 9-2 in Cahill’s last 11 starts while the under is 10-3-2 in his 15 starts this season. One more mouthwatering note: The A’s are 5-0 in his last five road outings.
Slumping
Matt Cain (6-8, 3.34 ERA), San Francisco Giants
This hard-throwing righty’s stock is dropping. Sure, he can bring the heat, but San Fran never gives him any run support. The Giants are 0-5 in his last five trips to the mound and he carries a hefty 8.73 ERA over the five-game stretch.
Returning/slumping
Rick Porcello (4-7, 6.14 ERA), Detroit Tigers
Porcello ran into a major sophomore slump following his memorable 2009 campaign. His performance was so dreadful that the Tigers sent him down to the minors in June. He’s scheduled to pitch on Saturday because the team’s in a tough spot with the doubleheader.
"It's one start," manager Jim Leyland told the Detroit Free Press. "It doesn't mean he's back in the rotation. It's just one start. We'll play it by ear from that point on. As it stands right now, he's coming up to pitch a game against the Indians, and that's all it means.”
Porcello has made four starts in the minors, with two gems and two duds.
Saturday FOX Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Saturday FOX baseball card employs only two games, but each matchup looms large in the playoff race. The Cardinals grabbed the series opener from the Dodgers in convincing fashion to cut into the Reds' lead atop the NL Central. We'll look at the rematch of last season's NLDS between St. Louis and Los Angeles, but start in the Big Apple with the top two dogs in the American League.
Rays at Yankees - 4:10 PM EST
These two clubs are separated by just two games inside the AL East as they continue a three-game weekend set in the Bronx. A.J. Burnett put a halt to a six-start winless streak by beating the A's his last time out, while Jeff Niemann looks to keep his winning ways going for the Rays.
Burnett (7-7, 4.75 ERA) rebounded from a rash of subpar outings to silence the Oakland bats in a 6-2 victory last Wednesday. The Yankees' right-hander scattered five hits and two earned runs in seven innings, his second straight quality start following five consecutive non-quality outings. Many of Burnett's horrible starts came on the highway, as the Little Rock native owns a 2.96 ERA at Yankee Stadium. Unfortunately, his worst home outing came against these Rays on May 19 as Burnett allowed nine hits and six earned runs in 6.2 innings of a 10-6 setback.
Niemann (7-2, 2.77 ERA) continues to be nearly an automatic win every time he toes the rubber for Tampa Bay. The Rays are 14-4 in his 18 starts, including a perfect 8-0 mark on the road. Niemann has been involved in five straight outings decided by one run, as the Rays are 4-1 in this stretch (the lone loss came on the Edwin Jackson no-hitter against Arizona). The ex-Rice Owl has faced the Yankees three times in his career, all in 2009. The Rays went 2-1 in those three starts, including a road victory last May as a $1.55 underdog, despite tossing just 3.1 innings in an 8-6 win.
The Yankees are 6-2 the last eight meetings in the Bronx, despite the Rays pulling off a two-game sweep back in May. All five matchups have finished 'over' the total this season, while five of Niemann's seven road starts have sailed 'over' the total.
Dodgers at Cardinals - 4:10 PM EST
St. Louis avenged a June three-game sweep by Los Angeles at Chavez Ravine with a 7-1 thrashing of the Dodgers on Thursday. The logjam in the NL West continues to get tighter with the first-place Padres leading the fourth-place Giants by 3 ½ games. The Dodgers sit one game ahead of San Francisco and 2 ½ behind San Diego, but Colorado is still lurking two games off the pace.
The Cardinals are hanging tough in the NL Central behind the Reds, only a ½ game behind entering Friday's action. Adam Wainwright (13-5, 2.11 ERA) looks for his 10th home win of the season, owning a ridiculous 9-0 mark at Busch Stadium, as the Cards are outscoring opponents by nearly five runs a game. The former closer has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts, all victories. Wainwright was on the losing end of a 4-3 decision at Dodger Stadium on June 9, giving up eight hits and four earned runs in six innings of work. The Cardinals' righty dominated the Dodgers at home last July by tossing eight scoreless innings in a 10-0 drubbing of Los Angeles.
Hiroki Kuroda (7-7, 3.87 ERA) has hit the skids following a strong start to the season, going 2-6 after a 5-1 run out of the gate. Kuroda is not getting squeezed either, allowing 14 earned runs his previous three outings, including losses to the Marlins and Diamondbacks. The Dodgers own a 4-1 mark when Kuroda pitches as a road favorite, but an 0-3 ledger when he is listed as a road underdog. Unfortunately for the righty, Kuroda opened as a $1.50 'dog. Fortunately, Kuroda held the Cardinals' bats in check by scattering four hits in seven scoreless innings of a 1-0 shutout of St. Louis on June 8.
Since the start of last season, the home team is 10-4 in this series, including a 4-0 mark in 2010. St. Louis has taken four of the last six meetings at Busch Stadium with the teams combining for eight runs or less five times in this span.
What else to watch for:
The NL Central-leading Reds will get a boost for their rotation as Edinson Volquez makes his first start of the season against the Rockies. Volquez, who finished 17-6 in his All-Star season of 2008, is recovering from Tommy John surgery last summer. Another fireballer takes the ball for Colorado, as Jorge De La Rosa gets the ball for only his second start since late April. The southpaw missed nearly two months with a left middle finger injury.
The Rangers and Red Sox continue their four-game set at Fenway Park with a pair of aces taking the mound. Cliff Lee makes his second start in a Texas uniform, trying to rebound from a loss in his Rangers' debut to the Orioles as a $3.80 favorite. John Lackey goes for the Sox, looking for his first win in three starts after losing to Toronto and Baltimore. Last season, the Angels went 1-4 in Lackey's five starts against Texas, which included the famous two-pitch outing in Arlington in which the righty was ejected for beaning Rangers' second baseman Ian Kinsler.
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Tips and Trends
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
Rockies: Colorado has been brilliant of late, as they attempt to catch the San Diego Padres in the National League West division. The Rockies have gone 8-2 SU in their past 10 games to stand 49-39 SU on the year. Colorado still needs to play better on the road if they are to play in the postseason this year. The Rockies are only 18-23 SU this season away from home. Colorado is +3.47 and +5.73 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Lefty Jorge De La Rosa will make the road start tonight, and he's 3-1 with an ERA of 4.94 and a WHIP of 1.46 this season. The Rockies are 6-0 in their last 6 games against a right-handed starter. Colorado is 9-3 in their last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Rockies are 20-7 in their last 27 games during game 2 of a series. The Rockies are 6-0 in De La Rosa's last 6 starts against the National League Central. Colorado is 5-1 in De La Rosa's last 6 starts against a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 22-5 in De La Rosa's last 27 starts overall. The Rockies are 8-2 in De La Rosa's last 10 road starts.
Rockies are 6-1 last 7 games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 11-3 last 14 games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - SS Troy Tulowitzki (wrist) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5
Reds (-125, O/U 9): Cincinnati is leading the National League Central with a record of 49-41 SU. The Reds have lost their last 4 games however, and they have the worst record of any current division leader. Cincinnati has been held to 3 runs or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games overall. Perhaps the young inexperienced team is trying a bit too hard. The Reds are +7.67 and +9.09 units both SU and on the RL this year. P Edinson Volquez will make his season debut tonight, as he appears to be a vital part of this pitching staff down the stretch of this season. The Reds are 15-5 in their last 20 home games against a left-handed starter. Cincinnati is 7-3 in their last 10 Saturday games. The Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Reds are 14-6 in Volquez's last 20 starts against a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 1-6 in Volquez's last 7 home starts against a team with a winning record.
Reds are 11-25 last 36 games against the National League West.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - C Ramon Hernandez (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total of the Day)
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Mets: New York is trying to keep pace with the Atlanta Braves in the National League East division, where they are currently 5 games behind. New York is struggling offensively again, as they've been held to 3 runs or fewer in each of their last 6 games. The Mets are +6.56 and +21.76 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. The Mets have easily been one of the most profitable teams to back from a betting standpoint this season. P Michael Pelfrey will take the mound today, looking to keep up his outstanding season. Pelfrey is 10-4 with an ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.44 this season. The Mets are 5-12 in their last 17 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. New York is 1-4 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter. The Mets are 4-0 in Pelfrey's last 4 starts against the National League West. New York is 6-1 in Pelfrey's last 7 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Mets are 5-1 in Pelfrey's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. New York is 12-5 in Pelfrey's last 17 starts on grass.
Mets are 7-2 last 9 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Under is 9-0 last 9 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Key Injuries - SS Jose Reyes (oblique) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)
Giants (-145, O/U 7): San Francisco is 7 games over .500 at 48-41 SU, yet are in 4th place within their own division. Despite being in 4th place in the National League West, the Giants are only 3.5 games back thanks to 8 wins in their past 10 games overall. San Francisco is +2.18 and -0.82 units both SU and on the RL this year. P Matt Cain has been really streaky this season, and he's currently struggling a bit. Cain is 6-8 this season, with an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.21. The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. San Francisco is 4-1 in their last 5 games against the National League East. The Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 10-4 in their last 14 during game 3 of a series. The Giants are 10-2 in Cain's last 12 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 15-6 in Cain's last 21 starts as a home favorite. San Francisco is 2-5 in Cain's last 7 home starts against a team with a winning record.
Giants are 2-8 last 10 against a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3 last 11 against the National League East.
Key Injuries - LF Mark DeRosa (wrist) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3