NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (50-38) at Florida (46-46)
The red-hot Phillies will try to make it three in a row over the Marlins and eight in a row overall when they send Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.44 ERA) to the mound at Land Shark Stadium to face the Marlins and their ace, Josh Johnson (8-2, 2.74).
Philadelphia scored a 6-5 win in 12 innings on Friday, plating two runs in the 12th and surviving a shaky bottom of the inning from closer Brad Lidge for the win. The Phils have now won eight of their last 10 against the Marlins, including seven straight in Florida, plus 11 of their last 12 overall and 15 of their last 21 divisional games. They also continue to have baseball’s best road mark at 28-15.
Even with back-to-back losses Thursday and Friday, Florida has won 10 of its last 13 at home and is 16-5 in its last 21 as a favorite.
Blanton finished the first half in style, going 2-0 in his final three starts with a 1.83 ERA. He blanked the Mets at home on four hits over 7 1/3 innings of a 2-0 win on July 5 and then allowed one run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings of a 3-2 home win over the Pirates on July 10. He dominated the Marlins back on May 26, blanking them on five hits over seven innings of a 5-3 win, striking out 11 and walking two.
The Phillies are a perfect 3-0 in games Blanton has started against Florida over the last two seasons. Philadelphia is also 11-4 in his last 15 outings against the N.L. East, but 0-4 in his last four as a ‘dog and 0-4 in his last four against teams with winning records.
Johnson has been a beast in South Beach this season, going 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 68 1/3 innings. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last 10 outings overall, and on Sunday he held the Diamondbacks to one run on seven hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-1 victory.
Johnson faced the Phillies on April 24 and shut them down on three hits for seven innings, but got a no-decision in his team’s 7-3 loss. Florida is 4-2 in his six starts against Philadelphia since 2006, and with Johnson pitching, the Fish are on additional runs of 25-8 overall, 13-3 at home, 23-6 against N.L. East foes, 5-0 on Saturdays and 13-3 as a favorite.
With Blanton on the mound, the Phillies are on “under” runs of 6-1-2 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 4-1-1 as a road ‘dog and 6-2 on the road against teams with a winning record. As a team, Philadelphia is on “under” streaks of 9-4 overall, 4-1-1 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 against the N.L. East and 5-0 in the third game of a series.
With Johnson pitching, Florida is on “under” runs of 5-2-2 as a home favorite, 5-1-3 as a favorite and 4-1-1 at home against winning teams. As a team, the Marlins carry “under” trends of 8-3-1 against the N.L. East, 4-0-1 as a favorite, 4-0 on Saturdays and 5-2 against teams with winning records.
Finally, in this series, the over is 54-24-3 in the last 81 meetings in Florida and 5-1 in Johnson’s last six starts against the Phillies, but the “under” is 4-1 in the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (48-40) at N.Y. Yankees (52-37)
The Tigers are slated to send All-Star Justin Verlander (10-4, 3.38 ERA) to the mound opposite lefty CC Sabathia (8-6, 3.86) at Yankee Stadium as Detroit tries to stop a three-game losing streak to the Bronx Bombers.
New York used a three-run seventh inning to score a 5-3 win over the Tigers on Friday, snapping a three-game team losing skid that stretched to last weekend’s series at the Angels. New York is 22-9 in the last 31 meetings with the Tigers in the Big Apple and 5-1 in the last six clashes overall.
The Yankees are on further streaks of 14-5 overall, 23-6 against the A.L. Central, 10-2 against right-handed starters and 13-5 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Detroit is just 4-11 in its last 15 roadies and 2-8 in its last 10 against the A.L. East, but the Tigers are on runs of 7-3 against winning teams and 18-8 against southpaws.
Verlander entered the All-Star break with a gem, blanking the Indians on five hits over six innings en route to Sunday’s 10-1 home victory. The veteran right-hander has won consecutive starts – notching 19 strikeouts in the process – and he’s given up three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his last 15 outings. However, he’s just 4-4 with a 4.98 ERA in 11 road starts, including 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA in his last three as a visitor (all Detroit losses).
Verlander is 3-1 with a 4.85 ERA in five career regular-season starts against New York, including a dominating 4-2 home win on April 27 when he scattered seven hits and struck out nine over seven scoreless innings, beating Sabathia. In fact, these two hurlers have faced off five times over the years, with Verlander going 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA, compared with Sabathia’s 2-3 mark with a 6.21 ERA.
Sabathia has been hit hard lately, giving up 12 runs in his last 19 1/3 innings, losing two of the three starts. Last time he pitched in front of the home fans, he allowed six runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings of an 8-4 loss to the Mariners. In the April 27 start against Detroit, the hefty lefty allowed four runs on six hits in eight innings. Going back to his days with the Indians, Sabathia is 3-6 with a 5.16 ERA in his last 10 starts against Detroit, yielding four runs or more in half of those 10 outings.
Detroit is on “under” runs of 12-3 overall, 8-1 on the road, 6-2 against the A.L. East and 4-0 on the road against left-handed starters, but the “over” is 8-3 in Verlander’s 11 road starts. For the Yankees, with Sabathia on the hill, the “over” is on runs of 5-0 overall, 6-2 at home and 4-0 against teams with winning records. As a team, the Yankees have topped the total in four of five overall, four of six at home and five of seven against right-handers. Finally, in this series, the over is 5-3 in the last eight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Gametimepicks.com
Saturday at the Park
By Kevin Rogers
The plot continues to thicken around baseball as July winds down with the division and playoff races tightening up. Two key AL matchups take place early in the day, as the Tigers visit the Yankees, while the Blue Jays host the Red Sox. Later in the afternoon, the three nationally televised FOX games all own a sub-plot inside the races. The highlighted matchup involves a former Cy Young Award looking to get back on track in Atlanta.
Mets at Braves (4:10 PM EST)
Two NL East rivals that are scratching and clawing their way toward the top of the Wild Card race meet up at Turner Field. Johan Santana has struggled since the start of June, with the Mets winning just three of his last eight starts. Santana has allowed 27 earned runs in that span, including losses in all four road outings.
The Mets ace has also had problems with the Braves since signing with New York in 2008. The Mets are 0-4 in Santana's starts against Atlanta, despite all four outings being quality ones. If you have followed Santana closely since his time in the Big Apple, two things have held him back - lack of run support and bullpen. The 'pen has improved this season with the acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez, but Santana has received just a measly three runs/start in 18 trips to the mound.
Thanks to the lack of run support and Santana's potential to dominate in any given trip to the mound, the Mets have hit the 'under' in 12 of his 18 starts, including seven of nine during the day.
Kenshin Kawakami has showed flashes of brilliance this season, but also has some questionable losses on his ledger. The Braves righty has road wins against the Red Sox, Phillies, and Cubs, but has lost to the Nationals, Reds, and Diamondbacks.
Kawakami had problems with run support from his lineup until recently, as the Braves are averaging 6 runs/game his last seven starts. Three of Kawakami's last four home starts have been quality outings, with the lone non-quality start coming against the Yankees (Kawakami left the game after getting hit by a line-drive in the fourth inning).
LVSC has opened up the Mets as a $1.20 road favorite, with the total set at 8.
Angels at A's (4:10 PM EST)
This series has been dominated by the road team this season (5-1 mark), while the Angels continue to score runs in bunches. Los Angeles has scored five runs or more in eight of its last nine games, while tallying at least nine runs on five occasions in this stretch.
Jered Weaver began the season as an 'under' machine, nailing nine of his first 11 starts. Lately, thanks to the Angels busting out at the plate, Weaver has drilled five straight 'overs.' The former Long Beach State star hasn't been as sharp recently, allowing 21 earned runs his last five starts, but he has struck out 104 batters while walking only 36 this season. Weaver has had some tough luck with the A's over the years, with the Angels winning two of his seven career starts. In that stretch, the Halos lost four times by one run, while Weaver delivered a quality start six times.
Vin Mazzaro had a promising start to his career by not allowing a run in his first two starts, wins over the White Sox and Orioles. Since then, the A's have lost Mazzaro's last six outings, while scoring just six runs in the process. That has translated into 'unders' in each of the right-hander's eight starts this season.
The Angels are a $1.30 road 'chalk', with the total listed at 8 ½ according to LVSC.
Orioles at White Sox (4:10 PM EST)
The Pale Hose went on a nice hot streak before getting tripped up at Minnesota the final series of the first half. Chicago wrapped up a 13-game stretch against AL Central opponents with an 8-5 mark, but the Sox are just 3-5 the last eight games. The Orioles, meanwhile, continue to languish in the AL East cellar despite a 40-48 record. Baltimore owns the third-worst road record in baseball at 14-27.
Mark Buehrle looks for a bounce-back effort after getting shelled by the Twins his last time out. The White Sox lefty has been successful against the Orioles in his career, with Chicago winning six of his last eight starts. Buehrle has still been one of the top pitchers in the American League this season at 9-3, with an ERA of 3.66. However, Buehrle's day numbers compared to the night are contrasting. At night, the Sox lefty has been dominant, going 7-0, with an ERA of 3.02. Under the sun, Buehrle is just 2-3, as his ERA dips to 4.39. The 'under' has been a solid play in Buehrle's day starts, hitting six of nine times.
Jeremy Guthrie was expected to anchor this Baltimore staff, but injuries and ineffectiveness have slowed down that process. The Orioles right-hander has lasted only 14.1 innings his last three starts, while allowing 11 earned runs. Guthrie left his last start against the Mariners with a viral infection after only two innings, then missed his final scheduled outing before the All-Star Break with the same ailment.
Guthrie has terrible career numbers against the Sox, allowing 16 earned runs in four starts, with the O's winning just one of those games. Unlike Buehrle, Guthrie's better numbers are during the day, compiling a 3-1 record and ERA of 2.89 under the sun.
The White Sox have nailed plenty of 'unders' at home when facing a right-handed pitcher, doing so in 22 of 28 games at U.S. Cellular Field, including 10 of 13 during the day.
LVSC has installed the White Sox as a $1.50 home favorite, while the total is set at 9.
vegasinsider.com
Late Night for the NL
By Judd Hall
Saturday has been loaded with baseball action from the early afternoon. Now the betting day concludes with a pair of games out in California. The Dodgers hope to take down Houston, while the Padres will try to drop the juggernaut known as Colorado.
Rockies at Padres – 10:05 p.m. EDT
The Dodgers are in control of the National League West and the Giants are holding onto the Wild Card. But you just can’t forget about the Rockies. Colorado has won seven of its last nine games…that shouldn’t be surprising since they’re 30-9 since June 4.
The Rockies don’t look like they’ll be slowing down with Jason Hammel (5-4, 4.43 ERA) taking the mound on Saturday night. Hammel started the year with losses in seven of his first eight games in 2009. Then it all turned around after May 24. Since then Rox have gone 9-1 in his last 10 starts, with Hammel posting a 5-1 record and an earned run average of 4.34.
San Diego is just hoping to get through a game without someone getting carted off the field. That might be a little strong, but the Padres haven’t had hurlers like Jake Peavy for the entire season. And they lost Chris Young for their rotation midway through June.
The Pads will take their chances with Kevin Correia (6-7, 4.50 ERA) toeing the slab. Correia isn’t a bad option for Bud Black’s club here as he’s won three of his last five starts. His most recent outing was a 5.2 inning effort where he allowed three earned runs on eight hits at San Francisco on July 12. Not a long start, but good enough for Correia to claim a win in the Padres’ 10-4 road triumph.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has made this game too close to call right now with both teams at minus-105 (risk $105 to win $100). The total is coming in at eight.
It’s a little surprising that the oddsmakers have this tilt as close as they do. Everything in my mind points to the Rockies coming out on top. Colorado is 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings. The Padres are 1-9 in their past nine tests against National League West opponents. And San Diego has lost five of its previous five matches in Petco Park.
Astros at Dodgers – 10:10 p.m. EDT
The Dodgers were hoping that Clayton Kershaw (7-5, 3.16 ERA) would have a breakout season in 2009. And while his personal record doesn’t show it, Los Angeles has played well with Kershaw on the mound. A 10-4 record for Dem Bums in his last 14 starts this year.
Los Angeles is also happy to get Manny Ramirez’s services back this month. He’s not fairing too bad since getting back from his suspension, hitting .364 with nine runs batted in. However, Ramirez has failed to push through a run in his last four games. That’s kind of surprising when you realize that ManRam four hits over that time frame, two of which were doubles.
I’m guessing not too many people realize it, but the Astros are playing some winning ball right now. Houston has posted a proper 8-2 record in its last 10 games this season. Unfortunately for the ‘Stros, they’re sending out a natural “cooler” for Game 3 of this series by the name of Mike Hampton (5-6, 4.52 ERA). I remember a time when Hampton was a great hurler for Houston...just not in this millennium.
Houston hasn’t fared that great when Hampton starts for them, as evidenced by a 3-5 mark in his last eight starts. Plus, he lasted just 3.2 innings and allowed five runs on nine hits to the Nationals on July 11. I know the Nats have some decent bats in their lineup, but they’re still the worst team in baseball.
LVSC understands this and has installed the Dodgers as heavy $1.75 home favorites with a total of eight.
One thing that the Dodgers love is playing on Saturday…they’re 15-5 over their last 20 games on the final day of the week. However, it is awful tough to ignore that the Astros are 5-0 at Chavez Ravine over the last two seasons.
vegasinsider.com
Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Dan Haren (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Haren was even more dominant in his most recent start. If that’s possible.
The 28-year-old right-hander was nearly unhittable in his most recent outing, an 8-0 win against the Marlins in which he yielded just four hits, struck out 10 batters, walked one in the complete-game shutout. This season, Haren ranks in the Top 10 in the National League in wins, strikeouts, innings pitched, ERA, complete games and WHIP (walks + hits over innings pitched).
In nine starts since May 23, Haren (9-5, 2.01 ERA) has yielded no more than two earned runs in any outing and has lasted at least seven innings in all but one appearance.
"That sets off the fire alarms around here when he walks a guy," Arizona manager A.J. Hinch told the Associated Press.
Josh Johnson (Florida Marlins)
The 25-year-old right-hander has emerged as a legitimate Cy Young contender. Johnson (8-2, 2.74 ERA) also ranks in the Top 10 in the NL in virtually every statistical category as he has been the most consistent pitcher on the Senior Circuit this year.
Johnson has allowed more than three earned runs only once in 19 starts this year and has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 12 outings.
In his most recent start, Johnson allowed only one earned run on seven hits in 6 2-3 innings as he struck out seven in an 8-1 win over the Diamondbacks.
Slumping
Scott Kazmir (Tampa Bay Rays)
It’s been the unlucky sevens that Kazmir has had to worry about. After allowing seven runs in consecutive starts in May before a stint on the DL sidelined him for June, Kazmir appeared to slowly be regaining his form. He allowed just three earned runs in 10 innings in consecutive starts.
But then came the debacle on July 8 against Toronto. Kazmir was slammed for seven runs on nine hits in 6 1-3 innings as he gave up a pair of long balls.
If Kazmir can’t regain his form, the Rays have a huge hole in their rotation.
"It felt like I pitched way better than that," Kazmir, who hasn’t won since May 9, told the Associated Press. "It seems like I haven't gotten one break the whole year. I'm due."
Jason Hammel (Colorado Rockies)
Hammel’s 5-4 record and 4.43 ERA seem harmless enough. But he has been playing with fire and putting runners on base at an alarming rate.
In his past two starts, he’s allowed nine earned runs on 19 hits in just 8 2-3 innings. In his most recent outing against Atlanta, he last just three innings as he gave up five runs on nine hits.
Hammel’s 1.46 WHIP is the stat people should be looking at. The Rockies offense won’t be able to bail him out all season.
Royal Pain!!
By SportsPic
The defending American League-champion Rays visit the Kansas City Royals for the second of three games at Kauffman Stadium. Rays taking Friday contest 8-7 have now won four straight this season vs Royals and nine of the past twelve meetings. Toeing the rubber for Rays will be Scott Kazmir (4-5 7.11) who enters with one victory the past eight trips to the mound (4-4 TSR). Getting smacked for 60 hits, 43 runs while compiling 21 walks, 33 K's over the 38.4 innings of work the southpaw brings to the contest a horrible 8.40 Batter Out Rating, 18.98 Avg-Base-Runners-Allowed ratio over the span. Not good news for Rays, knowing road underdogs of +$1.10 to +$1.20 with a starters who can't get guys out (BOR 15) are 62-24.
Mets lean on Santana
By SBGGlobal.com
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
The New York Mets send their ace, Johan Santana to the mound on Saturday against the Atlanta Braves and Kenshin Kawakami. Santana is 10-7 on the season with a 3.09 ERA while Kawakami is 5-6 with a 4.26 ERA.
In his last start, Santana threw seven scoreless innings, allowing only five hits and one walk while striking out five. The last time he faced the Braves he threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings. Last year he lost two games against Atlanta even though he had a 2.57 ERA.
Kawakami is coming off a nice outing against the Cubs on July 8th. He did lose to the Mets back in early May. Kawakami won’t have to face Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran or Carlos Delgado on Saturday. None of the three look like they will be in the lineup anytime soon. Delgado might not come back until mid-August. Reyes might be back last this month or early next month while Beltran’s return is unknown.
The Mets would like to get some production out of Jeff Francoeur who is returning to Turner Field in this series as a member of the Mets. Francoeur was traded last week for Ryan Church. Francoeur went hitless on Thursday against the Braves. "I think I tried a little too hard tonight (Thursday)," Francoeur said. "Tomorrow will be fun to come back here and just play. ... I knew this was going to be a different sort of game. That's why I'm sort of glad to get it done with." Francoeur was a Braves fan his whole life and now has to play for a team he really didn’t like. "I grew up a Braves fan my whole life, and now I'm playing for the one team you're never supposed to like at all," Francoeur said.
Here are the MLB Betting stats for Saturday’s game. The Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 Saturday games. The Mets are 20-9 in Santana’s last 29 starts.
The Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Braves are 1-6 in their last 7 Saturday games. The Braves are 5-2 in Kawakami’s last 7 starts.
The Under is 6-2 in the Mets last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Under is 4-1 in Santana’s last 5 starts overall. The Under is 4-1 in the Braves last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Over is 6-1-1 in Kawakami’s last 8 starts overall.