Saturday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Jon Lester (9-3, 2.86 ERA), Boston Red Sox
Lester is the unquestioned ace on Boston’s deep pitching staff and that comes with a price. The southpaw is usually a heavy favorite but the Sox have won six of his last eight starts.
He owns a 2-1 record with a 1.64 ERA in his last three appearances and has walked just five batters compared to 22 strikeouts during that span.
Johnny Cueto (8-2, 3.74 ERA)
Cueto and the Reds continue to roll to the surprise of most baseball pundits. Cincinnati is 8-2 in the righty's last 10 trips to the bump thanks largely great run support.
The Reds scored 6.4 runs per game over that 10-game stretch. Makes sense then that the over is 12-4 in his 16 starts this season.
Still, Cueto has been doing his share of the work too. He allowed just one run in eight innings of work in his last start.
Slumping
Tommy Hanson (7-5, 4.50 ERA)
This young pitching phenom has hit a rough patch. He’s been shelled for 14 earned runs in his 7.1 innings – and that’s over two starts.
The hard-throwing righty - who can make batters look foolish at the plate - has just four K's in those two outings compared to three walks.
“[Hanson] left his breaking ball up,” Braves manager Bobby Cox told AP reporters after Atlanta fell 10-4 to the Tigers. “He had a great breaking ball at times, and a bad one at times. His mechanics are exactly what they’ve always been. But Tommy can pitch a lot better than he did, that’s for sure.”
Fox Saturday Baseball
By Judd Hall
Possible playoff matchups, divisional battles and seeing a phenom in the flesh are all on deck with Fox’s Saturday baseball. We’ve got three games showcasing those particular options for us for national broadcast. Let’s take a look at the matchups.
Marlins (37-41, -592) at Braves (46-33, +884) – 4:10 p.m. EDT
Atlanta is making the most of Bobby Cox’s final season as manager by holding onto the top spot in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Marlins are just hoping to keep relevant under new manager Edwin Rodriguez.
Tommy Hanson (7-5, 4.50) will get the starting nod to make things happen on Saturday afternoon. This game could be just what the doctor ordered for the young right-hander. Hanson hasn’t lasted four innings in his last two starts, giving up 14 earned runs in the process. However, he gone 2-0 with a 3.00 earned run average in three career starts against the Fish.
Florida comes into this game having a less than stellar start to the Rodriguez Era, going 3-5 since Fredi Gonzalez was relieved of his duties on June 23.
The Marlins will be looking to Anibal Sanchez (7-4, 3.18) for a jumpstart over the weekend. Sanchez is coming off of a great outing where he allowed just one earned run in six innings last Sunday at home against the Padres in a 4-2 losing decision. Florida has fared well in his recent road starts, evidenced by a 3-1 record in his last four starts away from Sun Life Stadium.
Florida has lost six of its last seven road games against NL East foes. The ‘under’ holds a slight 4-3 mark in those contests.
The Marlins also have an issue against right-handed pitching in day games as they’ve gone 2-4. Atlanta, on the other hand, is 8-1 against righties in afternoon tilts at Turner Field.
Rays (45-32, -152) at Twins (42-35, -60) – 4:10 p.m. EDT
There are always decent ways to spin a team that has won just four of their last 10 games. In the case of the Rays, they have picked up those last two games against Boston and hard fought series opener with Minnesota. We shouldn’t be surprised since Tampa Bay is 26-13 in fixtures played outside of Tropicana Field.
One of the bigger issues that Tampa Bay has had to deal with is poor backend pitching from Wade Davis (5-9, 4.08). The youngster had a respectable opening to the season. However, Davis has dropped five straight decisions. To be fair to him though, he did go 7.1 innings and allowed just two earned runs in a 2-1 loss at home to the D-Backs last Sunday. Unfortunately for bettors backing the Rays, Davis has lost three of his last four starts on the road.
Minnesota is experiencing similar problems when it comes to bad starts with Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.47), who will be taking the mound on Saturday. Liriano has dropped his last three appearances for the Twins. And Target Field hasn’t been friendly to the former dead-eye as the Twinkies have lost four of his last five starts at home.
Tampa Bay has dropped four of its last six road day games this season. Focus on those tilts against southpaws and you’ll see the Rays split those two battles. The ‘under’ cashed in both of those contests.
The Twins have done well in home daytime affairs this season by going 9-7. But they’ve won five of their last eight tests at Target Field.
Mets (44-35, +882) at Nationals (35-45, -57) – 4:10 p.m. EDT
The Mets are only two games out of first place in the NL East right now, but might as well be 20 games out. New York has to feel like that right now after suffering its ninth walk-off defeat in a 2-1 decision at Nationals Park on Thursday night.
R.A. Dickey (6-1, 2.98) will take the ball for New York on Saturday after a five ER, five inning performance that lead to a 10-3 loss at Florida on June 28. No reason to worry for Mets fans as Dickey had won six straight before the setback to the Marlins. Plus, the Mets are 3-1 in his last four road tests.
Washington will play with its new toy on national television as Stephen Strasburg (2-2, 2.27) heads out for his next chance for the likes of Tim Kurkjian to go into a flop sweat. The Nats have lost his last three starts. Yet Strasburg has pitched well enough to win those three games by striking out 26 hitters and walking two. The Nationals’ bats have done nothing to help out by scoring just one run in those three outings.
The Nationals are big $2.00 home favorites (risk $200 to win $100) for this contest. And they haven’t been home faves against NL East teams this season. Over the past five years, however, they are 5-7 in this role…losing three of their last four in this role.
New York hasn’t been a great team to back as a road pup against divisional rivals this year, losing both contests. The ‘over’ cashed tickets in both games as well.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 7/3
By Dan Bebe
National League
Reds (-115) @ Cubs with a total of N/A
Brandon Phillips is 4-for-10 with an RBI off Wells;
Derrek Lee is 9-for-25 with 3 RBI off Cueto;
Alfonso Soriano is 8-for-18 with 3 HR and 3 RBI off Cueto;
Geovany Soto is 6-for-16 with a HR and 2 RBI off Cueto;
Ryan Theriot is batting .391 off Cueto in 23 AB.
Johnny Cueto has been very, very good this year, at 8-2 with a 3.74 ERA, including a strong month of May and a solid end to June, but he's just 2-5 with a 4.59 ERA against the Cubbies in his career. The Reds beat the piss out of Chicago yesterday, 12-0, and that's going to create some line value, one would think, especially with Randy Wells posting a nice 2-0, 2.66 mark against the Reds lifetime. Leans: Cubs
Marlins @ Braves (-165) with a total of 8.5
Brian McCann is 5-for-16 with a HR and 5 RBI off Sanchez.
Anibal Sanchez hasn't been too impressive in his career against the Braves, and even though Hanson is trending way, way down and I'd love to tell you to throw your money at the Marlins, the entire equation isn't quite there. If Sanchez was a decent pitcher with better numbers against the Braves, I might get into this one, but as it stands, I think that might be forcing things. I will note, however, that both of these pitchers threw relatively well against the other team this season, though each would tell you they walked too many. Leans: Marlins
Mets @ Nationals (-180) with a total of 7
This line is intriguingly high, considering Strasburg has actually suffered a couple losses of late. I know his stuff is still disgustingly nasty, and I know his ERA is still at just 2.27, but considering the Nationals have been slipping quite a bit, and R.A. Dickey has been one of the most consistent starters on the Mets, this is a hefty price tag on the youngster. I'm personally not a fan of this game, since I'm not going to back Strasburg at the inflated price, but I want to see how Dickey responds off a poor start in Puerto Rico against the Marlins. Is he regressing? Potentially. Leans: None
Brewers @ Cardinals (-200) with a total of 8
Prince Fielder was 4-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Carpenter before this season;
Ryan Ludwick was 6-for-19 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Parra before 2010;
Aaron Miles is 3-for-8 off Parra;
Nick Stavinoha is 4-for-10 with 3 RBI off Parra.
Manny Parra actually beat St. Louis on ESPN Sunday Night baseball, and Carpenter got waxed by the Brewers way back at the beginning of the year, and that might be what's keeping this line at just -200. Seriously. It could be a lot worse. I do think the value still lies in the Brewers side of things, as the Cards just haven't looked that impressive to me, really, all season, and even though Carpenter is 9-1 with a 2.70 ERA, he hasn't been completely unhittable, just his typical very good self. It's too big of a longshot for a man with a conservative style of betting, but... Leans: Brewers
Phillies (-125) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5
Jayson Werth is 5-for-15 with a HR and 4 RBI off Maholm;
Ryan Church is 5-for-9 off Kendrick with a HR.
Kendrick faced the Pirates once this year and tossed a gem - 8 innings, 2 runs in a 12-2 win over Charlie Morton. He's 3-0 with a 2.45 lifetime ERA against the Pirates, so that start should have come as no surprise. Paul Maholm is still the Pirates best starter, and is 3-1 with a 3.29 ERA against the hard-hitting Phils. This line is eerily low for a Phillies/Pirates game, and I know I'm not one to bet solely on a line, but you simply can't back the Phils at that absurd price. You can potentially take the Under, though. Leans: Pirates, Under
Giants @ Rockies (-200) with a total of 7.5
Pablo Sandoval was 6-for-18 with a HR off Jimenez before 2010.
If there's one thing we almost know, definitively, it's that Barry Zito is going to pitch well in this one. He's 5-2 with a 1.95 lifetime ERA against the Rockies, and the success has continued in 2010. Zito's gone 15 innings and allowed just 3 runs against the Rockies so far this year, though both of those starts came at AT&T Park. Jimenez is 1-0 against the Giants this year with a complete game shutout in his belt. He's been regressing a tad, and his ERA has climbed all the way to 1.83 (hah), but the initial line move here has been towards the Rockies, and with the Giants offensive struggles, I don't have confidence in them. Leans: Under
Astros @ Padres (-175) with a total of 7.5
Geoff Blum is 3-for-9 with a HR and 5 RBI off Correia since '05;
Carlos Lee is 5-for-8 with 2 RBI off Correia since '05.
This is a ridiculously low total for these two guys, but the initial move has been down, so someone seems to know something that we don't. Bud Norris is 2-5 with a 6.84 ERA. Kevin Correia is 5-6 with a 5.49 ERA, and between the two guys, Norris has given up 14 runs in his last 3 starts, and Correia has given up 13. Is this total the biggest gift on the planet? I hardly think such a thing exists. Leans: Over
Dodgers (-160) @ D'backs with a total of 9.5
This is Lopez's 4th start this year against the Dodgers, so there's no lack of familiarity, there, and he's actually gotten better with each start. That being said, he beat them in the first start (thanks to a bad outing from Chad Billingsley), and lost the last 2, so it hasn't mattered that he's improved. Kershaw has only faced Arizona once this season, just due to scheduling, but he's just 1-1 with a 4.12 ERA against them in his short career. Of course, he's pitching better now, arguably, than at any point previously. His ERA is a little higher, but he's working on the free passes (which are still bad, but not as awful as before). It's too expensive to back him in this road game, though. Leans: None
American League
Blue Jays @ Yankees (-165) with a total of 8.5
Jose Bautista is 8-for-24 with a HR and 3 RBI off Pettitte between '05 and '09;
John Buck is 4-for-10 with a HR and 2 RBI off Pettitte before 2010;
Nick Green is 4-for-7 off Pettite.
REMATCH ALERT! Ricky Romero is 1-1 with a 4.74 ERA against the Yankees, and went 8 innings of 2-run ball against Pettitte earlier this year in a 3-2 Toronto win. Of course, that wasn't Andy's fault. He went 7.2 innings of 2-run ball, so it was an old-fashioned pitchers' duel before that final run made the difference. Pettitte struck out 10 in that one! So, they lock horns again, the cagey veteran and the young buck, two southpaws going head-to-head, and I don't believe I'd touch this one with a 10 foot pole. Leans: None
Rays @ Twins (-148) with a total of 8.5
Kelly Shoppach is 4-for-12 off Liriano;
B.J. Upton is 4-for-8 off Liriano.
When you look at the player numbers, and Kelly Shoppach is tied for the team lead in hits against a particular pitcher, that probably doesn't bode well. And, not surprisingly, Liriano is 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA against the Rays lifetime. Wade Davis has never faced the Twinkies. Looking at recent starts, Wade Davis is coming off his best work since early May. Was it an aberration, or a trend? Liriano is coming off a pretty ugly start against the Tigers, and he appears to be trending down a tad, but often good starters use a rough start like the one he had as a turning point. Leans: None
Athletics @ Indians with a total of N/A
Coco Crisp is 8-for-12 off Westbrook;
Jhonny Peralta is 3-for-5 off Braden;
Mike Redmond is 4-for-5 with 2 RBI off Braden.
Dallas Braden, somehow, is 0-2 with an 11.42 career ERA against the Indians. Westbrook is a very average 5-6, 4.08 guy against the A's. I'm waiting on this line to come out, because I have a weird feeling it's going to be a pretty short one. Braden is coming off a fairly unimpressive start against the Reds, somehow giving up just 4 runs (3 earned), despite allowing 10 hits in 6 innings. Westbrook is actually coming off a strong 6-inning effort against the Jays. Leans: Indians
Mariners @ Tigers (-175) with a total of 7.5
Milton Bradley was 3-for-6 off Verlander before 2010;
Ichiro was batting .367 with a HR and 5 RBI off Verlander before '10.
Jason Vargas is without a decision against Detroit, but did give up 2 runs in 5 innings of a start the Mariners would eventually win earlier this season. Verlander, and this is the interesting part, has lost to the Mariners twice already this year. He gave up 3 runs in 7 innings of a 4-2 loss in April, and gave up 5 runs in 7.1 innings of a 5-3 loss in late May. Third time's the charm? Maybe. The Tigers are damn tough to beat at home, so I'd say there's a decent shot he goes 7 innings again, gives up 2-3 runs, again, and this time probably wins. But that price is a little high considering the quality of the opposing starter. Leans: Tigers
Orioles @ Red Sox (-290) with a total of 8.5
DOUBLE REMATCH ALERT! Somehow, Guthrie has faced Boston twice, and he's faced Jon Lester both times...and both times, he's lost, but not for lack of effort. Guthrie gave up 3 runs in 6 innings in a 4-3 loss to Boston the first time, then gave up 2 runs in 7.1 frames of an eventual 8-2 loss. So, a tip of the cap to the Baltimore bullpen on that meltdown. Still, in terms of guys that can beat a team (or an opposing starter) 3 times, Lester is probably in that category. He's 11-0 against Baltimore in his career, with a 2.06 ERA, including those 2 starts this year, and he's let to allow a run this season to the O's. It might be worth a quarter unit, just on principle, but it sure as heck isn't worth a full play. Leans: Orioles
White Sox @ Rangers (-130) with a total of 9.5
Elvis Andrus is a perfect 3-for-3 off Danks with an RBI;
Nelson Crus is 3-for-8 off Danks.
I'm hesitant to say it, but I actually like the kid, here. This price is relatively low for some reason (the only things I can think of are that the White Sox are getting residual money from the winning streak, and the Rangers lost 2 of 3 in Anaheim). Still, these Rangers are like bolts of lightning at home, scoring in outrageous bunches. Danks is 1-2 lifetime against Texas with a marginal 4.38 ERA. Hunter has never faced the White Sox, so there's a slight edge to the big youngster. There's certainly the possibility that the Rangers tail off a tad after such a hot streak, but with all these home games, it doesn't seem hugely likely just yet, and with Danks coming off a poor start against the Cubbies, we've got that downward trend that makes us salivate. Leans: Rangers
Royals @ Angels (-172) with a total of 9
Willie Bloomquist was 3-for-8 off Santana before 2010, since '05;
David DeJesus was batting .429 off Santana before 2010;
Bobby Abreu is 5-for-7 with 3 RBI off Chen.
The rest of the Angels lineup hasn't seen a great deal of Chen, and the Angels missed him in the rotation on their trip to KC back in late May. The Royals probably wish they missed Santana, who gave up just a single run in 7 innings of work. Bruce Chen, to me, is the story here, as Santana is going to give at least a decent effort. Chen's been serviceable this year, but his walks are simply too high for the success to last. He might very well get lit up, here, and the line reflects that. No thanks. Leans: Angels
Tips and Trends
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Mets: New York is right in the thick of the National League playoff chase, as they currently would be the Wild Card representative if the playoffs started today. New York is 44-35 SU this season, despite only being 16-23 SU on the road. The Mets are +9.25 and +21.36 units both SU and on the RL overall this season. P R.A. Dickey will take the mound today, as he looks to keep his surprise season going. Dickey is 6-1 this year, with an ERA of 2.98 and a WHIP of 1.29. The Mets are 12-5 in their last 17 games against a right-handed starter. The Mets are 7-19 in their last 26 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. New York is 5-0 in Dickey's last 5 starts as an underdog. New York is 6-0 in Dickey's last 6 starts on grass. The Mets are 6-1 in Dickey's last 7 starts overall.
Mets are 7-2 last 9 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-0-1 last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Key Injuries - SS Jose Reyes (back) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 2
Nationals (-180, O/U 7): Washington has dominated the Mets this season, winning 6 of the 9 games played between the 2 this year. Washington figures to have a great chance for another win today, as they send their superstar P Stephen Strasburg to the mound. Strasburg has been brilliant this season, going 2-2 with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.01. Strasburg has an astounding 48 strikouts to only 7 walks overall this season. Washington is -0.60 and -3.67 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. The Nationals are 44-20 in their last 64 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Nationals are 6-20 in their last 26 games against a right-handed starter. Washington is 1-4 in their last 5 home games against a right-handed starter. Washington is 0-5 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Nationals are 7-2 last 9 games as a home favorite.
Under is 8-0 last 8 home games with the total set between 7 and 8.5 runs.
Key Injuries - C Jesus Flores (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
White Sox: Chicago is one of the few teams in the majors with a winning record both at home and on the road this season. Chicago is 40-37 SU this season, including 20-18 SU on the road. The White Sox are +0.14 and -6.54 units both SU and on the RL this season. Lefty John Danks has been rather mediocre so far this year, as he's 7-6 with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.21. Chicago is counting on Danks to pitch better down the stretch of te season in the American League Central. The White Sox are 14-3 in their last 17 games against a right-handed starter. The White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Chicago is 8-2 in their last 10 road games against a right-handed starter. The White Sox are 8-1 in Danks' last 9 Saturday starts. Chicago is 15-5 in Danks' last 20 starts during game 2 of a series. The White Sox are 8-3 in Danks' last 11 starts with 5 days of rest.
White Sox are 5-0 last 5 games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-3 last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Key Injuries - 3B Mark Teahen (finger) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Rangers (-130, O/U 9.5): Texas has been brilliant this season, as they have the 2nd best record in the majors at 47-31 SU. Texas is +12.01 and +0.06 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Texas has been dominant at home this year, going 28-12 SU. The Rangers have a 3.5 game lead in the American League West division. P Tommy Hunter has been exceptional this season, going 4-0 with an ERA of 2.15 and a WHIP of 1.09. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 home games against a left-handed starter. Texas is 7-0 in Hunter's last 7 starts as a home favorite. Texas is 11-1 in Hunter's last 12 starts as a favorite. The Rangers are 4-1 in Hunter's last 5 starts against the American League Central. The Rangers are 6-1 in Hunter's last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Rangers are 17-5 last 22 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 11-2-1 last 14 home games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - C Matt Treanor (knee) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)