Saturday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Javier Vazquez (9-7, 4.54 ERA), New York Yankees
Vazquez is going head to head against a pitcher fresh off a no-hitter but you could still make an argument that the Yankee hurler is in a better pitching groove than the Rays Matt Garza.
The former Atlanta Brave is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA in July. The Yanks are 7-3 in his last 10 starts and the under is also 7-3 over the same stretch.
Tom Gorzelanny (6-5, 3.22 ERA), Chicago Cubs
Not much is going right for the Cubs these days. Gorzelanny, who’s supposed to be a back-of-the-rotation guy, is arguably Chicago’s best starter right now while Carlos Zambrano, who’s supposed to be their ace, is figuring out things in anger management classes.
Gorzelanny owns a 2.82 ERA over his last five appearances and the Cubs are 4-0 in his last four starts.
Slumping
Jeff Suppan (0-6, 6.18 ERA), St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards didn’t land Roy Oswalt which means they’re still looking for somebody to mercifully take over Suppan’s spot in the rotation. St. Louis is 2-7 in Suppan’s seven starts since he was rejoined his former team.
Here’s the weird part: the under is 6-1 in those seven games despite Suppan’s 4.50 ERA. Might have something to do with higher totals. Oddsmakers put the total at 12 in Suppan’s last appearance.
Brad Bergesen (3-9, 6.95 ERA), Baltimore Orioles
It’s hard to remember all the promise Bergesen showed in 2009. That’s because there’s been little shine to his performance in 2010.
Newly appointed manager Buck Showalter is scratching his head now trying to figure out how to get Bergesen back on track.
All we can say is good luck, Buck.
The 24-year-old is 0-6 with an 8.92 ERA in his last eight starts.
Saturday FOX Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Saturday FOX card showcases three key games around baseball, as the trade deadline comes to a close in the afternoon. The Red Sox try to make up ground in the AL East behind the Rays and Yankees, while the Giants and Dodgers continue their series in San Francisco. We'll start in Cincinnati with a pair of first-place teams hooking up, while looking to extend the lead in their respective divisions.
Braves at Reds - 4:10 PM EST
Two teams that weren't expected to be in this spot nearing the end of July try to improve their standing in the playoff race inside the National League. Cincinnati owns the worst home mark of any above team above .500 in the NL at 31-22, but the Reds make up for it with a 26-24 record on the road. The same can't be said for Atlanta on the highway, as the Braves are just 24-30 away from Turner Field.
Bronson Arroyo (10-6, 4.21 ERA) looks for his first win in three starts, coming off a strong effort in a 3-2 loss at Milwaukee. Arroyo allowed three earned runs in eight innings, but a late Jim Edmonds pinch-hit homer broke a 2-2 tie, giving the Brewers the lone victory in a three-game set. The Reds' righty has been a toss-up when pitching as home as Cincinnati is 5-5 in his 10 starts at the Great American Ballpark. Three of Arroyo's last four home starts have finished 'under' the total, as the Reds have lost to last-place teams Washington and Cleveland in this span.
The Braves send out Jair Jurrjens (3-3, 4.37 ERA), who had been the missing piece to this Atlanta rotation during its run to the top of the NL East in June. Atlanta suffered the first loss with Jurrjens on the hill since his return from the DL, as the Braves lost in walk-off fashion to the Marlins. Jurrjens has been solid in two road starts off the DL, but received no-decisions in extra-innings affairs at Philadelphia and Florida. Jurrjens is 0-3 in three career starts against the Reds, including a home loss as $2.45 'chalk' last September.
Atlanta has struggled mightily on the road during the day, compiling a 5-10 mark, while plating 11 runs the last five in this situation. Cincinnati is 3-5 the previous eight home matinee games, as the 'under' has cashed in five straight.
Dodgers at Giants - 4:10 PM EST
Los Angeles has made the NLCS in each of Joe Torre's first two seasons as skipper of the Dodgers, but the thought of even making the postseason seems like a reach right now. The Dodgers have two teams to catch right now, the Padres and Giants. San Diego owns the best record in the NL, while San Francisco has a 3 ½ game lead over Los Angeles in the Wild Card race.
A pair of reliable veterans takes the mound at AT&T Park with Chad Billingsley and Barry Zito squaring off. Billingsley (9-5, 4.00 ERA) will start on short rest for the first time in his five-year career, as he looks to duplicate his last outing against the Giants. The Dodgers' right-hander has tossed 15 consecutive scoreless innings in wins over San Francisco and San Diego, but the big statement was made in a complete-game, five-hitter against the Giants to avoid a home sweep. Since coming off the DL on June 28, the Dodgers are 5-1 in Billingsley's last six starts.
The losing pitcher in that 2-0 setback at Dodger Stadium to Billingsley on July 21 was Zito (8-6, 3.49 ERA), who has dropped two straight after three consecutive wins. Three of Zito's best outings this season have come against the Dodgers, but he has nothing to show for it except for three losses. The former Cy Young Award winner has allowed 16 hits and five earned runs in 20.2 innings, as the Giants have scored a meager three runs in the three defeats.
The road team has grabbed six of the nine matchups this season, while the Dodgers are 3-0 at AT&T Park. San Francisco is just 9-9 in day games at home, but Bruce Bochy's squad has lost four straight in this spot, all as favorites. The Dodgers have compiled a 6-10 mark on the highway in games under the sun, as Billingsley is responsible for three of those wins.
Tigers at Red Sox - 4:10 PM EST
The three-horse race inside the AL Central has lost one of its stallions, with the Tigers dropping 13 of 16 games to fall six games behind the White Sox. The other trio fighting for two spots in the playoffs may have one club unable to make up ground with the Red Sox sitting 5 ½ games behind the Rays for the Wild Card.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-3, 4.09 ERA) makes his first home start since June 30, as the Red Sox righty is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.93 in his last three outings. Dice-K has delivered seven quality outings in his last 10 trips to the mound, but the Sox have played only three games in this stretch. Matsuzaka is a Tiger slayer in his short career, going 4-1 against Detroit, including a pair of wins at Fenway Park.
The Tigers counter with Max Scherzer (7-8, 4.45 ERA), who has turned into an automatic 'fade' on the road this season. Detroit is 1-9 in his 10 road outings, coming off a 5-0 loss at Tampa Bay as Matt Garza no-hit the Tigers. Scherzer actually had a no-no himself going in the sixth inning, but Matt Joyce's grand slam erased any shot at a Detroit win. The biggest problem that Scherzer has endured on the road is a lack of run support, as the Tigers are averaging 2.6 runs/game in his starts on the highway.
Detroit owns a dismal 1-8 mark the last nine day games on the road dating back to late May, including a 6-1 'under' run over the previous seven. The Red Sox aren't exactly in an advantageous spot playing at Fenway under the sun, going 3-9 in this situation.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 7/31
By Dan Bebe
National League
Braves @ Reds (-125) with a total of 8.5
I'm having trouble figuring out how Jurrjens has a lifetime ERA of 6.75 against the Reds, since Brandon Phillips is the closest thing the Reds have to a guy that hits him hard, and Phillips is just 3-for-7 with a homer. Somehow, though, the Reds have been able to squeeze plenty of runs out of Jurrjens, so be careful there. On the other side, Arroyo has been extremely consistent this year, hasn't faced the Braves yet, but certainly has some history with them. He's 5-3 with a 5.90 ERA, and the Braves regulars named Glaus, Chipper, McCann, and Hinske have all homered off Arroyo in the past. I might look at the Over, but both pitchers could put on a show, too, so, pretty tough call, here.
Dodgers @ Giants (-125) with a total of 7.5
How unlucky can Barry Zito be, this year? The answer, so far, is pretty damn unlucky when facing the Dodgers. He's gone against them three times, three times he's pitched extremely well, and the Giants have lost all 3. The most recent loss came about 10 days ago, when his opponent today, Billingsley, threw a complete game shutout the day after the Mattingly/Broxton silliness. The Dodgers tend to play pretty well in San Francisco, and I'm sure they'd love a 4th win against Zito, but right now, the Dodgers aren't really backable unless you're pretty positive they're going to hold the opponent to 0-2 runs. And for what it's worth, they might. Billingsley's got his season ERA down to 4, so he's one shutout inning away from ducking under that mark, and he has a solid career mark against the Giants of 5-2, 3.22.
Brewers @ Astros (-120) with a total of 8.5
Dave Bush has been surprisingly solid against the Astros, and honestly, he remains one of the biggest enigmas in baseball, to me. Every time I expect him to pitch well, he gets murdered, and vice versa. So, I expect him to pitch well today, which means, what? Not a great deal. On the other side, Wandy is finally getting his act together, as opponent's hits are way down, and he, too, pitched well against this opponent already this year. I can't help but think that the Astros recent run of pitching success could carry over. The concern, of course, is whether Houston has any shot of scoring enough. They've been playing alright, but Bush's history with them makes me think they'll have to fight for this one.
Phillies (-135) @ Nationals with a total of 9
This line doesn't make a lick of sense, to me. I mean, we're talking about Ross freaking Detwiler, here. I know Blanton's 5.85 ERA makes him look like a terrible choice to those that bet based entirely on ERA, but he's coming off, arguably, his best start of the season, so that's no time to be fading a guy, right? Detwiler is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA against the Phillies, and Blanton 2-3 with a 6.51 ERA against the Nationals, and I can't help but wonder if the teams are going to score some runs. If Blanton wasn't trending up, I'd be all over Washington and the Over, but as it is, this line is so weird that I can't touch the Phils, and Detwiler is so poor (and short of arm strength to go deep in the game) that I can't touch the Nats, either.
D'backs @ Mets (-135) with a total of 8.5
Enright pitched an absolute gem against the Mets in his first effort, but seeing a pitcher for a second time, and doing so in their home ballpark, I can't help but think that Enright's low ERA and strong start to his Big League career are actually creating some small amount of value on the unpredictable Takahashi. The D'backs on the road are just unbelievably bad, and Takahashi is actually coming off a decent start in LA back on the 22nd. I can't believe I'm saying this, since Takahashi was a guy I was looking to fade earlier this year, but I believe the Mets, despite probably being the public side, are going to take care of business, even against a solid young hurler on the other side.
Pirates @ Cardinals (-200) with a total of 9.5
Out of price, out of mind, though I suppose the Over is a possibility.
Cubs @ Rockies (-145) with a total of 9
This game could be ugly, and there are angles supporting just about every play imaginable. Thus, I'll just start off by saying this is a total and complete pass, for me. Gorzelanny has a career 10.80 ERA against the Rockies, but Colorado has struggled with lefties this year. Hammel is on a poor stretch, but pitches much better at home. The Cubs aren't hitting right now, but this is Coors Field. The Rockies weren't hitting, but then woke up a couple days back. Will it stick? Get me away from this game, it's making me feel queasy.
Marlins @ Padres (-125) with a total of 7
This game is interesting because of the short line, but also because you have to think Nolasco is going to have a nice fan base. He's 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA against the Padres, but he's done a decent job of keeping them in the yard over the years. Correia is 2-2 with a 6.94 ERA against the Marlins, including 5 innings of 4-run ball this year in a game the Padres won 6-4. Again, though, when a pitcher picks up a win like that, you have to think that those types of starts will even out, and I can't help but think that if Nolasco can go 6-7 innings, and limit the impact of the Marlins pen, they pose a threat to San Diego's weakest starter.
American League
Indians @ Blue Jays (-200) with a total of 8.5
Out of price, out of mind. Inflated number, no thanks, especially with Toronto mashing again.
Tigers @ Red Sox (-175) with a total of 9
Out of price, out of mind, again. Tigers are punchless, and even 6+ no-hit innings wouldn't do the trick, right now.
Flash: http://Mariners @ Twins (-110) with a total of 7.5
I wish the Mariners could hit, even a little. Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in baseball, maybe the best in the AL over the last 2 months, and he just has nothing to show for it. He's 4-3 with a 2.56 ERA against the Twins, lifetime, though Joe Mauer and Jim Thome have actually hit him pretty hard. Slowey stinks, much like the other Minnesota starters, but the Seattle offense can make a lot of guys look good, and I can't believe I'm saying this, but this Mariners offense is pure fade material, right now. Not sure I can pull the trigger on Slowey, though, as Jose Lopez is 4-for-6 off him with 2 homers, and Russell Branyan is 5-for-12 with 2 dingers of his own.
Athletics @ White Sox (-155) with a total of 7.5
John Danks is 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA against the Athletics in his career. That's considered ownage in my book. It's funny, too, since there are 3 or 4 A's that are batting around .350 off him, but they just can't get anyone across the plate. Danks didn't face the A's in the recent series in Oakland, though Braden did face the White Sox, and picked up a win with a decent, if unspectacular performance. Braden has picked up a couple wins, now, after a long losing spell, and I will admit, that's about the only factor that works for Oakland in this one. Danks is extremely reliable, especially against a team mostly without power, and I have to believe the Sox will scratch across at least a couple off Braden, who is largely a finesse guy.
Orioles @ Royals (-245) with a total of 8.5
Out of price, out of mind. Hell, maybe just throw a tenth of a unit on the O's.
Yankees @ Rays (-110) with a total of 8.5
The solid weekend series continues with this one, Vazquez trying to atone for his early season debacle against the Rays, and Garza trying to follow up his no-no against the Tigers with a good outing against a team with, to be polite, a "slightly" better offense. Garza has been good in his efforts against the Yanks, though his record might not show it. He's 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA against the Bombers, but somehow hasn't faced them this year due to scheduling. I really like Tampa in this series, and as I said in yesterday's blog, they would seem to want this series more than New York, and with the Yanks' pen in a slight state of turmoil, it's not a bad time to try to capitalize.
Rangers @ Angels with a total of N/A
I had heard rumors that Scott Feldman would go in this one, but with Texas's day off earlier this week, they have the opportunity to skip Feldman, and given his poor effort against LA a week ago, and his general "suckiness" this year, I wouldn't be all that surprised. We'll get a line on this one soon enough, but unless Texas jumps to a hugely public starter, there isn't going to be a ton of value on the Angels side. Haren gets public money regardless of his season numbers, but in the same vein, Texas has been getting a ton of media attention, so they have a couple of guys that could start this game that would balance the action. Also, is Haren completely healthy after getting nailed with a line drive? Dangerous time to grab the traded man.
Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Dodgers: Los Angeles has lost their last 3 games, and are currently sliding further and further back in the National League playoff race. The Dodgers are 54-49 SU this season, including only 22-28 SU on the road. Los Angeles is -3.50 and -7.87 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. P John Ely will take the mound today, as he is 4-7 with an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.32 this season. The Dodgers are 2-5 in their last 7 games against a left-handed starter. Los Angeles is 1-5 in their last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Dodgers are 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog. Los Angeles is 1-5 in Ely's last 6 starts.
Dodgers are 20-8 last 28 games against the National League West.
Under is 4-0 in Ely's last 4 starts as an underdog.
Key Injuries - LF Manny Ramirez (calf) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 2
Giants (-120, O/U 7.5): San Francisco has won 7 of their last 10 games to climb within 2.5 games of the National League West division lead. San Francisco is an impressive 59-45 SU on the season, including 31-20 SU at home. Lefty Barry Zito will make the home start, as he is 8-6 with an ERA of 3.49 and a WHIP of 1.27 this year. The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 games during game 2 of a series. San Francisco is 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games. The Giants are 12-2 in their last 14 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Giants are 10-2 in their last 12 games as the listed favorite. San Francisco is 11-3 in their last 14 games against a right-handed starter. The Giants are 5-1 in Zito's last 6 Saturday starts. San Francisco is 18-5 in Zito's last 23 starts during game 2 of a series. The Giants are 9-4 in Zito's last 13 home starts against a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 1-4 in Zito's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Giants are 5-0 last 5 games against the National League West.
Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies
Cubs: Chicago has also lost their past 3 games, and appear to be losing a couple of key players today at the Trading Deadline. P Ted Lilly and others appear to be suiting up for the final time as a Chicago Cub today. The Cubs were never apart of the playoff conversation this year, easily one of the most disappointing teams in baseball this year. Chicago is -23.07 and -12.71 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. P Tom Gorzelanny will make the road start tonight, as he is 6-5 with an ERA of 3.22 and a WHIP of 1.43 this year. The Cubs are 15-41 in their last 56 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Chicago is 1-4 in their last 5 games against the National League West. The Cubs are 4-0 in Gorzelanny's last 4 starts as an underdog. The Cubs are 5-1 in Gorzelanny's last 6 starts against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 4-1 in Gorzelanny's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Cubs are 1-4 in Gorzelanny's last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Key Injuries - C Geovany Soto (foot) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5
Rockies (-145, O/U 9): Colorado has fallen completely out of the National League playoff chase, thanks to 8 losses in their last 10 games. Colorado is 53-50 SU this year, including a sterling 33-18 SU at home. The Rockies are -6.29 and +5.80 both SU and on the RL overall this season. P Jason Hammel will look to continue his outstanding season, as he is 7-6 with an ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.35. Colorado is 39-16 in their last 55 games against the National League Central. The Rockies are 28-12 in their last 40 home games against a left-handed starter. Colorado is 1-4 in their last 5 Saturday games overall. The Rockies are 1-6 in their last 7 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Rockies are 4-0 in Hammel's last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. Colorado is 8-1 in Hammel's last 9 starts against the National League Central. Colorado is 6-1 in Hammel's last 7 starts as a home favorite.
Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 14-5 in their last 19 Saturday games.
Key Injuries - 1B Todd Helton (back) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 7 (OVER - Total of the Day)