Four on the Fourth
By Kevin Rogers
The Independence Day slate of baseball under the sun shouldn't disappoint, as four matchups highlight the late afternoon card. The team owning the second-best record in the National League will send out its star pitcher. But, it's not the Phillies or the Mets. Instead, it's the San Francisco Giants, who will trot out reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum against the Astros.
Astros at Giants - 4:10 PM EST
Yes, we're shocked too to see the Giants playing nearly .540 baseball at this point of the season, but Bruce Bochy has received outstanding pitching from his staff. Lincecum has been nearly flawless over the last five weeks, compiling eight straight quality starts, while allowing only nine earned runs. Lincecum's strikeout total is 66 in this stretch, as the 'under' has hit in six of eight starts.
The Giants are coming off a four-game split at St. Louis, returning home after a 5-5 road trip. San Francisco has played well at home all season, winning 12 of its past 16 at AT&T Park, with just a brief slip-up in Interleague Play by getting swept by the Angels.
Journeyman Russ Ortiz has been on the wrong end of his last three starts, with Houston losing each game. Ortiz hasn't pitched poorly in this stretch, putting together quality outings in each start, as each loss has come by a run each.
The Astros have been up and down all season, but are starting to turn the corner in a wide-open NL Central. Houston took two of three at home against Detroit, before beating San Diego three of four at Petco Park.
Houston captured seven of eight meetings in this series last season, including two against Lincecum. In the second Astros victory over Lincecum in September, the Giants ace was knocked out of the game in the fifth inning by a line-drive to the knee. Lincecum's numbers as a home favorite during the day won't turn heads, as the Giants are 8-6 in his career in this role. San Francisco is 7-3 during the day this season at home against right-handed starters.
LVSC has listed the Giants as a $1.85 favorite with the total set at 7 ½.
Dodgers at Padres - 4:10 PM EST
Game two of the Manny Ramirez re-emergence comes Saturday afternoon at Petco Park, as the Dodgers and Padres meet up. Despite missing Manny for 50 games, the Dodgers still have a firm grip on the NL West race, even though the Giants and Rockies have played better over the last month. San Diego, meanwhile, is trying to weather the storm without its top two pitchers, Jake Peavy and Chris Young.
Ex-Padre southpaw Randy Wolf gets the ball for the Dodgers, going for only his fourth win of the season. Wolf has been involved in his share of no-decisions this season (11), but L.A. has won 11 of his 17 starts. Wolf started two games against the Padres earlier in the year, with both games finishing 'under' the total.
Joshua Geer has strung together three straight quality starts, despite losses in two of those outings. Geer's home ERA is not pretty (4.98), but his WHIP at Petco Park is a respectable 1.18. The former Rice Owl has seen the 'under' hit in four of six home starts, including the last two against the Astros and Mariners.
The Dodgers are 7-3 this season against the Padres, while the 'under' has cashed seven times.
Los Angeles is listed as a $1.40 road 'chalk' according to LVSC, with the total listed at 7 ½.
Mets at Phillies - 4:10 PM EST
Two struggling division rivals hook up at Citizens Bank Park, as the Mets and Phillies both try to break out of their funk. It would be tough to find a division leader at this point of the season that sits 13-22 at home, but that's the case for Charlie Manuel's club.
The ageless wonder Jamie Moyer has picked up victories in his last two starts against Tampa Bay and Toronto, but his ERA still sits at 6.05. The Mets are very familiar with Moyer, as the lefty has faced New York nine times since the start of 2008. There is no advantage whether Moyer pitches at home or on the road in this matchup, as the Phillies are 4-5 overall in his nine starts. Moyer has allowed 11 home runs at Citizens Bank Park this season, including two against the Mets back in early May.
Fernando Nieve has been a nice addition to the Mets staff, winning three of his four starts. The former Astros right-hander hasn't seen cupcake lineups either, so far facing the Brewers, Rays, Cardinals, and Yankees. Nieve compiled three quality starts before getting knocked around by Milwaukee his last outing, allowing 11 hits and three earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched.
The Mets have taken four of seven meetings this season against the Phillies, as Philadelphia's three wins have all come in extra-innings. The Phillies are 11-2 in Moyer's last 13 home starts during the day, dating back to the end of the 2006 season.
LVSC has installed the Phillies as a $1.50 home favorites with the total at 10.
Tigers at Twins - 4:10 PM EST
The AL Central division has turned into a three-horse race between the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins, separated by just three games heading into the weekend. Detroit and Minnesota continue their series from the Metrodome, as the Tigers send out right-hander Edwin Jackson against Twins lefty Francisco Liriano.
Jackson has turned into a fantastic off-season pick-up from Tampa Bay, owning an ERA of 2.49, while going 6-4. His record would be better if the Tigers provided Jackson more than 3.8 runs a contest in his starts. However, Detroit's inability to score runs with Jackson on the mound has resulted in ten 'unders' in his 14 starts, including eight of nine on the road.
Liriano has been trying to reclaim the magic of 2006 when he looked like the second-coming of former team ace Johan Santana. But, Liriano's 12-3 mark three seasons ago seems like a memory, with the southpaw going 4-8 this season with an ERA of 5.62. Liriano did pitch in the month of June, with Minnesota winning four of his five starts (all four victories came on the road). Liriano has allowed 14 earned runs in his last three trips to the Metrodome mound, losing to the Pirates and Red Sox, while beating the Mariners.
Jackson and Liriano's daytime numbers are on different ends of the spectrum. Jackson is 2-0 with an ERA of 3.18, while the Tigers have won four of his five day outings. Liriano, meanwhile, has been a good 'fade' in the day, as Minnesota has dropped three of his four starts under the sun (even though the game is under a dome).
Minnesota is a slight home favorite at a $1.15, with the total set at 8 ½ according to LVSC.
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Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By Covers.com
Streaking
Tim Lincecum (San Francisco Giants)
The 25-year-old right-hander appeared to have a hangover from winning the NL Cy Young award to start the season. But after a dominant June, he looks poised to retain his award.
Lincecum failed to pitch at least seven innings only once in six starts last month, allowing a stingy eight earned runs over a staggering 48 2-3 innings. He finished the month 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA, upping his numbers on the year to 8-2 with a 2.37 ERA and a razor-thin 1.07 WHIP (walks + hits over innings pitched).
Houston, you’re going to have a problem.
"It takes some people longer to get ready for a season," Lincecum told the Associated Press. "I feel like I'm kind of getting into that zone right now. Things are coming easier. Mechanics are easier. I'm not thinking too much out there."
Aaron Cook (Colorado Rockies)
The key to Cook’s success last month is pretty obvious: get ground ball outs.
Cook (8-3, 3.77 ERA) has excelled at keeping the ball down, inducing 87 ground ball outs in June – just 19 less than he totaled in the first two months of the season combined.
In his past five starts Cook has yielded no more than one earned run while lasting at least six innings four times. His lone blemish was a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay in Denver in which he gave up all three run in seven innings. If Arizona doesn’t get to him early, the Diamondbacks are going to get grilled by Cook.
Slumping
Jason Berken (Baltimore Orioles)
The good news for Baltimore is that Berken finally has his ERA below a touchdown. But a 6.44 ERA also isn’t anything to stand up and cheer about.
Berken (1-5) is in the midst of a summer swoon, as he was absolutely abused by opposing hitters last month. In five starts he went 0-4 with an 8.51 ERA, allowing at least four earned runs in all but one outing. He averaged fewer than five innings per start and added a hideous 1.78 WHIP.
He’s going to have a devil of a time against the Angels.
"Every outing for me is a learning experience," Berken told the Associated Press. "The last thing I am going to do is sit here and feel sorry for myself. It's tough to pitch in the big leagues."
Vin Mazzaro (Oakland Athletics)
Oakland’s 22-year-old prospect looked phenomenal in his first two outings, yielding no runs in his first 13 2-3 innings in the majors early last month. But big-league lineups have been unkind to him in his past two starts, scoring seven runs on 12 hits over just 11 innings in a pair of loses.
Young pitching, however, has been the way of the Athletics this season, who start four rookies in their rotation. Mazzaro’s task won’t get any easier against the Indians, who can score runs in bunches and are due to break out of a hitting slump
Toronto (42-39) at N.Y. Yankees (46-33)
The Blue Jays trot out ace right-hander Roy Halladay (10-2, 2.56 ERA) to face struggling righty Chien-Ming Wang (1-6, 10.06) and the Yankees in the second game of a four-game series at Yankee Stadium.
New York rode the arm of A.J. Burnett to a 4-2 victory in Friday’s series opener, with the right-hander allowing two runs on six hits and two walks in seven innings, with seven strikeouts. The Yankees have won eight of their last nine and are on further upticks of 6-0 against right-handers, 6-1 against winning teams and 17-8 in the Bronx.
On the flip side, Toronto is on slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 against winning teams, 0-4 on Saturday and 3-11 inside the A.L. East, but they are on a 5-1 surge on the road against winning teams.
New York is 3-1 this season against Toronto, after going 8-9 against the Jays last year, and the Yanks are 5-2 in Wang’s last seven home starts against Toronto. But with Halladay on the hill, the Blue Jays are on rolls in this rivalry of 21-7 overall and 10-4 at Yankee Stadium.
Toronto had won seven of nine behind Halladay before losing in his last two starts. On Monday at home against Tampa Bay, Halladay allowed two runs on five hits and two walks in six innings, but his teammates didn’t put up a run until the eighth inning of a 4-1 loss. Halladay is 4-0 with a solid 1.88 ERA in six road starts this year, and he’s 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 33 lifetime appearances (31 starts) against the Pinstripes. On May 12, he allowed just one run on five hits, with no walks and five strikeouts, in a complete-game 5-1 home win over New York.
With Halladay starting, Toronto is on runs of 89-43 overall, 13-6 on the road, 4-1 against winning teams and 45-18 in division play.
Wang finally notched his first win of the season last Sunday, yielding two runs on four hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-2 road win against the Mets. The 29-year-old is 0-2 with a whopping 11.57 ERA in four home appearances (three starts) this year, and he’s 4-2 with a 4.63 ERA in nine career starts against Toronto.
New York is 48-23 in Wang’s last 71 starts and 39-16 in his last 55 home outings, but the Mets are on slides behind the right-hander of 1-4 in division play and 2-8 with Wang an underdog.
The under for Toronto is on runs of 6-0-1 overall, 21-8 in the A.L. East and 12-5 on the road, but with Halladay starting, the over is on streaks of 17-6 overall, 8-3 against winning teams, 8-3 in division contests and 7-3 on the road. Likewise, with Wang starting for New York, the over is on rolls of 9-4-1 overall, 11-4-2 against winning teams and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and OVER
N.Y. Mets (39-40) at Philadelphia (40-37)
The Phillies send veteran left-hander Jamie Moyer (6-6, 2.05 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park for the second game of a three-game weekend set with the N.L. East rival Mets, who will counter with right-hander Fernando Nieve (3-1, 2.25).
In Friday’s opener, Philadelphia rolled to a 7-2 victory, putting up all seven runs over the first three innings and coasting from there. The Phillies, though, are still a dismal 14-22 at home this season and are on a number of negative streaks, including 4-12 overall, 2-9 as a favorite, 1-6 at home and 6-16 at home against righties.
New York is 13-7 in its last 20 division contests, but is otherwise on slides of 2-6 overall, 1-6 against winning teams and 1-4 on Saturdays.
The Mets went 4-1 in their first five games of the year against the Phillies, but Philadelphia has rebounded to win the last three in row in this rivalry, and the Phils are 4-1 in Moyer’s last five starts against New York.
Philadelphia has won in three of Moyer’s last four starts, including a 5-4 victory Sunday at Toronto, where the 46-year-old allowed four runs on five hits (three homers) and two walks in just five innings, yet still got the winning decision. Moyer is 2-4 with an inflated 7.15 ERA in seven home starts this season, and he’s 7-5 with a more respectable 3.66 ERA in 20 career starts against the Mets.
However, in back-to-back starts against New York in May -- one at home, one on the road -- he allowed 12 earned runs on 14 hits and six walks in just eight total innings. On May 7 at New York, he got pelted for seven runs on seven hits and two walks in just 2 1/3 innings of a 7-5 loss. Despite those negatives, the Phils are 32-11 in Moyer’s last 43 starts against N.L. East foes.
Nieve won his first three starts of the year, getting plenty of support as the Mets pushed 22 runs across while Nieve allowed just three runs over 18 2/3 innings (1.44 ERA). However, in his last outing, Nieve got roughed up for three runs on 11 hits and a walk in just 3 1/3 innings Monday during a 10-6 loss at Milwaukee. Nieve is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA in three outings (two starts) on the road this year, and though he’s only pitched 1 1/3 career innings against the Phillies (over five relief appearances), he’s 0-1 with an astronomical 33.75 ERA against them.
The under is on a 12-5-1 roll with the Phils a home chalk and is 7-1 for Philadelphia behind Moyer. The under is also on a 6-2 run for New York in division play. But in this rivalry, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings at Citizens Bank Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Saturday, July 4
N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia (4:10 p.m. EDT). Two struggling NL East rivals face off. The Mets send Fernando Nieve (3-1) to the mound to face Jamie Moyer (6-6).
STARS
Friday
-Albert Pujols, Cardinals, hit his club-record fourth grand slam of the season and 10th of his career as St. Louis beat the Cincinnati Reds 7-4.
-Brooks Conrad, Braves, smacked a pinch-hit, go-ahead three-run homer in the seventh inning to lead Atlanta past Washington for its season-high fifth straight victory.
-Rob Johnson, Mariners, doubled home two runs in the 11th inning and Seattle beat the Red Sox 7-6 on Friday night.
-Shin-Soo Choo, Indians, homered twice and drove in a career-high seven runs to lead Cleveland to a 15-3 victory over the Athletics.
-Rodrigo Lopez, Phillies, took a three-hitter into the seventh inning and earned his first win in nearly two years, helping Philadelphia snap a six-game home losing streak with a 7-2 victory over the New York Mets.
-Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies, scattered four hits over eight innings as Colorado beat Arizona 5-0.
-Aubrey Huff, Orioles, hit a three-run homer and Baltimore beat the Angels 6-4.
-Placido Polanco, Tigers, hit a pair of extra-inning RBI singles, the second giving Detroit the lead for good in an 11-9 victory over Minnesota in 16 innings.
MANNY RETURNS
Returning from his 50-game suspension for violating baseball's drug policy, Manny Ramirez barely hit the ball out of the infield in the Los Angeles Dodgers' 6-3 win over the San Diego Padres on Friday night. He finished 0 for 3 with a walk.
THE SLAMMER
Albert Pujols hit his club-record fourth grand slam of the season and 10th of his career in St. Louis' 7-4 win over the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night. He snapped a tie with Hall of Famer Stan Musial for the Cardinals' career grand-slam record, and topped the single-season mark he shared with Jim Bottomley, Keith Hernandez and Fernando Tatis. The homer also was the 350th of Pujols' career, making him at 29 years, 168 days the third-youngest player in major league history to reach that mark. Only Alex Rodriguez (28 years, 282 days) and Ken Griffey Jr. (28 years, 308 days) were younger.
FIRST LOSS
Kansas City's Zack Greinke lost to the White Sox for the first time in three decisions this season - 5-0 Friday night - and hardly looked like the overpowering right-hander who began the year 6-0. Greinke gave up four runs and nine hits in six innings and his major league-leading ERA went from 1.95 to 2.00.
WALK THIS WAY
Jake Fox fouled off four pitches before working a two-out walk on a close 3-2 pitch from Mark DiFelice, sending the Chicago Cubs to a 2-1 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers in 10 innings Friday.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Tommy Hunter earned his first career victory on his 23rd birthday, leading Texas to a 3-1 win over Tampa Bay. Hunter was making his sixth career start and third this season. The right-hander allowed three hits and struck out five in 5 1-3 innings.
FIRST IMPRESSIONS
A few hours after his contract was purchased by Atlanta from Triple-A Gwinnett, Brooks Conrad smacked a pinch-hit, go-ahead three-run homer in the seventh inning and the Braves beat the Washington Nationals 9-8 on Friday night for their season-high fifth straight victory. ... Jarrett Hoffpauir drove in the go-ahead runs in the ninth inning with his first career hit - a two-run single - as the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Cincinnati Reds 7-4.
STUBBORN STREAK
San Francisco's Ryan Sadowski has 13 scoreless innings, including seven in a 13-0 win over Houston on Friday night, to start his career. It's the longest such streak by a Giants pitchers since Mike Remlinger's 15 shutout innings in 1991, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
UNEXPECTED POWER
Pittsburgh's Brandon Moss hit his second homer of the season and Ramon Vazquez, starting a second consecutive game for injured second baseman Freddy Gonzalez, belted his first homer since July 31, 2008, leading the Pirates to a 7-4 victory over the Florida Marlins on Friday night.
BACK IN BUSINESS
Philadelphia's Rodrigo Lopez (1-0) allowed two runs and six hits in 6 1-3 innings in a 7-2 victory over the New York Mets on Friday night to earn his first win since beating the Phillies on July 7, 2007, when he played for Colorado. The right-hander was sidelined since having elbow ligament replacement surgery 23 months ago.
THE GREAT OUTDOORS
Outdoor baseball is tentatively set to return to Minneapolis on April 12 when the Minnesota Twins play their 2010 home opener against the Boston Red Sox. The date was contained in a draft schedule for next season that recently was sent to teams and revealed Friday to The Associated Press. This is the 28th and final season for the Twins at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. Barring postseason play, the Twins play their final game there Oct. 4 against the Kansas City Royals.
STATS
Florida's Hanley Ramirez failed to drive in a run for the first time in 11 games, going 0 for 4 in the Marlins' 7-4 loss to Pittsburgh on Friday night. It was the longest consecutive-game RBI streak by an NL shortstop since the statistic began being officially kept in 1920. ... Arizona made three more errors in a 5-0 loss at Colorado, running their season total to a major league-leading 74. ... Tim Wakefield made his 383rd start for the Boston Red Sox, surpassing Roger Clemens for the top spot on the team's career list. ... The New York Yankees' Mark Teixeira has gone 68 at-bats without a home run since June 12.
SPEAKING
"I don't care if every one hits the top of the wall. I don't care if they do the Jose Canseco thing and hit the head and goes over the fence. It counts.'' - Pittsburgh's Brandon Moss, who hit his second homer of the season in the Pirates' 7-4 win at Florida on Friday night.
"This is the major leagues, you can't go out there and make three errors and expect to win a game. We looked like the Bad News Bears out there.'' - Arizona's Mark Reynolds, after the Diamondbacks increased their major league-leading errors total to 74 with three more in a 5-0 loss at Colorado on Friday night.