Saturday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals (13-3, 2.89 ERA)
Just like the Incredible Hulk, you won’t like Chris Carpenter when he’s angry, especially if you’re an opposing batter. The Cardinals ace has bolstered his case for the National League Cy Young in recent starts, leaving a path of destruction along the way.
First, he blasts his shortstop for picking up the wrong glove during his last start. Then, he trades verbal barbs with Reds manager Dusty Baker during the teams’ melee this Tuesday. In the middle of all this drama, Carpenter is 4-0 in his last six starts with a 1.79 ERA. He’s posted quality starts in all six of those outings.
Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics (12-4, 2.56 ERA)
The A’s righty has been invisible to batters in his last three starts. Cahill hasn’t allowed an earned run in 25 innings and is coming off an eight-inning effort in which he gave up two unearned runs on six hits for his third straight win. He’s pitched into at least the eighth inning in all three of those starts.
Slumping
Sean Sullivan, Kansas City Royals (1-3, 5.05 ERA)
No one would be thrilled to leave an AL contender for one of its basement teams, including Sullivan. The right hander has flopped since coming to Kansas City by way of the Los Angeles Angels, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in his first four starts for the Royals. Sullivan was beat up for six runs on 10 hits in his last trip to the bump, falling 6-4 to his former club Monday.
Returning
Mitch Talbot, Cleveland Indians (8-9, 4.09 ERA)
The Tribe’s rookie right hander comes off the 15-day disabled list after nursing a back injury. Talbot hasn’t won since late June and is just 0-1 with an ERA just south of 5.00 in his last three outings. In his most recent start, against the New York Yankees on July 29, Talbot gave up one earned run on one hit with four walks before being yanked in the second inning with a back strain.
Fox Saturday Baseball
By Judd Hall
I know that most everyone out there is in a tizzy to bet on preseason NFL contests, but there is plenty of good times to be had in baseball. Fox is sporting a troika of action on the diamond this Saturday. San Francisco plays host to the Padres in a huge National League West showdown. The Cubbies hit the bricks to face the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Plus, the Rays play host to a suddenly spry Baltimore side.
Orioles (40-75, -1,752) at Rays (69-45, +472) – 4:10 p.m. EDT, Fox
You need just about anything to keep your spirits up when you’re a fan of the Orioles. So when you get Buck Showalter to come out of the cozy confines of Bristol to run your Bad New Bears, fans tend to get excited. The infusion of new management has done Baltimore some good as they’ve gone 8-2 in his first 10 games. Before we crown Showalter as the second coming, we need to realize these series wins came against teams in pretty lousy funks (Angels, White Sox and Indians).
Brian Matusz (4-11, 5.08) will be entrusted to keep the good times going for the O’s on Saturday afternoon. Not a bad option to have considering that he’s allowed just one earned run in each of his last two starts, lasting six innings on both occasions. Even better news for Baltimore is that they are have come away triumphant in Matusz’s last three starts outside of Camden Yards.
Tampa Bay doesn’t appear to be in danger of missing out on October baseball at the moment. But you have to acknowledge that they’re in a slump at a lousy time. Losing two hard-luck games at home to the Twins and getting embarrassed in Toronto right after that. They did pick up a pair of wins at Detroit, but the Rays still find themselves two games behind the Yanks for the top spot in the American League East.
The Rays have had a few bumps and bruises on the starting rotation at the moment. That’s given Andy Sonnanstine (2-1, 3.98) a chance to show he can still be a serviceable starter. Sonnanstine pitched well enough to win his last opening appearance last Sunday at Rogers Center, giving up just one earned run in 5.1 innings of work. Too bad that Tampa Bay nearly got no-hit (this team loves getting smacked down in Sports Center highlights) in that 1-0 loss to the Blue Jays. The Rays’ hurler has gone 2-4 with a bulbous 6.80 earned run average in his 11 career appearances against Baltimore.
Tampa Bay has enjoyed moderate success against AL East opponents as a home “chalk,” going 10-7 this year, winning five of the last seven in this spot. When you’re looking for the Rays as favorites at Tropicana Field in day games against lefties, you’ll see they are 4-0 with the ‘under’ hitting each time. Baltimore, on the other hand, is 2-4 in six spots as a road pup against AL East foes in the afternoon the season. The ‘under’ is 3-2-1 in those games.
Padres (67-46, +2,496) at Giants (66-50, +1,035) – 4:10 p.m. EDT, Fox
Nobody gave San Diego a thought about being a force in the NL West this season, but here they are. And the Padres have shown they won’t be going away anytime soon. The Pads have won four straight games at the time of this writing. Too bad they didn’t give much money line value in those games (posted at $2.00 faves in three of those tilts). But they did cover the run line in each matchups.
The Pads must like their chances to capture Game 2 of this series with Mat Latos (12-5, 2.36) taking to the mound. All San Diego has done is win 9 of his last 10 starts this year. Latos is coming off of a six-inning, two-hit performance at Arizona last Sunday that led to a 10-1 win. Adding a little more confidence to the Padres for this game is that Latos is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three starts against San Fran.
San Francisco has to like its chances to keep in the NL West race and put some distance between itself and the Phils for the Wild Card. The Giants have won three of their last four tests at home against the Cubbies. Gamblers have been a little surprised by San Fran at the moment as the ‘over’ has hit in four of its last five fixtures.
Madison Bumgarner (4-4, 3.36) is getting the ball for this contest for the Giants. He gave up three earned runs in 5.2 innings of work to Chicago in a 4-3 win on Monday. Not the best outing he’s had, but not the worst. Bumgarner had lost his last two starts before taking on the Cubs. San Francisco hasn't fared well with the young southpaw at home, losing two of his three starts.
San Diego can feel good about this game as the road teams have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ has gone 6-1-1 in the eight matches between these divisional foes. The Pads are 5-1 in road day games against left-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, San Francisco has lost five of its last six home day games against the NL West this year. Bettors taking the ‘under’ were paid off handsomely as it cashed tickets in all two of those games.
Cubs (48-67, -3,040) at Cardinals (64-49, -230) – 4:10 p.m. EDT, Fox
The Cubs are continuing to close out Lou Piniella’s career with a whimper, having lost eight of their last 10 games this season. And they’ve been just as bad on the road with a 2-8 mark away from Wrigley Field recently.
Carlos Zambrano (3-6, 5.46) is back from him bullpen exile to rule the starting role he once held. Zambrano didn’t fare too bad in his last start, going five innings and giving up two earned runs in a 4-3 loss at San Francisco last Monday. He has enjoyed a fair amount of success against the Cardinals for his career with a 10-6 mark and 3.50 ERA. However, the Cubs are just 4-8 in Zambrano’s road starts this year.
St. Louis is still in a dogfight with the Reds for the top spot in the NL Central, but that’s better than being a basement dweller. Chris Carpenter (13-3, 2.89) is Tony LaRussa’s drink of choice on Saturday. Not a bad option considering he’s lasted into at least the seventh inning in his last six starts. And Carpenter is a solid 9-2 with an ERA of 2.75 in 14 starts at home.
While the odds are stacked in the Cardinals’ favor, gamblers should know that Chicago is 4-1 in its last five games as a road pup against NL Central foes. St. Louis has won five of its last seven as home favorites against divisional foes. The ‘over’ is 6-1 in those spots. Plus, the Cards are 11-7 as home faves in day games with the ‘under’ going 11-6-1.
vegasinsider.com
Tips and Trends
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
Padres (-120, O/U 7): San Diego not only leads the National League West division, but also the entire National League. San Diego is an impressive 67-46 SU this season, including 31-24 SU on the road. That specific road record is the 3rd best mark in baseball. The Padres are +24.96 and +17.31 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. The Padres have dominated the Giants this year, and they are plenty motivated for this series thanks to the words of Jonathan Sanchez. Ace pitcher Mat Latos will take the mound today, as he is 12-5 with an ERA of 2.36 and a WHIP of 0.99. The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass. The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter. San Diego is 11-3 in their last 14 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Padres are 7-0 in Latos' last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Padres are 6-1 in Latos' last 7 road starts overall. San Diego is 5-1 in Latos' last 6 starts during game 2 of a series. The Padres are 4-1 in Latos' last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. San Diego is 13-3 in Latos' last 16 starts overall.
Padres are 35-16 last 51 games during game 2 of a series.
Over is 13-6 last 19 road games.
Key Injuries - 2B David Eckstein (calf) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Giants: San Francisco gets their wish, the team they are chasing in the National League West division at home. San Francisco has struggled mightily with the Padres this year, losing 7 of the 8 meetings this season. The Giants are 66-50 SU this year, including 36-21 SU at home. The Giants are +10.35 and -6.41 units both SU and on the RL this season. Young left hander Madison Bumgarner will make the home start today, as he is 4-4 with an ERA of 3.36 and a WHIP of 1.31 this season. The Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 5-1 in their last 6 Saturday games. The Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 8-2 in their last 10 games during game 2 of a series. The Giants are 20-7 in their last 27 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Giants are 4-1 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. San Francisco is 5-2 in Bumgarner's last 7 starts overall.
Giants are 8-1 last 9 games against the National League West.
Under is 9-2-1 last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - SS Edgar Renteria (arm) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 2
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
Athletics: Oakland is remaining competitive in the American League, despite a SU record of only 57-56 SU. Oakland only trails the Rangers by 8 games in the American League West division standings. The Athletics are certainly a sleeper candidate over the final stretch of the regular season. Oakland is +2.11 and -8.58 units both SU and on the RL this year. The A's lost a 3 game series earlier this summer against the Twins, so revenge is clearly on their minds. Ace pitcher Trevor Cahill will make the tough road start tonight, as he is 12-4 with an ERA of 2.56 and a WHIP of 0.87 this season. The Athletics are 5-0 in their last 5 Saturday games overall. Oakland is 7-2 in their last 9 games during game 2 of a series. The Athletics are 9-4 in their last 13 games against the American League Central. The Athletics are 16-43 in their last 59 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Oakland is 7-0 in Cahill's last 7 road starts. The Athletics are 4-0 in Cahill's last 4 road starts against a team with a winning record. Oakland is 7-1 in Cahill's last 8 starts with 5 days of rest. The Athletics are 20-7 in Cahill's last 27 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Athletics are 3-9 last 12 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Under is 6-2 last 8 road games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - 3B Adam Rosales (ankle) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Twins (-125, O/U 8): Minnesota is back on their perch atop the American League Central division standings with a record of 65-50 SU. The Twins have been winning with their offense of late, scoring at least 5 runs in 6 of their past 7 games. The Twins are +6.36 and -4.26 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Minnesota has been very solid at home this year, going 33-20 SU. Inexperienced pitcher Brian Duensing will make the home start tonight, as he is 5-1 with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.11 this year. The Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. Minnesota is 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games overall. The Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a right-handed starter. Minnesota is 19-7 in their last 26 games overall. The Twins are 4-1 in Duensing's last 5 home starts. The Twins are 0-4 in Duensing's last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
Twins are 5-1 last 6 games against the American League West.
Over is 5-1 last 6 home games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - SS J.J. Hardy (wrist) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (UNDER - Total of the Day)