Saturday's Fox Tip Sheet
By Chris David
Saturday’s televised action on Fox continues this weekend with another trio of games, including a very important National League East battle between the Braves and Phillies. Philadelphia is fresh off a three-game sweep over the Cubs in Wrigley Field and remains in first place of the division. However, the club is only up by 4 1/2 games over the Marlins and five on Atlanta, who enters this weekend with a five-game winning streak. Let’s take a closer look at this tilt, plus the other National League battle between the Giants and Mets as well.
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Gamblers have to be scratching their heads right now with the Phillies. The team has been so unpredictable this year, often stepping up when you think they’re down. After losing three straight at home to the Marlins, the team rebounds with the aforementioned sweep over Chicago. Philly scored 22 runs in the victories over the Cubs, but just nine in the setbacks to the Fish. The Braves have had the Phillies’ number this year, winning seven of the first nine, including a home sweep just before the All-Star break.
On Saturday, Cole Hamels (7-7, 4.77 ERA) hopes he can get some of the support since he hasn’t been on top of his game lately. Philadelphia has dropped two straight with Hamels, who has been tagged for 15 hits and 10 earned runs in the two losses. The lefty does own a 7-4 career mark against the Braves but in his one start this season against them, he was lit up for nine hits and seven earned runs in just four innings. Total players would expect Hamels to be an ‘under’ pitcher but it’s been the opposite. The ‘over’ is on a 7-1 in his last eight efforts. Lastly, the day games have been bad news this year for Hamels, who is 0-4 with a 5.45 ERA in six outings. If you’re looking for another reason to fade Cole, then look at the Braves’ record (24-16) against lefties.
The Braves look to stay hot behind the right-handed Kenshin Kawakami (5-9, 4.12 ERA). Even though the club is just 1-4 in the last five, his most recent start opened up some eyes. Kawakami threw seven scoreless innings and gave up just four hits on Aug. 8 as Atlanta nipped the Dodgers 2-1. Kawakami faced the Phils on May 10 and he helped the Braves earn a 4-2 victory by giving up two hits and two runs over five innings. The Japanese product might not have the most glaring stats but he hasn’t been helped at all. Atlanta has gone 9-12 in his 21 starts and the offense has produced four runs or less in all 12 losses. In the nine wins, the team his notched four runs or more on seven occasions. Gamblers leaning to KK today might want to look at a team total ‘over’ instead.
All the numbers in the pitching matchup appear to lean towards Kawakami, but the oddsmakers have still made the Phillies a short favorite. It seems very fair considering the Phillies own a league-best 35-19 record on the road which has returned a profit of over 18 units.
San Francisco at N.Y. Mets
The Giants begin their 11-game road trip in Flushing against the banged-up Mets. San Francisco is nine games better than New York in the win column but that hasn’t matter this year. New York captured three of the first four in the Bay Area and has owned the Giants on its home turf. San Francisco has lost four in a row in Queens and 13 of 17 while visiting the Mets. If the team from Northern California wants to remain in the NL Wild Card hunt, then it better win this series. That’s a lot easier said than done for the Giants and its fair to say that Saturday’s matchup will be their toughest test.
New York will throw Johan Santana (13-8, 3.00 ERA) to the mound. The lefty is coming off an impressive 5-1 victory over the Padres last Sunday, which saw him go eight innings. Santana hasn’t received much offensive support in the past but the Mets’ attack has posted four-plus runs in each of his last six starts. The former Cy Young winner is 8-2 with a 2.07 ERA at home this season, plus he’s 2-0 in his career against the Giants. Santana has produced a 7-4 record with a 2.48 ERA under the sun this season. San Francisco is 17-13 versus lefties this year.
San Francisco will try to counter the Mets’ dominance at home by Santana with its own road warrior Matt Cain (12-4, 2.44 ERA). The big right-hander gave up a season-high five runs in last Sunday’s 5-2 defeat to the Reds, which was the second straight setback. Despite the losses, he still boasts a 2.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. It should also be noted that in his four losses, the Giants’ offense has managed a total of nine runs. The afternoon affair should help Cain, who has gone 4-2 with a 2.17 ERA in day games this year. He’s faced the Mets once this year and gave up no runs and three hits over six innings.
CD’s Bonus Hits:
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The White Sox own a league-best 14-4 record on Saturday, followed by the Rays (12-6) and Red Sox (12-6). Looking for a couple clubs that haven’t played well on this day? Take a quick peek at the Reds (4-14) and Indians (5-13).
‘Chalk’ players looking for automatic winners might turn their attention to Detroit (-250) against Kansas City and St. Louis (-230) over San Diego tonight. The Cards have beaten the Padres six out of seven, and the Tigers own a 6-3 mark against the Royals. If you toss the pair into a two-team parlay, you’ll get an even-money return.
It’s really amazes me looking at the Totals Report this year and seeing Texas as a clear-cut ‘under’ team, considering the ball used to fly out of Arlington. The Rangers have watched the ‘under’ go 71-38 on the season, including 37-18 at home.
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Saturday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Johan Santana, New York Mets
When he’s on his game, Santana is still one of the most formidable hurlers in the game. Lately, the Mets have seen the best of him.
Santana (13-8, 3.00 ERA) is 4-1 with one no-decision in his past six starts, with two shaky outings sandwiched in between four trademark, shutdown performances.
He has given up one or fewer earned runs in the four wins and lasted at least seven innings in those victories.
Doug Davis, Arizona Diamondbacks
Davis (7-10, 3.49 ERA) has been prone to the occasional crooked number, which has hurt his overall record. But lately he has found his groove and become a model of consistency for the Diamondbacks.
The 33-year-old lefty is 3-0 with one no-decision in his past four starts. He has given two earned runs in each of his past three starts, which includes wins over the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates.
Slumping
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
Cueto has come to exemplify the struggles of the Reds’ starting pitching, as he is 0-5 with two no-decisions in past seven starts.
The 23-year-old Cueto (8-9, 4.23 ERA) has been inconsistent, giving up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. He also has failed to make it past the sixth inning in each of his past six outings.
Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
Cain might still be a candidate for the NL Cy Young Award, but the 24-year-old righty has had some recent struggles.
Cain (12-4, 2.44 ERA) is 0-2 with a no-decision in his past three starts. His losses include ugly outings against the Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds in which he gave up nine earned runs in two starts.
He struggled with location in these losses and was tagged for a total of four home runs in the two-start span.
Boston (66-49) at Texas (64-50)
After a huge ninth-inning on Friday, the Red Sox send veteran right-hander Brad Penny (7-6, 5.16 ERA) to the hill at the Ballpark at Arlington looking for a second straight victory over the Rangers, who send lefty Derek Holland (5-7, 5.04) to the mound.
Boston scored six runs in the ninth inning, rallying for an 8-4 victory on Friday night and breaking a four-game losing streak to the Rangers, including three straight in Texas. The Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 Saturday contests, but otherwise they are still on slides of 1-6 on the road, 4-10 against teams with winning records, 4-7 overall and 2-10 on the road against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, the Rangers remain on runs of 9-3 at home, 11-4 against winning teams, 9-2 as a favorite, 7-0 as a home chalk and 7-1 against the A.L. East.
Penny has not been sharp lately, going 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in his last three games. On Monday at home, Penny allowed three runs in six innings, but his offense did the job in a 6-5 win over the Tigers. The Red Sox are just 2-6 in his last eight overall and 0-4 in his last four versus A.L. West competition.
Boston has lost Penny’s last three road starts (1-4 in his last five). His last roadie was Aug. 5 when the Rays got to him for five runs on six hits in six innings and beat the Sox 6-4. Also, Penny suffered a 5-1 to Texas in June, allowing all five runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings.
Holland is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA in his last three starts. He threw a complete-game, three-hit shutout at the Angels on Sunday, winning 7-0. He was stellar in his last home outing as well, allowing one run on two hits in 8 2/3 innings of a 7-1 win over the Mariners, striking out 10 and walking just one.
Holland faced the Red Sox on June 6 at Fenway Park and gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings of an 8-1 loss. Texas has won four straight when he faces winning teams, but it is just 1-4 when he pitches on Saturday.
Boston is riding “under” streaks of 11-5 on the road, 8-3 against southpaws, 11-3 as a road ‘dog, 6-1-1 on Saturdays and 7-3 on the road against winning teams. It’s all been “unders” for the Rangers lately, including 43-16-2 overall, 37-15-2 at home, 36-15-2 against right-handed starters, 22-4-1 as a home favorite, 4-0-1 when Holland starts and 4-1 in Holland’s last five home outings.
Finally, seven of the last eight Red Sox-Rangers clashes, including four of the last five in Texas, have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and UNDER
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Saturday, Aug. 15
Boston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EDT). Two top contenders for the AL wild card meet in Arlington, when the Red Sox send Jon Lester (9-7, 3.67 ERA) to the hill against the Rangers and Kevin Millwood (9-7, 3.38).
STARS
Friday
-Felix Pie, Orioles, became the fourth player in Orioles history to hit for the cycle, and Baltimore tied club records for extra-base hits and doubles in a 16-6 rout of the Angels.
-Derrek Lee, Cubs, matched a career high with seven RBIs as Chicago snapped its five-game losing streak with a 17-2 rout of the Pirates.
-Brandon Inge, Tigers, hit a home run with one out in the bottom of the ninth inning to give Detroit a 1-0 victory over the Royals.
-Ryan Howard, Phillies, led off the ninth inning with a homer and Philadelphia won its fourth straight game, beating the Braves 3-2.
-Scott Baker and Jason Kubel, Twins. Baker pitched a two-hitter and Kubel homered and had five RBIs as Minnesota beat the Indians 11-0.
-Alexei Ramirez, White Sox, led off the 10th inning with a home run and Chicago overcame blowing a six-run lead with an 8-7 victory over Oakland.
-Ryan Braun, Brewers, homered in each of the first two innings, lifting Milwaukee to an 11-2 victory over the Astros.
-Josh Johnson, Marlins, allowed one hit and had a career-high 11 strikeouts in 7 1-3 innings, and Florida tightened the NL wild-card race by beating the Rockies 6-5.
-Victor Martinez, Red Sox, hit a two-out, two-run double to key a six-run ninth inning that lifted Boston to an 8-4 victory over the Rangers.
-Adam Wainwright, Cardinals, joined Boston's Josh Beckett as the only 14-game winners in the majors and contributed his fifth career homer to a 15-hit attack in St. Louis' 9-2 victory over the Padres.
CYCLING
Felix Pie became the fourth player in Orioles history to hit for the cycle - in a 16-6 win over the Angels. It was the seventh cycle in the majors this season and the second this week. Troy Tulowitzki of Colorado did it Monday night against the Chicago Cubs. Pie joins Brooks Robinson (1960), Cal Ripken Jr. (1984) and Aubrey Huff (2007) as the only Orioles to hit for the cycle.
A-BACK ACHE
Alex Rodriguez was scratched from the Yankees' lineup because of a new ailment: back spasms. Manager Joe Girardi had Rodriguez in the lineup for the second game of New York's series against the Mariners, after he missed Thursday's victory resting a bruised elbow. Soon after Rodriguez entered the clubhouse about 2 1/2 hours before the first pitch, he declared he was still sore, and in his back, too, and was replaced.
RECORD RUN
The Cubs led 14-0 after two innings and went on to win 17-2 over Pittsburgh. The last time they scored so many runs so quickly was June 7, 1906 - 10 years before they moved into Wrigley Field.
DON'T STOP AT FIRST
Baltimore finished its 16-6 win over the Angels with 12 extra-base hits, tying the mark set last year against Detroit. The Orioles' nine doubles matched the club record set on July 30, 1996, against Minnesota.
FIRST CONTRACT
The Arizona Diamondbacks have signed first-round draft pick Bobby Borchering to a minor league contract that includes a $1.8 million signing bonus. The third baseman from Fort Myers, Fla., was the 16th pick overall. Borchering was only the 13th of 32 first-round picks to sign so far with a Monday deadline for reaching a deal.
THE MARLINS GO TO 11
The Marlins had 10 hits in a 6-5 win over Colorado, extending their streak of consecutive games with at least 10 to a club-record 11 games. The last team with a streak that long was Boston in May 2008.
DEAL 'EM
The Reds traded SS Alex Gonzalez and cash to Boston for minor league SS Kris Negron. The Red Sox made the trade a week after putting shortstop Jed Lowrie on the 15-day disabled list with an irritated left forearm. Last month, they traded shortstop Julio Lugo to St. Louis.
THAT'S THE WAY, ROY
Roy Halladay gave up two runs over eight innings for his 13th win, 5-2 over Tampa Bay, but just his first in four tries against the Rays this season. Halladay was 0-2 in three starts against Tampa Bay coming in.
SPEAKING
"It was my best game, because my defense - every stinking one of them - was with me. Then the bullpen - every dude - came in and did an unbelievable job.'' - Washington's Garrett Mock after beating Cincinnati 2-0. Mock allowed six hits over seven innings for his second win.
Giants try to knock off Johan
By AllStar.com
San Francisco Giants (62-53) At New York Mets (54-61)
Date: Saturday August 15th
Time: 04:10 PM ET
TV: FOX
Line: Mets -125 / Giants +115
Total: 7 Over -120 / Under +100
Giants Road Record: 23-33
Mets Home Record: 31-25
Giants Last 10: 4-6
Mets Last 10: 4-6
Pitchers:
Matt Cain (SF) 12-4 / 2.44 ERA / 124 K’s / 1.17 WHIP
Johan Santana (NYM) 13-8 / 3.00 ERA / 138 K’s / 1.20 WHIP
The Giants catch a major break this weekend and get to face the Mets. The Mets are tired; injured, cranky and just relentlessly dreadful - all things considered, the most disappointing team in the Bigs.
San Francisco, which starts an 11-game road swing, has lost four in a row and 13 of 17 visiting the Mets.
San Francisco (62-52) batted .250 during a 2-4 home stand that ended with Wednesday's 4-2, 10-inning victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Giants left 12 runners on base before Juan Uribe hit a walk-off two-run shot to snap their three-game slide.
New York (53-61) returns to Citi Field for 11 games following a 2-5 trip. David Wright and Fernando Tatis had three hits apiece in a 6-4 victory over Arizona on Wednesday.
New York's offense has been hot lately; batting .328 with 22 runs over the last three games. The Mets are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers as the best hitting team in baseball at .291.
Wright was 10 for 15 with two doubles and nine RBIs as the Mets won three of four in San Francisco in May.
Gary Sheffield batted .438 and scored seven runs in that series. He went 2 for 3 on Wednesday after missing six games with a strained right hamstring.
1B Ryan Garko, acquired from Cleveland in a trade before the July 31 deadline, is hitting .225 with three RBI in 13 games as a Giant, and has supplanted Travis Ishikawa as the primary first baseman.
Third baseman Pablo Sandoval is batting .329 with 17 homers and 68 RBIs, he has emerged as the Giants big bat in the lineup.
Freddy Sanchez has been productive, when he plays. Sanchez is hitting .333 with a homer and four RBI in nine games since being acquired for pitching prospect.
Randy Winn is hitting .157 (8-for-51) since July 28 and was not in the starting lineup for the series finale against the Dodgers.
Closer Brian Wilson has 28 saves, second in the league, behind leader Heath Bell’s 29.
Santana won his only start against the Giants last season, allowing three hits with five strikeouts in five innings of a 5-0 victory.
Santana went eight innings for the second straight outing, giving up five hits and a run in picking up his 13th win Sunday. This was the first time Santana went that length in back-to-back starts since his final two outings of last season. Santana provides the best chance of the Met’s winning every fifth day.
Cain fell to 12-4 on the year Sunday when he allowed five runs over seven innings in a loss to the Reds. Cain gave up seven hits, walked two and struck out seven. The five runs allowed matched a season-high, but he still sports a stellar 2.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the season.
Cain vs. Mets (lifetime, 3-3, 4.38):
Omir Santos 1.000, 1 AB
David Wright .471, 3 RBI, 17 AB
Brian Schneider .375, 8 AB
Alex Cora .250, 4 AB
Cory Sullivan .231, 1 RBI, 13 AB
Anderson Hernandez .200, 5 AB
Jeff Francoeur .000, 10 AB
Luis Castillo .000, 4 AB
Fernando Tatis .000, 4 AB
Gary Sheffield .000, 3 AB
Daniel Murphy .000, 2 AB
Angel Pagan .000, 2 AB
Jeremy Reed .000, 2 AB
Santana vs. Giants (lifetime, 2-0, 3.10):
Pablo Sandoval .500, 1 RBI, 4 AB
Bengie Molina .414, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 29 AB
Travis Ishikawa .333, 3 AB
Aaron Rowand .317, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 41 AB
Freddy Sanchez .308, 13 AB
Ryan Garko .304, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 23 AB
Randy Winn .235, 1 RBI, 17 AB
Edgar Renteria .167, 1 RBI, 6 AB
Juan Uribe .143, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 56 AB
Fred Lewis .143, 7 AB
Betting Trends:
Giants are 9-2 when Matt Cain pitches against a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 5-0 in Matt Cain’s last 5 road starts
The Mets are 14-5 in Johan Santana’s last 19 home starts
The Giants are 10-26 in their last 36 games at New York