Saturday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Aaron Laffey, Cleveland Indians (7-3, 3.61 ERA)
Here’s a guy oddsmakers haven’t caught on to yet. The 24-year-old lefty has won four of his last five starts and the highest odds he saw during that stretch was -114.
Laffey was recalled from Columbus Triple-A in April and has been competing with a group of other prospects to stay in the bigs for the remainder of this season and next. His ERA is just 1.35 over his past three starts and he has shown a knack for getting himself out of jams.
Laffey doesn’t punch out a ton of batters but he also doesn’t give up many long balls. He has only given up three home runs in 17 appearances this season.
Tommy Hunter, Texas Rangers (6-2, 2.64)
For Hunter’s first six games, in what is really his rookie season, he was God’s gift to under bettors. The under went 6-0 and oddsmakers were slow to bump him down from lofty totals like 11 and 10.5.
That’s changed now. But the good news is that he’s winning. The Rangers have won seven of Hunter’s 10 starts. He’s especially impressive on the road, where he is 2-0 and carries a 0.87 ERA.
Hunter visits the Tampa Bay Rays Saturday.
Slumping
Tim Redding, New York Mets (1-4, 6.53 ERA)
The Mets are stinking it up so bad right right now, they’re turning to an arm they relegated to the bullpen even though he’s given some of his worst relief efforts lately.
Redding gave up three runs in each of his last two outings despite only pitching a total of four innings. But the move is necessary after the Mets dumped Livan Hernandez Thursday, in part to make room for returning closer Billy Wagner. They also have three starting pitchers on the DL, so they’re forced to go with the journeyman for at least one start.
Redding faces a red-hot J.A. Happ and the Phillies Saturday.
MLB Weekend Cheat Sheet
By Marc Lawrence
The hot summers days of August find the MLB pennant races warming up as well. The Boston Red Sox should have fire in their eyes at Fenway Park when they look to avenge a 4-game series sweep from suffered two weeks in the Big Apple.
Along with that series, let’s take a look into the top four series on tap on the basepaths this weekend. Remember, all results are within the series and all pitcher records are ‘team starts’ (the team’s record in games in which the pitcher starts) versus this opponent.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Most Recent Series Result: Marlins 6-3 last 9 games (5-3 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Marlins 3-0 away (3-0 this season)
Key Day/Month Stat: Marlins 4-0 Fridays; Braves 1-4 home Fridays
Best Arm in the Series: Braves’ Jurrjens 2-0 11.00 ERA home career team starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Braves’ Vazquez 0-4 5.62 ERA last 4 home team starts
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
Most Recent Series Result: Dodgers 7-3 last 10 games (2-2 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Dodgers 9-5 home
Key Day/Month Stat: Cubs 6-0 Saturdays; Dodgers 2-6 Saturdays
Best Arm in the Series: Cubs’ Dempster 6-1 3.03 ERA career team starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Dodgers’ Billingsley 1-3 3.33 ERA career team starts
AMERICAN LEAGUE
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Most Recent Series Result: Yankees 4-0 last 4 games (4-7 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Red Sox 7-0 last 7 home (6-0 this season)
Key Day/Month Stat: Yankees 16-4 Fridays; Red Sox 2-4 home Fridays
Best Arm in the Series: Red Sox’ Penny 4-0 2.28 ERA career team starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Yankees’ Sabathia 2-8 4.74 ERA last 10 team starts
Texas rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Most Recent Series Result: Rays 3-0 last 3 games (3-0 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Rays 12-4 last 16 home
Key Day/Month Stat: Rays 13-2 Saturdays; Rangers 2-9 Saturdays
Best Arm in the Series: Kazmir 4-0 1.89 home career teams starts; Garza 2-0 1.89 ERA home career team starts
Worst Arm in the Series: None
MLB Weekend Top 10
By Bodog.com
Striking out 10 batters in a game is pretty special. But Justin Verlander isn’t getting a lot of attention after fanning 10 Seattle Mariners on Wednesday. That’s because his Detroit Tigers lost 3-1, and also because new Philadelphia Phillies ace Cliff Lee struck out 11 batters in a complete-game 8-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s four wins in four NL starts for Lee – and four units of profit.
If Lee keeps this up, he might sneak into our Top 10 list of money pitchers. In which case we’ll just ignore the deficit of 9.69 units Lee racked up starting for the Cleveland Indians. All stats for this week’s preview are at press time; check Bodog Sports for the latest odds.
Top 10 paying teams
1. Los Angeles Angels (73-45, 27.34 units)
2. Texas Rangers (67-52, 17.47 units)
3. Colorado Rockies (67-53, 12.16 units)
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (71-50, 11.71 units)
5. San Francisco Giants (66-54, 11.20 units)
6. Philadelphia Phillies (68-49, 9.45 units)
7. Florida Marlins (64-56, 8.96 units)
8. Seattle Mariners (62-58, 7.69 units)
9. New York Yankees (76-45, 7.10 units)
10. St. Louis Cardinals (69-53, 7.00 units)
Top 10 paying pitchers
1. Matt Palmer, L.A. Angels (10-2 team record, 11.64 units)
2. Josh Johnson, Florida (18-6, 11.22 units)
3. Josh Beckett, Boston (18-6, 9.72 units)
4. Jered Weaver, L.A. Angels (18-7, 9.45 units)
5. Tim Wakefield, Boston (13-4, 9.22 units)
6. Jason Marquis, Colorado (16-8, 9.10 units)
7. Felix Hernandez, Seattle (18-7, 8.84 units)
8. Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay (15-7, 8.72 units)
9. Matt Cain, San Francisco (17-7, 8.62 units)
10. Scott Feldman, Texas (15-7, 8.13 units)
This weekend's top 10 storylines
1. John Smoltz joins Cardinals, will start Sunday
2. Dodgers place P Hiroki Kuroda (concussion) on 15-day DL, sign P Vicente Padilla
3. Catcher Ivan Rodriguez returns to Rangers in trade with Houston
4. Mariners acquire utility man Bill Hall from Brewers
5. Astros starter Mike Hampton (rotator cuff) out until September
6. Mets put SS Alex Cora (torn thumb ligaments) on 15-day DL
7. Indians recall OF Matt LaPorta from AAA-Columbus
8. Mets reliever Billy Wagner placed on waivers; due to come off DL by Friday
9. Reds 1B Joey Votto (blurred vision) leaves Wednesday’s game; to be re-evaluated Thursday
10. Braves IF Martin Prado (headaches) expected to rejoin team Friday
This weekend's top 10 games to bet on
1. Sunday: N.Y. Yankees at Boston (8:05 p.m. Eastern, ESPN)
The best rivalry in baseball is on Sunday Night Baseball with CC Sabathia (15-11 team record, -5.20 units) facing our No. 3 moneyman, Josh Beckett.
2. Saturday: Chicago Cubs at L.A. Dodgers (4:10 p.m., FOX)
The Dodgers are giving another start to knuckleballer Charlie Haeger, who gave up three runs to St. Louis on Monday in seven strong innings and still lost 3-2.
3. Sunday: Texas at Tampa Bay (1:38 p.m., TBS)
The Rangers are 21-6 in their last 27 games against a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30. David Price (1.58 WHIP) starts for the Rays.
4. Friday: Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets (7:10 p.m.)
The Phillies have won five straight games against the Mets. The under cashed in the last four games.
5. Saturday: San Francisco at Colorado (8:10 p.m., MLBN)
Rookie Joe Martinez (4.76 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) makes his fourth start for the Giants since joining the rotation earlier this month. He has yet to go past five innings, but San Fran is 2-1 behind Martinez.
6. Friday: Florida at Atlanta (7:30 p.m.)
The under is 6-0-1 in the last seven home starts for Javier Vazquez (2.99 ERA, 1.04 WHIP). Anibal Sanchez (5.55 ERA, 1.77 WHIP) has been moved to this game instead of Saturday’s.
7. Sunday: St. Louis at San Diego (4:05 p.m.)
This is John Smoltz’ first start for the Cards. The Red Sox released him after going 2-6 in his eight starts and dropping 5.98 units along the way.
8. Saturday: Minnesota at Kansas City (7:10 p.m.)
The Twins send rookie southpaw Brian Duensing (5.09 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) to the mound for just his second career start. He gave up two solo homers to the White Sox in last month’s debut but still won 3-2.
9. Friday: L.A. Angels at Toronto (7:07 p.m.)
The Angels have won seven of their last 10 meetings with Toronto, and Jays rookie Marc Rzepczynski (3.98 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) is 4.31 units in the hole on a team record of 2-6. The under is 6-1-1 in his eight starts.
10. Saturday: Seattle at Cleveland (7:05 p.m.)
Rookie northpaw Doug Fister has allowed three earned runs in 14 innings since making his Mariners debut earlier this month. Seattle is 1-1 in his two starts.
What bettors need to know: Yankees at Red Sox
By David Chan
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Season series
If you're looking at the entire season, the Red Sox have dominated the Yankees, winning eight of 12 matchups.
However, both teams are singing a much different tune after the Yankees swept the Red Sox in a four-game series in the Bronx two weeks ago.
Betting the home side has been a highly profitable endeavor, as the host has taken 10 out of 12 meetings.
The Red Sox did manage to sweep a short two-game series in New York back in early May.
Streaks and stats
The Yankees improved to 5-2 on their current road trip with a win in Oakland Wednesday. They enter this series riding an incredible 14-3 run.
New York has also won eight of its last 10 games on the road to move eight games over .500 as the visitor this season.
The Red Sox have played much better baseball since taking a beating at the hands of the Yankees. Since that four-game sweep they have won six of nine games (pending Thursday's result).
Fenway Park hasn't been quite as kind to the Sox lately. They've won only five of their last nine games in the shadow of the Green Monster.
Pitching matchups
Saturday
A.J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69 ERA) vs. Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40 ERA)
A.J. Burnett was a hard-luck loser in his last start in Oakland, falling 3-0 despite tossing eight quality innings.
The Yankees right-hander has been terrific in his career against the Red Sox 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts. On August 7, he gave up only one hit over 7 2-3 innings against the Sox.
You'll remember that Junichi Tazawa got his first taste of big league ball in that 15-inning marathon against the Yankees. He gave up the game-winning two-run shot to Alex Rodriguez.
Since then, Tazawa has settled down, splitting a pair of decisions against the Tigers and Rangers. He has been hit hard, however, giving up 18 hits in 11 2-3 innings pitched.
Sunday
C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58 ERA) vs. Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.38 ERA)
The series finale is a dream matchup for ESPN when both teams' aces go head-to-head.
Sabathia has reeled off four consecutive victories, lasting eight innings in each of his last two starts. He has struck out 26 batters while giving up only 10 hits in his last 23 2-3 innings pitched.
Sabathia is just 3-5 with a 3.57 ERA in nine career starts against Boston.
Like Sabathia, Josh Beckett will also be going for his 15th win of the season Sunday.
Beckett was hit hard against the Blue Jays in his last start, giving up nine hits and seven earned runs over 5 1-3 innings. Prior to that, he had lasted at least seven innings in six consecutive starts.
The Red Sox are 15-4 in Beckett's last 19 starts and are 3-1 in his four starts against the Yankees this season.
Injury report
The Yankees have two key recent injuries worth mentioning. Brett Gardner remains on the DL while Hideki Matsui had fluid drained from his knee last Sunday, but returned to the lineup Tuesday.
Recent Red Sox injuries of note include Rocco Baldelli (bruised ankle, 15-day DL), Jason Varitek (strained neck, day-to-day), and J.D. Drew (sore groin, returned Tuesday).
Odds and ends
The Yankees continue their 10-game road trip which has already taken them to Seattle and Oakland.
Boston makes the short trip from Toronto to open up a 10-game homestand.
The two teams own almost identical records in series openers this season. The Yankees check in at 23-16 while the Red Sox are 24-15.
New York is 20-8 in its last 28 Friday games.
N.Y. Yankees (77-45) at Boston (69-52)
The Yankees send veteran right-hander A.J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69 ERA) to the mound at Fenway Park looking for their sixth straight win over the rival Red Sox, who will counter with young righty Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40).
New York got a pair of three-run homers and seven RBI from Hideki Matsui in Friday night’s 20-11 laugher in Boston. It was the fifth straight win for the Yankees this month over their rivals, coming on the heels of an eight-game losing streak to the Red Sox to start the season series. Even with Friday’s victory, the Bronx Bombers are still just 1-7 in their last eight games at Fenway.
The Yankees continue to be the hottest team in baseball, currently on runs of 39-13 overall, 9-3 on the road, 24-7 against the A.L. East and 53-24 as a favorite. Meanwhile, the BoSox fell to 1-11 in their last 12 as an underdog last night, but they remain on streaks of 37-17 at home, 5-2 as a home ‘dog and 90-41 at home against right-handed starters.
Burnett has been mediocre since dominating the Red Sox on Aug. 7, allowing a combined six runs on 16 hits in 14 innings of work in his last two starts. Against these Sox two weeks ago, Burnett yielded just one hit over 7 2/3 scoreless innings of a 2-0 home victory. It was New York’s first win over Boston with Burnett on the hill this season (1-2). Behind Burnett, the Yankees are on runs of 8-2 overall, 5-0 versus the A.L. East, 10-2 when he’s a favorite and 10-3 when he gets a full four days of rest.
Tazawa is making just his third career start tonight, having faced the Tigers and Rangers over the last 11 days. He’s allowed a combined seven runs (five earned) on 14 hits in 10 innings of work and Boston has split the two contests.
New York is on a plethora of “under” runs with Barnett on the hill, 9-2 overall, 6-2-1 on the road, including 8-1 as a favorite, 7-1 against the A.L. East and 5-2 against teams with winning records. As a team, the Yankees have topped the total in 11 of 15 roadies against winning teams and five of six against right-handed starters.
Boston has gone over the total in eight of its last nine home games and five of six at home against right-handers, but as a team the Red Sox are on “under” streaks of 20-7-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 on Saturdays and 9-3-1 in the second game of a series.
Finally, this series has produced “unders” in six of the last nine in Boston and five of the last eight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Saturday, Aug. 22
St. Louis at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EDT). The Cardinals' Chris Carpenter goes for win No. 14. The Padres send Kevin Correia (8-9) to the mound.
STARS
Friday
-Hideki Matsui, Yankees, homered twice and had a career-high seven RBIs, and New York had 23 hits in a 20-11 victory over Boston.
-Brian Roberts, Orioles, hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth inning and had a solo shot in the third to lead Baltimore to a 5-1 win over the Chicago White Sox.
-Jeff Francoeur, Mets, homered among his three hits to help New York to a 4-2 victory over Philadelphia.
-Roy Oswalt, Astros, allowed three hits in seven innings and Houston handed Arizona its sixth straight loss with a 1-0 win.
-Ryan Raburn, Tigers, homered in his first two at-bats and Detroit beat Oakland 3-2.
-Scott Kazmir, Rays, took a shutout into the eighth inning and Tampa Bay beat Texas 5-3.
-Orlando Cabrera, Twins, hit a run-scoring triple in the 10th inning after a rare blown save by Joe Nathan in the ninth, helping Minnesota rally for a bizarre 5-4 victory over Kansas City.
-Nick Hundley, Padres, hit a three-run homer to back Clayton Richard and lead San Diego to a rare win over St. Louis, 4-0.
WELCOME BACK
Jerry Remy is working in the Boston Red Sox broadcast booth for the first time in more than three months. The color analyst on the team's telecasts returned Friday night for Boston's game against the Yankees. He took a leave of absence in early May after developing an infection and pneumonia following surgery for lung cancer late last year.
PUTTING ON A SHOW
Stephen Strasburg watched the fireworks explode over Nationals Park during his over-the-top welcome to the nation's capital. Four days after awarding him a record-breaking contract for a draft pick, the team set up a raised platform near third base for an on-field news conference attended by anyone willing to show up five hours early for the evening's game against the Milwaukee Brewers. A few hundred fans took the bait.
STATS
Jacoby Ellsbury swiped a base to tie the Red Sox record of 54 steals set by Tommy Harper in 1973. ... The Yankees broke a seven-game losing streak at Fenway Park. ... Hideki Matsui is batting .366 (15 for 41) with two homers and 10 RBIs against the Red Sox this season. ... Kansas City leads the majors with 70 wild pitches. ... The Padres pitched their third shutout of the season with a 4-0 win over St. Louis, moving them into a tie with Chicago and Washington for the fewest in the NL. ... The 20 runs were the most allowed by the Red Sox since the Yankees scored 22 on June 19, 2000 at Fenway Park. The combined 31 runs are the most scored in a game between the two franchises, surpassing the 29 in the New York Highlanders 15-14 win over the Boston Americans on July 29, 1903 in Boston.
SIDELINED STARTERS
Colorado right-hander Aaron Cook was removed from the game against San Francisco in the fourth inning with a sore right shoulder. Cook, who has been bothered by a sprained big toe on his right foot that may have been the culprit in a mechanical flaw he discovered in his delivery, left after walking Nate Schierholtz on four pitches to start the fourth. ... St. Louis Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse was forced out of Friday night's game at San Diego after straining his left groin running out a single in the fifth inning.
SADNESS
Justin Duchscherer's agent says the Oakland Athletics right-hander won't pitch this season so he can concentrate on his treatment for depression. Duchscherer has been out all year after undergoing right elbow surgery in March. He made the All-Star team as a reliever in 2005 and as a starter last season.
SPEAKING
"When we play the Royals, it's a mess. It always is a mess because neither team gives up, neither team quits and there's always strange things happening during the games. It was just another typical Twins and Royals game.'' - Twins manager Ron Gardenhire after Minnesota beat Kansas City 5-4 in a bizarre game.