Saturday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Clay Buchholz (15-5, 2.26 ERA) Boston Red Sox
We'd love to tell you Buchholz's ERA over his last three games, but the truth is he doesn't have one. That's right, it's 0.00 over his last 21 innings of work.
Buchholz has four straight wins and hasn't allowed an earned run since Aug. 6, thrusting himself prominently into the AL Cy Young Award conversation.
Perhaps most impressively, the Red Sox are 9-1 in his last 10 starts.
John Garland (13-8, 3.25 ERA) San Diego Padres
Garland has been hotter than Hades in the month of August, going 4-1 with an 0.98 ERA. Two of his last three outings were shutouts over six and seven innings.
The 6-foot-6 right-hander has been especially strong this season at home (7-2 with a 2.49 ERA), where he will face the Phillies today.
One word of caution: Garland is 0-4 lifetime with a 7.94 ERA against Philadelphia.
CC Sabathia (17-5, 3.02 ERA) New York Yankees
CC has won his last four starts, including a 10-0 shutout victory over the Seattle Mariners in six shutout innings, and he only left early because of a rain delay.
His previous starts have lasted 7, 8 and 8 2/3 frames - all for more than 100 pitches - so his durability seems to be a non-issue.
Sabathia has a 24/6 strikeout-to-walk ration during that span and he's 15-4 lifetime against the Chicago White Sox.
Slumping
Livan Hernandez (8-9, 3.36) Washington Nationals
Hernandez is showing all the signs of a tired pitcher. He is 0-2 and the Nationals are 0-4 in his last four starts, none of which have lasted more than seven innings.
The right-hander has thrown more walks (13) than strikeouts (11) during that span and has been working from behind in the count on numerous occasions.
In Monday's game against the light-hitting Cubs, Livan needed 121 pitches to get through 4 1/3 innings. The Cubs knocked him around for 10 hits and seven runs.
Barry Zito (8-9, 3.78) San Francisco Giants
Zito hasn't picked up a since July 16 and hasn't lasted seven innings since Aug. 6. Still, his recent outings qualify him as a slumper even by last month's standards.
The left-hander has worked just 16 innings over his last four appearances, allowing 28 hits and 14 runs during that stretch. In fairness, one was a relief appearance in which he let the Reds score the winning run.
Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Phillies at Padres**
Most betting shops have installed San Diego (76-50, +2996) as a minus-120 favorite with a total of eight ‘under’ (minus-120). Gamblers can take the Padres on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).
Philadelphia (70-57, -707) had a golden opportunity to gain ground on the first-place Braves this week. However, while Atlanta was getting swept at Colorado, the Phillies were taking broom treatment at home against Houston in a four-game set. They went into Friday’s action trailing the Braves by three games in the National League East.
San Diego has been the best story in baseball all year. For our purposes, the same can certainly be said. In fact, the Padres have produced way more profit than any other club. Going into Friday’s play, San Diego had brought home its backers nearly 30 units of profit, while the second-best money team (Cincinnati) had earned 12 less units.
Jon Garland (13-8, 3.25) will get the starting nod in this spot. The veteran right-hander owns a 7-2 record and 2.49 ERA in 13 home assignments this year. He has won three consecutive starts, going 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA in five starts in August. However, Garland has struggled mightily against Philadelphia with a 0-4 record and 7.94 ERA in five lifetime starts.
Charlie Manuel will give the ball to Joe Blanton, who is 5-6 with a 5.32 ERA in 2010. The righty has been awful in nine road starts, posting a 1-4 record and 6.55 ERA. For his career, Blanton is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA against the Padres.
Philadelphia’s regulars have enjoyed roaring success against Garland. For instance, Jayson Werth has a .429 batting average with a double and two homers in just seven at-bats versus the righty. Ryan Howard is 3-for-9 (.333) off Garland with a double and a homer. Most notably, Placido Palanco is hitting .390 off Garland in 41 career at-bats, while Raul Ibanez has a .333 average with five doubles, one triple and two homers in 66 lifetime ABs. Finally, Mike Sweeney has a .293 average off Garland with three doubles and five homers in 58 at-bats.
Before Friday’s games went final, San Diego had a commanding six-game advantage over second-place San Francisco in the NL West race.
San Diego has cashed tickets at a 38-23 clip in its home games, while the Phillies are 30-32 on the road.
The ‘under’ is 66-59-2 overall for the Phils. Meanwhile, the Padres have watched the ‘under’ go 60-58-8 overall. However, the ‘over’ is on a 5-1 run in San Diego’s last six games.
Fox will have the telecast at 4:10 p.m. Eastern.
**Red Sox at Rays**
Most books are listing Tampa Bay (78-49, +830) as a minus-125 ‘chalk’ with a total of 7 ½ ‘over’ (minus-120). Bettors can back the Rays on the run line for a generous plus-170 payout (paid $170 on $100 wagers).
Boston (73-55, +220) went into Friday’s play trailing the Rays and Yankees, who are the AL East’s co-leaders, by 5 ½ games. The Red Sox had won four in a row before dropping a 4-2 decision to Seattle on Wednesday night.
Matt Garza (13-7, 3.62) has been extremely sharp in the month of August, compiling a 2-2 record and 1.27 ERA with opposing batters hitting just .190 against him. For the season, Garza owns a 7-2 record and 3.42 ERA in 13 home appearances (12 starts). The right-hander has a 7-3 record and 3.62 lifetime ERA against the Red Sox.
Clay Buchholz (15-5, 2.26) has not allowed a run in 23 1/3 consecutive innings pitched. The 26-year-old righty has won five straight decisions. Buchholz is 8-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 11 road assignments this year.
Buchholz is 3-2 with a 1.93 career ERA against Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay has feasted on southpaws all year, going 30-13 in 43 games against left-handed starters.
Tampa Bay slugger Carl Crawford was a late scratch from the lineup in Friday’s series opener. His status for Saturday is “questionable” due to flu-like symptoms. Crawford is hitting .297 with 14 homers and 68 RBIs.
The ‘over’ is 63-57-8 overall for Boston, 30-27-5 in its road games.
The ‘under’ is 62-60-5 overall for the Rays, 34-27-2 in their home games at The Trop.
The first pitch from Garza is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Atlanta RHP Tim Hudson owns an 8-3 record and 3.02 ERA in 17 career starts against Florida.
San Francisco LHP Barry Zito is 3-6 with a 4.70 ERA in 12 lifetime starts against Arizona.
Joe Girardi will give C.C. Sabathia the starting nod Saturday against the White Sox in the Windy City. Sabathia has a 15-4 record and 3.72 ERA in 28 lifetime starts against Chicago.
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