Saturday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
It’s no secret that Lee has been more than the Phillies could have hoped for when they traded for him to bolster their rotation down the stretch. There’s also no way you can keep him off of this list.
Lee (12-9, 2.62 ERA overall), who has an American League Cy Young award to his credit, might make a strong case for earning the NL’s honor despite a limited body of work. But what he’s shown so far is a masterpiece.
The 31-year-old perennial All-Star is 5-0 with an ERA of 0.68 since joining the Phillies. In his last start, he gave up two runs – both unearned—against the New York Mets. The left-hander has given up just one run in each of his four other starts for Philadelphia.
He also has been a bettor’s friend. With the exception of his last start, in which bettors were charged -250 to fade the Mets, Lee has been available for less than $2 in each of his other starts. That’s a bargain when you consider the return on investment.
Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants
Lost amid the deserved attention that San Francisco’s young aces have garnered, is the fact that Zito has quietly made a nice comeback for the Giants.
Since he arrived in San Francisco, Zito (8-11, 4.09 ERA) was becoming known as the guy with a nine-figure contract and 90-cent curveball. But the 31-year-old lefty has turned things around, going 3-1 with two no-decisions in his past six starts.
His last two starts ended in no-decisions, but Zito gave up no earned runs in each of those outings. A sign of his improving consistency lies in the fact that the three earned runs he gave up to the New York Mets is his worst outing over his past six starts.
Slumping
Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
The 23-year-old right-hander has taken his share of lumps as the Milwaukee rotation has struggled. Gallardo is just 2-3 in his past five starts. But worse is the fact that he has put the Brewers’ bullpen in a tough spot by failing to give them quality innings.
Gallardo (12-10, 3.51 ERA) has made it past the sixth inning just once in his past five starts, during which he has yielded 16 walks. This included a five-inning outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers in which he was tagged for nine earned runs.
Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs
The hard-throwing right-hander appears to have revived his career as a starter in Chicago. Even so, Dempster has struggled at the worst possible time for a club desperately in need of a reliable ace.
Dempster (7-7, 4.07 ERA) is 2-2 with two no-decisions in his past six starts. This includes a two-loss stretch in which he gave up 10 total earned runs against the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.
Dempster has given up at least four earned runs in three of his past six starts, a testament to his struggles.
Atlanta (67-61) at Philadelphia (74-52)
The Phillies trot out nearly untouchable left-hander Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.68 ERA in N.L.; 12-9, 2.63 ERA overall) for the second game of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park against the division rival Braves, who will counter with right-hander Derek Lowe (12-8, 4.48).
Philadelphia pulled out a rain-delayed 4-2 victory in Friday’s series opener. The Phillies remain one of the hottest teams in baseball, having won 13 of their last 17, and they are on further streaks of 37-18 overall, 6-1 against winning teams and 20-7 at home.
The Braves are still on upticks of 5-2 on the highway and 4-2 in division play, and in this rivalry, Atlanta is on rolls of 6-3 overall and 6-3 in Philly. Additionally, the Braves are 8-5 in 13 clashes this season with the Phils.
Lee has been stellar since coming over from Cleveland before the trade deadline, winning all five starts with a suffocating ERA of 0.68, allowing no earned runs over 16 innings in his last two starts. On Monday, he went eight innings against the Mets, allowing two unearned runs on six hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 6-2 road win.
Lee is 5-6 with a 2.57 ERA in 13 total home starts this year, but in his two outings at Citizens Bank, he’s 2-0 with a stifling 0.56 ERA. Lee, who turns 31 tomorrow, won his lone career start against Atlanta five years ago, a 4-2 victory with Cleveland.
The Braves have alternated wins and losses in Lowe’s last five starts. On Sunday, he allowed five runs (three earned) on nine hits and a walk in five innings of a 7-5 home win over Florida, and that followed a 9-4 road loss to the Mets in which he gave up eight runs on 11 hits in just 3 2/3 innings. Lowe is 6-6 with a 5.11 ERA in 13 road outings this season, but he’s 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in 13 career appearances (nine starts) against Philadelphia.
Atlanta has won both Lowe’s starts against the Phils this season, including a 4-1 road win on Opening Night in which the 36-year-old threw eight shutout innings. The Braves are on runs of 7-2 in Lowe’s last nine starts overall and 6-1 with Lowe facing winning teams, but they are just 2-6 in his last eight outings on the highway.
The under for Philadelphia is on tears of 11-4 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 7-1 in N.L. East action, 18-5 against righty starters and 4-1 behind Lee, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five straight games. However, the over for the Braves is on road rolls of 7-3 overall and 5-2 against winning teams, and with Lowe hurling, the over is on upticks of 5-2 overall and 5-2 on the road against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
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Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Saturday, Aug. 29
Tampa Bay at Detroit (4:10 p.m. EDT). Tampa Bay's David Price (6-6, 4.93 ERA) is scheduled to face fellow left-hander Nate Robertson (1-0, 7.71) in the second of four games between the AL playoff contenders.
Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EDT). Cliff Lee is 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA in five starts with the Phillies. He takes the mound for the NL East leaders, who try to increase their cushion against Derek Lowe (12-8) and the Braves.
STARS
-Albert Pujols, Cardinals, hit his 41st homer leading off the bottom of the ninth inning in a 3-2 victory over Washington. It was the eighth game-ending homer of Pujols' career and first since July 2006.
-Robinson Cano, Yankees, hit a three-run homer with two outs in the 10th inning for a 5-2 win over the White Sox.
-Kendry Morales, Angels, went 5 for 5 with two homers and six RBIs, and Los Angeles rallied past the Oakland Athletics 11-7.
-Tim Lincecum, Giants, struck out eight in eight innings of four-hit ball, ending a four-start winless stretch with a 2-0 victory over Colorado that tightened the NL wild-card race.
-Ryan Howard, Phillies, went 3 for 3 with two homers and a double in a rainy 4-2 victory over Atlanta.
-Matt Wieters, Orioles, had three hits and a career-high four RBIs, and Baltimore cruised past the Indians 13-4.
-Alfonso Soriano, Cubs, made up for several miscues in the outfield with a tiebreaking, three-run homer in the eighth inning of a 5-2 win over the New York Mets.
BIG DEAL
Scott Kazmir was traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles, giving the AL West leaders a major boost to their unsteady rotation. The Angels acquired the two-time All-Star for two minor leaguers, left-hander Alex Torres and infielder Matt Sweeney, and a player to be named. Kazmir was 8-7 with a 5.92 ERA this season for the defending AL champion Rays.
GREAT START
John Hester hit a long homer in his first major league at-bat, helping Arizona beat Houston 14-7. Pinch-hitting in the sixth inning, the 25-year-old Hester hit a 2-2 delivery from Wilton Lopez, also making his first appearance in the majors, an estimated 420 feet off the batter's eye in center field. Hester became the 101st player to homer in his first big league at-bat - and the second Diamondbacks player this season. Gerardo Parra did it May 13 against Cincinnati.
WALKING TALL
The Twins acquired 6-foot-11 reliever Jon Rauch, the tallest player in baseball history, from Arizona to help their beleaguered bullpen. The 30-year-old Rauch went 2-2 with a 4.14 ERA in 58 games for the Diamondbacks. He walked 17 and struck out 35 in 54 1-3 innings. Minnesota agreed to send Arizona a player to be named.
JOBA'S NEW RULES
The Yankees have scrapped their plan for Joba Chamberlain once again, opting to give him a regular spot in the rotation for the remainder of the season and shorten his outings to hold down his innings. Chamberlain had been getting extended rest between some starts since the All-Star break. He is 1-2 with an 8.55 ERA in his last four starts.
GLAD TO BE BACK
Five months after open-heart surgery, third baseman Aaron Boone rejoined the Astros. Boone completed a minor league rehab assignment and will be activated when major league rosters expand Sept. 1. Boone's role with the Astros is unclear; he may see only occasional at-bats.
BEANED
Toronto shortstop Marco Scutaro was hit in the head with a pitch from Red Sox right-hander Josh Beckett in the fourth inning of Boston's 6-5 victory. The Blue Jays said Scutaro had no symptoms other than a bruise, but he would be monitored closely.
PLAYER TO BE NAMED
Cleveland acquired right-hander Yohan Pino from Minnesota, completing the trade that sent pitcher Carl Pavano to the Twins on Aug. 7. The 25-year-old, who has split this season between Double-A New Britain and Triple-A Rochester, is a combined 7-3 with a 3.03 ERA in 40 games.
BACK IN THE SWING
Khalil Greene's first career pinch-hit homer was a tying shot for St. Louis in the eighth inning of a 3-2 victory over Washington. Greene's sixth homer this season came in his first at-bat since Aug. 20. It was his first long ball since he connected in three straight games at Kansas City from June 19-21.
FINDING A GROOVE
Homer Bailey delivered the best performance of his career, holding the NL's top team scoreless for eight innings, and Cincinnati beat the Dodgers 4-2 for its season-high fifth straight victory. Bailey (4-4) allowed seven singles and had a career-high seven strikeouts while going eight innings for the first time in his career.
STATS
Philadelphia slugger Ryan Howard has 11 home runs and 29 RBIs in his last 15 games, with a .339 batting average. ... The Brewers have won 19 consecutive games over Pittsburgh at Miller Park, last losing to the Pirates in Milwaukee on May 3, 2007.
WELCOME HOME
John Smoltz pitched six solid innings in his first home start for St. Louis, allowing one run while striking out six. He got a no-decision, but the Cardinals beat Washington 3-2 on Albert Pujols' ninth-inning homer.
SPEAKING
"There's a kid named Noah that I've visited a couple times in the hospital, and he's at home right now, and I spent a couple hours with him today. He asked me the dreaded question - could I hit a home run for him in the game, and I told him I'd do the best I could.'' - Detroit's Brandon Inge, who homered in the Tigers' 6-2 win over Tampa Bay to fulfill the wish of a sick child he visited earlier Friday.
MLB Weekend Cheat Sheet
By Marc Lawrence
The final weekend in August finds the MLB pennant races heating up. And with it comes the opportunity to cash in on some solid handicapping situations.
Take a look into the top four series on tap this weekend. Remember, all results are within the series and all pitcher records are ‘team starts’ (the team’s record in games in which the pitcher starts) versus this opponent.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Most Recent Series Result: Braves 6-2 last eight games (8-4 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Braves 6-2 last eight games away (4-2 this season)
Key Day/Month Stat: Braves 7-0 away Fridays
Best Arm in the Series: Phillies’ Martinez 5-1, 2.42 ERA home career starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Phillies’ Blanton 1-2, 4.50 ERA last three starts
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Most Recent Series Result: Rockies 5-1 last six games (7-5 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Rockies 6-3 last nine games away (1-2 this season)
Key Day/Month Stat: Rockies 11-2 on Sundays
Best Arm in the Series: Rockies’ Marquis 7-2, 2.16 ERA career starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Giants’ Lincecum 3-6, 6.00 ERA career starts
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
Most Recent Series Result: Rays 6-3 last nine games
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Tigers 10-4 last 14 games home
Key Day/Month Stat: Rays 14-2 Saturdays
Best Arm in the Series: Tigers’ Verlander 4-0, 4.50 ERA career starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Rays’ Garza 1-4, 5.28 ERA career starts
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Most Recent Series Result: Twins 6-4 last 10 games (4-3 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Twins 8-3 last 11 games home
Key Day/Month Stat: Twins 16-4 home Sundays
Best Arm in the Series: Twins’ Baker 3-0, 5.11 ERA career starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Rangers’ Millwood 1-5, 4.31 ERA away career starts
MLB Weekend Top 10
By Bodog
How good is the American League East right now? The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the top teams in baseball, and yet they’re 10 games out of first place in the division. The New York Yankees lead the AL East with the best record in the majors. And if the Rays are going to make the playoffs, they’re four games behind the Boston Red Sox for the Wild Card, so they’d better get a move on.
We’ve got all three Eastern rivals lined up in this week’s betting preview, plus the hard-luck Toronto Blue Jays in their latest trip to Fenway Park. All stats are at press time; Bodog Sports is your home for the latest lines.
Top 10 paying teams
1. Los Angeles Angels (75-50, 22.80 units)
2. Texas Rangers (70-55, 18.76 units)
3. Colorado Rockies (72-55, 14.56 units)
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (75-52, 12.93 units)
5. Philadelphia Phillies (73-51, 10.79 units)
6. St. Louis Cardinals (74-54, 10.71 units)
7. San Francisco Giants (69-58, 10.46 units)
8. Florida Marlins (67-59, 9.60 units)
9. Seattle Mariners (66-61, 8.39 units)
10. New York Yankees (79-47, 6.81 units)
Top 10 paying pitchers
1. Matt Palmer, L.A. Angels (10-2 team record, 11.64 units)
2. Josh Johnson, Florida (19-7, 10.95 units)
3. Tim Wakefield, Boston (14-4, 10.22 units)
4. Jason Marquis, Colorado (17-8, 10.10 units)
5. Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay (16-7, 9.95 units)
6. Scott Feldman, Texas (16-7, 9.54 units)
7. Josh Beckett, Boston (18-7, 8.48 units)
8. Matt Cain, San Francisco (18-8, 8.30 units)
9. Jered Weaver, L.A. Angels (18-8, 8.13 units)
10. Felix Hernandez, Seattle (18-8, 7.41 units)
This weekend's top 10 storylines
1. Red Sox release SP Brad Penny, welcome RP Billy Wagner
2. Mets SP Oliver Perez (knee) out for season
3. Alfonso Soriano returns to left field for Cubs; may require MRI
4. Diamondbacks activate OF Justin Upton from DL
5. Catcher Jorge Posada (bruised finger) listed as day-to-day for Yankees
6. Rockies call up OF Eric Young Jr., put OF Dexter Fowler on DL
7. Nationals sign SP Livan Hernandez after release by Mets
8. Jake Peavy unlikely to start for White Sox on Saturday
9. John Smoltz to start for St. Louis on Friday, Mitchell Boggs on Saturday
10. Report: Milwaukee places RP Trevor Hoffman on waivers
This weekend's top 10 games to bet on:
1. Sunday: Atlanta at Philadelphia (8:05 p.m. Eastern, ESPN)
We should have an entertaining duel on Sunday Night Baseball between Jair Jurrjens (2.91 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) and Joe Blanton (3.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
2. Saturday: N.Y. Mets at Chicago Cubs (4:10 p.m., FOX)
The Mets are sending rookie Bobby Parnell (5.08 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) to the mound. This is his first month as a starter; New York’s only win was Parnell’s only quality start in four attempts.
3. Sunday: Chicago White Sox at N.Y. Yankees (1:05 p.m., TBS)
Chicago traded Freddy Garcia to the Phillies in 2006. He’ll make the third start of his return engagement for the White Sox after allowing eight earned runs in his first 10.2 innings of work, both losses for Chicago.
4. Friday: Toronto at Boston (7:05 p.m.)
The Jays (58-67, -14.82 units) have a run differential of plus-16, three more than the AL Central-leading Tigers at 67-59. Boston is on a 5-0 streak against Toronto at Fenway.
5. Saturday: Colorado at San Francisco (9:05 p.m., MLBN)
Our No. 4 money pitcher, Jason Marquis (3.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), squares off against former Cy Young winner Barry Zito (4.09 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
6. Friday: Tampa Bay at Detroit (7:05 p.m.)
The under is 16-7-2 in Detroit’s last 25 games against winning teams and 37-13-3 for Tampa’s Matt Garza (3.74 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) in his last 57 starts.
7. Saturday: L.A. Dodgers at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m., FOX)
It’s another start for Dodgers knuckleballer Charlie Haeger (1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP), who threw seven quality innings in each of his first two games, splitting the pair down the middle.
8. Sunday: Texas at Minnesota (2:10 p.m.)
Kevin Millwood (3.63 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) has the under at 15-7-3 for the Rangers, while the over is 15-9-1 for Scott Baker (4.47 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) and the Twins.
9. Friday: Kansas City at Seattle (10:10 p.m.)
It’s Felix Hernandez (2.73 ERA, 1.19 ERA) checking in at No. 10 on our money list. The Mariners are 11-3 in his last 14 starts, and the under is 11-4-1 in his last 16.
10. Saturday: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (7:05 p.m.)
The Pirates will make Kevin Hart (4.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) walk the plank. They’ve lost three of his four starts since coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline.
Saturday's Fox Tip Sheet
By Chris David
Saturday’s pro baseball action heats up with another Fox tripleheader and while none of the matchups are must-see battles, gamblers still have an opportunity to cash tickets. Will Los Angeles get upset by Cincinnati again? Are the Cubbies out of the playoff chase? Has Tampa Bay packed it in for the summer?
Let’s stop thinking and start handicapping the three contests.
Dodgers at Reds
Even though the Reds have no chance of reaching the postseason, the club hasn’t given up yet. Cincinnati has won five straight, including last night’s 4-2 victory over Los Angeles. Homer Bailey pitched a gem and the bullpen hung on. Fortunately for the Dodgers, they didn’t lose any ground in the NL West because the Rockies were blanked 2-0 by the Giants on Friday.
The Reds have cashed tickets as underdogs in all five games during their win streak and one of the weaker lineups in baseball has scored 28 runs during this stretch. All that could change quickly in the Queen City as evidenced on numerous occasions during the year. Matt Maloney (0-2, 6.11) was called up from Triple-A Louisville to start tonight’s game. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since June 18 when he gave up six runs in six innings to the Braves.
The Dodgers counter with Charlie Haeger (1-1, 1.93), who has looked sharp in his first two starts, giving up just three earned runs over 14 innings. And, the pair of efforts came against the Cubs and Cardinals. Most would figure he would have his way against the Reds’ lineup, which is near the bottom of the league in runs scored, but the team is on a roll right now. Also, some might look at the price on Haeger ($1.45) as too cheap and even a gift perhaps. Most know what happens when it looks too good.
One trend to look at with Maloney and Haeger is the total. The ‘under’ has gone 5-0 between the two pitchers this year. Last night’s win for the Reds snapped also snapped a three-game losing skid to the Dodgers. The home team now stands at 4-0 in this year’s first four meetings.
Mets at Cubs
A couple underachievers meet from Wrigley Field on Saturday, when the Cubs and Mets continue their three-game set. New York and Chicago were both considered contenders prior to the start of this season, but injuries and inconsistencies have cost both teams. The Mets have no chances to make the playoffs and the Cubs’ chances are slim to none.
Chicago was held in check with New York on Friday before Alfonso Soriano hit a three-run shot in the eighth inning, which lifted the Cubs to a 5-2 victory over the Mets.
New York snapped a five-game losing streak on Thursday with a 10-3 win over Florida before yesterday’s setback. The Mets hope Bobby Parnell (3-6, 5.08) can lead the club today or at least last past six innings. In his last two starts, the righty has been tagged for 14 runs in just eight innings. The Mets are 1-3 in his four starts and have posted just eight runs over that span.
Ryan Dempster (7-7. 4.07) snapped a two-game losing skid last Sunday with a 3-1 victory over the Dodgers. Dempster is a healthy favorite (-260*) against the Mets today and he’s fared well against them, going 8-4 in 12 starts. At home this year, he’s gone 4-2 with a 5.01 ERA. In his last three games at Wrigley, Dempster has given up 16 runs.
Last year, the Cubs took four of the six meetings against the Mets. These two teams have been known to light up the scoreboard, evidenced by a 14-6 ‘over’ run in the last 20 head-to-head battles.
Rays at Tigers
Tampa Bay (69-58) owns a better record than Detroit (68-59) but it would still miss the playoffs because of the division it plays in. The Rays trail the Yankees by 10 ½-games for the AL East lead and the Red Sox by 4 ½-games for the AL Wild Card. After watching the Rays trade pitcher Scott Kazmir to the Angels on Friday for some future talent, some pundits might believe that the club is waiving the white flag.
Detroit cruised past Tampa 6-2 on Friday, as Rich Porcello dominated the Rays through 5 2-3 innings. The combined eight runs dipped ‘under’ the closing number. The Tigers now hold a 4 1/2-game lead in the AL Central over the White Sox, who fell to the Yankees 5-2 in 10 innings last night.
David Price (6-6, 4.93) is one of the young players that the Rays hope to build around but he’s had a shaky year after making a name for himself during last October in the postseason. Price has never won on the road and quite frankly he’s been horrendous outside of T-Bay. He is 0-4 with an 8.07 ERA in seven starts, and he’s been tapped for at least five runs in his last five.
The Rays will have to support him this afternoon and they could have a good shot against Nate Robertson (1-0, 7.71), who is making his first start of the season after coming off the DL. Nate hasn’t faced the Rays since 2007 but his career mark is 0-3 in five appearances.
Detroit has done well against lefties at home in day games this season, posting a 6-1 record. The Rays are 4-7 in away afternoon games versus southpaws.
Quick Hitters:
Saturday’s have been great for some teams and bad for others. The Rays (14-6) and Tigers (12-8) have both been solid on this day, but the White Sox (16-4) have dominated foes on the last day of the week. Even though the Brewers (13-7) have been down this year, they step up on Saturday. If you’re looking for the worst team, then look above to the Reds (4-16).
Those betting baseball regularly surely know what the underdogs did on Thursday. The pups posted an 11-2 mark, and that included some serious winners in the Astros (+245) and Athletics (+200).
Even though the ‘under’ has cashed in three of the Angels last four games, the ‘over’ still owns a 72-48 record on the year. Is the offense that good? One of the biggest factors to cashing ‘over’ tickets is two-out base hits. How solid are the Angels? They’re hitting a league-best .297 average and have knocked in 232 RBI as well. Who’s the worst in this situation? Check out the Mariners (.195), Reds (.216), Diamondbacks (.216).
Sticking with the Angels? It’s really amazing how the team still sits in first place of the AL West considering the team ERA of 4.87. Only four pitching units are worse and none of them have a shot reach the postseason.
*Opening Line numbers from Las Vegas Sports Consultans, the largest distributor of odds in the state of Nevada.
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