Saturday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Matt Cain (9-8, 2.98 ERA), San Francisco Giants
This flame-throwing righty is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over his last four starts. Oddsmakers have made him a favorite in three of those for outings but only once was he priced above -150.
Bookies are also keeping his totals low. The over/under line has been 7.5 or lower in six of his last eight trips to the bump.
Livan Hernandez (8-7, 3.12 ERA), Washington Nationals
The ageless, soft-tossing righty has produced masterful starts in two of his last three outings and the under is 5-0 in his last five trips to the bump. The Nats have won just two of his last five appearances but Hernandez still owns a shiny 2.03 ERA in his last four starts.
Slumping
Clayton Richard (9-5, 3.60 ERA) San Diego Padres
Richard’s record would look a lot worse if it weren’t for the run support his teammates were giving him. The 26-year-old lefty has tossed just two quality starts in his last six appearances and yet the resilient Padres are 4-2 over the six-game stretch.
The over is 8-0 in his last eight trips to the bump and oddsmakers set 6.5 totals in each of his last two outings.
Josh Johnson (10-4, 1.96 ERA), Florida Marlins
Johnson’s pitched so well this season that any slightest falter gets him thrown into the slumping pit. The Marlin ace allowed seven hits, four walks and five runs in 5 2/3 innings in his last start.
"I just didn't make my pitches," Johnson said after the game. "My slider was more middle than toward the outside corner. When you have that, you have to make a perfect pitch every time."
He also gave up eight hits, three walks and three runs in a seven-inning outing in his start before last. Again, not incriminating stuff, but considering the guy’s been carrying an ERA under 2.00, it can’t go unnoticed.
Fox Saturday Baseball
By Judd Hall
It’s not the biggest card that Fox has had for its baseball tilts on a Saturday afternoon. What it lacks in quality, however, it makes up for in quality. The national crowd will either get to see the Red Sox battle the Yankees in the Bronx or Texas heading West for a battle with the Athletics. Let’s take a look at both battles.
Red Sox (62-47, -26) at Yankees (67-40, +485) – 4:10 p.m. EDT, Fox
There is little argument that the American League East has been the class of the big leagues this season. You can do that when three of the best clubs are housed in that cluster. But we are on the verge of seeing one team bow out as the Red Sox sit six games behind first-place New York at the time of this writing.
Some might wonder what Boston is in this spot as they’ve won seven of its last 10 games. The biggest reason I can offer up to you is the loss of Kevin Youkilis for the remainder of the campaign with a torn muscle in his right thumb. It hurts double as “Youk” has been the BoSox’s best bat against the Yankees, hitting .462 with a pair of homers and nine runs batted in.
John Lackey (10-6, 4.48) can’t swing the bat like that bald bully, but he sure can pitch. The former Halo had a lousy outing against the Tribe on Aug. 2 (6 ER in 5.1 IP). Yet Lackey has looked quite sharp in his past two starts away from Fenway, pitching 15.1 innings and giving up two earned runs for wins against the Angels and Mariners. The right-hander also shut down the Yanks’ offense in his last outing against them…of course, that was back on April 7. This is Lackey’s first start at the new Yankee Stadium. He was 3-3 with a 3.76 earned run average at the old house.
New York hit a snag recently while Alex Rodriguez was on his quest for good non-detectable PEDs and his 600th home run, losing its first three games of the month. Now that A-Rod has put that honor behind him against Toronto, the Yankees can continue their dogfight with Tampa Bay for the AL East lead.
One of the best ways for the Bombers to keep pace with the Rays is by putting their ace on the mound. C.C. Sabathia (13-5, 3.19) will gladly acquiesce to Joe Girardi’s needs on Saturday afternoon. The hefty lefty has lost his last two starts, but he’s done enough win in those games, yielding five earned runs in 13.2 innings of work. The problem there was that he got one run scored for him by the Yankees’ vaunted attack. Luckily for New York supporters, Sabathia has been practically automatic at home this season, evidenced by a 7-0 mark with a 2.69 ERA in 10 starts.
The Yankees have fared well in the rivalry this year, taking five of the first eight battles. Players looking for the totals would be wise to hit the ‘over’ as it has cashed in seven of those meetings. Boston has lost its last four games as a road pup in AL East battles this year with the ‘over’ going 3-1. New York has won eight of its last 12 games as a home “chalk” against divisional brethren.
Rangers (63-45, +413) at Athletics (54-53, +211) – 4:10 p.m. EDT, Fox
Things are good in Texas right now. The Rangers have new ownership, headed by the inventor of the Robin Ventura Punching Bag, Nolan Ryan. They also are home to the biggest division league in all of baseball at 8 ½-games against Oakland. Not Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale quality, but impressive nonetheless.
The Rangers will look to Rich Harden (4-3, 5.25) to help tighten that stranglehold on its divisional competition. Harden has been a bit of a road warrior of sorts recently with four of his last five starts outside of Arlington. That’s been a good thing for Texas as they’ve won three of those four tests. One thing to keep in mind is that Harden has posted a quality 19-9 record with an ERA of 2.91 for his career. If those numbers sound bloated, they should since he was an Athletic for his first 5 ½ seasons in the bigs.
Gio Gonzalez (9-7, 3.69) will get the nod for Saturday’s showdown in Oakland. Gonzalez has been a nice surprise for the A’s this season in their rotation. He’s coming off of an eight inning performance that saw him allow just four earned runs to the White Sox. The problem was that his offense scored just one run for him. Run support has been lacking for the southpaw for the past two months as Oakland scored three or less runs in seven of his last 10 starts. It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Athletics dropped five of those decisions.
Something that the A’s can hang their hat on for this series is that they have gone 11-5 at home against teams from the AL West. Texas, on the other hand, is just 8-7 in road tests against divisional foes. But the Rangers have feasted on lefties as road pups, evidenced by a 3-1 mark. This season series has been one for the home teams as they’re 6-3 in nine matches.
vegasinsider.com
MLB RoundUp For 8/7
By Dan Bebe
National League
Reds @ Cubs (-120) with a total of N/A
Will he, or won't he, have control and life on his stuff? Volquez, now set to make his 5th start since coming off the DL, will look to continue what he started in a short start last time out, going 5 innings against the Braves and allowing just a run. That said, he walked 5, and his walks are actually quite a problem, having put 15 men on base for free in his 4 starts. Volquez is, when healthy, 2-0 with an 0.75 ERA against the Cubs. Wells is coming off an ugly start against the Brewers, but he has a strong history against Cincinnati, so I guess we'll see. Wells has the tendency to pitch in waves, and I'm concerned he lets that last start get to him.
Rockies (-135) @ Pirates with a total of 8
De La Rosa is starting to get things turned around a bit. His strikeout numbers are solid, and he's already pitched well against the Pirates once this year, though the Rockies last that one to a stellar effort from Zach Duke on the other side. Ohlendorf has a rather poor history with the Rockies, going 1-1 with a 6.94 ERA, and only pitched a third of an inning in Colorado a couple weeks ago. He's been hit hard by a few of the Rockies regulars, as well. I'm generally not a fan of backing a road favorite when that team is weak away from home, and the Rockies most certainly fit that mold. At the same time, though, the Pirates are bad, and the Rockies are in crunch time, and to some degree, De La Rosa is undervalued (at least, in terms of a number against the Pirates is concerned), so if the Rockies were ever a marginal value, and in a spot where they might get a hit or two, this would seem to be that case.
Mets @ Phillies (-130) with a total of 7
The Mets remain a complete mess away from home, and the fact that Santana is this size of a dog to Cole Hamels certainly reinforces that fact. Johan has been getting hit, too, surrendering a ton of base hits in his last two starts, though they've largely come in one awful inning (the first) in each game. If he can settle down earlier, he's got a shot to really control the game. The Phillies, though, put up a 10-spot on Johan earlier this year, so we have to weigh the revenge angle in opposition to the idea that Philadelphia is just going to hit Santana, who clearly doesn't have his top velocity. Hamels, meanwhile, is sort of rumbling along, not really make a ton of noise, but having a solid season, overall. He gives up some hits and runs, but he's striking out a ton of batters, and the Mets can't do squat on the road. There's certainly some sort of reason the line is this high, even though a few of the Mets have actually hit Hamels with some authority.
Astros @ Brewers (-130) with a total of 8
Two pitchers, largely different season numbers, mostly similar numbers against this particular opponent, and contrasting numbers against each other on the season. Complicated enough for you? Brett Myers is having a great year for a bad team, he's 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA against the Brewers, but he was solid in one start against them this year, and gave up 4 homers in the other. Wolf, 7-9 with a 4.91 ERA against the League, 5-5 with a 3.49 ERA against the 'Stros, but has dominated Houston twice this year, already, though his pen gave up the game when he took a line drive off the arm in the second of those two starts. Houston is suddenly the "posh" team to back, especially at a dog price, but I'm not so sure that the boat hasn't sailed, at least just a bit. Wolf was a -130 road favorite to Wesley Wright, and what we're seeing from this line is that Brett Myers is roughly a 50-cent jump over Wright, if nothing else were involved. The Astros are starting to get a little respect, so if you like them, get 'em quick, since the value is dissipating as we speak.
Giants @ Braves (-145) with a total of 7
With the way Matt Cain has been dealing, I'm not sure he should be this large of an underdog, though it's pretty clear why. Tim Hudson is having one of the best seasons in the entire NL, still powering ahead with a 2.36 ERA, and to this point in the year, really having only 1 bad start. That's incredibly impressive. Cain is on a nice little roll of his own, and actually has just slightly superior career numbers against the Braves than Hudson does against the Giants. However, Hudson did go 7 innings of 2-run ball in San Francisco once already this year, so no reason to think he doesn't do it again, here in Atlanta, especially given the Giants are less proficient on the road. Tough call, to be sure, as the total looks on the mark, and we know how tough Atlanta is, at home.
Cardinals @ Marlins (-180) with a total of 6.5
Doesn't this total look outrageously low for a game being played in Florida (not a terribly huge park), and considering the Cardinals are throwing a guy with a 4.58 ERA? It looks low to me. I have to think money is going to come in on the Over, since Westbrook's last start led to a 13-run game, and Johnson actually got hit pretty hard in San Diego in his last outing. I believe a great deal of my opinion on this game will be formed once I see where the public money is actually coming, so we can more accurately determine if this total is set ultra-low because Westbrook is going to match Johnson pitch for pitch, or if it's low because the books know the amount of Under money that Josh Johnson can draw. Stay tuned.
Padres (-125) @ D'backs with a total of 9
Rematch game, though no exclamation point needed since no one outside of San Diego, and outside of Rodrigo Lopez's locker is really going to care. In any case, Clayton Richard is another of those guys that I keep thinking is going to hit a wall, but after a brief lull in the middle of the season, he's showing signs of waking back up. Still, it seems like teams are starting to get the scouting report, and Richard hasn't truly changed his approach. On top of that, the D'backs scored 5 off him in a Padres win earlier this year, so they had success against him even in the first match-up. Lopez is serving up homers at an unbelievable rate, but when he gets his good 2-seamer in the right spot, he can be pretty consistent. This is an ugly one, but I can't help but think Arizona's big righthanded power is going to knock in at least a couple off Richard, and the hope is that Lopez can only give up 1 homer tonight. Hah.
Nationals @ Dodgers (-180) with a total of 7.5
Way out of our price range, for a team that can't hit. Moving on.
American League
Rays @ Blue Jays with a total of N/A
Well, we probably weren't going to venture a play on this early game, anyway, but without a line, it's awfully tough to truly get a feel for it. For what it's worth, Shields is coming off, arguably, his best start of the 2010 season, so he might be ramping back up. I'm scared of Shields when he's on his game, though the Jays have hit him a little bit; really, more intermittent success than anything else. Litsch isn't very good. The end.
Red Sox @ Yankees (-186) with a total of 8.5
This is another one where we'll simplify things a bit - neither team should ever really be this large of a dog in the showdown series, though I suppose Sabathia has been a little more up to pitching in big games the last year-plus than he had been earlier in his career.
Rangers @ Athletics (-120) with a total of 7.5
This is a strong opening number for the A's, there's no doubt about that. Considering Cliff Lee opened as a -170 road favorite to Dallas Braden, oddsmakers are saying that the dropoff to Harden and the upgrade to Gio is worth 90 cents? I find that hard to believe. Maybe 65-70, at most. The other 20 cents is credit to the A's, either from the oddsmakers themselves or some "test" money that got this sucker to open at a strong number. Because, really, let's be honest - Texas has only been a dog lately to aces, and I'm not sure I'd put Gonzalez in that territory just yet. He pitched poorly in Texas once, and well in Texas once, but hasn't yet faced the Rangers in Oakland, where Gonzalez has been lights out this year. Harden, by the way, is in that interesting "second game back" spot, which has shown itself to be something of a letdown situation, moreso this year than in years past.
Angels @ Tigers with a total of N/A
Not only don't we have a line, we don't even have both pitchers. I love doing a ton of work as much as the next guy, but this one can wait. Let's feel free to chat about this game in the comments section, if anyone feels so inclined, but I know comments are a little less prevalent on the weekends, anyway, so, moving on.
White Sox (-170) @ Orioles with a total of 9
Good lord, Kevin Millwood, you are truly hanging on by a thread. I know life with the Orioles has been painful, but the kids are playing hard under Showalter now, and it's time for the veteran to do the same. And really, is there any team in the American League that doesn't have at least 2 guys hitting over .400 against Millwood lifetime? As you guys have come to know, I only even mention the words "run" and "line" in rapid succession in the most severe cases, but Millwood, to me, seems like a guy ripe for the picking. I mean, how many other starters have given up 5 runs or more in 5 straight starts and are still making multiple millions? Bring up someone on the farm, for real.
Twins (-145) @ Indians with a total of 8
Justin Morneau might make this play a little easier to decide upon. That's the first thought that popped into my head, since the Twins have been Carmona's nemesis in the Majors, and the big lefty is a good reason why. Delmon Young and Jason Kubel have joined the party in the past, and Carmona gave up 6 runs to the Twins in his only start against them, this year. Interestingly, Carl Pavano hasn't faced the Indians this year, despite playing in the same division, and considering he's faced Kansas City 4 times, that struck me as odd. Anyway, he has been, as we've spoken of before, a pillar of consistency, and the horse of the AL, in my opinion, but the Indians are hitting well, and that's keeping this line within reason. Someone on the road is going to lose today, and someone is going to win. I'm thinking the Twins are one of the ones that wins.
Royals @ Mariners (-120) with a total of 8
The epic "who cares?" series continues in Seattle, with ultra-compelling match-up number two. And I repeat, number two. Bruce Chen, who, as we speak, is hiring a pit crew to try to keep the wheels from falling off, will try to do to Seattle what every other half-baked pitcher in the League has done, and that's throw a quality start. David Pauley (and I'm seeing hints that Jason Vargas might also get the nod) has been abysmal in his 4 starts this year, and I see no reason to think that improves. Of course, the total of 8 seems to indicate that someone is going to have trouble scoring. Which team is more likely to struggle at the plate?
Tips and Trends
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Rangers: Texas is squaring off with their closest challenger within their own division in Oakland. The Rangers have the largest division lead in baseball thanks to a dominant pitching staff. Texas has struggled with an inconsistent offense of late, but their pitching staff keeps bailing them out. Texas is 63-45 SU on the year, including 27-24 SU on the road. The Rangers are +4.13 and -5.96 both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Pitcher Rich Harden will square off against his former team today, as he is 4-3 with an ERA of 5.25 and a WHIP of 1.61 this season. The Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a left-handed starter. Texas is 20-6 in their last 26 games during game 2 of a series. The Rangers are 25-10 in their last 35 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Texas is 8-3 in Hardens last 11 starts.
Rangers are 17-7 last 24 road games overall.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games against the American League West.
Key Injuries - 2B Ian Kinsler (groin) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Athletics (-110, O/U 8): Oakland is now the closest pursuer to the Rangers in the American League West division standings. The Athletics are just pesky enough to give Texas a run for their money down the stretch of the season. Oakland has a great young pitching staff that has led them to a season record of 54-53 SU, including 32-23 SU at home. The A's are +2.11 and -6.67 units both SU and on the RL overall this year. Lefty Gio Gonzalez will climb the home mound today, as he is 9-7 with an ERA of 3.69 and a WHIP of 1.34 this year. The Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games. Oakland is 6-1 in their last 7 home games against a right-handed starter. The Athletics are 6-1 in their last 7 games during game 2 of a series. Oakland is 7-3 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Athletics are 5-2 in Gonzalez's last 7 home starts overall. Oakland is 1-5 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts against a team with a winning record.
Athletics are 4-1 last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-0-1 last 5 Saturday games.
Key Injuries - LF Conor Jackson (leg) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Mets: New York has taken a mighty fall in the standings, as they now have a losing record on the season. The Mets are 54-55 SU this year, including a paltry 21-36 SU on the road. New York continues to struggle on offense, their biggest culprit all season long. The Mets are -2.36 and +15.01 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Ace pitcher Johan Santana will attempt to get the Mets back to .500 on the year with a great performance tonight. Santana is 8-6 with an ERA of 3.20 and a WHIP of 1.24 this season. The Mets are 18-38 in their last 56 road games against a team with a winning record. New York is 7-17 in their last 24 games on grass. The Mets are 7-21 in their last 28 road games against a left-handed starter. New York is 7-3 in Santana's last 10 Saturday starts. The Mets are 3-8 in Santana's last 11 road starts against a team with a winning record. New York is 1-6 in Santana's last 7 starts against the National League East.
Mets are 2-6 last 8 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games against the National League East.
Key Injuries - LF Jason Bay (concussion) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 2
Phillies (-130, O/U 7): Philadelphia has won their past 5 games, surprising considering they are battled the injury bug. The Phillies are doing everything they can to catch up with Atlanta in the National League East division. Philadelphia is 61-48 SU this season, including 33-17 SU at home. The Phillies are -0.44 and -7.20 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. Lefty Cole Hamels will make the home start tonight, as he stands 7-7 with an ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.27 this year. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games against the National League East. Philadelphia is 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 12-2 in their last 14 games on grass. Philadelphia is 5-0 in Hamels' last 5 starts overall. The Phillies are 1-6 in Hamels' last 7 Saturday starts. The Phillies are 0-4 in Hamels' last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
Phillies are 19-7 last 26 home games.
Under is 10-1 last 11 home games against a left-handed starter.
Key Injuries - CF Shane Victorino (oblique) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER - Total of the Day)