Saturday FOX Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The three nationally televised afternoon games on FOX will certainly not get as much run as college football, but each matchup does involve the road team in playoff contention, while the home team is trying to play the role of spoiler. Two teams that were expected to have their records flipped around before the season began meet up in Milwaukee.
Giants at Brewers (4:05 PM EST)
San Francisco continues its road trip, after dropping two of three at Philadelphia. The Giants sit one game back of the Rockies in the NL Wild Card race heading into Friday's action. The Brewers, meanwhile, are in the midst of a disappointing season following a Wild Card berth last season.
Matt Cain (12-4, 2.50 ERA) has been as consistent as any pitcher in baseball this season, as San Francisco is 19-8 in the right-hander's 27 starts. The road is a toss-up when backing Cain, with the Giants going 7-6 in his 13 outings away from AT&T Park. This will be Cain's third start against the Brewers this season, beating Milwaukee at home in April, then losing at Miller Park in June.
Yovani Gallardo (12-10, 3.56 ERA) continues to have an up-and-down season as Milwaukee's ace, going 2-3 in six August decisions. The Brewers have won each of Gallardo's last four home outings, but the only team in playoff contention Milwaukee beat was Atlanta on July 25. Gallardo is 2-0 against San Francisco this season, allowing three earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has listed the Brewers as a $1.25 home favorites, with the total set at 7 ½ (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'over').
Red Sox at White Sox (4:05 PM EST)
Boston is still atop the AL Wild Card standings, following a crucial series victory at Tampa Bay earlier in the week. The White Sox are back at home after a 3-8 road trip, but it did end with victories over the Twins and Cubs.
It will be determined Friday night if Tim Wakefield will start on Saturday, or if rookie Junichi Tazawa will get the ball. Wakefield (11-3, 3.97 ERA) received a cortisone shot for his back on Monday, as the veteran knuckler looks to make only his second start since the All-Star Break. The lone outing Wakefield has made since July was against Chicago on August 26, a no-decision in a 3-2 victory. Wakefield looked strong, allowing six hits and one earned run in seven innings.
The Red Sox are set to send out the righty Tazawa (2-3, 6.65 ERA) if Wakefield cannot go. Tazawa allowed ten hits and nine earned runs in just four innings of a 9-5 loss to the White Sox on August 27 at Fenway. Tazawa has compiled only one quality outing in four starts, coincidentally coming against the Yankees.
Gavin Floyd (10-9, 3.97 ERA) has been a solid play at home this season, with the ChiSox winning nine of his 12 starts at U.S. Cellular Field. The 'under' has hit a steady rate on the South Side for Floyd as well, nailing it in nine of 12 opportunities. Run support has been a problem for Floyd recently, with the Sox tallying a measly four runs in his last three starts, all losses.
Rangers at Orioles (4:05 PM EST)
Texas is still within distance of catching Boston in the AL Wild Card race, as the Rangers are in a stretch of 12 games taking on the Orioles, Indians, Mariners, and A's. Meanwhile, Baltimore is in the midst of a gauntlet that takes them through the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays for 12 games following the Texas series.
Kevin Millwood (10-8, 3.61 ERA) has been solid at home, but a questionable play away from Arlington. The veteran righty sports a 3-6 road mark, with an ERA of 4.44, while allowing 14 home runs. August was not a kind month to Millwood, with Texas going 1-4 in his starts, while not lasting past the sixth inning once. Texas has won seven straight starts made by Millwood against Baltimore dating back to 2006. The 'under' looks good for Millwood as well, hitting in all six of his day outings, and nine of 13 on the road.
Lefty Brian Matusz (3-2, 5.28 ERA) is coming off his best start on this level, shutting down Cleveland in a 5-2 victory. Matusz gave up four hits and one run in seven innings of work, while striking out a career-high eight.
LVSC has listed the Rangers as a $1.35 road 'chalk,' with the total listed at 9 ½ (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'over').
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Saturday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Joe Blanton, Philadelphia Phillies
Blanton is following suit in the Phillies rotation. Along with Hamels, Lee and a revitalized Pedro Martinez, Blanton has Philadelphia rolling toward another solid September.
He has given up three or fewer runs in 12 straight starts and owns a 2.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP since the break. In his most recent start, Blanton went seven innings against the Braves, giving up one run on three hits. That was his 10th quality start in a row.
Randy Wolf, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers bullpen should send Wolf a card and some flowers for blowing a win in the left-hander's most recent outing. Unfortunately, Hallmark has yet to tap into the “Sorry we pissed away your awesome arm” demographic.
Wolf put in his fifth straight quality start, allowing just two runs through six innings while striking out seven batters. That letdown handed Wolf a no-decision and spoiled his four-game winning streak. It also snubbed the starter of his 100th career victory.
Since the All-Star break, Wolf is 5-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 55 strikeouts.
Slumping
Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays
Cecil’s final start of 2009 couldn’t come quick enough. The youngster has been shelled in his past two starts, allowing 12 earned runs in just over eight innings of work.
Cecil was supposed to be shut down for the year last week, but manager Cito Gaston granted the southpaw a chance to redeem himself and end the year on a high note. Despite allowing seven runs in five innings his last time out, Cecil still earned a "W" against the Rangers thanks to the 18 runs Toronto put on the board.
Don’t expect the Jays to match that output this weekend. Toronto’s recent efforts have locals pining for the start of the hockey season. And if you’re a Maple Leafs fan, you know things in the Rogers Centre must be bad.
Mat Latos, San Diego Padres
Latos is another young arm getting his final start of 2009. The Padres right-hander was looking good early in his most recent trip to the bump, but was lit up for four runs in the fourth inning against the Marlins, giving Latos his third loss in his past four starts.
Latos showed promise in a seven-inning shutout effort versus the Braves on Aug. 25. But that performance has been bookended by nightmarish showings. In his last three games, Latos posts a 5.79 ERA.
Baseball Today
SCOREBOARD
Saturday, Sept. 5
San Francisco at Milwaukee (4:10 p.m. EDT). All-Star right-hander Matt Cain (12-4, 2.50 ERA) faces Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo (12-10, 3.56 ERA) in the second game of the weekend series. Cain is 0-2 with a 3.10 ERA in his last seven starts.
STARS
Friday
-Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals, homered twice to help St. Louis beat Pittsburgh 14-7.
-Vladimir Guerrero, Angels, hit a two-run single in the eighth inning off Kansas City's beleaguered bullpen, lifting Los Angeles to a 2-1 win.
-Bengie Molina, Giants, homered on the first pitch of the eighth to rally San Francisco over Milwaukee 3-2.
-John Baker, Marlins, homered and matched a career high with four RBIs in Florida's 9-6 win over Washington.
HALLADAY WEEKEND
Roy Halladay pitched a one-hitter to snap a three-start losing streak and the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Yankees 6-0, ending New York's winning streak at seven games.
SHUT-DOWN SIZEMORE
Cleveland Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore will miss the remainder of the season because of soreness in his left elbow that will require arthroscopic surgery. He'll also have lower abdominal surgery on an injured groin a week after the elbow operation.
EFFICIENT
The Royals had 11 hits, the Angels three - but Los Angeles beat Kansas City 2-1 when Vladimir Guerrero hit a two-run single in the eighth inning.
ROAD WARRIOR
Scott Feldman tied a franchise record for road wins, giving up one run and four hits in 6 2-3 innings of Texas' 5-1 victory at Baltimore to improve to 11-1 on the road. The only other Texas pitchers to win as many away games in one season were Rick Helling (1998) and Vicente Padilla (2008). Feldman also matched Bobby Witt's team record of seven straight road victories, set in 1990.
OFF THE CLIFF
Cliff Lee struggled for the second straight start after an eight-game winning streak. The left-hander lasted only three innings Friday in a 7-0 loss at Houston, giving up six runs and nine hits in three innings. He allowed a total of three runs in winning his first five starts with the Phillies, then gave up six runs on 10 hits in last weekend's loss to Atlanta before his early exit on Friday.
IN A PINCH
Jason Giambi came through again Friday, delivering a pinch-hit RBI single in the eighth inning to lift Colorado to a 5-4 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The veteran has driven in at least one run, and four total, in all three of his pinch-hitting appearances since joining the Rockies earlier this week.
APPROACHING 2K
Ichiro Suzuki had two hits in Seattle's 6-3 victory over Oakland to move within four of 2,000 for his career. He is likely to become the second-fastest player in history to reach that plateau. Al Simmons did it in 1,390 games while Suzuki has played in 1,391. George Sisler is currently second on the list in 1,414 games.
SWEET SIXTEEN
Justin Verlander got his 16th win of the season - just barely. Verlander (16-7) needed Adam Everett's tiebreaking RBI single during a three-run ninth and then had to sweat through Fernando Rodney's two-run ninth before the AL Central-leading Tigers beat the Tampa Bay Rays 4-3 on Friday night.
STATS
Last-place Pittsburgh lost its eighth straight, wasting a comeback against 17-game winning Adam Wainwright in a 14-7 loss to St. Louis. ... Florida won its third straight game by beating Washington 9-6. The Nationals have lost seven in a row. ... Cincinnati matched a season high with its fifth straight win, 3-1 over Atlanta. It was the Braves' third straight loss. ... Houston's Wandy Rodriguez (13-9) won his fifth straight home decision with the Astros' 7-0 victory over Philadelphia.
SPEAKING
"I wasn't throwing the ball. It's grenade launching.'' - Nationals stand-in starter Garrett Mock, who took the place of Craig Stammen and allowed allowed six runs on seven hits in three innings.
Detroit (73-61) at Tampa Bay (72-62)
The Tigers look to take another step closer to the A.L. Central title when they send Armando Galarraga (6-10, 5.05 ERA) to the Tropicana Field mound against Rays ace James Shields (9-10, 3.86).
Detroit followed up a three-game home sweep of the Indians with Friday’s 4-3, come-from-behind victory over the Rays, scoring three runs in the top of the ninth inning. Not only have the Tigers won four in a row, but they’re 14-7 in their last 21 (5-3 on the road) and 7-1 in their last eight against right-handed starters. On the downside, Jim Leyland’s squad is in slumps of 7-15 on the highway, 21-44 on the road against winning teams, 3-7 on Saturday and65-16 on field turf.
Tampa Bay is just 3-6 in its last nine games, including splitting a four-game set in Detroit last weekend. The Rays remain on positive runs of 37-16 at home, 73-27 at home versus right-handed starters, 49-16 in the second game of a series and 15-2 on Saturday.
These teams have meet 12 times since last August, with the host winning eight of those contests, and the Rays are still 6-2 in the last eight meetings with Detroit at Tropicana Field.
Galarraga hasn’t started a game since Aug. 22 in Oakland, when he gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings, but Detroit fell, 3-2. Behind Galarraga, the Tigers are in ruts of 1-7 overall, 1-4 as a visitor and 0-4 on Saturday. The young right-hander is 2-6 with a 5.65 ERA in 11 road starts, with Detroit going 3-8. Also, Galarraga faced the Rays twice last year, allowing one run in seven innings of a 6-5 loss at Tampa Bay, then surrendering five runs in 7 2/3 innings at home, but the Tigers prevailed, 7-5.
Shields earned an 11-7 victory at Detroit on Monday despite yielding five runs (four earned) on 10 hits in seven innings. The right-hander is now 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in five career starts against the Tigers, with Tampa Bay winning all five contests. Shields has won his last two starts – both on the road – after going 1-4 in his previous five outings. He’s 4-6 in 15 home starts this season despite a solid 3.35 ERA. The Rays have dropped Shields’ last five outings at The Trop.
For the Tigers, the under is on runs of 8-2 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 5-1 against the A.L. East, 8-2 on Saturday, 7-2 with Galarraga on the hill and 9-2 when Galarraga works on the road. Meanwhile, the under is 20-7-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 29 games against the A.L. Central and 8-2-2 in its last 12 versus right-handed starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
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