Late Sunday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The first full Sunday card in baseball is filled with plenty of solid pitchers taking the mound including Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Johan Santana, and Justin Verlander during the day. Later on, several key matchups take center-stage including a pair of contests out west. Also, we'll take a look at the ESPN Sunday Night showdown between the Cardinals and Brewers. Let's start in Anaheim as the A's try to stay hot with their series finale against the Angels.
Athletics at Angels - 3:35 PM EST
The Halos have started slow out of the gate after dropping four of their first five games, wrapping up things with the A's. Oakland's offense has picked up recently by tallying 22 runs in the last three victories. Los Angeles has hit a wall with just ten runs during a four-game skid.
Joe Saunders looks to bounce back from a poor debut to the season, allowing 5 ER in 5 innings of a 5-3 loss to Minnesota. The Twins went deep on Saunders three times, equaling the amount of homers the southpaw gave up in his final six starts of last season. Saunders has had success against Oakland with four wins in five outings in 2009, allowing 2 ER or less in each victory.
The A's counter with Dallas Braden, who is coming off one of the best starts of his career. The lefty scattered four hits and one run in seven innings of work as Oakland edged Seattle, 2-1 in ten innings. Braden's luck hasn't been there against the Angels with Oakland going 1-4 in his five lifetime starts versus Los Angeles. All five of those games have finished 'under' the total with the A's crossing the plate just nine times.
The Angels are listed as a $1.30 favorite, while the total is set at 9 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'under'). The A's are 0-5 the last five on the road against left-handed starters, while the Angels have won five straight series finales against Oakland.
Braves at Giants - 4:05 PM EST
San Francisco has been impressive out of the gate as they send out reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum to the mound against Atlanta. The Braves have struggled against the Giants' ace, as Kenshin Kawakami tries to slow down San Francisco's offense.
Lincecum has beaten the Braves in five of six career starts, including a home shutout of Atlanta last May by a 4-0 count. The Braves got revenge on Lincecum with a 4-2 victory last July at Turner Field as the righty lasted only five innings. Each outing against the Braves has seen low-scoring affairs with five 'unders' getting cashed. Lincecum didn't suffer a Cy Young hangover with a 5-2 win at Houston in the season opener, allowing four hits in seven scoreless innings.
Kawakami hasn't made a start since last August as the Braves' righty finished last season at 7-12 with an ERA of 3.86. Atlanta won seven of Kawakami's 13 road starts, but fell as an away favorite at AT&T Park last May, 6-3. The Giants figured out the 34-year old twice last season as underdogs, including a 5-1 road victory in late July as $1.60 'dogs.
The Braves were a perfect 3-0 last season as road underdogs of $1.60 or higher, while the Giants are 6-1 the last seven starts Lincecum has made as a home favorite of at least $2.00. San Francisco opened up as a $2.00 'chalk,' with the total set at 7.
Cardinals at Brewers - 8:05 PM EST
Milwaukee tries to avoid the sweep at home as the Brewers face former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals. The Redbirds rallied off Trevor Hoffman in Friday's 5-4 victory, followed up by a 7-1 blowout on Saturday afternoon.
The Brewers send Randy Wolf to the hill to stop the bleeding. The veteran lefty picked up a victory in his Milwaukee debut with a 7-5 triumph over Colorado. Wolf gave up nine hits and 4 ER in 6.2 innings while striking out eight. The ex-Dodger lasted just under four innings in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cardinals last season, but L.A. managed a 5-3 win. The losing pitcher in that game was Carpenter, just the third loss in the last 11 road starts for the Cardinals when the righty takes the mound on the highway.
Carpenter looked outstanding in his season debut by scattering five hits and 2 ER in six innings of work in an 11-6 win at Cincinnati. The St. Louis ace has dominated Milwaukee, allowing 11 hits and 3 ER in three starts last season. The Cardinals won two of the three outings, with the lone loss coming in a 1-0 setback at Miller Park last May (8 IP, 2 hits, and 10 K's).
The Cardinals are listed as a $1.40 road favorites with the total set at 7 ½. St. Louis has struggled in the third game of a series dating back to last season, going 1-8, including Thursday's walk-off loss at Cincinnati. On the flip side, the Brewers are a solid 7-1 in the third game of a series the last eight opportunities.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (4-1) at Milwaukee (2-2)
Chris Carpenter (1-0, 3.00 ERA) looks to duplicate a strong Opening Day effort and lead the Cardinals to a three-game sweep of the rival Brewers, who will counter with lefty Randy Wolf (1-0, 5.40) at Miller Park.
St. Louis got a two-out, two-run, ninth-inning homer off Milwaukee closer Trevor Hoffman to steal Friday’s series opener 5-4, then came back Saturday and cruised to a 7-1 victory. Despite winning the last two games, the Cardinals are in still slumps of 5-10 overall, 2-5 against left-handed starters, 0-5 on Sunday and 1-8 in the third game of the season. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has won five of eight overall, four of six against division foes, five of six on Sunday and seven of eight when playing the third game of a series.
This visitor has owned this rivalry recently, winning the last nine meetings in a row and 16 of 20 since the start of last season. That includes six straight wins for St. Louis at Miller Park.
Carpenter was in midseason form in his debut at Cincinnati on Monday, yielding two runs on five hits while walking none in a six innings, earning an 11-6 victory. The right-hander’s last four starts have come on the road, and going back to last August, he’s surrendered just nine earned runs in his last seven road outings covering 47 innings (1.72 ERA).
With Carpenter on the hill, the Cardinals are on incredible runs of 93-39 overall, 6-2 on the road, 25-5 when he pitches after five days rest and 48-18 when working against N.L. Central rivals, but they are just 1-4 in his last five on Sunday. The 35-year-old veteran is 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA in nine career starts against the Brewers, but last year he went 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA in three starts, including two gems at Miller Park in which he gave up a total of three hits in 17 scoreless innings with 20 strikeouts against just two walks.
Wolf struck out eight and didn’t walk a batter in his debut with the Brewers on Tuesday, but he did yield four runs on nine hits against the Rockies. However, his offense bailed him out in a 7-5 home victory, and going back to last season with the Dodgers, Wolf’s teams have won 10 of his last 13 starts. Also, Tuesday marked the first time in 13 starts and just the second time in 21 outings that Wolf surrendered more than three earned runs in a game.
Wolf is now 3-4 with a 5.88 ERA in nine career starts at Miller Park, and he’s 3-5 with a 3.64 ERA in 10 career outings against St. Louis. Last year with Los Angeles, he faced the Cardinals twice (once in the playoffs) and gave up four runs on 13 hits and even walks in 9 2/3 innings. He’s surrendered two earned runs or fewer in three straight and six of seven against the Redbirds.
St. Louis has stayed under the total in 10 of its last 13 games against southpaw starters, but otherwise the team is on “over” streaks of 4-1 on Sunday, 7-2 when Carpenter starts on Sunday and 11-5 when Carpenter goes on the third game of a series. Likewise, Milwaukee carries “over” trends of 15-6-3 overall, 6-2-1 at home and 8-2-2 against right-handed pitching, and the over is 7-0-1 in Wolf’s last eight trips to the mound.
Conversely, the under is 6-2-1 the last eight times these rivals have hooked up and 13-3-1 in the last 16 clashes in Milwaukee. The teams have also stayed low in four of Carpenter’s last five outings versus the Brewers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (3-2) at Tampa Bay (3-2)
One day after CC Sabathia flirted with a no-hitter, the Yankees turn to A.J. Burnett (0-0, 5.40) as they wrap up a three-game series at Tropicana Field against the Rays and ace James Shields (0-0, 4.50).
Sabathia took a no-hitter into the bottom of the eighth inning Saturday, but it was broken up on a clean two-out single by Tampa Bay catcher Kelly Shoppach. Still, Sabathia and the Yankees rolled to the 10-0 victory, rebounding from Friday’s series-opening 9-3 loss. New York is on positive upticks of 79-33 overall, 43-17 against the A.L. East, 50-19 versus right-handed starters and 47-22 on Sunday.
Tampa Bay also carries a slew of positive trends, including 9-4 overall, 113-51 at home the last two-plus seasons, 12-4 against division foes and 6-1 versus right-handed starters, but the Rays have dropped nine of 12 on Sunday overall and four of five when Shields works on Sunday.
The home team has taken seven of the last nine in this series after a 7-3 run by the visitor. Still, New York is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings overall.
Burnett lasted just five innings at Boston on Tuesday, giving up four runs (three earned) with a walk and five strikeouts, failing to get a decision as the Yankees rallied for a 6-4 victory. The Yankees are now 7-2 in Burnett’s last nine starts and they’ve also won nine of his last 11 against the A.L. East and four straight when he pitches on Sunday. However, the veteran right-hander has struggled in his last three road efforts, allowing 16 runs (15 earned) in 13 innings (11.08 ERA).
Burnett went 4-0 with a 1.97 ERA in five starts against the Rays last season, with the veteran giving up just seven earned runs in 32 innings. He won all three of his starts at Tropicana Field, posting a 1.35 ERA (three earned allowed in 20 innings). For his career, he’s 11-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 21 starts versus the Rays (5-2, 2.05 ERA in 10 games at Tampa).
Shields had a decent 2010 debut against Baltimore on Tuesday, giving up three runs on nine hits in six innings, getting a no-decision in Tampa Bay’s 4-3 home victory. Going back to last September, Shields has 28 strikeouts against just five walks in his last four outings, with the Rays going 3-1. Also, Tampa has prevailed in 30 of Shields’ last 44 home starts and four of his last five against the A.L. East, but it has lost six of seven when he works the third game of a series.
Shields has not fared well against the Yankees in his career, going 1-7 with a 6.00 ERA in nine starts, eight of which Tampa Bay has lost. In his lone game against New York last year, he took an 11-5 home loss after giving up five runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings, falling to 0-4 with a 5.61 ERA in four outings at Tropicana Field versus the Yanks.
It’s been all “overs” for the Bronx Bombers of late, including 8-1 overall, 9-1-1 on the road, 5-1 against the A.L. East and 5-1-1 against right-handed starters, and they’ve also hurdled the number in Burnett’s last four road outings and five of his last six against the A.L. East. On the flip side, Tampa Bay is on “under” tears of 7-4 overall (all at home and all against the A.L. East), 7-2 on Sunday, 20-6-1 in the third game of a series and 12-5-1 when Shields faces division rivals.
Finally, the over has hit in 10 of the last 14 Yankees-Rays clashes at Tropicana Field and four of Burnett’s last five starts against Tampa Bay.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
MLB RoundUp For 4/11
By Dan Bebe
National League
Nationals @ Mets (-230) with a total of 8
Adam Dunn is 4-for-7 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Santana;
Ryan Zimmerman is 5-for-16 with a HR and 4 RBI;
Christian Guzman is 8-for-16 with 1 RBI off Johan;
David Wright is 12-for-27 with 4 HR and 10 RBI off Livan since 2005;
Mike Jacobs is 4-for-12 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Hernandez;
Jeff Francoeur is 5-for-13 with 1 HR and 2 RBI;
Henry Blanco, Luis Castillo, Jason Bay and Alex Cora each hit over .333 off Livan.
There are a surprisingly large number of offensive numbers to consider, especially on Washington's side. Johan is a beast, and I'd never advocate backing Livan, but perhaps peek at the Over, or the underdog RL.
Dodgers @ Marlins (-130) with a total of 9
Manny Ramirez has a homer in 3 AB off Sanchez with 2 RBI;
Ronnie Belliard is 2-for-5 and Russ Martin is 2-for-4 off Sanchez.
Considering Sanchez held the Dodgers to 1 run in 6 innings in his career against them, this isn't much of a price to pay on the vastly superior starter. Still, that Marlins pen is a scary sight. Tiny lean to Florida, and tiny lean to the Under.
Cubs @ Reds (-130) with a total of 9.5
Jay Bruce is 1-for-2 off Gorzelanny with a HR;
Orlando Cabrera and Scott Rolen are each 2-for-5.
We don't know enough about Mike Leake to make a play, here, but the fact that he's a -130 favorite tells you oddsmakers think he'll throw the ball just fine. Pass on the side, here, and a look at the Under, since we'll get the key number of 9 right now.
Phillies (-185) @ Astros with a total of 7.5
Ryan Howard is batting .421 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Oswalt;
Brian Schneider is 4-for-9 off Oswalt with 1 HR and 2 BRI;
Raul Ibanez is a simple 2-for-5 off Roy Oswalt, but someone to watch;
Carlos Lee is 1-for-3 off Halladay with a HR and 3 RBI;
Roy Oswalt is 6-1, 3.23 ERA against Philadelphia.
Oswalt has solid career numbers against Philly, but Houston is offensively inept, and I don't know how healthy Oswalt truly is. I would look at the Under, and maybe the underdog RL if oddsmakers truly feel this game is staying near 7.5.
Padres @ Rockies (-235) with a total of 9
Adrian Gonzalez has homered twice off Jimenez, but is batting just .211 off him;
Jon Garland is 1-0, 2.63 ERA against the Rockies;
Carlos Gonzalez is 7-for-11 off Garland;
Todd Helton is 4-for-6 off Garland, and Melvin Mora is 6-for-20.
Coors Field is the X-factor here, as Garland has been decent against a large portion of the Rockies lineup, and Jimenez is a budding superstar. I don't like the sides, but I think if these guys can get through 6+ innings, the Under might be a decent look.
Braves @ Giants (-200) with a total of 7
Brian McCann is 6-for-16 off Lincecum;
Travis Ishikawa is 3-for-5 off Kawakami, and Aaron Rowand is 2-for-3.
Tim Lincecum is 5-1, 2.72 ERA against the Braves.
The Giants should win this game, but that total of 7 makes me think Kawakami throws well, too. Be careful here, is my best advice, since this one might end up closer than folks think. I don't think there's a good bet in this game.
Pirates @ Diamondbacks (-200) with a total of 10
There is absolutely no information to go off, here, other than that Jackson faced the Pirates many moons back, and these guys have a total of 13 AB against him. The Diamondbacks will probably win this game, and again, no real promising-looking wagers to come out of this contest, other than a potential look at the Under.
Cardinals (-140) @ Brewers with a total of 8
Felipe Lopez is 7-for-18 off Randy Wolf;
Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols are each 3-for-10 off Wolf;
Brendan Ryan is 3-for-5 in limited action of Wolf;
Prince Fielder is 4-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Carpenter;
Craig Counsell is 3-for-10 with 1 RBI.
Randy Wolf is a serviceable starter with decent career numbers against the Cards, but St. Louis is one bad team, and they've started the year hot. If you can get Carp or Wainwright below -150 NOT against another staff ace, you have to at least consider it. Lean to Cards. No lean on the total, as St. Louis could score 8 or 5, and might win either way.
American League
Indians @ Tigers (-215) with a total of 8.5
Carlos Guillen is batting .417 off Westbrook;
Brandon Inge is batting .348 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Westbrook;
Magglio Ordonez is batting .364 with 2 HR and 6 RBI;
Ramon Santiago is 5-for-7 off Westbrook.
Verlander has actually had some issues with Cleveland in his career, but most of the Indians that hit him hard aren't on the Indians any more. Hafner and Sizemore each have 2 HR off Verlander, and Peralta has 1 HR, but none hit for a high average. This game is a wash to me on the side, maybe a peek at the Over, though Comerica Park plays to the Under.
Blue Jays @ Orioles (-140) with a total of 9
Lyle Overbay is 5-for-13 with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Kevin Millwood;
John Buck is 7-for-16 with 6 RBI off Milwood;
Aaron Hill is 6-for-19, Alex Gonzalez is 2-for-6;
Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are each 2-for-3 off Millwood;
Nick Markakis is 9-for-18 with 5 HR and 6 RBI off Marcum - holy moly!
Miguel Tejada is 6-for-13 with 3 HR and 7 RBI;
Adam Jones is 3-for-10 off Marcum.
Tons of offensive fireworks potentially on display, here, as Marcum has an ERA of 6.04 against Baltimore, and Millwood an ERA of 5.33 against Toronto. If the bullpens give up 3 runs, we should hit an Over. This actually has the potential to be our first total of the season.
Yankees @ Rays (-135) with a total of 9
Derek Jeter is 12-for-30 off Shields with 1 HR and 5 RBI since 2005;
Robinson Cano is a blistering 11-for-23 with 2 HR and 6 RBI;
Nick Johnson is 2-for-5 off Shields, as is Marcus Thames;
A.J. Burnett is 11-4, 2.77 ERA lifetime against Tampa bay;
Carl Crawford is 12-for-36 off Burnett since '05, but no power numbers;
Evan Longoria is 8-for-25 with 1 HR off Burnett;
James Shields is 1-7 lifetime against New York.
A.J. Burnett has been surprisingly good against Tampa, and I'm honestly a little surprised at how the odds are adjusted for James Shields. I can't help but lean just slightly to the juggernaut Yanks here. I also like the Under, if but barely.
Twins @ White Sox (-130) with a total of 8.5
Denard Span is 10-for-20 off Buehrle with 2 HR and 5 RBI;
Delmon Young is batting .364 off Buerhle with 2 HR and 2 RBI;
Brendan Harris is batting .344 with 1 HR and 5 RBI;
A.J. Pierzynski is 12-for-26 off Blackburn since 2005;
Alexei Ramirez is 8-for-19 off Blackburn;
Carlos Quentin is 5-for-16 with a HR off the Twins starter.
Blackburn has just a 3.38 lifetime ERA against Chicago, so this isn't a bad spot for Minnesota, though I happen to think this game could be a battle like the previous two. The Twins might very well sweep the Sox, but I'd prefer to look at the Under.
Red Sox (-125) @ Royals with a total of 9
Kevin Youkilis is 7-for-13 with 1 HR and 4 RBI off Meche;
Dustin Pedroia is 6-for-11 off Meche;
Big Papi is 7-for-18 with 3 HR and 6 RBI against Gil Meche.
I trust Meche about as far as I can throw him, while his career ERA against the Red Sox is a reasonable 4.26, I don't see Boston losing this finale. That price on the Red Sox is tempting, but it may need some more research. Tiny lean to Boston, no lean on the total.
Mariners @ Rangers (-160) with a total of 9
Franklin Gutierrez is 4-for-10 with 3 RBI off Feldman;
Julio Borbon is 3-for-4 off Snell in limited action;
Vlad Guerrero is 2-for-5 off Snell, and Chris Davis is 2-for-3.
Scott Feldman had a ton of success against the Mariners last year, and they're not really hitting this season. Snell has looked good in his last few months of baseball, and I'm inclined to think the Under has some legs here, though I don't like either side all that much.
Athletics @ Angels (-140) with a total of 9
Eric Patterson is 4-for-5 off Saunders with 2 RBI;
Mark Ellis is batting .308 since '05 off Saunders with 2 HR and 7 RBI;
Erick Aybar is 6-for-14 off Braden;
Mike Napoli is 4-for-9 with a HR off Braden.
Make no mistake, the Angels are slumping, and Saunders didn't look good at all in his first start, but something about this game makes me think the Angels find a way to get a win on Sunday, but not enough to make it a play. I like the Under just a bit.
Diamond Trends - Sunday
By Vince Akins
Athletics at Angels – The Angels are 13-1 since September 02, 2006 when Joe Saunders starts after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $1295 The Angels are 12-1 since August 22, 2006 when Joe Saunders starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $1135
Phillies at Astros – The Astros are 14-2 since October 17, 2004 when Roy Oswalt starts at home when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $1055
Cardinals at Brewers – The Brewers are 14-3 since August 23, 2005 as a home dog when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $1420
Pirates at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 13-1-1 OU since May 13, 2004 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $1195 when playing the over. The Diamondbacks are 9-0 OU since August 23, 2005 as a home 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a favorite for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.
Braves at Giants – The Giants are 13-1 since August 17, 2008 as a favorite after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1125 The Giants are 14-1 since June 01, 2008 when Tim Lincecum starts as a home 140+ favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1230
Nationals at Mets – The Mets are 10-0 OU since September 26, 2007 as a 200+ favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $1000 when playing the over.
Blue Jays at Orioles – The Blue Jays are 9-0 OU since August 05, 2009 when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.
Yankees at Rays – The Yankees are 15-1 since September 19, 2007 after shutting out their opponent and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1375 The Rays are 11-1 OU since September 02, 2004 as a favorite after being shutout for a net profit of $1000 when playing the over. The Rays are 0-9 since August 26, 2008 when James Shields starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1170 when playing against.
Padres at Rockies – The Rockies are 11-1 since May 06, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts as a 140+ favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $945
Red Sox at Royals – The Royals are 1-13 since June 29, 2008 at home and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $1295 when playing against.
Indians at Tigers – The Indians are 0-13 since September 03, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1300 when playing against.
Twins at White Sox – The White Sox are 10-0 since May 16, 2004 when Mark Buehrle starts at home after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start at home for a net profit of $1030 The White Sox are 15-2 since April 18, 2008 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $1330 The Twins are 2-13 OU since May 06, 2008 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last four games for a net profit of $1090 when playing the under. The White Sox are 0-10 OU since June 21, 2004 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.